There Will Be Blood

Russia

The Russian stock market at yesterday's auction a bit lost in market capitalization: RTS index fell by 1.8%, the MICEX index fell by 3.5%. The volume of trades on the RTS stock exchange amounted to $ 2.4 billion, of which $ 1.4 billion was accounted for by the term market instruments, the MICEX Stock Exchange Section natorgovala at 177.7 billion rubles., If we look at the paper included in the index, the turnover amounted to 59.5 billion rubles.

morning at the bulls did not close the gap down even more, they even did not take to the effective attempts. Night indices have gone after the oil prices and macroeconomic statistics, but contrary to my expectations of this happened not in the last hour of bidding, a little earlier. Not bad paper looked black and steel companies in the electricity industry started in revaluation effects of the liberalization of the market - not yet in favor of generating companies.

Europe

Old World Index fell by an average of 2.5%, after the devastating experiences of unemployment in the euro area (9.5%) and other macroeconomic statistics anything to please the players could not. The ECB left the main interest rate unchanged, most likely agency Trichet will wait until the last action of the Fed, which in turn will wait until the last.

America

indexes fell on the New World 2,6-2,9% after the devastating experiences of unemployment in the United States (there as in Europe, the unemployment rate was 9.5%), but not even the very magnitude of the level, the maximum since 1983, affected the market, and what growth rate the number of unemployed people are not in a hurry to fall. Crashes of sales in the automotive sector has caused the collapse of shares automakers, and not only in the United States (U.S. automakers still have not read that, unless Ford, the other bankrupt claims) - fell mostly stock car in Europe and Japan.

Despite a solid cushion of money that accrued from international investors, which makes markets grow, to ignore the widening gapbetween stock market and the real sector of the economy becomes impossible. I hope that next season will soon begin reporting to arrange, if not all, many of the points i (ie I can not wait for positive change in the corporate sector).

raw materials, currency, etc.

Industrial metals at auction in London, graduated neutral trading day, rising only a nickel: appears on the metal as a high-spirited local updates and annual maximums, as the immediate goals, I would have identified the $ 18000 and $ 21000 per tonne.

gold once again cannon of resistance at $ 940, thanks largely to the strengthening U.S. currency, which has steadfastly holds strike by the Chinese comrades, just need a change of world reserve currency. Behavior of Chinese looks strange - they are buying dollars as readily as before, but in the case of a reserve currency, who prevents them unilaterally to buy Euro or SDR?!

Oil continues to fall: to mark Brent futures traded slightly above $ 66.5, to mark WTI futures were slightly higher than $ 66.75. In principle, oil $ 66 - this level of support, if the Bears by selling it, it can be expected to reduce the quotations in the area of $ 57-60.

Statistics and Reporting

At 12-00 (Moscow time) is published index of business activity in the euro area services, in the 12-30 (ICN) is a similar indicator for the UK, 13-00 (Moscow time) published data on retail sales in the euro area. In the United States today off to celebrate Independence Day, but for some time key overseas futures are still with us.

Outlook

I look forward to the start of the trading on the Russian stock market to break down within the limits of 1-1,5%, if oil rises to the top of trades even slightly higher, it becomes an argument in favor of attempting to purchase the gap. Invent anything new will not be - the market will still go for oil, if the Russian-dominated parties, or the global marketplace if our market for non-stop.

It is heartening that investors and speculators began to pay attention to fundamental factors. Monetary pumping certainly doing its dirty work and makes a significant distortion in the behavior of the market, but at the same time, a growing number of alternatives that might qualify for Processing spatter-dock. The most likely alternative seems to flow of capital from the stock market in the currency market: many bankers set for the second phase of the devaluation of the ruble - CBR withdrew the previously imposed restrictions on currency transactions, oil went below, and this will inevitably affect the rate, experts from banking community say that lay in their forecasts of a lower rate, at last the real sector could hardly breathe. In general, I would not deceive ourselves, and screaming that there are lots of other ways where this money is attached, I am convinced that.

I look forward to the start of the trading on the Russian stock market to break down within the limits of 1-1,5%, if oil rises to the top of trades even slightly higher, it becomes an argument in favor of attempting to purchase the gap. Invent anything new will not be - the market will still go for oil, if the Russian-dominated parties, or the global marketplace if our market for non-stop.

It is heartening that investors and speculators began to pay attention to fundamental factors. Monetary pumping certainly doing its dirty work and makes a significant distortion in the behavior of the market, but at the same time, a growing number of alternatives that might qualify for Processing spatter-dock. The most likely alternative seems to flow of capital from the stockmarket in the currency market: many bankers set for the second phase of the devaluation of the ruble - CBR withdrew the previously imposed restrictions on currency transactions, oil went below, and this will inevitably affect the rate, experts from banking community say that lay in their forecasts of a lower rate, at last the real sector could hardly breathe. In general, I would not deceive ourselves, and shouted that the people and financial institutions have a lot of free money, therefore they throw to buy shares, there are lots of other ways where this money is attached, I am convinced that.

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