sally from the stables

Russia

The Russian stock market at yesterday's auction demonstrated the utmost determination bulls to fight for their ideals and beliefs to the end, moreover, monetary liquidity has on their side: the RTS index rose by 0,47%, MICEX index rose by 1 , 98%. The volume of trades in the stock market section of the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 167.3 million rubles, or 61.2 million, when viewed on an index, the RTS stock exchange natorgovala to $ 3 billion, of which $ 1.7 billion was accounted for by the term market instruments.

An auction was a very interesting one: the expected break-down was quickly redeemed, then for two hours could be observed hot battle Exchange representatives of the family of mammals, after which, supported by rising energy prices, bulls have moved into attack and crumpled protective Order bear. Stocks simply did not give cash to deploy corrective movement, investors are using any less important a reason for the purchases - while commodity markets are at current levels, a serious depth of the fall to say no.

Europe

Old World Index closed raznonapravleno, the average change was -0.1% (index DJ STOXX 600). The reasons can be priplesti following: conflicting data macroeconomic statistics (optimistic expectations, the reality is not so simple) and yet another batch of negative news from the financial sector (as zemlitsy not drop into the abyss, it is still smaller than would be).

America

New World Index fell by 1,1-1,3%, - a neutral macroeconomic statistics has not been able to counter the negative news from the corporate sector. In addition, the further, the increasing number of investors starts to chafe because of technical perekuplennosti.

raw materials, currency, etc.

Industrial metals at auction in London continue to fall, but so far all fit into the framework of corrective movements after the upgrade maximum calendar year.

gold came near the mark of $ 930, came with a caution to the U.S. dollar, which yesterday agreed to a little pripast in relation to a basket of currencies. I have already said that gold does not make sense to analyze in isolation from the global reserve (some time ago there was noticeable desync, but now everything has returned to his own interests) and on the last bovine I am of the opinion, in the sense that the expectation of strengthening in the short term.

Baltic Dry Index rising fifth consecutive session - dvadtsatiprotsentny failure downstream of local maxima practically localized.

Oil slightly cheaper as compared to yesterday: Brent futures traded on the mark a little above $ 70.5, to mark WTI futures are about $ 71,5.

Statistics and Reporting

Today is expected to fairly saturated in terms of the news day: in the 12-30 (Moscow time) published the minutes of meetings of the Bank of England, and data on unemployment in the UK, 13-00 (Moscow time) went on the trade balance of the euro, in 16-30 (ICN) published by the Consumer Price Index and the U.S. balance of payments, in the 17-00 (Moscow time) will address heads of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, at 18-30 (Moscow time) went on the oil and petroleum products (the consensus expects to reduce, I hope to preserve growing trend, but taking into account the correlation between forecasts and the fact at the level of 0.27, listen to the views of analysts on the subject, I would not recommend).

Outlook

I look forward to the start of the trading on the Russian stock market to break down within the limits of 1-1,5%, due to negative external background. In fact, the ambient background is quite neutral, it is in relation to yesterday closing of the Russian market it negative - given this fact, we can expect an attempt to ransom the gap. The outcome of the confrontation at the moment does not depend on us, but again the situation in overseas trading floors and in the commodity market. If it does not happen a serious fall, the high monetary liquidity provided by non-residents will not give us the market is seriously prosest.

Short positions can not change the situation in favor of sellers, because they [the positions] have a limited impact on the market. First, the shorts are not institutional investors, but mostly physics, which due to a number of features are unable to move the market (dispersion, vulnerability to outside influences, etc.), especially if the fight is against the big players. Secondly, the removal of restrictions is more psychological impact than the actual value.

In general we have that day, the point of bifurcation - a strong movement can occur in what direction you want. I am inclined to believe that in the medium term the market will be lower, and this despite the efforts of the tendency to asset inflation and blagostny optimism of analysts and experts. May not always have to explain this view, but the amount of knowledge about the market is in a sense of evil.

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The Russian market again showed resistance to bear attacks. After a slight reduction in the morning of Tuesday, the indexes have gone up again. RTS - on 0,47%, MICEX - to 1.98%, both indices close to 1100 points. In the best performing - Paper Sberbank (4.6%), VTB (4.1%). RTAs - MTS (3.7%) and FGC UES (4.4%). Shares of RBC went up by 30.2%, against a background of increased trading activity. Shares Surgutneftegaz cheaper in the RTN at 7.3% on the MICEX rose in price by 1.6%. Support for the market as a whole have had oil prices during the session moves toward U.S. $ 72 /bar. (2.3%), positive makrostatistika the euro and the U.S., as well as signals from the world's stock markets.

Successful statistics eurozone countries led stock indices of the negative field in the weakly positive (index FTSE 0,3%). The U.S. indices on the basis of the session fell to 1,0 - 1,3%. Positive mood has been set at the opening of macroeconomic data, as well as commodity market conditions. Significant predictions of new homes rose in May (17.2% vs 7%), the number of permits issued for construction, increased by 4%. Industrial production for April fell by 1,1%, which coincided with expectations. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2%, with the forecast 0.6%. With the forecast growth in the value of 0,6%, in fact, it increased by only 0.2%. However, in the second half of the trading prices turned down. Sales increased at a desheveyuschey oil, expectations of new bankruptcies in the automotive and forecasts of analysts on the conclusion of the rally in stock markets.

Today, the Asian indices are mostly in the red zone, Nikkei index traded with an increase of 0.7% (9:45 PM EDT). Oil prices in the current show mixed trends, Futures WTI and Brent - at around 70.5 and 70.6 U.S. $ /bbl., Respectively.

Today, markets await data on unemployment rate in April (UK, 12.30), the CPI in May: 0.3% (U.S., 13.00), the current account surplus in 1Kv09, Oil and Petroleum Products (United States, 16:30 ). According to the API, commercial oil stocks in the United States for the period from 5 to 12 June 2009. declined by 1.26 million barrels., to 356.634 million barrels. At 18:30 will hear an address by U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke B. (United States). Following the closure of the Russian market of the U.S. administration of President B. Obama will submit a plan to modernize the system of control and regulation of the financial sector and increasing the powers of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

As the Russian market motivated by means of Western players, the overall mood of the international financial system largely determines the direction of movement of the market during the current week. The threat to growth comes from the factor of competition of cheaper markets, as well as the possible sale of the shares of the portfolio Vnesheconombank.

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banks last week suggested moving to the same rules for restructuring and conversion of foreign currency loans in the hryvnia. June 3, the NBU adopted its recommendations, which most financiers viewed as a direct order and had already begun to revise their proposals to clients. According to the National Bank, first of all you need to provide incentives for the mortgage and credit issued for the production. Such sensitivity of bankers is one explanation: natsbankovskih rules for the implementation of a number of them rely poblazhek.

mortgage in priority

Banks began offering extension of the deadline for payment, credit and recalculation of the transfer of loans in foreign currency hryvnia even November-December 2008, increased the demand for such benefits was recorded in the first quarter of this year. Finuchrezhdeniya offers different conditions of revising the existing credit agreements, depending on the ability of each individual bank. Resolution of the same bank number 328, appeared a week ago, bankers were asked to lead the restructuring program to a common denominator.

This document is not an accident. NBU asked the banks reporting on the restructuring program as of April 1, and ascertain the situation of late. and the decision was the result of studying all this information, - explained the Chief of the Department of Risk Management VAB Bank Elena Domuz .

Decree NBU banks are encouraged to set priorities to restructure loans. First place in the queue for the benefits brought ordinary citizens, blanking mortgage loans.

National Bank offered finuchrezhdeniyam to restructure mortgage loans only to borrowers who live in the purchased home, which does not exceed 110 square meters. m. The amount of monthly repayment of loans to be restructured to be more than 30% of monthly income customer, - told Deputy Chairman of the Bank Khreschatyk Irina Skirchuk.

even with the mortgage borrowers are companies that produce products (anyone without restrictions). Second place, according to the criteria of the central bank, is given credit, natural persons registered for treatment or completion of construction, debt that does not exceed 200 thousand UAH. And payments account for more than 30% of the borrower. In the third department Vladimir Stelmakh put all other bank loans.

According to a new document on the restructuring will be able to claim only those who designed their loans before October 1st, 2008 Such loans shall be classified no lower than Bank of class B: The cost of mortgage allows you to repay the loan, but payments on it did not exceed 50-80 % income of the borrower. Condition of service of such loans could not be worse than the level of good or weak: according to current regulations for natural persons are loans with a delay of 7-30 days, yurlits - in 7-90 days. At the same time provide a deferral of credits allowed to count only when the documents proving that the client is unable to extinguish the debt on the old schedule.
National Bank Trust

recommended to extend the primary term of the total contract is not longer than two years, and repayment of principal (the body of credit) - no more than a year. At the same time, the regulator advised not to charge customers a fee for the restructuring of loans, as well as fines, penalties and damages, charged at the time of the decision to convertor convert the loan. NBU intends to monitor the process of restructuring the loans, so they demanded to provide him with information about this activity until September 7th, 2009 fully calculate the costs of banks on it.

restructuring in exchange for the benefits

In exchange for compliance with all of these conditions suggested that central wards a number of benefits. The banks started the restructuring of loans, can increase the loss of 6% per month. That is, they are given an opportunity to stretch out in time to NBU regulations. I think this will finuchrezhdeniyam to optimize the formation of reserves, but because for them would be beneficial, - said Irina Skirchuk.
Also

financiers are allowed to raise one level in the category of borrowers in the re-hryvnia or restructured loans, loans if service is defined as good and the payments on the loan and interest over the body are carried out at least once a month. Click to continue »

MICEX Index younger at 1.55% on yesterday's closing value 1095r. Maximum growth occurs in the financial sector (1.88%), the maximum decrease observed in the manufacturing sector (-2.23%). The index of large capitalization grows at 1.8%, the average market capitalization - is losing 0.51%, a small market capitalization - no change.

The Central Bank of Russia took theinitiative in 2010 to allow the circulation of government securities, not only on the MICEX, but also for other exchanges.

The Ministry of Finance of Russia in 2010 is going to resume the practice of external borrowing, so the volume of loans for 2010 is planned in the amount of 10mlrd.doll.

The head of Sberbank G. Gref said that many Russian banks went bankrupt, which, however, does not lead to systemic problems in the industry. At the Sberbank, according to G. Gref, problems with capital is not expected.

June 9, OOO RN-Development has increased its stake in OAO NK Rosneft from 4.77% to 9.44%.

OAO Severstal plans to sell the plant Allenport, rospolozhenny in the United States. The transaction is scheduled in August 2009.

The August crude oil futures traded on NYMEX, rising to 1.97%, trading near 72.72 U.S. $ /barrel. September futures for the SP 500 index, traded on the CME, in the black at 0.19% and traded at U.S. $ 921.25

Today, there is a respite after yesterday's tumultuous downward. Current price levels in the region of 1100r. MICEX index, can be used to play for a fall in the shares of the first tier, because the probability of continuing the downward movement in the coming days, in my opinion, is high enough.

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Describing the situation on the Russian bid, it may be noted that in the morning the market remained in thought, choosing the direction of motion, and, finally, to make the right choice, slowly went up. On the one hand, to make a choice prevented mixed trend in global markets, in particular, American and Asian markets traded in the red, but Europe opened moderately positive. In addition, oil prices have again started to grow, exceeding U.S. $ 70 /barrel. An additional incentive for customers has become a positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States and the euro, leaving during the day.

favor of buying, investors focused their attention primarily on the actions of the commodity and the banking sector. The biggest demand prefy Sberbank whose growth rates have exceeded 7%. In neftyanke Demand has been fairly smooth - almost on all the pleadings.

While this optimism is still not a sustainable, however, with a great deal of probability it can be assumed that in the near future the market still has the potential to continue to slowly increase.

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Ukraine officially starts process of recapitalization of domestic banks. The state has overpaid for the control of the UGB, Rodovid the Bank and the Bank, Kiev, but is there any chance to return the money?

done. Last week the government finally decided to allocate 9.47 billion UAH. to replenish the capital of three banks. Among the lucky members of the first three groups of banking institutions in the classification of the NBU: the largest of the group - Ukrgasbank, 81.58% of which will belong to the state in exchange for 3.1 bln., A group of major banks represents Rodovid Bank, which received 2 , 81 bln. in exchange for 99.97%. The third representative from the category of medium-sized banks - Kiev - will receive assistance in the amount of 3,56 bln. for 99.93%.

According to a State participation in the capitalization of banks, capital finuchrezhdeny Cabinet plans to make the internal state loan bonds due in 2017-2019 years and the yield 9.5% per annum. It is still not determined the mechanism recapitalization to the end. It is anticipated that these lead banks appoint new managers.

According to some reports, they can become successful in the past but jobless now ex-chairman of the banking institutions. Remains unclear and the question when the banks will be able to get real money. According to Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko - as soon as their performance will be restored and they will be able to fulfill their obligations to clients. However, experts doubt that this could happen in the next six months.

 

Dear

purchase

acquired in the share of cost the state banks are not so cheap. And while analysts are hesitant to assess today finuchrezhdeniya based on the size of their capital on the first of April this year, the state acquired Ukrgasbank Rodovid and Bank of multipliers 2.5 and 2.3, respectively. The situation with the bank Kiev complex. According to the results of the first quarter of the bank's assets fell below its liabilities. For comparison: at the time the Russian VTB Bank bought the Mriya by a factor 1.6, and the Austrian Erste Groop acquired Ukrainian Prestige with multiplier 1.75.

Market participants do not currently recommend the use of the ratio of funds from the capital finuchrezhdeny. Indeed, over the past three years, the Ukrainian banks of the highest multipliers sales rolled up to the price at a discount. According to the Director of Analytical Department, Foyil Securities Agshin Mirzazade, today the question of revaluation or underestimating the banks do not. This is only the salvation of these three banks to enable them to survive the crisis and meet the demands of depositors.

Accordingly, the amount was calculated based on the needs of banks, rather than their market value. The current quotes on stocks and delivery Ukrgasbank Bank simply symbolic. A value in the current environment can be calculated, starting from the capital of the bank, less the expected losses and write-offs -- Notes Mirzazade. Apparently, the amount of losses and write-offs could reach 30%. And if the bank Kiev even with this pessimistic forecast is made of the funds will be sufficient, the Bank and UGB Rodovid may need to seek help again.

Thus, the total liabilities of bank Kiev to the legal and physical persons is 3,6 billion UAH. that can actually be blocked from the money. In Ukrgasbank Bank and Rodovid situation more complicated. Of the total commitments UkrGasBank clients received assistance of only 43%, Rodovid us the picture is not much better - state funds cover only half. In fact, it turns out that if even overpaid rekapitaliziruemye banks, public funds may be scarce, not to mention the effectiveness of their use. In fact, most of all, these funds would go to repay debt owed to clients. On the other hand, it is believed that the money should be a liquidity cushion in case the need to write-off bad loans. It is the second factor will be able to restore normal operation rekapitaliziruemyh finuchrezhdeny. However, judging by the statements of politicians, the probability of the use of funds for repayment of the deposits is still higher. Thus, the government infusion may be ineffective. Click to continue »