Back into 2005
The growth of world stock indices today spoke in favor of the opening of Russian stocks in the green zone. However, the main driver of course is the rise in oil prices. Accordingly, oil and gas securities are now favorites bidding. In the sector, we continue to emphasize Rosneft, as the most promising feature in terms of future profits.
next year, Gazprom will buy gas from Azerbaijan. Deliveries will begin with a volume of 500 million cubic meters. m, and will grow. An alternative route for Azerbaijan is Nabucco. However, the implementation of anti-project depends primarily on the attitude of the Central Asian suppliers. And if the gas for Nabucco would be found, that Azerbaijan can take the course of the past, but Baku still has the extra advantage for trade with the West. In the current situation, the news is neutral for the shares of Gazprom. Now, first of all, the low score on multipliers provide attractive securities gas company.
Yesterday the annual meeting of shareholders of VTB, which in principle has no sensation. To bid on the RTS stock price was 3.43 VTB cop. Two years ago the price for the IPO placement of shares equal to 13.6 kopecks. And, of course, plan for optimizing the costs of the bank crisis is unlikely to become a major positive for the minority. In doing so, management expects losses in the bank this year. Market participants generally believe that the savings more attractive to the crisis than the VTB. Accordingly, the chances of growth in market capitalization at more savings. While probably a real picture of the quality of loan portfolios, is not nobody knows. A real crisis figures of delay will be known until the autumn.
Of course, if necessary, the State will always VTB support. Customers and investors VTB nothing threatening. However, the fate of minority shareholders not to be envied. They can only wait. A few years later, when the economy resumes growth, and VTB restrukturiruet their bad assets, the Bank will cost more. And perhaps with time shares VTB will cost more expensive than the price of accommodation. Buying shares is not in the market is more attractive pieces, especially in the oil and gas sector. Fix loss - a very foolish idea. VTB as Uryupinskavtobusteplovoz, share the third line, bought before the crisis. Investments frozen for an indefinite period. At the time of placement of shares VTB emergency preparedness DCF valuation of market participants had 14-16 cop., However, minorities VTB were the victims of the crisis the collapse of the capitalization of the global financial sector. Shareholders VTB were bad times and in bad spot.
MTS may go to the market of Kazakhstan. KazakhTelecom put up for sale 51% of the third operator of GSM-Mobile telecom service. Against a backdrop of uncertainty with the reform of Svyazinvest and risk minority MRK shares MTS remain our main thrust in the telecom sector.
The Russian stock market is now in front of uncertainty. There is a balance of bulls and bears. Approximately half of the market expects growth of up to 1500 items RTS index to the end of the year, about half - to reduce to 500 points. Marginalized waiting RTS index at 100 points and below, do not count. For pessimists rise to the current stock market levels has become a complete surprise, however, the market only zadiskontiroval cash flow crisis and a crisis level of oil prices (45-50 U.S. $ /bbl.), From our point of view it 900-1200 points RTS index.
optimists rely on oil prices, the rise of the commodity market has been optimistic the boldest predictions. The current level of oil prices, about 70 $ /barrel. Gives Corridor 1300-1500 on the RTS index. The situation in the view of optimists recalled in 2005, when the stock market has grown despite a large army of pessimists. And it is precisely this scenario we consider as a benchmark, we estimate its probability of 50%. Of course in 2005 was the idea - the liberalization of Gazprom shares market. Now, of course, such a powerful idea is not, however, a fundamental assessment, based on discounted cash flows, no one canceled. In a further market growth should be high oil, respectively, we, first of all, make bets on the main chip oil and gas sector. Our key ideas - Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazprom, MTS, MMC Norilsk Nickel.
Pessimists are based primarily on the value of the current macro-economic indicators. The pace of the fall in industrial output and GDP resemble lihie 90 th. However, it is once again recall that in the short and medium term, direct relationship between macroeconomic and stock market capitalization does not exist. At the same outcome in 2009 will be significantly better than the dark current values. First, high oil prices would be affected with a lag of 3-6 months for the real sector. Secondly, the effect of work. Economic decline began at the end of last year. Therefore a comparison of crisis of values with good pre-crisis months of last year, provides a significant percentage of the fall. Another advantage is the possible fall pessimists banking liquidity crisis in Russia due to the non real sector. Not the fact that the crisis will be. However, even if it happens, as we noted above, the Bank of Russia will repay its cash infusion. On the stock market can be high volatility, however, is not possible to collapse. If we talk about the situation in the world economy, it has not seen serious threats. However, the crisis, being vague, and the collapse of world indices and oil prices could become a new nightmare hedgehog. Alexei Kudrin said yesterday that the current price of oil overheated speculative and are likely to be adjusted in the future 6 months - year. Naturally, the fall in oil prices rise to new pressures on the ruble. The question whether the Bank of Russia will want to sacrifice its reserves remains an open question. In this case, is to rely on short-term deposits and bonds with a short Duration. This strategy is a low-risk and, if necessary, will allow for the transfer of investments in the currency. We estimate the probability of a negative scenario of 25%.
Neutral scenario assumes the current balance in the global commodity and the Russian stock market. His chance we estimate at 25%. In this case, yield the greatest return on bonds. Underestimation of the Russian companies on the cash flow will be towards the end of 2009, more obvious markets, and reassessment will be postponed until next year.
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