MICEX Index is at the level of April: in the spring market?

The Russian stock market trading week on finalizing minor note. MICEX Index during the week lost 100 points, or more than 10%, falling to the outcome of each session. Start of today's trading day was positive, which is defined pereprodannostyu domestic stock at the finish of yesterday's trading session. But the collapse of prices for black gold and the decline in futures on the indices in the United States during the trading session led to the spread and the market return index in negative territory. As a result, the MICEX index back to levels in April 2009, a correction from the highs exceeded 28%. Potential technical reduction of about 10% of the 200-day moving in a region of 800 points. By the end of trading session of the sale are likely to prevail because of the reporting season for market participants is preferable to stay away from the market. At the same time, the closing of short positions can trigger rebound from the minima of the day. Support to the end of the session can make the lower limit of the downstream channel, formed in early June.

Next week promises to be quite volatile, because, in addition to saturated macroeconomic background, to influence the course of bidding will be reports of western companies. Start set record Goldman Sachs (Tuesday), would also be interesting reporting Bank of America and General Electric. From the macroeconomic statistics should provide data on industrial production in Japan, the Eurozone and the United States, but the most interesting data presented by promproizvodstvu in China, which in recent months, traditionally supported by the quotations of raw materials. According to projections, promproizvodstvo in China in June will be 9.4%. Also important are data on production and consumer prices the United States. A key can be called the statistics on retail sales in the Americas on Tuesday. The situation on the currency market will be determined by the dynamics of commodity prices, where the technical capacity of the movement to a level of $ 55 per barrel. Provoke a test of this level may rise in U.S. gasoline stocks, which will undoubtedly have an impact on the Russian currency. During the current week, the ruble weakened the dollar by more than 2%, which influenced the RTS index, which now Breaks down the bottom of the short-term ascending channel.

Shares of Russian oil and gas sector have demonstrated a reduction of the background of the negative dynamics of oil prices, which remained level at the time of $ 60 per barrel. Technically, the majority of papers in the session are consolidated on the strong support and if the situation deteriorates in commodity markets after the closing, they may be holes on Monday at the opening. It is therefore recommended to stay away from purchases of neftyanki.

As the reporting season, sold to market participants and bank paper. However, speculative investors, I recommend viewing this stock - next week they will show high volatility.

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The Bank of England yesterday, despite dominating the market expectations, left, on the basis of the June session of the same amount of its purchase of assets at 125 billion pounds sterling.

must be pointed out that the British Chamber of Commerce believes that the Central Bank of that country shall apply to the Government for an increase in the action under the policy of quantitative easing, as the restoration of the British economy after the recession is not yet guaranteed. According to the House leadership, BoE to increase the program to 150 billion pounds sterling, and ask the government permission to even greater expansion.

Guide UK Central Bank will re-examine the possibility of changing the size of repurchase of assets at the August meeting. However, at this point, it appears that both the Fed and the Bank of England has already demonstrated that they are rather active in the field of monetary incentives in financial markets, effectively push to do the same financial regulatory structure in continental Europe.

Against the backdrop of the accelerating downturn in the credit and investment segment of the EU countries in this position, until recently, a fundamental guarantee of the stability of the world, including - European financial markets may have a significant impact on the willingness of leading the Central Bank of the European Union to intensify their actions to quantitative easing monetary policy.

characteristic in this context to a statement issued yesterday by the PRC leadership on the need to reform the global monetary system, which also increased the increasing pressure on exchange rates euro, pound sterling and Swiss franc. China, which is another economic leader in the opposition credit crunch is likely to also be interested in enhancing the anti-crisis measures by the European leadership.

Against the backdrop of yesterday, increasing the rate to the level of CHF 1.5110 per euro and 1.3830 to the dollar on the market increased again discuss a possible resumption of its SNB interventions against the Swiss franc on the foreign exchange segment.

In such a situation, if in the coming weeks, enabling, for the moment, the American trend of macro-and microeconomic statistics, the improvement in the background in the financial markets, perhaps in contrast to the results of recent quarters, will not have significant support rate of the euro against the U.S. dollar.

From the standpoint of short-term period, the rate of EUR /USD for reconstruction in the bull trend, obviously, needs to be re-gaining a foothold on the points above 1.4000. Mid-term potential of the apparent decline of the currency pair that seems to remain relevant.

Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 16:30 Moscow time was 32.33 and 38.45 rubles. against, respectively, 31.89 and 37.52 rubles. on the bid yesterday morning.

The recent gradual appreciation of the ruble to bivalyutnoy basket Bank of Russia and the USD in the coming months, possibly as a result of continued, even in the face of improvement in the financial markets of Russia, as compared with the current period.

Increased government measures to stimulate the growth of credit in the domestic market of the Russian Federation in the current environment is likely to contribute to the development of this trend.

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Weak attempts to market in the morning to play in improving the end, in fact, a failure - too large a portion of the negative from abroad. The main pressure on the quotations of Russian securities in general and the share prices of oil and gas companies in particular, has the dynamics of oil prices, dropped below the mark of $ 60 /barrel. This level is stilldifficult to identify critical, but most of all concerned that the decline in the value of black gold may well continue - investors in this regard, it seems, are quite pessimistic. And the reasonable. As mentioned earlier, the consumption of petroleum products in the United States is not growing, despite the summer season, which indirectly confirms the difficult situation in the American economy. Against this background, severely affected the oil and gas company shares. However, even here to find an exception - Paper Rosneft rose against the market. A little more going for Industry - the rate of fall, there have not been as strong in events NLMK grew. The negative trend was observed in the paper gold-mining companies, which suffered the greatest loss of the action Polyus Gold at the declining value of gold. Also look worse than the market shares of the banking segment, especially the preferred shares of Sberbank.

The Russian market is very close to the level of support of 850 points on the RTS index. If the mark will be holes, it is most likely the continuation of short-term downward trend in the Russian stock market.

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As of 15:03 Moscow time the MICEX index falls 1.95% on the value of 878.78 rub.

biggest drop seen in the electricity sector (-3.14%), less oil and gas sector falls (-1.39%).

Index of large capitalization falls by 1.6%, the average market capitalization - on 2,8%, a small market capitalization - at 2.6%.

The Central Bank of Russia on Monday to reduce the refinancing rate at 0.5% to a level of 11% per annum.

The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia on behalf of the First Deputy Chairman of the Government of Russia Vladimir Zubkov will begin to carry out the intervention in the market of dry milk to prevent a fall in prices and thus to support domestic producers of agricultural products.

joint enterprise GM - AvtoVAZ, which produces cars ChevroletNiva, announced the planned shutdown of the main conveyor 13 and 26 July. The reason for the stop - the planned summer vacation.

OAO PolyusZoloto issued on behalf of its subsidiary companies Jenington International Inc. offer to acquire a 50.1% stake in KazakhGold. Under the offer, shareholders will receive 7.18 KazakhGold U.S. and 0.064% shares in OAO PolyusZoloto per share. Offer is valid until 30 July 2009.

The August crude oil futures traded on the NYMEX, falling to 1.28%, trading at 59.64 U.S. $ /barrel. September futures for the SP 500 index, traded on the CME, falling to 0.74% and traded at U.S. $ 872.5

By the end of today's trading session, likely continued decline MICEX Index, as well as factors that could support the quotes are not there, and a surge in demand for the currency, further exacerbating the situation was not simple.

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Lukoil

Norilsk Nickel

Rostelekom

Gazprom

Mosenergo

Surgutneftegas

Savings Bank

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In a case was projected balance gas for the current month. According to the document, the total consumption of gas industry in this period is expected to be 1.2 billion cubic meters. m. Of this number, Naftogaz directly supply companies only 651.7 million from this it follows that in July the share goskompanii will have only half the supply of gas, the need for major customers.

passing of Naftogaz paying customers pick a company owned by Russian billionaire and politicians. According to the ex-leader goskompanii Ukrtransnafta ( Daughter NACA) Alexander Todiychuka, if the proportion of Naftogaz to market gas to industrial enterprises in the I quarter of 2009 reached 75%, it is already in the second quarter of the early sharp decline.

Businesses advantageous to work with other dealers, but not with NAKom, because they can provide discounts, deferral of payments. gas companies are ready for a lot to potential customers in Classified NACA, - explained the expert.

majority of manufacturers of Naftogaz selected Daughter of Gazprom - Gazprom sales Ukraine (it works on the market under the intergovernmental agreement between Ukraine and Russia).

expected that in July the company put the industry 232.83 million cubic meters. meters of gas. In the second quarter of Gazprom sales to boost its customer base including the cessation of gas sales in the domestic market by УкрГаз-Energo (joint venture between Naftogaz and RosUkrEnergo) in April. Her former clients, such as Krymsoda and Crimea TITAN, chose to cooperate with the Russians.

serious player in the market sales prompredpriyatiyam became Ukrnafta. It is envisaged that this month it will supply 92.9 million cubic meters. m chemical companies - Dneprazotu and Cherkassy Azot. It's no wonder that Ukrnafta is trying to supply gas to the Dneprazot - the two companies affiliated with the same structure (a group of Inside. - Case ). It is likely that it operates its own system of offsets, - noted Head of the Chemical Industry Derzhzovnishinform Dmitry Gordeychuk. Cherkassy Azot, according to experts, is also working with Ukrnafta because of possible reductions in the 100-150 grn. per thousand cubic meters (now the price of gas for industrial enterprises is 2012 UAH. Click to continue »

The Russian stock market has shown in volatile trading Thursday under the influence of divergent factors. Start the session on a positive background of a recovery of global stock markets under the impression from the first quarterly reporting in the United States, but closer to evening the trend changed. As a result, the main Russian market indexes closed at negative territory, falling within 1%. While the MICEX index went below the 900 points, the sample is thus 100-day moving average. Slightly better looked Lukoil shares and RusGidro, closed in the green zone, and the paper NLMK seriously declining in the early weeks, cannon almost 2%. Quite seriously yesterday, shares of FGC UES proseli and Raspadskiy - and they and others have fallen by 6%. The technical picture in the papers is still moderately pessimistic - SFK yesterday went below minimums June and Raspadskaya Breaks upward trend. However, the situation could deteriorate in the near future. As the objectives of the movement of FGC UES and Raspadskiy, we see levels of 0,2 r.62 r.. respectively, which are already quite close, but in the case of Perforation of correction will continue until the levels of p 0.16. and 40 p.

U.S. stock market rose on Thursday as the risk of rejection after the evening waned on the reduction of appeals for unemployment benefits, although it did not have a particular impact on the completion of trades in Russia. The mood of investors also supported the growth of trade surplus accounts in Germany and the comments of German officials that the recession in the country, may be completed. DJIA eventually grew to a slight 0.06%, and other indicators added a little more seriously - S P500 and NASDAQ Comp. had grown up in the vicinity of 0.3%. The Mexican index gained 0.7%, the Brazilian market was closed yesterday.

Stock markets in Asia have demonstrated multidirectional motion on Friday: shares of mining and energy companies expensive, the cost of the developers and owners of securities declines. Some specific volatility is not visible, go to the minor indices of distance from the zero mark changes. Positive does not even added that the Central Bank of Korea today has improved the forecast for GDP for 2009-2010. Futures on the S P500 Index is now facing a small minus.

The Russian market is now starting a little higher than the yesterday's closing, but a special capacity for growth, we have not yet seen. The expectation that the MICEX index will find support in the region of 900 points and 100-day moving average, it seems, do not come to pass - the situation in world markets continues to deteriorate. In particular, turning a figure formed on the index NASDAQ Comp., DAX, close to the situation in the Hang Seng and the BOVESPA. In the latter case, the potential reduction could be as high as 12%, respectively, the Russian market may go down even more seriously. The most unpleasant - is that even for those indicators that seem to stand in support, there is no turning signals. A pair USD /JPY, most likely, will take to minimize the end of the past - the beginning of the year, and in general, the dollar last week looks outsider - all against the backdrop of events, it is not rising against the euro. However, falling commodities do not look at it - we are waiting for oil below $ 60 (possibly in the region of $ 55, perhaps slightly higher), and gold in the area of the April minimum - at around $ 880. The growth potential of the top of the MICEX index has restricted levels of 920-930 points, but it is best to be short-term movements. Below we will also mark 800 - we are now considering it as the most likely to reduce. In theory, can go and below (730-750), but still too early to talk about it.

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