United States

Futures on the SP 500 index increased by 0.2%. Today the U.S. markets are closed. Tomorrow, Independence Day.

Europe

European markets moderately reduced at low volumes. European FTSE Eurotop 100 index -0.52%, Britain's FTSE 100 -0.18%, German Xetra Dax -0.61%, French Lyxor Cac 40 -0.64%.



Data on retail sales in the euro area have been worse than expectations. The volume of retail sales in the euro area in May fell by 0.4% in the month and 3.3% annualized. Expected to decrease by 0.1% and 2.7%. Even business activity in the service sector. Supply Managers Index (Euro-zone Flash PMI) for services in the euro area in June, 44.7. Analysts Forecast: 44.5. Previous value: 44.5.

Second day worse than the market shares of mining companies. Again reduced the prices of base metals. As leaders of the fall of copper, losing in the price of nickel, lead and zinc. Vedanta Resources -2.5%, Antofagasta -2.3%, Rio Tinto -1.7%, Xstrata -1.7%. Better the market shares of banks, despite the decline in the financial sector in the United States. HSBC 1.6%, Barclays 1.6%, Commerzbank 1.4%, Deutsche Bank 1.3%, Lloyds 1.1%.

Oil

Oil prices yesterday, lost 4% against a background of negative data from the U.S. labor market, signals a deep recession. Spot Brent $ 66.03, WTI $ 67.03. Futures in the neutral zone.

Russia

The market opened in the neutral zone, then went negative. At 16:00 Moscow time the MICEX index falling by 1%, 1.47% for the RTS. Trading volume on the MICEX stock market at low levels and account for 25 billion rubles.

Shares of oil and gas sector continues otygryvat decline in oil prices. Novatek -3.3% -2.7% Tatneft, Gazprom -1.8% -0.6% Lukoil. Shares of gas companies worse than the market against the backdrop of statistics. Gas production in Russia in I half of 2009. decreased by 21%, Gazprom's production over the same period fell by 25%. Better sector shares 0.1% Surgutneftegaz, Rosneft, -0.1%. Surgutneftegaz has entered into commercial operation of a new field in East Siberia-Alin in the republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Rosneft re a 93.12% Vankornefti - the licensee for one of its biggest fields. Proved and probable reserves on the international classification - nearly 450 million tons of oil field, one of the main projects, Rosneft.

In the metallurgical sector, the reduction of nickel back worse GMK Norilsk Nickel -2.4%, 2.1% NLMK, MMK 0.9%, Severstal -0.3%. Declining shares of banks. Bank -1.8% -0.8% VTB. Worse than the market shares of energy companies. TGC-5 -5.8%, -4% RusGidro, OGK-3 -3.5%, OGK-2 -3.4%. Are stocks IDC, which grow on the news of the transfer of inter-regional distribution companies to a single share in 2011 to better market Uralkaliy 4.5% against a background of higher prices for potash in the III quarter of 2009. 20%.

Outlook

Activities today remain very low, since the trades in the United States would not. The important statistics as well. Against a background of low activity and the volume is not deleted an attempt to enhance the game to close.

From the technical point of view, the market again yesterday, tested the level of 1000 points, which was unable to pass. Now check the strength levels of support 950 and 930 points. If they do not succumb, the market direct road to the level of 880 points. Speculators, I recommend to stay away from the market, the medium-term investors to build positions in securities at lower levels of 930-950 points, I recommend a long-term investors to hold the position.

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At our market shares have continued selling that began last night after not fulfilled the hopes of payrolls. Reduced not only our market, but European stock indicators go all lower after disappointing data on retail sales in the euro (-3.3% in May, when the forecast -2.7%). Of course, at the European sites decrease less expressed (DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.2%), but in a more dramatic reaction of the market to external factors is already used to. Reducing quotes blue chips to this point in time is 4%. Stronger than the other leaders of the recent fall recovery - paper Sberbank (prefy as well obychki), Tatneft (-3.7%) and MMC Nornikel (-3.3%). The most resistant to reduction of paper were NLMK, Polyus Gold and Uralkali - they even show a small increase of 2% a-term drop in the MICEX Index. This support has Uralkali shares news of an increase of 20% of prices for potassium chloride for Russian producers of complex fertilizers, as well as the expectations of the imminent signing of contracts for the supply of fertilizers in India. From the Paper second tier is to first of all shares of Holding IDC (7%), which soared in value after the alleged transfer of inter-regional distribution companies to a single event by 2011 and even though the reorganization scheme, and the participation of the parent holding company in the unknown , market participants have begun to reduce the difference between the current capitalization of the company and the value of its shareholdings in MFC. Surely stick and regional securities firms, after it became aware of the buying CEO of Svyazinvest E. Yurchenko, large blocks of shares Uralsvyazinform (0.44% PC), Volgatelekoma (1.82%) and North-West Telecom (1.32%). Recall that a few days ago, E. Yurchenko declared intention to become a shareholder of all the daughters Svyazinvest, so it is possible that in the coming days we will know the relevant purchases and other securities. Given that going to the major portfolios, such purchase in a dormant trades on the Russian stock market could provide substantial support for the securities of the telecom quotes. Perhaps it is we are seeing now.



We do not expect changes in the market situation in today's auction. Closed on the U.S. means that there will be no release of statistics, or sudden movements at 17.30 Moscow time, when bidding opened at the NYSE. On the contrary, the steady slide downward, and the absence until the end of the day factors that can change this trend may lead to a closing can be seen burst marzhin-call on individual chips.

We do not believe that, despite a significant drop in quotes blue chips in recent days, now it makes sense to buy podeshevevshie paper. Better yet remain aloof.

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no fresh ideas, forward to reducing the rates of CB

yesterday on debt and money markets is issued ordinary rather boring day bivalyutnaya basket weak mark traded around 36.85 rubles. This morning, because of fallen prices of oil market opens closer to 36.90 rubles. The only thing we would like to draw attention to the one positive point: the beginning of the month, despite the dynamics of oil and exchange rate, expected rate of NDF went down.

At the debt market continues a smooth (10-20bp on the day) increase in the most liquid bond quotations of 1-st and 2 nd tier. It seems that it happens, primarily because the market has created expectations ordinary konsensuns-lowering key interest rates of Central Bank in the next week or two. Yesterday we noticed that very actively traded bonds RZhD: Issue RZhD-12 (YTP 14.78%) gained at a cost of about 30bp, about 20bp went RZhD-16 (YTP 14.74%). At first, after placing the paper can not grow out of the large volume of suggestions, but now seems to be distributed among the participants of the bond market more evenly.

Moskomzaym also yesterday announced that the July 8, will hold a placement new release Moscow 63 to 15 billion due in October 2014. Last week, Moscow has already deployed approximately 20.3 billion of new debt. Recall that while the city plans to place another order of 16 billion rubles. Some are concerned that the last chapter Moskomzayma S. Pakhomov did not rule out another increase in borrowing program this year. A particular reaction in the secondary market, the news has not caused.

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In Bond Market You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trades on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market.

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To date, according to sources Comments in the Ministry of Finance, the monthly treasury cash gap of about 5 bln. Last week, First Vice-Premier Alexander Turchinov sent to ministries and departments instructed to seek additional sources of filling the treasury, and new ways to achieve budgetary savings

an invaluable service in latanii budget holes Government had the deputies. Despite the opposition to regional, June 23, the Verkhovna Rada has made corrections to the Budget Code (bill number 2709), which effectively excluded from the parliamentary budgetary policy. In particular, according to an updated version of a document of the Cabinet of Ministers in its sole discretion, will be able to review the social safety nets, pensions and other social payments, as well as in manual mode to transfer transfers between regions and gospomosch between different sectors of the economy. Why will not fail to take advantage of Yulia Tymoshenko is in a severe budget deficit. However, this requires that the act appeared Presidential autograph. And Viktor Yushchenko is unlikely to want to make a gift for the premiere.

But the signing of edits to the law on state budget for the current year, by increasing excise taxes on beer - the question of practical solutions. The same day, June 23, the people's elected representatives have adopted a bill (№ 4503) was amended by removing it from irritating the guardian of the rule of the direction of 97 mln. derived from additional funds to finance their needs, thus enabling the Cabinet to collect in excess of the plan for 300 mln. A successful attempt to change the taxation in the middle of the year razzadorila MOF. Now there considering the possibility of beer attributed to the category of alcoholic beverages, thereby requiring all traders to buy pennym beverage license for its implementation. At the same time the Government intends to initiate an increase in excise tax on fortified wines.

Another portion of the Ministry of Finance intends to bring through better management of state property. Lack of effective control over the objects belonging to the State, and as a result of low rents (6-9 grn./m2) do not contribute to filling the coffers, lamenting in the Ministry of Finance. Share of income from the rental income in the state budget remains stable low - at 0.25 --
0.29% of total revenues. The Fund has not been able to conduct an inventory of state property in time, to streamline the registration of legal persons and to collect reliable information. As a result, a large number of state is outside the public administration, leading to significant losses of income, - said a source in the Ministry of Finance. To remedy the situation, the Government intends to make an inventory of rental agreements.

Replenish Treasury Cabinet also going through the rapid sale of written off vein technique, which, according to the Ministry of Finance, would gain from 300 to 600 mn.

According to experts, in search of additional revenue the government will increase production gosobligatsy. According to the chief consultant of Institute of Verkhovna Rada of the law professor Alexander Kirichenko, thus Cabinet before the end of the year expects to attract up to 15 bln. In fact, it was a budgetary issue loan. Today, the Ministry of Finance produces little OVDP, these securities may be greater, the bond should be the target - under construction, science and innovation, and education. Click to continue »