The market shares of the Russian Federation began trading on Monday, a moderate decline in the prices of most fallen under the pressure of world stock and commodity platforms.

Futures on the RTS index decreases by 6.6 point to the underlying asset, reflecting a moderately negative expectations of speculators. Indeed the major indices last week showed an increase after correction for 30% drop from the highs, and there is no evidence that the indicators have stabilized and are ready to form the lateral trend prior to the new wave of growth.

Rather, now formed the preconditions for quotes by the end of the quarter, and then we can see a new drop. The main restrictive zone when moving up now is the level of 1000-1010 points on the MICEX index, coinciding with the 14-periodnoy moving average. At the same time, even at current levels is visible weakness buyers - the index could not gain a higher mark of 970 points (ie, above 200-day Moving Average).

The increase, which is observed on individual securities, there is no trading volume and a correction or a character, or similar to the formation of a certain price for the closure of half of the year.

At the same time down the road almost free - is the first major support stands 870 points mark for the MICEX index - the bottom of April of this year, coincided with the lower Bollinger on a weekly schedule.

In fact, this decline can be done quickly - the lack of buyers in the previous fall, but also allowed a short position freeing the market for the deep failures.

The main negative in this period can be a negative image in foreign markets. In particular, the volume of liquidity in the U.S. stock market fell again, not allowing the Dow Jones pass mark 8500 items. Recall that in the range of 8500-9500 constituted a significant amount of sales from those who redeem this range in the fall of last year and now seeks to withdraw from the securities with zero loss.

In addition, a weak show quotes in oil prices - increasing the supply at prices above $ 60 as well as currency fluctuations are the cause for a local correction for the Petroleum quotes.

internal negative is the negative dynamics of the macroeconomic data, as well as the banking sector.

Thus, reasons for optimism are not yet there. We continue to maintain the share of the cache in the portfolio at least 70%, suggesting that any purchases now can be extremely risky.

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decided

During the III scientific-practical conference Topical issues of regulation in the telecommunications industry and the use of radio frequency resource of Ukraine, held last week, the National Commission for Communications Regulation of Communications (NCRC) has publicly outlined the main directions of its activities at the earliest possible time. First, Natskomissiya intends to mitigate the state regulation, which will work on the facilitation of market access.

According to the decision of the conference, one of the major tasks to improve the regulation of the market - a shift from licensing frameworks to operate in the telecommunications industry to the registry, which will significantly simplify the access of economic entities in the market of telecommunication services. Secondly, it is to tighten state regulation, at least with respect to the core activities telekommunikatorov. In particular, as is evident from the decision of the conference, special attention will be paid to the quality of telecommunications services: Tackling quality telecommunications services to institutional and legislative levels will help to safeguard the rights of consumers.

To perform this task properly, Natskomissiya decided to lay the material and even the scientific basis for a mechanism to regulate the quality telekomuslug. This deals with another item from the decision of the conference: To realize the full potential of professionals and scientists of great importance is the establishment of scientific and analytical laboratories to regulate telecommunications. It would be useful to draw attention telekomoperatorov the need for financial support for such a laboratory.

So, in the regulation of telecommunications sector, according to a member of NCRC Vladimir Zverev, the transition period begins: Our goal - to come to market self-regulation. This laboratory, believed to operators, as well as possible should reflect the meaning and philosophy of the self: the finansiruesh creation of laboratories, to pay its operation and then have to pay fines, if the laboratory identified certain violations of your hand. With this self-view telekommunikatory, and government regulation is not necessary.

So far, so good

However, NCRC believes that the transition to full self-regulation in the market too early. To begin with, according to Mr. Zverev, should facilitate access to the telecommunications market and introduce a registration system. That is, the operator wishing to enter the market, do not need to be, as now, to get two licenses (for radio frequency resource and the types of services) and to apply for the use of number resource, if it is needed. According to the director of the department of licensing and radio NCRC Vladimir Smolyar, will be revised licensing terms for the activities, and although the license for the use of radio frequency resource will remain, it will be only a technical permits.

As a result of following the imposition of the registration form entry into the market potential operators will need to apply much less zayavitelnyh documents, and they will be treated much faster. During the registration you will need to just get a license for radio frequency resource and the authorization to use the license resource, then the applicant will be included in a single register of operators and providers, as noted by Mr. Smolyar, already has drafted a detailed inventory of telecommunications services. And when the operator is registered, it will need to go to this inventory and note what types of services it intends to provide. Interestingly, if all of a sudden the registered operator violates the conditions of use of frequencies, they take it, but registration will remain, and he can again receive frequency.

Although in general the idea of simplifying access to telekomrynok is certainly pleased with the operators, the prospect of licensing the replacement for the registration is still somewhat concerned about the present at the discussion of players telekomrynka. There retorts: What is already working for operators? Restart will have to pay for registration? . But Vladimir Zverev hastened to reassure a fuss, that is already working to re-operators do not need, they will do so only after the expiry of their existing licenses, if you want them transferred. Besides telekomschiki began to be interested in, what happens when marketing them Not to any new service is not registered in the registration. To do this, Zverev said, would be capable of providing new services without being registered for the half year, during which the operator will need to apply early in their submission to the NCRC, and thus pay for it.

Another know-how, which is still hesitate NCRC may be the emergence of such concepts as the guarantor of the operator. That is, when newly registering the operator can specify a guarantor, which in case of liquidation will take the registrant to its network of subscribers. Click to continue »

On Monday accepted contrive new cases and to plan for the entire week. But when you look at charts of domestic securities and analyze the external news background, morale disappears. Shares of major Russian companies hung in narrow lateral bands run prices that do not allow to make a good profit, even with a strong desire and hard work. In the world there is indecision as to the Exchange, and on commodity markets.

Today, therefore, we prefer to stand aloof from the market movements and observe the situation from the outside.

Naturally we will keep your finger on the pulse, but will abstain from a particularly high-risk operations and unsecured sales. Today, our priority - to try to successfully sell shares of a second tier, acquired late last week.

If your portfolio is also available nizkolikvidnye the paper, you should remember that the nearest resistance for the shares CMI 14.3 rubles to the securities TMK 85 rubles for the shares of Mosenergo 1.5 rubles for shares Irkutskenergo 8.7 ruble Aeroflot 33,66 rubles, MTS 166.6 rubles, Rostelecom 160 rubles.

It seems that the hesitation reigning all week on foreign stock pads, referred to the Friday and the Russian exchanges. Trading in our stock market took raznonapravleno, and although there were several bright burst of speculative activity in securities Sberbank, MMC Norilsk Nickel and Polyus Gold, for more action came in a narrow side corridor. Even the fact that on Friday, many large companies had an annual meeting of shareholders little effect on the dynamics of prices.

Oil prices have not been able to provide adequate support for our actions. Although price levels of raw materials are high, but they have already primelkalis investors. To ensure that the quotations of oil found its guiding force for the domestic stock market, they must withdraw from the June lateralcorridors.

In the last working day of last week on the U.S. stock market winners bears. Bulls' defense kept only for shares of banks and financial companies. Especially poorly looked shares of American oil companies, which as well as Russian counterparts do not receive positive signals from the market of raw materials.

Dynamics ADRs echoed the ocean dynamics of quotations in Russia. Incomprehensible excessive interest shown by investors, securities GMK Norilsk Nickel. Reasons for the sharp spike of activity in the securities are likely to know only simple Throgmorton Street in the week. But now it is clear that a simple technical rebound Friday does not seem to conduct securities.

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From the early days of financial crisis, ZN given the subject utmost attention. On our pages discussed in detail severe downturn in the economy, the inflation problem, the negotiations with the IMF, the price jumps and the sharp decline in revenue. We could not fail to excite as useless and stupid the majority of government and the parliamentary anti-crisis measures, and the threat of default, the problem with the solvency of banks, currency speculation and lack of procedures for the refinancing of the bank.

from the PN were all possible points of view about what is happening - ministers and deputies, heads of regulatory and law enforcement agencies, academics and analysts, bankers and their clients, ambassadors, businessmen, lawyers. To complete the picture is not enough, perhaps, the views of only one of the most important desizhnmeykerov country - NBU chairman Volodymyr Stelmakh.

Today we

eliminates the gap. Of course, a great temptation to arrange a meeting in the first person National Bank interrogation bias for each of the huge backlog of issues. But hardly communicate in a similar vein, would be informative and useful. After all, the interview is not rubber, and delve into a discussion on a particular issue, we would not be able to hear the views of Vladimir Stelmakh on many other issues. In today's difficult situation for the society, which fell on the head of the crisis, the devaluation, the total negative, distrust, mutual accusations of politicians and politicians, much more important to try to find answers to the questions - Why wait for what to do and how to live on. Here is a version of the Heads of National Bank.

- Vladimir, how do you assess the current state of financial markets and banking system?

- Until very recently, when I asked this question, the easiest way was to tell the anecdote in response. The banker calls a colleague, and greeted, asked: How are you? - Heard in response: Okay. - Bormochet: Sorry, wrong number. And hang up.

in recent weeks in the financial system of Ukraine has shown clear signs of stabilization. First of all, it can be seen on the situation in the foreign exchange market. The Head of State has already voiced the information that the National Bank has even bought the currency on the interbank market, adding reserves. This, among other things, contributed to the strengthening of the market, and the official exchange rate of hryvnia to the dollar last month, more than 9 cop. (from 7,7 to 7,61 UAH /USD.), or 1.2%.

exchange stabilization occurred as a result, that the people calm, and thanks to the gradual alignment of the trade balance.

What would they say, the psychological aspect was one of the main factors of the devaluation of hryvnia. According to the balance of payments, from November 2008 to April 2009 the first increase in cash outside banks amounted to 7.1 billion dollars

significantly reduced foreign exchange remittances from guest workers, who also previously created a good influx of currency into Ukraine. Preliminary estimates indicate that private transfers from abroad during the five months of this year decreased by 23.7% and amounted to 1.47 billion dollars compared with 1.9 billion dollars over the same period of 2008.

reduce the passions and helped foreign exchange auctions to buy currency at the market under the non-cash repayment of loans to the public, small and medium-sized businesses. And since the beginning of May the situation has changed: a proposal to exchange cash market increased by almost one and a half times, outweigh the demand for $ 150 million

Stabilization of course positively affected the mood of investors. As banks began to slowly return deposits. If in the first quarter of this year, monthly growth of household deposits had negative value, in April and May they were already positive - 0,6 and 0,7% respectively. So we have even a small but strong trend of increasing population growth rate of deposits in the banking system. And deposits are growing both in national and foreign currencies.

helped improve the situation and the actions of the bank. In addition to these target auction sales of foreign currency to repay loans to individuals, and this continued support the liquidity of banks, and additional measures to stabilize the banks,and adequate interest policy. In particular, in order to consolidate the positive developments in the financial market and promote the economic development of the National Bank of Ukraine has declined from 15 June, the discount rate to
12 to 11%.

- One of the main factors that determine the level of confidence in the banks - the return of the frozen deposits. Please confirm, so lifted or not a moratorium on the early withdrawal of deposits? As banks are fulfilling their obligations to customers?

- The crisis affected most 25-27 banks, 15 of which put a temporary administration and declared a moratorium on compliance with the requirements of lenders. However, we plan to ensure that those banks which are now in relation to the moratorium has delayed payments, too, were obliged to implement them.

NBU

now preparing a document that a moratorium on the implementation of the commitments did not extend to the payment functions of the banks that they should be carried out in accordance with Article 47 of the Banking Act.

As for deposits, banks are obliged to pay in time, as soon expire during their deployment in the bank. Term of payment is linked to the fact that deposits were invested in bank assets. Generally, the investor must make a choice - either income on their money, or at any time have access to them. If the investor chooses the latter, it should put money into a current account or to rent a bank safe deposit box. But if the money invested in the bank for a specified period for the purpose of obtaining income, the investor must understand that this money will not lie on a shelf, and will be issued as a credit to another person (or entity). And if so, to obtain the money necessary to wait until the end of the term deposit.

- An important element in reducing panic population was the cessation of public accusations against the National Bank of Ukraine on the part of the Head of Government. What is more important cause of strengthening the hryvnia - the political or economic component?

- Of course, an end to the destructive debate has played an important positive role. When it's not, again the key role played by market forces, and are now course strengthened the market. As I said earlier, we have almost reached equilibrium in trade balance. Obviously, the forced devaluation occurred, however painful it may be perceived in society, and in the National Bank, began to show positive results.

positive factor was the resumption of cooperation with the IMF, the flow of trenches from which largely compensates for the outflow of currency in the financial account. And most importantly, the national economy also had an opportunity to shake in order to raise competitiveness, including through increased and product quality.

This shift to a flexible kursoobrazovaniyu contributed relatively rapid leveling of foreign trade deficits. Of course, the depreciation of UAH complicate maintenance of bank loans made in foreign currency. However, the current extreme conditions in this matter, in any case, there would be no easy answers. His ultimate escalation allowed to proceed to address the fundamental problems that began in March 2003.

As for the currency gap between bank loans and deposits, they should serve as a partial leveling program recapitalize the banking system. But only partially. Since the responsibility for these foreign exchange imbalances and must be borne by the banks for years to defend their right to an unconditional extension of foreign currency lending.

- Is there a real prospect for the further strengthening of the course, to the extent justified by the forecast of its eventual fall of destabilization?

- holdings in dollars, established by our commercial bank accounts in foreign banks now account for about
4 billion if the banks are now sold 1,5-2 billion dollars, the question of course would not stand.

To do this, we changed the method of calculating the monetary stance. However, some banks with foreign capital have taken in this matter destructive position, requiring a preferential and special treatment. I do not accept this approach.

Already

if foreign capital was settled on long-term entry into the banking system of Ukraine, then in his own interest to maintain the stability not only of the system, but the Ukrainian economy. Since the development of the sustainable development depends the ultimate effectiveness of the foreign investment. It is clear that today the domestic economy as well, and the world, is not the best of times. Exclusivity challenges that we are forced to confront the demands exceptional inherently decisions. Not surprisingly, some of them are strikingly discordant with the usual rules. However, accounting for reminding that some of the usual rules ultimately led to the upheavals that have more than one year, experiencing the world economy.

All stakeholders should be equal. And to work on the Ukrainian laws. We are willing to compromise on the timing or something else, but completely renounce their intentions are not going to.

During a recent visit to Switzerland, we learned about the experience of the central bank of this country and made a very important conclusion: the European Central Bank, is actively enforce individual regulations with respect to their banks, such as increased capital adequacy. I do not understand why we can not apply the same rules.

- What is now the main threat to the stability of the currency market and the financial system? What do you see the main problems hampering the restoration of confidence in the banking system?

- As before, now the main threat of destabilization - politics. And more precisely, ovladevshy overwhelming majority of our politicians and inconsumable, despite everything, the revolutionary enthusiasm of social populism. And it has all the other problems of the Ukrainian economy metastases.

confidence in the banking system depends primarily on the credibility of the hryvnia. And we, unfortunately, have not been able to adopt the status of the national currency as one of the main attributes of statehood. Dollarization only formal part of the Ukrainian economy to date, more than 30%. As I said, over the previous six months in the shadow took about $ 7 billion How much currency is under the pillow citizens - we can only assume.

We like to refer to the Chinese experience. So I'll tell you that in China's money supply is about 160% of GDP - this is where the level of monetization. But there is no problem, since a large portion of these funds lies with the deposits in banks, the propensity to save which, as in Japan, is very high.

As we begin to move in that direction - this is one of the key issues that determines the stability and the hryvna, and the availability of investment resources, and its value.

We also see almost the entire housing market, both primary and secondary, was actually completely built on a monetary basis. And not only on credit, but estimated. After all, when to buy and sell real estate only in the accounts shall include the amount of UAH, and reduced several times, because nobody wanted to pay extra charges. And all the basic calculations were carried out mostly in foreign currency.

because there was a huge turnover of the currency as the market land prices due to the housing deficit grew as a yeast, with more whip on foreign bank loans. That's because real estate sector has been focused on commercial lending, has a high income.

- Why is the National Bank does not prohibit foreign loans? Because they were cheaper for the economy?

- What currency loans have been cheaper - it is fiction. With insurance, hidden commissions and similar features banks bring their value up to 46% per annum. This shows our audit.

Why not restricted currency loans? It is very difficult to make such decisions in a country where everyone wanted to quickly zazhit well. Construction, which was one of the main engines of economic growth, there must be a makeup credit resources, which were mostly in foreign currency. Therefore, to limit foreign currency loans would stifle their own growth.

Whether currency lending long debated in the NBU Board. A collective decision was in favor of maintaining this type of lending.

- whether it should be understood that you salute adopted by the Verkhovna Rada of this week a ban on foreign currency loans?

- no doubt. As I said, its capacity has been one of the main causes of the financial sector the major imbalances. On the existence of the greatest risks National Bank warned bankers and people in recent years a number of occasions. Many bankers are not heeded these warnings, the years defending their right to an unconditional extension of foreign currency lending. So, once again, the responsibility for these currency imbalances must be borne by the banks themselves.

- Then why is the National Bank was unable to stimulate low-cost loans in UAH?

- Let's clearly having accents. When it comes to providing low interest rates in terms of inflation, then someone must pay the creditor the difference between the rate under which they agree to lend money, and one that could make a borrower. Such arrangements are being successfully operated in including in the Ukraine - I am referring to the budget of the compensation cost of credit for different categories of borrowers.

Another point is that the funds for such compensation in the budget is not as big as anyone would. But that is not subject to central bank. Reduce the price of loans by issuing means impossible: Issue of unsecured money for any, even the good causes would lead to their devaluation, inflation and further accelerate the growth of prices of credits. What are the budgetary costs to cut in order to increase the amount of compensation of interest rates on loans and what categories of borrowers, through such a mechanism to maintain - it is the exclusive competence of the government and parliament.

in 2005, when I returned to work at the National Bank, 937 thousand families in need of better living conditions. To solve this problem, it was necessary to give an 8 bln. loans for three to four years. Now the housing needs of 1 million 250 thousand families, and the price issue has risen to 12-15 billion
grn. targeted credits for up to five years. Select the resources - not a problem for the National Bank, however, but to ask for money, nobody wanted to and now does not want to deal with this problem seriously.

much more profitable to engage in the provision and resale of land for development. Why fight for the decline in prices, if their growth has officials fantastic profit?

Even

initiative to complete the construction of residential facilities readily 50% and higher, which could help to revive not only the construction sector, we could not bring to mind. The issue of credit for the state, especially in construction, has always been linked to the policies that we have a very mercantile. And where the National Bank is included in the work, everything must be transparent, difficult to deal with corruption. Therefore, we do not want to work.

- With regards to transparency. Maybe you did explain what motivated the decision to multibillion loans to individual banks to refinance?

- If you remember, the story began not with the bank Nadra, but with Prominvest. His problem, admittedly, have a surprise for us - we thought that a wise Matviyenko (Chairman of the PIBA. - Author.) Will not allow such a situation. Started panicking, which were under attack and other major banks, particularly those who had no major foreign parent institutions, but it was all the more deposits. Among them was the bank Nadra, which had 700 branches, 2 million depositors with deposits of almost 11 billion UAH. (at 01.10.08) - 5% of the deposits of the banking system! The most that either there is a systemic bank, which followed the fall of Prominvest would mean the inevitable collapse of the banking system.

The decision on the allocation of refinancing to financial recovery process had taken promptly and individually. Sometimes without a properly issued at that time to ensure that dooformlyalos then.

Therefore, observations

Chamber, by the way, they were all basically on the formal, even closer to a political basis, rather than actually takes decisions on the allocation of refinancing. The main claim for the majority of the NBU regulations is that they were not registered with the Ministry of Justice. But the claim is related regulations that were adopted for the entire system and are the regulations. А тех постановлений, которые принимались в индивидуальном порядке для каждого банка, эта норма не касается, поскольку это ведомственный акт.

И так практически по каждому пункту акта проверки Счетной палаты - у нас были свои объяснения, доводы и замечания. Причем поскольку это общественно-резонансный вопрос, то были решения правления, а не мои лично. Так вот, если вы, журналисты, хотите разобраться в этом вопросе не поверхностно, а серьезно, мы готовы предоставить вам материалы проверки Счетной палаты и наши. Click to continue »