June 13th, 2009

...now browsing by day

 

Overview of the foreign exchange market 04.06.2009

Saturday, June 13th, 2009

Quotations

euro to the dollar this morning, adjusted upward after yesterday's decline to the support of 1.4100 /30. It is possible that operators FX otygryvayut in this case, the fact that the last five sessions of the European Central Bank closing for a net market appreciation of the EUR /USD on the day of the meeting of the ECB and after him the next trading day.

however, worth noting that the likelihood of mitigating the economic positions of leadership in financial EMC, including - Monetary stimulate the economy, the recent increases.

According to yesterday's information, France would seek relief from the EU fiscal discipline to the euro. Now only 13 of the 16 euro zone countries can meet the budget deficit not exceeding 3% of GDP. At the same time adhering to deadlines set by the European Commission eliminate the deficit is likely to slow the economic recovery in Europe. According to Finance Minister K. Lagarde of France, it is necessary to alleviate the requirements for fiscal discipline to the countries of the eurozone, so that they focus on preserving jobs ratherthan according to the paper standards. According to European media, the matter will be discussed at a meeting of finance ministers of the EU early next week.

Meanwhile, in the United States seems to have evolved in the opposite process. B. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke yesterday in his speech called on Congress and the Administration of U.S. President B. Obama did not hesitate to start developing a strategy to reduce the American budget deficit. According to Mr. Bernanke, implementing measures to counter a recession and support financial stability, strengthening the confidence of markets, we as a nation, must simultaneously plan for now is how we will restore its fiscal balance. Characteristically, a few days earlier the U.S. Reserve System, has decided to tighten the conditions for granting credit in the American sector of Abbreviations problematic Asset (TARP). Click to continue »

Posted in Reviews and ideas | No Responses »

Overview of the foreign exchange market 08.06.2009

Saturday, June 13th, 2009

These labor-market United States - which last week were valued as the most popular investor information - were the result significantly better than experts predicted. Number of jobs in sectors outside of agriculture in America, May, TG decreased by 345 to 000 expected by analysts, on average, reduce this figure to 521 000 and revised from - 539 to 000 - 504 000 values of this indicator in the previous month.

Nevertheless, the relatively high prices of risky assets such relatively favorable statistics support in the end did not have. Against this background rate EUR /USD, testing on Friday evening near the point of resistance 1.4270 /00, to today's opening session of the European down to 1,3940.

Against the background of the information coming into the last of the countries of Eastern Europe, the market seems to be more oriented in their assessments of the risks associated with the budgetary problems of the EU and its periphery.

Prime Minister of Latvia V. Dombrovskis on Friday said that the issue of devaluation of the currency of the country was not discussed during a meeting of representatives of the IMF and the European Union with the leadership of the Latvian Cabinet of Ministers. Last week, the Government of Latvia during the extraordinary meeting, approved an amendment to the state budget in 2009, providing for a budget deficit of 9.2% of GDP in the fall of the economy by 18% (g /d). Against this background, short-term lending rates in Latvian lats exceeded 100% per annum, reflecting a sharp increase in market expectations of devaluation of the currency of that country.
Also on Friday the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko has ordered the transfer to Gazprom $ 475 million the money was obtained through the additional issue of the Ukrainian hryvnia.

According to information provided to the market last Wednesday, France will seek relief from the EU fiscal discipline to the euro. As is known, only 13 of the 16 euro zone countries can meet the budget deficit not exceeding 3% of GDP. At the same time adhering to deadlines set by the European Commission eliminate the deficit is likely to slow the economic recovery in Europe. According to Finance Minister K. Lagarde of France, it is necessary to alleviate the requirements for fiscal discipline to the countries of the eurozone, so that they focus on preserving jobs rather than according to the paper standards. According to European media, the matter will be discussed at a meeting of EU finance ministers earlier this week.

parallel with the information in the foreign exchange segment has increased the likelihood of discussion of the application of the Swiss National Bank of quantitative easing policy in connection with the collapse of national CPI index to mark four decades of minimal and fairly rapid deterioration of the GDP of the country against the backdrop of weakening its performance net - exports. Click to continue »

Posted in Reviews and ideas | No Responses »

Breath of the crisis: Moscow became worse to eat and dress

Saturday, June 13th, 2009

Financial crisis leads not simply to reduce the purchasing activity of the population, but also to the economy to meet basic human needs - food and clothing. According to a poll conducted by Yuri Levada Analytical Center, Moscow had become worse to eat and dress.

answer assess how your family feeds? assess how your family to dress?
2000 2007 2009 2000 2007 2009
good /rather good 64 82 78 54 75 70
rather bad /bad 33 15 20 42 21 25
difficult to answer 3 3 2 4 4 5

In addition, the Russians have become more rational approach to the issue of acquisition of food and switch to cheaper brands, there is another sociological study conducted by Romir. A typical example of this trend is the market situation pasta. It noted the backlog of growth of expenditures from price increases, which is the first indication of mass shift of consumers to cheaper brands. This clearly confirms the analysis of changes in the consumption of products of different brands. From September 2007 to February 2009 average price of 1 kg of pasta, you get families in the cities of Russia with a population of 500 thousand people or more, grew by 48% and reached 51 rubles 60 kopecks. However, the average cost of pasta one household per month increased by only 35%. In doing so, nor the average amount of purchases per month (1,2-1,4 kg depending on the season), or its frequency (about 1,5-1,6 times a month) over the same period have not changed.

Another trend - the return of Russians to the table of products such as kefir, mayonnaise, cottage cheese, say sociologists Romir. In addition, drinking yoghurt, beer, juice and coffee, which in the post-Soviet period virtually replaced traditional food, during the crisis period using the lower demand among Russians. For example, for drinking yoghurt reduction, compared with the autumn period, amounted to 15-20% of households for beer - 9-12% for the juice - 15-16% for coffee - 2-4%.

Curiously, the number of households buying brandy and cognac, remained stable, while the average monthly volume of purchases to 1 household in January of this year fell to about 0.5 liters instead of last year's 0.75 liters. So this, even the Soviet tradition, remains unchanged, but the savings comes from reducing the volume of consumption - one of the main ways of reducing the cost of food in times of crisis, and believe in Romir.

In the third study, the company has made regular MAR Consult measure attitudes of Muscovites to the impact of financial crisis. The result has been obtained comparative data on the dynamics of the indicator. The first phase of the study was conducted 1 February 2009, the second measure was held on 1 May 2009. Data collection was carried out by the survey among the inhabitants of Moscow at the age of 25 to 55 years. The survey involved 450 respondents.

A quarter of Muscovites (25%) feel strongly influenced by the crisis, this figure has changed little over three months (24%). In contrast, the strong increase in the number of Moscow, where the crisis has some impact from 38% in February to 64% in May 2009. This significantly reduced the number of people on which the crisis was not affected from 31% to 5%.

The strong decline of those whom the crisis has no effect, consistent with the data of official statistics. The index of consumer confidence, calculated Rosstat aggregate reflects consumer expectations fell in the I quarter of 2009, prior to (-35%). In comparison with IV quarter 2008. index fell by 15 percentage points, with the I quarter of 2008. - By 35 percentage points. A similar level of the index was observed in the IV quarter of 1999 (-35 %).

Do you think that is being done in countries are now at large in the right direction, or you think that countries moving mislead?

; may.08 iyun.08 Jul .08 avg.08 sen.08 okt.08 noya.08 Dec .08 yanv.09 fev.09 mar.09 apr.09
things go in the right direction 59 57 55 55 61 54 49 43 43 41 41 43
country is on wrong path 27 25 31 29 24 27 30 40 34 40 39 36
No response 14 18 14 16 15 19 22 18 23 19 20 21

Source: Levada-Center

Deteriorating living conditions and opportunities to meet the basic needs of naturally affects the level of political optimism. As Aristotle said, man - a political animal.

Top events affecting Russian market

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

Event Rating; Forecast
MACROECONOMICS
overall situation in world stock markets C
The macroeconomic situation in the USA D
Macroeconomic situation in Russia B
POLICY
In Moscow, the first formal US-Russian talks on strategic offensive weapons C
COMMODITY MARKETS
level of world oil prices P
level of world prices for metals P
SECTORAL AND CORPORATE NEWS
Surgutneftegaz may pay dividends for 2008 in the amount of 1,326 rubles. on one preference, and 0.6 rubles. per common share C
Severstal has attracted a loan of $ 60 million
   		In
Standard Poor's placed the ratings of TNK-BP in the list CreditWatch with positive outlook P

 

NOTE:

  1. most powerful influence on the market have an event with A-rated events with top D on our scale, have little influence.

     

  2. Sections Macroeconomics and commodity markets in column 2 in the brackets can be specified rating the previous day.

     

  3. Arrow down in the column 3 points to the likely negative impact on the market, the arrow up - the positive /neutral.

     

Investment

background - neutral Click to continue »

Posted in Scenario and forecasts | No Responses »

Asian markets Wednesday morning, go up due to commodity paper companies

Saturday, June 13th, 2009

European stock platform also came under the influence of confounding factors. Statistics from Germany, show the decline of industrial production in excess of expectations, dovlela on the markets, as well as the previously reported news that the German retailer Arcandor has announced the commencement of bankruptcy proceedings. However, for shares of technology companies is a better day after the U.S. company Texas Instruments raised its forecast on the future results in the II quarter. In addition, for the same sector, an additional positive development was the agreement between TomTom and Apple. Sufficient confidence on Tuesday felt the paper energy industries, which contributed to oil quotes, closing above $ 70. Another take-off price of black gold have helped to forecast the U.S. Department of Energy,which expects growth in oil prices, as well as newly prosevshy dollar.

U.S. stock sites continued their multidirectional movement. Shares of technology companies finished the day in the black thanks to Texas Instruments. Click to continue »

Posted in News International Markets | No Responses »

Following Tuesday MICEX index value of 1113.83 point, which is 0.58% below the previous day's closing

Saturday, June 13th, 2009

Foreign Exchange Market . On the basis of bidding the dollar in the calculations Today increased by 8.61 kopecks. (0.276%) to 31.2770 rubles. the dollar. Bidding opened at the rate of transaction 31.3125 rubles. the dollar. During the trading day the participants entered into the transaction in the range 31.1919-31.3500 rubles. the dollar. Last transaction is concluded at the rate of 31.3100 rubles. the dollar.

Trades on the dollar in the calculations tomorrow open transaction at the rate of 31.3100 rubles. the dollar. As a result of trades on the MICEX 11:30 dollar settlement Tomorrow The Bank of Russia set the official ruble-dollar rate of 31.2637. During the trading day the participants entered into the transaction in the interval 31.1025-31.3500 rub. the dollar.

Last transaction is concluded at the rate of 31.1750 rubles. the dollar. On the basis of bidding the dollar in the calculations tomorrow has decreased by 1.98 kopecks. (0.0633%) to 31.2548 rubles. the dollar.

dollar volume of transactions in instruments increased by 2.9% to 9106.9 million, of which U.S. $ 5224.4 million (57.4% of turnover) had to swap transactions.

deals with the single European currency in the calculations today is in the range of 43.4400-43.6650 rub. for the euro. The last transaction was at the rate of 43.6400 rubles. for the euro. On the basis of the weighted average auction rate of the euro in the calculations Today has increased by 20.37 kopecks. (0.47%) to 43.5377 rubles. for the euro. Crednevzveshenny euro rate in the calculations tomorrow was 43.5279 rubles. for the euro (10.39 kopecks. or 0.239%). The last transaction was at the rate of 43.6262 rubles. for the euro. The total volume of transactions in euro instruments grew by 1.09% to 949.8 million (9.3% of the foreign exchange market).

At the MICEX currency market concluded 5482 transactions on all instruments, totaling U.S. $ 10200 million, which is 2.8% more than the previous trading day.

Government Securities Market . The volume of trades in the market of public debt amounted to 23748.9 million rubles., Including the amount of secondary trades - 479.8 million rubles., The volume of repo transactions mezhdilerskogo - 9569.1 mln., The volume of direct REPO transactions - 13700 million rubles. Value price index RGBI to close - 114.88 paragraph (-0.07%), index of full income RGBITR - 198.18 paragraph (-0.04%), index returns RGBY - 11.89% (0.07 percentage point).

On the secondary market has become a leader in the trading bonds SU25064, on which the transactions took place at 371.7 million rubles. mDohodnost most liquid securities comprised: SU25064 - 12.03% (0.09 percentage points), SU25063 - 11.74% (0.06 percentage points), SU46017 - 11.42% (0.05 percentage points), SU46020 - 11.38% (0.04 p. section), SU25061 - 8.86% (0.13 percentage points), SU25057 - 8.49% (0.8 percentage points).

market shares . At the end of the trading day value of the MICEX index was 1113.83 item, which is 0.58% below the previous closing day.

MICEX Oil and Gas Index - 2135,9 (-0,96%), MICEX Power Index - 1933,87 (0,56%), MICEX Telecommunication Index - 1205,49 (1,715%), MICEX Metals and Mining Index - 2516,62 (1,971%), MICEX Manufacturing Index - 1141,69 (-0,568%), MICEX Financials Index - 3455,65 (0,876%).

MICEX Large Cap Index - 1804,94 (-0,556%), MICEX Mid Cap Index - 1581,36 (0,768%), MICEX Start Cap Index - 2517,36 (2,328%).

decreased quotes LUKOIL ordinary shares (-2.42%), Rosneft (-1.73%), Gazpromneft (-1.22%), JSC VTB Bank (-0.47%), GMKNorNik (-0.41%), Rostel-AO (-0.21 %).

The volume of trades in the market shares of the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 110.29 billion rubles. (3549.01 million), of which 53.42 billion rubles. (1718.95 million) were in secondary trading, 56.87 billion rubles. (1830.06 million) - for repo transactions.

market of corporate and regional bond . At the endof the day the trading volume of corporate and regional bonds on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 94.3 billion rubles. (3036.1 million), of which 21.8 billion rubles. (701.6 million dollars) were in secondary trades, 72.5 billion rubles. (2334.6 million) - for repo transactions.

Decreased yield bonds Novsib 4ob at 4.54 PM, Bashkort5ob - by 2.62 percentage points, Kazan06ob - by 0.96 percentage points, VlgTlkVT-4 - by 0.9 percentage points, FSK UES-05 -- at 0.68 PM, RosselhB 3 - by 0.15 percentage points, Mos.obl.9v - by 0.04 percentage points, MGor54-on - at 0.02 PM Even yield bonds KubNiva 01 at 0.01 PM, UrSI ser07 - at 0.35 PM

Index CBI CP as a result of the day was 86.87, paragraph, increased by 0.13% on the value of the previous trading day, the index MBI CP - 84.25 point, falling to 0.04% on the value of the previous trading day.

market standard contracts . The total volume of trades amounted to 2.92 billion rubles. or 89,122 contracts. The volume of open positions - 3,393,487 contracts (U.S. $ 3392.61 million).

futures USD: the volume of trades - 2.82 billion rubles., the amount of open positions - 3,391,899 contracts (3391.9 million U.S. dollars). Futures EUR: the volume of open positions - 21 contract (0.03 million dollars). MICEX Index futures: The volume of trades - 78.72 million rubles., The amount of open positions - 85 contracts (9.49 million EUR).. Futures on Gazprom: The volume of trades - 17.75 million rubles., The amount of open positions - 352 contracts (6.24 million EUR).. Futures on the bank: the volume of trades - 7.21 million rubles., The amount of open positions - 1,130 contracts (5.55 million EUR)..

market for grain futures . The volume of transactions amounted to 190.49 million rubles. (36.8 tons). The volume of open positions - 22.02 million rubles. (4.3 tons).

Authorize and appreciate the story;;

Your grade will be the first!


Analyst Ratings

Click to continue »

Posted in News and Comments | No Responses »

Paper oil and gas sector in today's auction will try to become the engine of the market

Saturday, June 13th, 2009

Following the consolidation above the level of 1100, today the market will try to go up against the backdrop of rising oil prices.

Yesterday's auction at the Russian sites have opened growth, which quickly turned to the declining levels of the closing Monday. Then the market moved in the lateral movement between the levels of 1110 - 1120 on the MICEX index. In liquid securities, there was multidirectional closing. Better market traded securities Sberanka, gaining 1.69%. Also on the positive territory shares finished the day regional telecom. The leader of growth have become preferred shares Rostelekom, where growth was 11%. Worse than the market had been Tatneft (-3.82%), Surgutneftegaz (-2.93%) and Lukoil (-2.42%). At the end of the trading the MICEX index dropped 0.6%.

U.S. markets closed, a small increase in the major indexes. The leader was the index of NASDAQ, which trades on the basis of added 0,96%. S P500 rose by 0,35%, Dow Jones finished the day at the previous close.

Oil quotes moved to our opening level of 70 dollars per barrel on expectations of reduction in oil supplies in the United States. Against the backdrop of this market has ignored reports of increased volumes of oil stored in tankers in April doubled to 5 million tons.

Today, we expect a positive opening of our trade areas against the backdrop of oil quotes and futures of U.S. indexes. In doing so, leaders are likely to be oil and gas sector. In the future, we expect the continuation of the lateral motion. Unlikely that market forces have enough to pass levels 1140 - 1160. Towards the end of bidding will be the macroeconomic statistics on the trade balance for April, and stocks of petroleum products in the United States.

Authorize and appreciate the story;;

Your grade will be the first!


Analyst Ratings

Click to continue »

Posted in News and Comments | No Responses »

Today, under pressure from retailers bivalyutnaya basket went down again, otygryvaya part of yesterday's backlog

Saturday, June 13th, 2009

Yesterday ruble rate in the money market was quite high by the standards of recent times. The morning opening in the vicinity of 6.5-7.0% gave way to rising levels of 7.0-7.5% in the region of 11-12 hours of the day, after which the market has adjusted a bit, and the closure members in the range of 6.5-7.0%. In the segment of foreign exchange rate swaps were originally above - the opening was held in the region of 7.0-8.0% and between 11 and 12 rubles a clock value reaches 9% or even slightly higher. In the afternoon, a little excitement улегся, but closed it still does not lower - in the range of 7.0-8.0%.

Yesterday brought the decline in cash balances on deposits of credit institutions, they fell from RUR538.3 billion to RUR478.0 billion, correspondent with the grown up with RUR387.9 billion to RUR408.6 billion debt principal tools Central Bank refinancing has not changed.

Yesterday's placement means the Central Bank for 5 weeks have passed without the buzz. Participants received RUR13.3 billion of the proposed RUR25 billion at an average rate of 14.07%. The minimum bid auction was 13.50%, it also became a rate cut, which means: the Central Bank approved all submitted applications.

Yesterday in the foreign exchange market again took place without the participation of the Bank of Russia. Cost bivalyutnoy baskets ranged RUR36.7-36.87 - far from those levels, where the regulator intervened in the bidding for the last time - but it is slightly lower than the closing Monday.

some embarrassment in the ranks of participants in the foreign exchange market yesterday to spread the words of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who, speaking at the Interstate Council of EurAsEC, said that Russian authorities will not allow sharp fluctuations in the ruble and, among other things, adding that the national currency has strengthened more than the expected power. Many may have viewed his remarks as a signal that more domestic currency price will not be. Obviously, this could lead to the closure of long positions on the ruble and the opening brief. The process we have, and so is likely seen in recent days, but yesterday he could intensify. As a result, this led to a rather uncertain behaviorof the ruble, despite the fact that currencies of many developing countries in price.

Today, the morning market for a few quiet, and under pressure from retailers bivalyutnaya basket went down again, otygryvaya part of yesterday's backlog. As the situation develops further, we are still not clear: like the monetary authorities have previously said they intended to smooth the volatility of the course, but not to resist market trends, however, and they have the dollar in less than 30 rubles (why is not mainly focus Brokers - bivalyutnoy basket), as revealed recently, a source of concern. How do the authorities, if the American currency will continue to fall in price relative to the euro, remains anyone's guess.

Authorize and appreciate the story;;

Your grade will be the first!


Analyst Ratings

Click to continue »

Posted in News and Comments | No Responses »

The Russian market was closed on Friday in «green belt» against the backdrop of the continuing growth of oil quotations

Saturday, June 13th, 2009

05.06.09 20:32 ;
  Outside the background before the opening of Russia's bid on Friday formed a positive. Major U.S. stock indices, after analysts advised buying shares of the bank, showed the fifth over the past six days, a positive result, retailers peresiliv drop caused by the data on the reduction of sales in May. As a result, Dow Jones increased by 0,86%, S P500 at 1,14%, NASDAQ gained 1.32%. Asian sites demonstrated the volatile dynamics of the morning. The significance of the Japanese Nikkei index rose for the opening of the Russian sites to 0.81%. China's Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.3%.

As a result, the Russian market opens with a large «gepom» up, the MICEX index rose by 3.43%. By 12.30 Moscow time the MICEX index added 2.63%, at 1149.98 points. RTS Index at that time was 1145.33 points (3.3%).

Most of «blue chips» by mid-day trading in «green belt». Better market looked WGCs paper. As analysts predicted, the demand seen in the actions of «RusGidro» (5,9%) against the backdrop of plans for the company to get listed on the LSE. A little later, started the game on the closing morning gepov shares Tatneft, and Surgutneftegaz VTB quickly descended to the levels of Thursday. The most actively deshevel banking sector: Bank within days lost 3.38%, VTB dropped in price on 1,81%.

almost flush with the market moving today, the oil and gas sector - the main chips added 2-3%. «Quotes of oil - again at a maximum since the beginning of the year and picked up close to the mark in the $ 70 a barrel. It seems that investors who chose to record profits in the Russian papers in the middle of the week were wrong. The global rise in prices on commodity markets, and hence the rally in Russian stocks, continues », - noted Yury Volov, Senior Analyst, Bank of Moscow.

Metallurgical Sector looked better against the backdrop of market transactions Rio and BHP: NLMK (6.2%), MMC Norilsk Nickel (3.2%), CMI (2.9%), Severstal (2.5%). Click to continue »

Posted in Main News | No Responses »