From the early days of financial crisis, ZN given the subject utmost attention. On our pages discussed in detail severe downturn in the economy, the inflation problem, the negotiations with the IMF, the price jumps and the sharp decline in revenue. We could not fail to excite as useless and stupid the majority of government and the parliamentary anti-crisis measures, and the threat of default, the problem with the solvency of banks, currency speculation and lack of procedures for the refinancing of the bank.
from the PN were all possible points of view about what is happening - ministers and deputies, heads of regulatory and law enforcement agencies, academics and analysts, bankers and their clients, ambassadors, businessmen, lawyers. To complete the picture is not enough, perhaps, the views of only one of the most important desizhnmeykerov country - NBU chairman Volodymyr Stelmakh.
Today we
eliminates the gap. Of course, a great temptation to arrange a meeting in the first person National Bank interrogation bias for each of the huge backlog of issues. But hardly communicate in a similar vein, would be informative and useful. After all, the interview is not rubber, and delve into a discussion on a particular issue, we would not be able to hear the views of Vladimir Stelmakh on many other issues. In today's difficult situation for the society, which fell on the head of the crisis, the devaluation, the total negative, distrust, mutual accusations of politicians and politicians, much more important to try to find answers to the questions - Why wait for what to do and how to live on. Here is a version of the Heads of National Bank.
- Vladimir, how do you assess the current state of financial markets and banking system?
- Until very recently, when I asked this question, the easiest way was to tell the anecdote in response. The banker calls a colleague, and greeted, asked: How are you? - Heard in response: Okay. - Bormochet: Sorry, wrong number. And hang up.
in recent weeks in the financial system of Ukraine has shown clear signs of stabilization. First of all, it can be seen on the situation in the foreign exchange market. The Head of State has already voiced the information that the National Bank has even bought the currency on the interbank market, adding reserves. This, among other things, contributed to the strengthening of the market, and the official exchange rate of hryvnia to the dollar last month, more than 9 cop. (from 7,7 to 7,61 UAH /USD.), or 1.2%.
exchange stabilization occurred as a result, that the people calm, and thanks to the gradual alignment of the trade balance.
What would they say, the psychological aspect was one of the main factors of the devaluation of hryvnia. According to the balance of payments, from November 2008 to April 2009 the first increase in cash outside banks amounted to 7.1 billion dollars
significantly reduced foreign exchange remittances from guest workers, who also previously created a good influx of currency into Ukraine. Preliminary estimates indicate that private transfers from abroad during the five months of this year decreased by 23.7% and amounted to 1.47 billion dollars compared with 1.9 billion dollars over the same period of 2008.
reduce the passions and helped foreign exchange auctions to buy currency at the market under the non-cash repayment of loans to the public, small and medium-sized businesses. And since the beginning of May the situation has changed: a proposal to exchange cash market increased by almost one and a half times, outweigh the demand for $ 150 million
Stabilization of course positively affected the mood of investors. As banks began to slowly return deposits. If in the first quarter of this year, monthly growth of household deposits had negative value, in April and May they were already positive - 0,6 and 0,7% respectively. So we have even a small but strong trend of increasing population growth rate of deposits in the banking system. And deposits are growing both in national and foreign currencies.
helped improve the situation and the actions of the bank. In addition to these target auction sales of foreign currency to repay loans to individuals, and this continued support the liquidity of banks, and additional measures to stabilize the banks,and adequate interest policy. In particular, in order to consolidate the positive developments in the financial market and promote the economic development of the National Bank of Ukraine has declined from 15 June, the discount rate to
12 to 11%.
- One of the main factors that determine the level of confidence in the banks - the return of the frozen deposits. Please confirm, so lifted or not a moratorium on the early withdrawal of deposits? As banks are fulfilling their obligations to customers?
- The crisis affected most 25-27 banks, 15 of which put a temporary administration and declared a moratorium on compliance with the requirements of lenders. However, we plan to ensure that those banks which are now in relation to the moratorium has delayed payments, too, were obliged to implement them.
NBU
now preparing a document that a moratorium on the implementation of the commitments did not extend to the payment functions of the banks that they should be carried out in accordance with Article 47 of the Banking Act.
As for deposits, banks are obliged to pay in time, as soon expire during their deployment in the bank. Term of payment is linked to the fact that deposits were invested in bank assets. Generally, the investor must make a choice - either income on their money, or at any time have access to them. If the investor chooses the latter, it should put money into a current account or to rent a bank safe deposit box. But if the money invested in the bank for a specified period for the purpose of obtaining income, the investor must understand that this money will not lie on a shelf, and will be issued as a credit to another person (or entity). And if so, to obtain the money necessary to wait until the end of the term deposit.
- An important element in reducing panic population was the cessation of public accusations against the National Bank of Ukraine on the part of the Head of Government. What is more important cause of strengthening the hryvnia - the political or economic component?
- Of course, an end to the destructive debate has played an important positive role. When it's not, again the key role played by market forces, and are now course strengthened the market. As I said earlier, we have almost reached equilibrium in trade balance. Obviously, the forced devaluation occurred, however painful it may be perceived in society, and in the National Bank, began to show positive results.
positive factor was the resumption of cooperation with the IMF, the flow of trenches from which largely compensates for the outflow of currency in the financial account. And most importantly, the national economy also had an opportunity to shake in order to raise competitiveness, including through increased and product quality.
This shift to a flexible kursoobrazovaniyu contributed relatively rapid leveling of foreign trade deficits. Of course, the depreciation of UAH complicate maintenance of bank loans made in foreign currency. However, the current extreme conditions in this matter, in any case, there would be no easy answers. His ultimate escalation allowed to proceed to address the fundamental problems that began in March 2003.
As for the currency gap between bank loans and deposits, they should serve as a partial leveling program recapitalize the banking system. But only partially. Since the responsibility for these foreign exchange imbalances and must be borne by the banks for years to defend their right to an unconditional extension of foreign currency lending.
- Is there a real prospect for the further strengthening of the course, to the extent justified by the forecast of its eventual fall of destabilization?
- holdings in dollars, established by our commercial bank accounts in foreign banks now account for about
4 billion if the banks are now sold 1,5-2 billion dollars, the question of course would not stand.
To do this, we changed the method of calculating the monetary stance. However, some banks with foreign capital have taken in this matter destructive position, requiring a preferential and special treatment. I do not accept this approach.
Already
if foreign capital was settled on long-term entry into the banking system of Ukraine, then in his own interest to maintain the stability not only of the system, but the Ukrainian economy. Since the development of the sustainable development depends the ultimate effectiveness of the foreign investment. It is clear that today the domestic economy as well, and the world, is not the best of times. Exclusivity challenges that we are forced to confront the demands exceptional inherently decisions. Not surprisingly, some of them are strikingly discordant with the usual rules. However, accounting for reminding that some of the usual rules ultimately led to the upheavals that have more than one year, experiencing the world economy.
All stakeholders should be equal. And to work on the Ukrainian laws. We are willing to compromise on the timing or something else, but completely renounce their intentions are not going to.
During a recent visit to Switzerland, we learned about the experience of the central bank of this country and made a very important conclusion: the European Central Bank, is actively enforce individual regulations with respect to their banks, such as increased capital adequacy. I do not understand why we can not apply the same rules.
- What is now the main threat to the stability of the currency market and the financial system? What do you see the main problems hampering the restoration of confidence in the banking system?
- As before, now the main threat of destabilization - politics. And more precisely, ovladevshy overwhelming majority of our politicians and inconsumable, despite everything, the revolutionary enthusiasm of social populism. And it has all the other problems of the Ukrainian economy metastases.
confidence in the banking system depends primarily on the credibility of the hryvnia. And we, unfortunately, have not been able to adopt the status of the national currency as one of the main attributes of statehood. Dollarization only formal part of the Ukrainian economy to date, more than 30%. As I said, over the previous six months in the shadow took about $ 7 billion How much currency is under the pillow citizens - we can only assume.
We like to refer to the Chinese experience. So I'll tell you that in China's money supply is about 160% of GDP - this is where the level of monetization. But there is no problem, since a large portion of these funds lies with the deposits in banks, the propensity to save which, as in Japan, is very high.
As we begin to move in that direction - this is one of the key issues that determines the stability and the hryvna, and the availability of investment resources, and its value.
We also see almost the entire housing market, both primary and secondary, was actually completely built on a monetary basis. And not only on credit, but estimated. After all, when to buy and sell real estate only in the accounts shall include the amount of UAH, and reduced several times, because nobody wanted to pay extra charges. And all the basic calculations were carried out mostly in foreign currency.
because there was a huge turnover of the currency as the market land prices due to the housing deficit grew as a yeast, with more whip on foreign bank loans. That's because real estate sector has been focused on commercial lending, has a high income.
- Why is the National Bank does not prohibit foreign loans? Because they were cheaper for the economy?
- What currency loans have been cheaper - it is fiction. With insurance, hidden commissions and similar features banks bring their value up to 46% per annum. This shows our audit.
Why not restricted currency loans? It is very difficult to make such decisions in a country where everyone wanted to quickly zazhit well. Construction, which was one of the main engines of economic growth, there must be a makeup credit resources, which were mostly in foreign currency. Therefore, to limit foreign currency loans would stifle their own growth.
Whether currency lending long debated in the NBU Board. A collective decision was in favor of maintaining this type of lending.
- whether it should be understood that you salute adopted by the Verkhovna Rada of this week a ban on foreign currency loans?
- no doubt. As I said, its capacity has been one of the main causes of the financial sector the major imbalances. On the existence of the greatest risks National Bank warned bankers and people in recent years a number of occasions. Many bankers are not heeded these warnings, the years defending their right to an unconditional extension of foreign currency lending. So, once again, the responsibility for these currency imbalances must be borne by the banks themselves.
- Then why is the National Bank was unable to stimulate low-cost loans in UAH?
- Let's clearly having accents. When it comes to providing low interest rates in terms of inflation, then someone must pay the creditor the difference between the rate under which they agree to lend money, and one that could make a borrower. Such arrangements are being successfully operated in including in the Ukraine - I am referring to the budget of the compensation cost of credit for different categories of borrowers.
Another point is that the funds for such compensation in the budget is not as big as anyone would. But that is not subject to central bank. Reduce the price of loans by issuing means impossible: Issue of unsecured money for any, even the good causes would lead to their devaluation, inflation and further accelerate the growth of prices of credits. What are the budgetary costs to cut in order to increase the amount of compensation of interest rates on loans and what categories of borrowers, through such a mechanism to maintain - it is the exclusive competence of the government and parliament.
in 2005, when I returned to work at the National Bank, 937 thousand families in need of better living conditions. To solve this problem, it was necessary to give an 8 bln. loans for three to four years. Now the housing needs of 1 million 250 thousand families, and the price issue has risen to 12-15 billion
grn. targeted credits for up to five years. Select the resources - not a problem for the National Bank, however, but to ask for money, nobody wanted to and now does not want to deal with this problem seriously.
much more profitable to engage in the provision and resale of land for development. Why fight for the decline in prices, if their growth has officials fantastic profit?
Even
initiative to complete the construction of residential facilities readily 50% and higher, which could help to revive not only the construction sector, we could not bring to mind. The issue of credit for the state, especially in construction, has always been linked to the policies that we have a very mercantile. And where the National Bank is included in the work, everything must be transparent, difficult to deal with corruption. Therefore, we do not want to work.
- With regards to transparency. Maybe you did explain what motivated the decision to multibillion loans to individual banks to refinance?
- If you remember, the story began not with the bank Nadra, but with Prominvest. His problem, admittedly, have a surprise for us - we thought that a wise Matviyenko (Chairman of the PIBA. - Author.) Will not allow such a situation. Started panicking, which were under attack and other major banks, particularly those who had no major foreign parent institutions, but it was all the more deposits. Among them was the bank Nadra, which had 700 branches, 2 million depositors with deposits of almost 11 billion UAH. (at 01.10.08) - 5% of the deposits of the banking system! The most that either there is a systemic bank, which followed the fall of Prominvest would mean the inevitable collapse of the banking system.
The decision on the allocation of refinancing to financial recovery process had taken promptly and individually. Sometimes without a properly issued at that time to ensure that dooformlyalos then.
Therefore, observations
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