It is like zashortit neftyanku

euphoria reporting season continues to positively impact on the Russian stock market, which in today's session demonstrates a positive rally. The opening occurred with gepom up, bringing the MICEX index Breaks upper limit of the downstream channel, formed in early June, rushed to the resistance in the region of 930 points.

published today macroeconomic statistics as a whole was better than forecasts. In particular, promproizvodstvo in the United States in June fell by 0.4%, with forecasts for 0.6% decline. However, this fact did not cause the continuation of growth, and nowindexes topchutsya on the ground, waiting for the key statistics of the day - on oil and oil products. It should be noted that the risk transfer position for tomorrow is great, so I recommend to record profits and leave the cache before tomorrow's opening.

session tomorrow again pleased we yield macroeconomic statistics, in particular, would be interesting data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, as well as the index of business activity in the United States. Waiting for results reporting, and JP Morgan Chase, Google and IBM also will increase the volatility within the day, so I recommend to use the speculative strategy. Start the session so far seems uncertain, since the movement in the States will be in the period after the closing of the trading in domestic markets. Recent data on manufacturing growth and consumer inflation threaten the growth rates in the near future. As we remember, a large-scale correction in the market as the time and was caused by rumors of a possible Federal Reserve rate increase, causing a rapid increase in the dollar and the correction in prices for raw materials.

growth during the trading session helped the situation on the commodity market where oil prices have once again returned to a level of $ 62 per barrel, which is reflected in the stock quotes of Russian oil and gas companies, which top the list of favorites. Before the start tomorrow's session will be published on promproizvodstvu in China, which also increase the volatility in commodity markets before the opening of the tenders. In the case of a sharp increase in promproizvodstva recommend closer to the shares of Russian metallurgists who enjoy good demand in London.

The demand for shares of the company observed in the western grounds: in London, ADRs for shares neftyanki grow strongly, in particular, ADRs for shares of Lukoil added 9.1%, to shares Rosneft - 8,85% . I think that pereprodannost the securities industry in recent weeks and the rebound in crude oil quotations contribute to the Western purchases. The volume on the MICEX, unfortunately, suggest speculative demand, so before leaving on oil and oil products to reduce the position to recommend that the Securities oil, since the probability of fixation of speculative profits.

The proximity of the majority of the shares to the powerful resistance also shows the probability of technical correction to bottom, so you can open the short and catch a couple of percent, and in case of negative data on it and move on tomorrow's session. Resistance to the shares of Gazprom is a 10-day moving in the vicinity of 143 rubles., For shares in Rosneft - 21-day moving in the vicinity of 168 rubles.

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At 16.00 Moscow time the price index value was 115.19 RGBI. Compared with the closing of the previous day, he rose to 0.06 Clause (0.052%). The volume of trades in the market for government securities amounted to 27.45 billion rubles. Yield on bonds RU000A0JQ623 with the date of repayment in December 2009 was 8.4% (0.25 percentage point), SU25063RMFS7 bonds with maturity date in November 2011 - 11.81% (00 percentage points) on the date of the bonds SU25064RMFS5 repayment in January 2012 - 11.9% (-0.01 percentage points) on the bonds SU25065RMFS2 from the date of redemption in March 2013 - 12.16% (0.06 percentage point), SU25066RMFS0 bonds with maturity date in July 2011 he . - 11.47% (-0.04 percentage points).

C corporate bonds reached 876 transactions in the amount of 5533.23 mln. Yield on bonds FSK UES-02 from the date of repayment in June 2010 was 12.68% (0.62 percentage points) on the bonds VTB-LizF03 with the date of repayment in June 2016 - 14.73% (-0.13 percentage points) , on bonds RZhD-10obl from the date of redemption in March 2014 - 15.38% (-0.11 percentage points) on the bonds RZhD-16 region with the date of repayment in June 2017 - 14.36% (-0.23 percentage points ) bonds MTS 04 with maturity date in May 2014 - 14.81% (-0.12 percentage points).

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In Bond Market You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trades on the MICEX and read the comments market bonds.

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Devalvatsionnye expectations promptly left

Passions in the foreign exchange market yesterday subsided: bivalyutnoy basket price fell to 38 rubles (minus 65 cents). Reason can be called a nominal rise of oil (1.5%). In fact, according to our feelings, just a critical mass of investors aware of the fact that oil prices near $ 60 a barrel provide a very comfortable balance of payments surplus of Russia, given that the bulk of the external debt of corporations and banks successfully refinansiruetsya. Strengthening of the ruble led to a sizeable reduction in imputed returns NDF.

Vympelcom placed

The situation in the debt market yesterday developed into a very positive way: the most liquid bond quotations of 1-st and 2 nd levels had grown up by around 10-20bp. At an auction on placement of release VimpelCom-3 yields to a two-year offer at 15.78%. Coupon rate, as we had expected to be less than the lower limit reference point (15.2% vs 15.5%). Perhaps due to this last quotation had grown up close to the release of MTS Duration-4 (YTP 14.97%, 30bp). Over time, we believe, spread between the releases of MTS and Vympelcom may disappear entirely. Also yesterday, were announced guidelines for the exchange rate of the coupon bond Dalsvyaz (1.5 billion rubles., Offer 2-year, 15.5-16.0%).

LSR-2

We want to draw attention to the Issue Group LSR-2, which was offered yesterday with a yield at 35.6%. In our view, it looks undervalued relative to little more than short-LSR-Invest-2, which yesterday was a relatively big We with the yield 33.6%. In contrast to LSR-Invest, 2 LSR-bond Group 2 included in the list of repo CB, that makes them otnositelnuyunedootsenennost. By the way, tomorrow will offer to issue LSR-Invest-1. Judging by the fact that the day before he was traded at a price higher than 99pp issuer cope with their commitments on time and in full. If successful, the offer account for the remaining two papers LSR surely increase, both by investors and by the borrower #9786;. Recall that only recently became aware of the attraction of building a group of LSR is very large and long credits from the state bank - VEBa and RSHB (collectively nearly 480 million, from 3 to 10 years).

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In Bond Market You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trades on the MICEX and read the comments on the market bonds.

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Campaigns

increase short positions in index ETF in the U.S. (SPY) and the indices of developed countries (Europe (VGK), Japan (EWJ)) in the case of SP 500 index increases up to 910-915 points from the short end, the 860 items on an index SP 500.

sell ETF for U.S. financial sector (XLF, KRE, KBE) in the case of growth of quotations XLF to the range of $ 12.60-12.70 $ 10.35-$ 10.50 with the immediate goal of $ 11.50 and the stop-loss on the mark in 13.20 for the XLF.

Keep short positions in the ETF for South Korea (EWY) with the immediate goal of $ 33.00.

Keep short positions in the ETF for emerging markets (EEM) and Brazil (EWZ) with the immediate goal of $ 29.80 and $ 48.00 respectively.

Keep long positions in ordinary shares of Gazprom (GAZP RX) with the immediate goal of 142.5 rubles.

Keep long positions in ordinary shares of Gazprom Neft (SIBN RX) with the immediate goal of 96.0 rubles.

Imprint profit on long positions in ordinary shares of Lukoil (LKOH RX) with an increase in quotations to 1415.0-1420.0 rub.

Imprint profit on long positions in ordinary shares of Rosneft (ROSN RX) with an increase in quotations to 166.0-167.0 rub.

Keep long positions in ordinary shares of VTB Bank (VTBR RX) with the immediate goal of 0,037 rubles.

yesterday to keep an open long positions in preferred shares of Transneft (TRNFP RX) with the immediate goal of 15 500 rubles.

Raw

increase short positions in the September futures on the RTS index (VEU9) in the case of growth of quotations of up to 870-880 points in the immediate goal of 735 points.

Sell August futures for oil varieties WTI (CLQ9), with an increase in quotations to $ 61.30-$ 61.50 with the immediate goal of $ 58.50 and the stop-loss at the point of $ 63.10.

Keep long positions in the August futures for natural gas (NGQ9) with the immediate goal of $ 3.60 and the stop-loss at the mark of $ 3.15.

Buy August futures for gold (GCQ9) in the case of reduction of quotations up to $ 880-885 with the immediate goal of $ 950 and stop-loss on the mark in the $ 855 per ounce.

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Russia

U.S. stock sites continue to recover during the second consecutive trading session on the background of the positive performance of retail sales exceeding predictive value, which gave rise to an increase in the price of shares in consumer market sectors, while positive in the energy sector has been directly linked to rising prices natural gas. Home Depot Inc., Intel Corp. and Walt Disney Co. increased by almost 2%, becoming one of the favorites in the dynamics of the index DJIA. El Paso Corp .- one of the largest United States companies owning a network of gas pipelines has strengthened its position in the market at 3.4% on the basis of bidding. Shares Goldman Sachs Group Inc .- published impressive quarterly reports, also graduated from trading in positive zone.

For the Russian stock market unquestionable support of the energy market and the western areas with a high probability will provide an opportunity for continued growth. MICEX Index is necessary to overcome the position 920p. over the next 1-2 trading sessions, after which the likelihood of continuing the upward momentum will grow markedly. The trend may continue up to 1013p. - The level of the previous consolidation. Taking into account the situation on the oil market, could in the short run to test resistance at 63.4 dollars per barrel Crude Light (position 50 week moving average), and then the position in the region of 65 dollars, the domestic market will be able to continue until the restoration of the levels: 1450r . - Lukoil, 143r. - Gazprom, 167r. - Rosneft, 92r. - Gazpromneft, r. 21.3. - AO Surgutneftegaz, 38.5 river. - Savings Bank Inc.

Europe

European stock markets closed on Tuesday due to rising shares of banks, as investors hoped that the results of Goldman Sachs, exceeded forecasts predict a strong reporting season in the financial sector. Pan-European index of blue chip to the end of trades rose by 1 percentage point to 838.61 after the jump of 2 per cent on Monday. The Bank had the greatest influence on the index. Quotations BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Societe Generale, UBS and UniCredit added 1,7-3,6 percent. The American investment bank Goldman Sachs reported an increase in quarterly profits by 33 percent. Pan-European index rose to 29.9 percent from the historic minimum of 9 March, but some analysts believe that the rally had gone too far in comparison to the real signs of recovery.

FT-SE 100	35.55	0.85%
DAX	59.35	1.26%
CAC40	29.79	0.98%

Asia

Asian markets continue recovery in today's auction followed the growth of MSCI Asia Pacific Index has reached the maximum of one week, after a forecast of sales Intel Corp. exceeded the previous forecast and Air China Ltd. expects a higher level of income. Samsung Electronics Co. grew by 5.1% on the bid in Seoul on the optimism of a possible recovery in demand for personal computers, while the quotes Intel Corp. increased by 7.1%. China Cosco-leading ocean carrier dry increased its market capitalization at 5.8%.

NIKKEI 225	7.44	0.08%
HANG SENG INDEX	308.57	1.73%
SHANGHAI SE A SHARE INDX	45.59	1.38%
SHANGHAI SE B SHARE INDX	2.18	1.08%
KOSPI INDEX	35.30	2.55%

United States

The American stock market on Tuesday closed the rise since surpassed forecasts of quarterly results of major companies were able to complement the impression produced by the data on retail sales in the United States. Profits of world'slargest producer of Intel chips for the second quarter of this year has surpassed forecasts of analysts. Besides the market and the company's forecast for the third and fourth quarters. Shares in Intel rose 7.4 percent. Profits of world's largest producer of Intel chips for the second quarter of this year has surpassed forecasts of analysts.

DJIA	27.81	0.33%
SP 500	4.79	0.53%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX	6.52	0.36%
NASDAQ 100	5.14	0.36%

Closing bid for ADR GDR in the western areas was positive.

Gazprom	0,37%
Rosneft	1,26%
Surgutneftegas	1,12%
MMC Norilsk Nickel	0,15%
Rostelekom	-0,83%
Gazpromneft	0,54%

Prices are per 1 share

* closing price of a receipt for the United States and European markets to the closing price of shares on the MICEX.

major macroeconomic statistical data suggest that attention to

the consumer price index in June in the United States, industrial production during the same period, as well as oil and petroleum products last week. The data will be published in 16-30, 17-15 and 18-30 on Moscow time.

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During the day, July 14, the market witnessed high volatility, after the jump in prices in the first half of the trading in the second period has been declining. As a result, indices finished the session with a gain 1.2% on the MICEX and 3.7% in the RTS. Themain reason for the increase in the speculative game began rising oil prices, stock indexes in Europe and the U.S. futures on indices, as well as a record profit of Goldman Sachs in the II quarter of 2009 (33%). As leaders of growth - stocks of oil, finished the day rising to 2-3%. Shares Sberbank, showed strong growth in the early days, by the end lost all of its position. Trading volume remained low and talk about the formation of medium-term trend is still too early.

Trades in Europe and the United States culminated in the growth indices within 1%. In addition to super-upbeat news from Goldman Sachs, came macrodata contradictory. Retail sales in the United States in June grew by 0.6%, ahead of analysts' expectations. The index of producer prices in June rose by 1.8% and was most significant in November 2007 This is worse than the expectations of experts. At today's auction of Asian indices rise, but slower than the previous day. 9:00 to Nikkei Index rose 0.5%. Oil futures traded in positive zone (1%).

The expected news consumer prices in the United States and the euro in June, industrial production in the United States in June, as well as weekly statistics on oil and petroleum products in the United States.

The most likely development of the situation yesterday on a scenario, determine the levels of the closing news from the United States.

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