Despite the relatively sustained increase in prices in the western stock markets, rising oil prices, the dynamics of quotations of Russian shares on Friday was mixed. RTS-up session, added 1.39% and completed the bidding at around 1 011.56 Fri. Indicator RTS-2, by contrast, fell by 0.67% and was as a result of 895.36 points.

The main sale raised, therefore, a segment on defense, relatively liquid securities. Among them, the rate of negative dynamics are allocated shares of OAO Sollers, who, apparently, correct its increase last week, at the beginning of May, almost 50% reflecting market reaction to the statement by the head of Sberbank G. Gref on the planned establishment of a major Russian automotive consortium.

unexpectedly rapid thaw in the global segment on vysokoriskovannyh assets, probably had no liking for the Bear, intensified the market after the lifting of June 15, TG FSFR ban on opening short positions.

It is also worth noting that recently the world's leading regulatory framework have increased the discussion of issues related to the completion of the period of monetary expansion as the recovery of world economy. Against this backdrop, a further negative impact on the mood of investors, stock market, may have the date scheduled for next Wednesday meeting of the Fed.

However, at this stage, given the relatively recent start of the process of restoring the world of finance, Reserve United States is not ready for a significant tightening of its monetary policy. In this connection, draws the attention of stability quotations carry trade sector and the energy market.

Although, in terms of technical factors, the market is looking down, there is a chance of a relatively sharp turn the current negative trend.

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market continues to look down

In Thursday trading on the Russian site quotes opened the increase in the first few minutes of trades MICEX index added around 1.5%. However, bears have the half that would lead the market lower than the previous day's closing, after which the decline continued. Despite a moderately negative external background to the middle of the day the market experienced a strong decline in most securities. The situation was corrected statistics. In the middle of the day in the market, the first shoots of correction, which was supported by statdannye of the United States. First, data on the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits added optimism to the market, and then the data for the index of leading indicators and the Philadelphia region's business, which suddenly rose to -2.2 points. As a result, the majority of the securities on our market finished the day decline. The leaders began to drop the paper and Tatneft Mosenergo, lost 6% and 6.75% respectively. On the positive territory were able to finish the day, Gazprom Neft (2%) and preferred shares of Sberbank (1.5%). At the end of the trading the MICEX index lost 1.78%, ending the day at 1020.95.

Opening overseas sites took place against a background of good macro-economic data that caused the positive momentum in the early trading session. In the future, the major U.S. markets have moved in the lateral motion. Dow Jones Indexes on the closure of added 0,68%, S P500 rose 0.84%. NASDAQ Index finished the day at the previous closing level. Quotations of futures on oil brand Brent spent the day under the level of 71.5 $ /barrel. Attempts to bear market lead from this level down to anything have not resulted, and after testing the level of 70 $ /barrel, the decline was to play. To our opening at the Brent futures traded at the level of 71.2.

Today, we expect a positive opening for our market. In the early hours of the trading dynamics of yesterday seems to persist. However, we do not recommend that players buy. Most likely, that the market will continue its downward movement and the spread may happen at any time. As we noted yesterday, the strong decline in our market place at a moderately negative background that can speak about the major players of the securities that are perceived breakdown of 1090 and a rising trend as a signal for a fixed profit.

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Possible scenarios of futures on RTS index in the near future:

targets for futures on RTS index when it is falling:

1) Red upward slant line - 90 000 points in futures on RTS index.

time achieving this goal:

a. 5 - 7 trading days.

targets for futures on RTS index, with growth:

2) The green downward slant line (short-term trend) - 111 600 points for the futures on RTS index.

a. 1 - 2 trading days.

3) Blue upward slant line - 112 000 points for the futures on RTS index.

a. 3 - 5 trading days. We are looking forward to testing the bottom mark.

Evening session on FORTS June 18, 2009:

evening trading volume was below normal because of the featureless dynamics of foreign markets. Futures on the RTS index traded sideways in a big range of 2 000 points. Oil is still above the $ 71 a barrel, and, in general, there is no reason for pessimism, but the market continues to fall. I think the closure of short positions would continue - until the first very good news, after which we will update maxima.

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Without new ideas

Oil topchetsya about 70-71 dollars, a basket - in the corridor 36.65-36.75 rubles. Ruble liquidity gradually melts because of the tax payment and reduction of net debt to banks, the Central Bank. Last week, balances with the Bank of Russia decreased by about 114 billion rubles to 838 billion, however, overnight rates have not yet been raised above 7-8%.

Despite the heavy oil, a strong ruble and the prospects of a new reduction of key rates of Central Bank, the holders of ruble bonds for some reason (it can, including becauseof the impending Moscow placements) have decided to follow the example of colleagues with the stock market and pofiksirovat little profit. Therefore, quotes releases 1 st tier mostly declined. For example, issues of Moscow, Gazpromneft-4 (YTP 14%) and CFR-12 (YTP 15.08%) lost at a cost of about 20-40bp.

yesterday appeared information about the placement of the bond issue IBRD-5 (5 billion, annual offer, a coupon of 15%) and UMPO-3 (3 billion rubles, annual offer, a coupon of 18%). Given that the deployment went very quiet (almost no marketing), we believe that it is a private transactions.

Yesterday came the news about the next defaulted: Globe-leasing company did not pay a coupon on the two bond issues. Loans traded on SPVB.

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In Bond Market You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the results of bidding for MICEX and read the comments on the bond market.

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