Fall term market, with low activity of participants

On Monday, the short-term market remained extremely low bidders. FORTS volume amounted to 31 billion rubles, while the average for the five trading sessions - 39 billion rubles. Volatility in the Russian market demonstrates the urgent uncertainly growing. Index OVI, calculated FK Opening, rose from 60.4 to 62.8 points. VIX volatility index has increased from 28 to 29 points (during the trading session the index exceeded 30 points). Increased volatility in both Russia and abroad shows the overall increase of nervousness among the bidders in advance of the corporate reporting season for the second quarter of 2009.

RTS Index lost 3.0%, its futures fell by 3,7%. Spread widened from -19 to -24 points (-2.6%). The number of open positions in the contracts on RTS declined by 1%. Participants continued to withdraw from the market in anticipation of important ideas for the trade. At the market in July of options on the RTS players included in the call to страйке 90 000 in anticipation of rebound quotations. The implicit volatility in this страйке increased from 50 to 54 points.

Quotations bank futures during the main trading session were under less pressure. Contracts Sberbank lost 0.3%. Information that VTB will place shares at 180 billion rubles put pressure on the Bank's main futures and evening session. The losses amounted to 2.7% and 1.3% respectively.

In general, the evening session brought some optimism to the flash market. Contracts for the RTS rose by 0.5%. Supporting quotes provided U.S. site, closed trading session in positive zone on the data on an index of business activity in the area of non-United States.

Monday quotes oil pushed from 200-day average. On Tuesday in the United States will be published preliminary data on oil and petroleum products. This information can either help gain higher rates of this important level, or push quotes to lower levels.

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Yesterday's negative in the western areas and the decline in oil futures to a level of 63 dollars per barrel of oil entered the Russian market at the peak. Thus, on the first day of the week, the MICEX index dropped more than 5.0%, while his fellow dollar - the RTS - to 3.0%. Following the closure of Russia's markets have stabilized the situation: SP 500 futures is at a level 893 item, oil futures have returned almost to the level of 64 dollars per barrel and consolidated to reach the.

Accordingly, the external background, formed before the opening of the Russian stock exchanges, can be described as favorable.

Height blue chips at the opening was about 1%. Among the leaders of growth allocated shares of oil and gas - Gazprom JSC (1.2%), Surgut up (1.2%), and representatives of energy-RusGidro AB (1.5%). Under the pressure of shares of gold mining companies are: Polyus Gold SA (-1.3%), Polymetal (-1.2%), as well as representatives of the mining and metallurgical industries: GMKNorNik AB (-0.2%), Severstal JSC (-0 , 1%).

give more momentum with today's live trading can only statistics from the UK, there will be data on industrial production. But most likely this will come with a negative sign, which once again can put pressure both on the European markets, as well as on the Russian stock market.

From the technical point of view, the RTS index also looks weak. After puncture of the ascending trend line (Blue line in the figure), which passes through the local minima in March and April of this year, developed a medium-term objective in the region of 700 points. Thus, now the market is in a descending trend.

Monday Bear was an important level of holes along the Fibonacci series - 38.2%, so the chance of further decline is still very high. Now the goal, Bears will be the level of 50%, which corresponds to 850 points on the RTS index, it is possible that we will achieve it by the end of the week.

Talking about the turn of a downward trend could be only in the case of Perforation RTS index down trend line that is marked on the graph in red.

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