Oil not issue, America will not eat

Today external background again negative on the background of lower oil prices and Asian indices. However, if in the near future will shake the world markets is not a significant reduction in U.S. indices and the price of oil, you can count on the positive dynamics of prices. With oil prices around 70 $ /barrel. Russian market with cheap basic terms.

Gazprom Neft will publish consolidated financial results of the first quarter on June 18. Earlier, Rosneft and Lukoil gladdened market.

The share of Gazprom in the European market has declined in the first quarter to 16% in the summer of 2008 it reached 31%. However, even with all this negative Gazprom is very cheap on discounted cash flows and valuation multipliers. Perhaps, after the anticipated fall in prices the demand for Russian gas in Europe will increase.

The recommendations made by the Rosneft shareholders' meeting an amendment to the ordinance referred to the Council the right to approve the additional issue of up to 25%. The likelihood of new entry Rosneft to the capital market is very small. While the authorities might have painted a scheme transaction Rosneft - Surgut. Only about it until you know the market, or know only the chosen part of it.

North-West Telecom has published financial results of the first half of the International Accounting Standards. This is good news, because increases the transparency of business, however, benefit from reporting a bit. The company did not publish results for the same period a year earlier.

As laid Strategy, I see 2 version of events. Conservative, announced back in January, with a guide price Urals 41-45 $ /barrel and corridor index RTNs 900-1200 points. And more optimistic, based on the recent rally in commodity areas, and corridors 1300-1500 items on RTS index. Again, who do not want to risk - can safely sit out the summer in bonds, it is clear that only some companies believe that the debts of preference only cowards.

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Against the backdrop of the overall weakness of global stock pads are not an exception, and the Russian stock market. MICEX Index has covered the bottom of the channel in May with the opening and growth fell below the zero yield on 20-day trading positions (indicator IAD-20-1111 on). Monthly sliding MA21 (1095) are also unable to provide adequate support. Pressure on the Russian stock market quotes provided as lower oil prices and the weakening of the ruble to a basket of currencies.

Investors sold shares on the reassessment of risks. A hand came not only shares, but most commodity assets (metals, oil). Especially the aggression on the part of vendors have not yet been observed. This can be seen from the relatively low turnover of index SP500, and our stock markets.

Index MICEX yesterday moved closer to the lower boundary of the channel growth (-1070 forth), originating from March this year. If the bears can not be immediately overcome this level (for a breakdown requires higher sales), we can expect short-term movement of the index back to the zone MA21/OVR-20 (1095/1111). However, we appreciate the situation as precarious. We believe that the further strengthening of the dollar against the pressure of sellers will increase, which ultimately lead to the breakdown of the March trend. Here we will see and increase in speed, and shorts. One of the goals of this correction - creating a pool of short-term short positions, due to the subsequent closure of which will unload long positions over the long-term players. In this regard, we expect by the end of the beginning of next week, reducing the volume indicator of short-term OBV-5 positions to zero, and then allow access to the area of negative values.

possible view to emerging technical correction may be closing gepa the morning of May 27, with the achievement of the MICEX index zone -1010/1040 p. We appreciate the movement as remedial, and look forward to a strong movement back in the final phase of the rally-2009

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Polyus Gold

Surrounding levels of support: 1350.0 /1300.0

nearest resistance levels: 1400.0 /1425.0

At the end of the last trading session, shares of Polyus Gold lost in the value of 3.438%, to close under the psychologically important mark of 1,400 rubles.

After yesterday's decline in gold futures traded in a small, black, keeping a check over $ 930 a barrel. External background contributes to the opening of securities Polyus Gold in a small plus. Further action may rush toward 1400 rub. I recommend to open a position with a view to 1420 rubles. - At the level of Perforation of the shares may go to the level of 1425 rubles. At which I recommend to close the position. In the case of the benefits of bear sentiment shares could test the 1350 mark rub., While keeping to recommend open.

Gazprom

Surrounding levels of support: 170.0 /165.0 /160.0

nearest resistance levels: 176.00 /180.00 /191.86

Shares Gazprom's eve followed obscherynochnoy dynamics. Negative signals from the commodity markets have had a serious pressure on the paper company. At the end of the day shares have closed in the red, losing 5.27%. Technically, the paper continued to move towards the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel, formed in February 2009. Resistance during the session was made by the level in the area of 183 rubles.

Following the closure of our situation on the commodity market has not changed significantly. Before you start bidding quotations oil, slightly adjusting, traded below $ 70 a barrel. The opening is seen in a small minus. During the session, there is an attempt to test support in the region of 170 EUR. In general, the dynamics will be determined by external signals. In support of Perforation down the level of 170 rubles. the aim will be the lower limit of the medium-term ascending channel in the vicinity of 165 rubles.

Company

Surrounding levels of support: 1500.0 /1400.0

nearest resistance levels: 1600.0 /1630.00 /1660.0 /1700.0

Shares Lukoil in the session on Monday, lost in the value of 5,968% and closed near the level of support in the form of lower limit of an ascending channel, formed in early April.



The decline in oil prices contributed to the continuation of bear sentiment in the paper. The purpose of the stock is marked 1500 rub. In the event of a change of sentiment on the commodity market shares can cannon to the psychologically important mark of 1,600 rubles. In the case of Perforation of the top level of the paper can return to the medium-term upward trend (1630 rub.), Formed earlier this year and on the eve of holes down.

Savings Bank

Surrounding levels of support: 40.0 /35.0

nearest resistance levels: 45.0 /45.7 /48.3 /50.0

At the end of last session, shares of Sberbank lost in the value of 8.461%, to close below 45 rubles. During yesterday's trading day was closed the gap from 1 June, thus opening prospects for growth.

External background contributes to a negative opening, but in light of substantial prior Drawdown likely rebound. Positions recommend that open only when the retention of current levels. Shares can go back over the level of 45 rubles., Growth is limited by several levels of resistance in the form of moving averages. The immediate goal is to mark 48 EUR. At which I recommend to close the position. In the case of Perforation of the shares of the Savings Bank may test the level of 50 rubles. If sales continue, the risk of care to the point 40 rub. quite significant.

VTB

Surrounding levels of support: 3,5 /3,0

nearest resistance levels: 4,0 /4,2 /4,5

According to the results of yesterday's session, shares of VTB closed below the psychologically important level of 4 cop., losing in the value of 6.474%. Closing of securities held at the level of support in the form of an ascending channel, formed in mid-February this year.

External background contributes to a negative opening, but likely a technical rebound. I recommend to stay away from the market, as in the case of Perforation down the level of 3.9 kopecks. a significant risk reduction to the level of 3.5 kopecks.

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