In advance of the meeting scheduled for Wednesday, the Fed quotes the American currency on the FX continues to increase. Some increase in short-term market interest rates, and demonstrated in June TG decline in prices for fed funds futures indicate that the Reserve has become increasingly difficult to justify it done in the last quarter of the monetary policy expansion.

At the same time, appreciating the possible outcomes of the forthcoming meeting of FOMC, it is important to note that the recovery in financial markets began relatively recently. In this regard, the Fed policy change towards her of any tightening is unlikely to be now regarded as a version of events more favorable to the macroeconomy than the Fed preserve its current strategic and tactical targets in the monetary sphere. Moreover, the latest information, according to the Beige Book Fed, demonstrates the continuing decline in the economy of the U.S. manufacturing inflation. Apparently, on this background, backup is limited to the outcome of the June summit, only some of the increased anti-inflationary rhetoric of his final statement, with the market expectations of any near time increase its base rates will not be supported by Fed.

Fromthis perspective, despite the fact that the current bear trend rate EUR /USD remains relevant today, in the long run the next day potential for its further development seems still limited.

Japanese business climate indicator in the field (Tertiary industry index), according to today's information, in April, TG at annualized 2.2%, with an average forecast, equal to 2.3% (g /d). However, while the value for the previous month was revised with a relatively large increase, up to -2.8% versus -4% (g /g) previously. Given the good overall performance statistics of American industrial optimism calculated FRB Philadelphia for June TG and the United States in May of leading indicators, a segment on the highly risky assets, seems to have some stock is not reflected in the quotations of positive macro-economic information.

The Mid-term trend of yen in the foreign exchange market was still down in the remaining in the term risk worsening balance of payments and Finance of Japan. In the case of reduction of market concerns regarding the possibility of meaningful change in Fed policy, bear trend rate JPY on FX, and can manifest itself in the coming days.

Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 10:30 Moscow time was 31.24 and 36.69 rubles. against, respectively, 31.17 and 36.67 rubles. Friday morning at the auction.

In the future, the next day a strengthening currency, Russia on the international market be due to the easing of tensions in the financial segment of the Russian Federation and started in the middle of last week, a gradual increase in energy prices.

However, growing up in recent weeks, the medium-term financial and economic risks are still significant opportunity to create a Bear course correction on RUB FX in a longer time period.

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Still, without knowing the basic foundations of technical analysis to earn and retain profits in their hands as long as possible no player will not be. It signals technical indicators warn players that the price of the first days of June are the maximum that it is necessary to make a complete exit from positions. What I am quite clear and timely warning. Who obey reasonable council could save the capital from the Drawdown around 18-20%, and even more if the game was to the credit. But, as practice has shown, many mocked the testimony of technical indicators. To laugh now - the market has shown quite clearly.

movement the last three weeks (-20% drop) can be described only mild correction to the growing momentum. As I said, when the corrective wave, it will be a step, because the growing momentum left a lot of supports, and every move will knock down on the levels and rebound. And so it happened on June 18, when prices touched the level of support, has cannon, as if investors pochuyali, forgotten it, the smell of cheap shares.

I think so. At 15min, 60min periods for signals on the purchase yet. One touch of 980 points on the MICEX index is clearly not correct to stop all this puncture, and to repeat the attempts of Perforation of support have all the prerequisites. 1. Not performed for the purpose of the graphical theory Demark, 910-920 points on the MICEX index, the upper limiter is at 1080, 2. No signals for buying at the senior years; 3. A signal for the sale of day-time index of the MICEX. 4. There are signals for the sale of virtually all issuers in the afternoon band.

RTS, day - the signal for purchase from 6 March 2009.

MICEX Index, a daily - a signal on sale from 19 June 2009.

Gazprom, a day - a signal on sale from 18 June 2009.

GMKNorNikel, day - the signal to the sale from 17 June 2009.

Lukoil, a day - a signal on sale from 17 June 2009.

Rosneft day - a signal on sale from 17 June 2009.

Sberbank on, full-time - the signal for buying from 11 March 2009.

Tatneft, day - the signal to the market with 16 June, 2009.

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Friday for the Russian market over multidirectional movement of the major indices, so the RTS rose by 1,37% to 1,011.38, while the MICEX index lost 0.36%, falling to 1,017.29. In general, ambient background was quite positive, but this did not stop Russia from the reduction of paper, where the leaders were once again among banks and securities GMK Norilsk Nickel.

Bumagi oil and gas sector looked better than the others, in particular, Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz rose due to renewed speculation about the merger, but the vice-premier of the Russian Federation Igor Sechin denied this information, which is slightly cool purchase. Gazprom has passed their position at the previous auction, this time recovering, passion up to a Russian indexes. European stock platform to create an optimistic backdrop for the remainder of the Russian stock unnoticed day for major European indexes finished in positive territory. In the absence of major macroeconomic data attention was riveted on the bidders to corporate communications. Shares of housing and construction companies have gone up because of Taylor Wimpey, which is informed about the increase in orders. UBS helped podrasti a number of enterprises, increasing their recommendations and ratings. Surely felt paper in mining and energy companies due to expensive raw materials, although in the end the oil quotes proseli much, but it happened after the closing of Europe.

U.S. equity markets closed differently. High-tech sectors was the main deterrent force of the fall, which helped to improve the recommendations by Goldman Sachs Securities Microsoft Corp. In addition, shares of Apple rose in anticipation of the start of sales of the new iPhone. These news reverse the pressure exerted by the Research In Motion Ltd because of the disappointing forecast. Down market pulled the paper from the power of fallen prices of black gold.

Asian markets on Monday morning went to the positive territory. On the optimistic players accepted the recommendations of raising Microsoft Corp, as a result of technology companies shares have gone up. In addition, the statistics pointed to improving sentiment major producers of Japan, surpassed expectations, and the yen slightly passed their position, which contributes to the growth of interest in the securities of exporters.

The Russian stock market at the opening to win back drop of oil, as well as a little prosevshie U.S. futures. MICEX index back to the area of 1010/1000, where he can help get statistics from Germany, which can strengthen the hopes for the immediate restoration of the world economy, while the index went to 1030. However, in recent days, purchasing power has fallen heavily on the market, returning volatility, so in the case of the negative signals of the market can go to their last wage for the 980, especially as oil dropped below $ 70, and continued its decline to $ 65 could lead to a drop in oil securities. Besides, drew the attention of the fact that on Friday a positive external background market tried not to notice, but, given that the potential for the fall has not been exhausted, then it is likely that we see today, trading near current levels, or the resumption of traffic down .

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