Yesterday

In the environment in Russia resumed sales of a technical rebound after the previous day. At the end of the trading the MICEX index fell by 5.46% - to 1039.43 points and the RTS index - on 4,05% - to 1038.41 points. At the tender from the continued wave of selling in all sectors: in industry, and telecom, and oil and gas sector. MICEX Index has updated a local minimum of 1050 points. Trading volume on MICEX amounted to about 70 billion rubles, which is a maximum of one week.

Despite the deteriorating situation in the global economy, investors have been slow sales on the Russian stock market. The only factor that keeps the market on panic selling - oil prices. It is difficult to imagine what will happen to the domestic market, if you find a normal correction of oil futures, with the subsequent devaluation of the ruble.

U.S. market

Trades in the United States on Wednesday, June 17, ended in divergent changes in stock indexes. There is a revolutionary situation - the bulls can not and do not want to bear. At a false breakdown 900 points, bears harshly punished, but above the 200MA bulls were unable to penetrate. At 914 was sitting a good seller, and we returned to the downstream channel. Bulls could try to draw a double bottom at the localand 900 to draw the right thigh, but the test 875 looks inevitable.

Regarding economic indicators, the negative impact on the market has had a decision to downgrade the credit ratings of SP 22 American banks. Macroeconomic data published on Wednesday, also did not have a particular reason for optimism. Barack Obama has announced an ambitious reform of regulation of the financial sector, which has become the most radical since the Great Depression. Changes authority financial regulators would allow the authorities to improve monitoring of the situation in the financial, banking and investment sectors. Experts believe that the new rules do not allow banks to easily manipulate the risk of financial instruments for profit.

otrebitelskie prices after the production, also fell short of expectations. Last May, the overall price index rose by 0.1%, core index (excluding energy and food) is also increased by 0.1%. As a result, over the past year, overall consumer price index fell by 1.3% (a record decline since 1950), the base price index for the year grew by 1.8%. If it were not for increases in the prices of medicine (which occupies a significant portion of the budgets of Americans who are here for a year prices rose by 3.2%), the situation would have been much worse. Doubts true cause energy prices. Officially, the price of energy, which in May, gaining just 0.2%, this despite the fact that retail gasoline prices rose 10.5% in the paste.

At the end of the trading index of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 7.49 point, or 0.1%, to 8497 points. The index of wide market SP 500 closed at 1.26 point decline, or 0.1%, at around 910.71 points. High tech Nasdaq Composite reinforced at paragraph 11.88, or 0.6%, and closed at around 1808 points.

Oil

Oil on Wednesday 17 June, a little grown up on the basis of volatile trading session. Fluctuations quotations were due to mixed reactions of traders at the data on stocks of black gold in the United States. Department of Energy reported more significant than anticipated, falling oil reserves in the country. Meanwhile, the growth stocks of petrol has exceeded expectations.

As a result of trades on the NYMEX July crude oil futures for the supply of brand WTI increased by $ 0.56 to $ 71.03 a barrel. During the bidding price of oil dropped to $ 69.00 a barrel.

Asia

Stock Indexes Asia Today show raznopravlennuyu dynamics. Japanese Nikkei, falling more than 1.5%, a wide market Topix index by 2%. Korean Kospi falls by 1%. Only China continues to show positive dynamics, CSI 300 INDEX grows by more than 1.8%. On the mood of investors affected by the outcome of trades in the U.S., which culminated in the collapse of stock indices of the third day in a row. The course the Japanese yen traded at a level nearly two-week peak against the U.S. dollar against a background of optimism of investors, due to expectations that the pace of restoring the American economy will lead to increased demand for safer assets.

Today

External background before opening the bidding in Russia - combined. Support for the domestic market will continue to provide high oil prices and the plus futures on U.S. indices.

It is only logical to expect a technical rebound in the morning. Further evolution is traditionally determined by the mood in overseas markets. The market continues to look extremely weak against the backdrop of high oil prices.

Magic 1100 pp. on MICEX stayed behind, having become now a strong resistance level. Now we can more confidently say that the upward trend of local perelomlen. If the bear sentiment will be supported by western areas, during the week we can see the 1000 test items for the MICEX index.

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On Wednesday, the external background at the time of opening of tenders in the Russian market appeared neutral, the eve of the U.S. indices again fell, but prices of oil and commodities have been stable. Open with little gepom down the main blue chips back to yesterday's closing levels - but only to the end of the first half of trades confidently turn down following the renewed decline in oil futures opened on the negative territory of the European sites. Aggressive decline continued until about the middle of the trading, after the MICEX index mark 1 050 items indexes moved in a narrow and volatile outset. Large block of macroeconomic data released in the United States in 16:30, has also been mostly negative, due to close by the end of the trading Russian indexes still updated minima of the day - however, the potential one-day decline was already noticeable extent exhausted, and a significant acceleration of the fall has not happened . MICEX Index at the end of the trading amounted to 1 039.43 points (-5.46%), the RTS Index -4.05% to 1 038.41 points.

leading indicators decline in the sector in the MICEX index was the metallurgical MICEX MM 6,03%. During the period of optimism paper sector grew faster than the improvement of the situation on the metals market, and now has been adjusted. The greatest reduction in shares Raspadskiy (-10.99%) and MMC Norilsk Nickel (-7.48%). It looked stock steel industry, a decline of -5% to -7.5%. Steadily looked shares PolyusZoloto (-1.8%), although the price of gold has almost no reaction to a marked deterioration in sentiment in the equity markets.

oil and gas sector index MICEX OG -4,62%.

leading the fall, not only in the sector, but also among all Russian blue chips have become Gazprom shares have lost -8.03% against the backdrop of a series of negative news. First, the Deputy Chairman of the Board Alexander Ananenkov said at a press conference on the possible postponement of the crisis dates Kovyktinskogo deposit at a later date. Secondly, it was announced that Gazprom and China not uspeyut to begin deliveries of Russian gas to China in 2011. But perhaps the most significant negative factor was the proposal of the Ministry of Finance to increase the tax rate for natural gas in 2010. It is no coincidence that the second-fastest fall in the sector has become Novatek, -6.73%. Oil paper looked a bit better, however, drop their quotations in the 2 - 6% at stable prices for oil, which is already moving in a week rather narrow outset in the region of 70 dollars per barrel, we believe, reflects investors' concerns covered in the short term markets shares. On the positive territory, only completed prefy Transneft (3.33%).

Shares of Sberbank continues to confirm the reputation beginning to emerge core chips Russian market, ordinary shares yesterday fell to 6.64%, preferred cheaper at 5.88% on the already habitually high speed. At 5.67%, and decreased quotes VTB. Index MICEX FNL -4,58%.

Telecom is also in the red, but losses on average, less than the market, the index of MICEX TLC -2,88%. On neutral territory - Rostelekom shares (0.49% obychka, prefy -0.53%), paper MRK lost within 5%, worse than just obychka Uralsvyazinform (-5.96%). In our view while sector, albeit with some stretch, can be called protective - but one must bear in mind that the terms of the restructuring of Svyazinvest - the main medium-term driver for the sector - has not yet been identified, and not the fact that they will be attractive to minority MRK.

In the electricity industry draws on a relatively small negative on the most liquid securities, RusGidro (-2.11%) and FGC UES (-4.75%) - and, consequently, a moderate decline in the sectoral index: MICEX PWR -2, 73%. At the same time, the less liquid securities have suffered a substantial loss. For example, the wholesale generating companies, except for the WGC-5 (-1.65%), lost by 5.5% or more, the maximum decline in the shares of OGK-3 - 8.51%, showing a high risk of committing the short-term speculative purchases this sector.

Expectations for today: mostly negative situation in the external capital markets (the failed attempt on the growth of American markets yesterday, the strong fall in Asia today) is offset by a more stable situation on the commodity markets, including in the oil market, supported by ongoing attempts to strengthening of the euro on the FOREX and reports of rebel attacks on oil pipelines in Nigeria.

Yesterday's data on the stocks of the United States have been mixed, crude oil stocks fell by 3.87 million barrels (expected to decline by 2 million barrels), but the inventory of gasoline rose by 3.38 million barrels (forecast an increase only 550 thousand barrels). We expect that Russia will begin the day with the attempt to win back some of yesterday's losses, but during the day do not rule out a resumption of correction, the next goal for which in this case 1000 points seen on the MICEX index.

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The first half of the trading of the day was mainly controlled by sellers. Futures on the RTS index (RTS-9.09, RIU9) reached the area of 100 000 items, which may rebound in the area of 104 000 points.

The main objective of reducing the current-to next week, in our view, is located in the vicinity of 90 000-95 000 points. We prefer the game of sales with the foot higher than 108 000 items.

Futures on the euro-dollar (ED-9.09, EDU9) is testing the resistance in the region of 1.4. You can play from the sales with the foot above 1.41-1.42. In the case of a long positions recommend placing a stop below 1.37-1.38.

Futures on the dollar-ruble (Si-9.09, SiU9) during the last trading session tested the resistance in the region 31 950-32 000, and then survived the decline of support for the 31 650-31 700. You can play from shopping with the foot below the 31 650 or from sales of the game with the foot above 32 000.

Futures oil varieties Brent (BR-7.09, BRN9) traded near $ 71 after testing support at $ 69. Stop by the shorts recommend thatyou place higher than $ 72-73. In the case of a long positions of possible stop below $ 68-69.

Futures on gold (GOLD-9.09, GDU9) traded in the area of resistance at $ 940. We recommend opening short position with the foot higher than $ 940-960. Stop by the long positions can be below $ 920-925.

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The opening bid of the day index futures on the RTS (RTS-9.09, RIU9) managed to reach the resistance in the region of 107 000 points, then rushed to the support in the area of 105 000 points.

The current situation can be seen as adjustment of the range of 104 000-108 000 points, which implies the game from the shop with the foot below the 104 000 points, with the foot above the sale of 108 000 points.

Stop on strategic shorts recommend that you place above 110 000-111 000 points.

Futures on the euro-dollar (ED-9.09, EDU9) is currently moving in the area of resistance at 1.39. In the event of further growth we expect to achieve the 1.42 area. In general, the situation can be seen as variations within the range of 1.38-1.43.

Futures on the dollar-ruble (Si-9.09, SiU9) during the current trading session has tested supportat 31 700. You can play from shopping with the foot below the 31 700 calculated to reach 31 900-32 000.

Futures oil varieties Brent (BR-7.09, BRN9) is currently trading below resistance at $ 71. You can play with the foot of sales above $ 72-73. Immediate objectives are to reduce the area of $ 68, $ 66.

Futures on gold (GOLD-9.09, GDU9) moves below resistance at $ 940. Possible rebound goal up is in the range $ 940-960. We recommend playing with the foot of sales above $ 960. In the case of a long positions recommend placing a stop below $ 920.

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Bears made up, but whether the long

started trading on Wednesday with a small gap down, quotes the leading securities correctly off the top, to close the gap and be prepared to move down. Full-time dynamics of indices confirmed the downward movement, which began earlier this week. Figures RTS and MICEX indices clearly a lower limit of the downward trend. The traditional summer lull stock market bulls are forced to pour his blood. 4-5% drop in our stock indicators contributed to the decline in European markets (FTSE -1,25%) and unstable dynamics in the price of oil (Brent $ 70,1 /bbl; -0.2%).

Unfortunately, at the time formed the downward trend, investors pay little attention to positive news. Thus, investors ignored the current data on unemployment in Britain, who were more optimistic than expected. Technical indicators for the indices has persisted signals that markets can go down another 5-6%. In favor of such a development scenario and said 2-4 fold preponderance of the total number of sellers over buyers.

In the light of the resumption of short positions, market participants are particularly avoid purchases of liquid securities, fearing to see them fall more steeply compared with the shares of the second tier. Here, investors continue to be interested in buying shares InterRAO (4,62%), Transneft prefami (3%) and AvtoVAZ (9.24%).

Oil prices stopped after yesterday's good growth in today's lunch stop its decline. Futures on the stamp firmly entrenched Brent at around $ 70/barr. Such resistance quotation we explain the dynamics of the dollar, which today is very stable to the euro (1,386).

I think that before the end of the day on our market share will dominate sawtooth dynamics quotations, because stock market bulls though weak, but do not doze, expecting correction up in the States after the failure of two consecutive sessions.

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