Now little is happening in the market. On the morning of the Russian market cannon within 2% on the background of good statistics from China: a four month growing EMI, meaning more than 50 points. Against that backdrop, yesterday's evening sale of redemption. Better look securities market of Gazprom, the market looks worse than the banking sector. Today went a lot of macroeconomic statistics, as will data on oil reserves in the United States. Therefore, the market traded in a narrow sideways range. The market is in anticipation of this, participants will respond to the fact.

This week is short (in the U.S. on Friday a holiday, tenders will not), but rich in terms of statistics. Next week, the U.S. will begin the corporate records. The Russian market is in anticipation of a news background, which will take place in the coming days. This may allow to overcome this side-corridor. In my view, the withdrawal must be down, because along with the reporting season will be sobering rally after the second quarter, and markets several ostynut, revert to lower levels. While sales in the market there, so any attempts to force in a rapidly shall be purchased.

Click to continue »

World stock markets

While the EU has witnessed an improvement in consumer sentiment, confidence in the U.S. economy, the level of which reflects a calculated research organization Conference Board index, by contrast, fell. In June, the indicator fell to 49.3 points in comparison with 54.9 point a month earlier, and market-consensus forecast of 55.3 points.

Major U.S. stock indexes finished the last trading session in the red. Dow Jones Industrial Average reduced 0,97% and the root at the level of 8447 points, Standart Poor's 500 has become smaller at 0.85%, stopping at around 919.32 item loss Nasdaq Composite was 0.49% (1,835.04 points).

mass sale of shares in companies yesterday were subjected to the U.S. financial sector. Thus, investors reacted to news of an increase in the 1 quarter of the proportion of delays for the prime mortgage loans for a period of 60 days or more - up to 2.9% of total loans. Paper Morgan Stanley cheaper by 2%, Citigroup - to 1,7%, JPMorgan Chase - at 1.4%. Shares AIG collapsed by 13% after reports that European banks sold derivatives to generate significant risks for a longer time than previously thought: reduction in the value of this portfolio may have a serious negative impact on the consolidated financial statements AIG.

Despite the fall in the bid Tuesday, the U.S. stock market ended yesterday completed the second quarter growth of 10-15%.

On Wednesday morning, the site of the Asia-Pacific region traded in the red, futures on the American little young. Stock Exchangeof Hong Kong are closed today due to holiday.

Metals Market

The June results of bidding for the London Metal Exchange have been less impressive in comparison with the spring months - the growth of most metals slowed, zinc and tin, and is cheaper.

Nickel went in June to 10.3% after the May increase in 19%, copper has risen in price by 3% (an increase of 9% in May), the cost of lead has increased since the first years of the month at 7.6% (growth May 18%). Inventories of nickel and copper on the LME declined for the month by 1% and 15% respectively, the stocks of lead rose by 16%.

A striking exception to the general background was the aluminum - podeshevev in May at 4%, he vybilsya leaders in the growth of the value in June, adding 13%. In doing so, his stocks at LME warehouses rose by 4% to another record at 4.398 million tons, which is 4 times greater than its reserves at the same date last year.

At the cost of metals in June influenced by two main factors - the purchase of metal by China and the dollar. The significance of the first factor is likely to weaken in the short term. Recall that a couple of days ago, the Chinese Government has officially confirmed the information to stop buying metal held in order to replenish the national reserves.

Regarding the outcome of the first half of 2009, there remained the leader lead and copper, added for the six months more than 60% of the cost. Aluminum remains the outsider with the increasing prices at 6%.

oil market

neftefyuchersy yesterday again declined in price. The August Brent contract class had dropped in price on 2,4% - to 69.3 dollars per barrel mark WTI crude oil lost 2.2% of market value and recorded value of $ 69.89 per barrel.

On Wednesday evening, U.S. Department of Energy traditionally publish weekly data on the fuel market. Market participants expect that in the week from 20 to 26 June, the commercial reserves of distillates rose by 1.5 million barrels, gasoline stock rose by 2 million barrels.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), publishes its own statistics on the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, crude oil stocks in the United States declined during the period under review at 6.8 million barrels.

Today in the morning black gold is increasing in price, adding approximately 0.3%.

Russian Market

The fall of Russian stock indexes in June (at 9.3% for the RTS index and 13.5% on MICEX) overshadowed the domestic market during the second plan as compared to other emerging markets, and now it does not look so attractive in the eyes foreign investors. However, in the event of a renewed rise of the stock market participants are ready to move again.

the next trading session is not saturated output of vital statistics data. Institute for supply management will publish the index of activity in the manufacturing sector for the month of June (ISM Manufacturing) at 18:00. At the same time, will be released May figures for the construction and sales data for homes in the United States.

now expect divergent dynamics of the Russian stock indexes.

Click to continue »

Around the world there are not many countries that have so far not announced the official information on the status of economic development in the 1st quarter. These, along with Ukraine, and Zimbabwe belongs ...

yesterday in Ukraine was a sort of day. Officially, he notes, the truth, December 5, but June 30, almost the peak day demand for the State Statistics Committee and, accordingly, visit the official page of this department.

In fact, yesterday

expired 90 days after completion of the first quarter, which should be declared on the dynamics of the GDP in January-March 2009. On the statistical map of the world there are not many countries that have so far not announced the official information on the status of their economic development in the first quarter. Symptomatically that these, along with Ukraine, and Zimbabwe belongs.

Few doubted that the announced data on the outcome of the economic development of Ukraine in the first quarter of record decline in the economy in the 22-23 per cent. Against the background of these expected numbers, even apocalyptic prognosis Pinzenik in his famous memorandum already looks like euphoria. «Figures economic recession in the first quarter of 2009 - said the former Minister of Finance in the memorandum, the authorship of which he so publicly, and not admitted - will be far worse than I had demonstrated as a projection at a government meeting. A demonstrated reduction of the then Minister of Finance Economy at 7-10 per cent.

It is this reduction in their economies - from 7 to 10 percent - are not shy at all the people to accept the developed world economy. For example, the official forecast for Ireland - reducing the economy by 10 percent this year, while export-oriented Germany in the first quarter (year to year) officially recognized by 7 per cent decline. The Ukrainian Government has so far stubbornly swear black is white and holds its initial macroeconomic forecast 0.4 percent growth for 2009.

There is no doubt that, in contrast to today's official report from the State Statistics Committee on the reduction of one-fifth the volume of the Ukrainian economy in the first quarter of the government have prepared antidotes. Chief mesidzh that we hear today - the information is outdated, and the revival of the economy there. We have the statistics not only to hide (eg, data on Treasury bill and the full information on the implementation of the budget), but decide that it is cast on the table and how to garnish.

example, on 24 June, Prime Minister of Ukraine announced good news: The Pension Fund through his professional work the system even in the face of grave crisis in June, brought together by 4,5% more than in June, the success of 2008. There is no reason not to believe such information is not available. Most likely, the way it is, but such a statement serves as a textbook example of selective treatment of information and the deliberate exclusion of the data from the general flow of information. Click to continue »

Yesterday's auction began with the Russian market gepa up, after which growth continued, allowing the MICEX index to overcome the level of 1010. However, the bulls were not able to hold at these levels, and the market went into corrective movement that has led to levels of market opening. After the release of statistics on an index of consumer confidence (Consumer Confidence, of paragraph 49.3, expected 55.3 points), the decline has increased, resulting in a market move to the negative territory. Worse than the market finished the day the paper Rostelekom and Sberbank, a decline which was 4.5%. The company he was Norilsk Nickel, Polyus Gold and Surgutneftegas drop which amounted to 4%. Better the market closed, Tatneft (4.5%) and Mosenergo (0.77%). At the end of the trading the MICEX index lost 1.8%, ending the day at 971.55.

In American markets, there was moderately positive opening, but the statistics of ruined the mood of investors. After the release of data on the market, a wave of sales, which increased indices of negative territory. In the middle of the day, the restoration of the lost positions, which allowed the index to reduce the daily loss. At the end of the trading Dow Jones Indexes and the S P500 declined by 0.98% and 0.85% respectively. The loss index NASDAQ was 0.5%. At the morning session, the index futures on the S P500 is trying to overcome the level of 920 points.

oil quotas, after our closing, fell to 68.5, and then began corrective movement. As a result, by 10 am today, futures for Brent crude oil is traded under the mark of 70 $ /barrel.

Today, we expect a positive opening for our market. The partial restoration of oil quotes and overseas sites to support the opening of bulls. However, Scared decline yesterday evening and in anticipation of the statistics, perhaps the players will act cautiously, that will result in lateral movement after the opening. In doing so, it is likely that today's auction will be held on yesterday, and the script closer to the evening, against a background of falling, we can see that lowering the indices below the closure Tuesday.

Click to continue »