Market Overview oil 22.07.09

Dynamics

Trades in the oil market on Wednesday, July 22, raznonapravleno were influenced by positive expectations of economic growth, on the one hand, and the Ministry of Energy report, on the other side.

At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH cost of the August futures for U.S. light crude oil fell by 0.21 dollars and its price, therefore, amounted to 65.40 dollar per barrel.

At the ISE Stock Exchange in London, the cost of oil brand Brent rose 0.34 to 67.21 dollars per barrel.

Causes

At the auction on Wednesday 22 July, oil fell in price quotes for the first time in the last 6 trading sessions due to the total increase in reserves of oil, gasoline and distillates in the United States for the past week to a maximum from September 1990 levels. Thus, the Ministry of Energy report showed that oil stocks fell by 1.796 million barrels, gasoline stocks increased by 0.813 million barrels, stocks distsillyatorov increased by 1.22 million barrels a day. Refinery load factor fell by 2.1%. Imports amounted to nearly 9.2 million barrels a day, or 346 thousand barrels less than the previous week.

news worth noting that BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, and for Australia - a leading producer of oil, reported on activities in the IV quarter of last fiscal year. BHP has set an absolute record for oil production, which grew for the quarter by 4%. The company attributed its successes the development of new oil and gas fields.

What to expect?

According to the Kuwaiti Minister of Oil Price in U.S. $ 65.00 is a fair price of a barrel of oil. This in fact is currently showing quotation oil, arguing that the level of 65.00 dollars is quite strong. On the side of the bulls also serves the U.S. dollar, which fell on their rivals.

What is fear?

mood of the players on the market of black gold is beginning to gradually deteriorate. The reasons for this, as they say, enough: the data API, asked a negative tone before the publication of EIA, the report itself EIA, the technical picture is telling us - correction imminent, reducing oil imports to China in June to 2.8% to 16.6 million tons with 17.01 million tonnes in May. One conclusion - a correction in the oil market.

Review precious metals market for 22.07.09

Dynamics

On Wednesday 22 July, at the tender quotes for precious metals has added to the price of a strengthening stock indexes and the widespread reduction in the dollar.

As a result of trades on the COMEX, division New York commodity exchange (NYMEX), gold stood at around 953.30 dollars per troy ounce, while silver closed at around 13.70 dollars per ounce.

Causes

On Wednesday 22 July at the auction, market participants focused their attention on the positive dynamics in the stock markets, which is supported by optimistic quarterly reports of major companies. In addition, its role in supporting the gold and silver played a two-day heads of the Fed statement by Ben Bernanke to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. The weakening dollar is another reason for the growth of quotations of precious metals.

From the news it may be noted that the Lihir Gold has spent a large sum in an attempt to establish production at the historic Ballarat gold mine in the Australian state of Victoria, but is now going to transfer him to the maintenance of efficiency and exposes for sale. According to the Executive Director Arthur Hudah, mine is still of great interest for gold in small amounts, but the strategy is to work in mines with high production volumes and Ballarat does not match these criteria.

What to expect?

From the technical point of view of fixing the price of gold above the strong level of 900.00 dollars per troy ounce, and stabilization in the region of 950.00 gives the chance of bulls on the development of further upward movement. It also goes a lot of rumors of purchases occurring in anticipation that prices will rise later this year due to fears about inflation.

What is fear?

However, the realities of metal feels less and less support from the representatives of jewelry industry, and becoming more dependent on changes in investor mood. A possible decline in oil prices and a general slowdown in commodity markets is not spoke in favor of gold, which also indicates the dynamics of reserves mutual funds that invest in precious metals.

non-ferrous metals market review for 22.07.09

Dynamics

On Wednesday 22 July, at the tender quotes for non-ferrous metals added in moderate price quotes on a background of growth in precious metals and the devaluation of American currency.

At the London Metal Exchange LME aluminum closed at a price of 1706 dollars per ton.

Copper at the close of the Exchange cost 5370 dollars per ton.

Nickel bids amounted to a cost 15850 dollars per ton.

Causes

Trading on Wednesday 22 July, set the tone statistics from China. According to the June China imported 378 943 tons of refined copper, which is 12% more than in May. This is also the fifth consecutive month, when imports reached a record value. The volume of imports of nickel to China in June reached a record 41 008 tonnes, five times more than in June last year.

news worth noting that the abundance of nickel in the world market in January-May this year amounted to 86.1 thousand tons. Such data in a report published World Bureau of Metal Statistics. At the same time, demand for nickel in annualized declined to 471.5 thousand tons. Also in these organizations indicated that the production of refined nickel in the reporting period decreased by 2.6% to 557.6 thousand tons, while mine production of metal fell to 4.8% to 584.2 thousand tons. In May of this year nikeleplavilnye it produced 115.1 thousand tons of metal, while consumption reached 99.6 thousand tons.

What to expect?

devaluation of American currency, the revaluation of the rate of recovery of world economy from a recession to be the most positive effect on metals quotations. Growth in equity markets, supported by quarterly reports of companies, is also a positive signal to the market of non-ferrous metals.

What is fear?

Imports of metals in China in June reached a record value. But analysts caution that the July figures are markedly reduced, as in China is the traditional season of low consumption of copper. Besides maintaining a record volume of imports may not be possible due to the filling of the strategic storage.

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Yesterday, the Dow and the SP once again tried to choose the direction of motion, but no fight with the bulls with Bear did not work. As a result, trading session having candles with small bodies, which usually reflects the doubts in the market. These doubts, and entered the Russian market, which resulted in our indices have fallen slightly.

Yesterday, futures on the RTS index, following the western indicators Breaks ascending channel. During the day, managed to form a downstream channel width. In such a channel is difficult to sell: the decision must be taken quickly, there is no doubt at the time delay of signals from the indicators is becoming the principal. Only address the ROC (5) promptly send a signal to sell, others are clearly lagging indicators. Easier and reliable in this situation, to plan an operation when the price is one of the boundaries of the channel.

Today's session began rising, the channel obviously samples. But to join the movement upwards is dangerous. It remains in the transactions should be paying attention to traffic futures on S P. Rather, it is better to wait for a turn-down tool, and open a short position.

Then it will be possible to rely on the testimony of indicators. Role trendline can play EMA (10).

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Sylvinite won the tender for the supply of products in India - 850 thousand tons of potash fertilizers at a cost of $ 460 per t. The price is the second historical record of the cost of potassium chloride in the Indian market and only 25% below last year's pre-crisis levels.

Net profit of Sberbank of Russia for the first half of 2009. (RAS) was 5.3 billion rubles (down to 12.5 times). Net profits earned in the 2 quarter of 2009 increased compared with the results of the first quarter from 0.3 to 5 billion rubles. Operating expenses for the bank declined 5.4% to 96.3 billion rubles (101.7 billion rubles in the first half of 2008).

Cost Savings Bank of the establishment of reserves in the first half amounted to 181.2 billion rubles, of which 169.5 billion was accounted for by the reserves on loans. Reserves established by the proceeds from operating activities and does not reduce the capital of the bank.

Bank Overdue debt on the basis of six months of this year rose to 2.8%. In doing so, as of June 1st, 2009 arrears stood at 2.6%. The balance of the bank for the first half of this year decreased by 2.1% to 6 579 billion. Rubles, mainly due to the outflow of funds from corporate clients, and reducing the volume of resources attracted from the Bank of Russia.

For the six months of 2009 were granted loans amounting to more than 1 850 billion. As a result, the size of the loan portfolio of legal persons increased by 6.6% to 4 246 billion. The low demand for loans from the population continues to influence the reduction in the retail loan portfolio, which declined over 1 half of 2009 to 6.6% to 1 174 billion. The rate reduction in the 2 quarter of the portfolio has slowed down and was 2.9%, against 3.8% in quarter 1. In June 2009, the portfolio declined by 0.5%.

portfolio of securities the bank increased by 12.4% to 551 billion rubles., mainly due to the acquisition of corporate bonds, which is a form of financing of Russian enterprises. The volume of investment bank in corporate bonds has increased since the beginning of the year to 59.1 billion rubles. (or 70%), including 2 months - to 34.5 billion rubles. The share of corporate bonds in the portfolio of securities since the beginning of the year rose from 17% to 26%, while the share of government securities and sub-federal bonds fell from 80% to 69%.

Levels of resistance and support for today 23 July.

Term contract for the RTS index of execution in September:

implemented the beginning of the consolidation option. Alignment analysts and players on the correction led to a quotation dropped yesterday to 93 800. Ie quite confidently dropped in the range of support to 94 000 - 95 000. The fact that the American market does not want to fall so far, and relatively stable oil quotes are likely to deter contract quotes on RTS index of decisive breakthrough range of support and withdrawal of it in the near future. However, looking at the schedule that can not be deleted. Once the quotes candle-hour closed below 94 000 the failure of up to 90 500 - 92 500 will be no escape, and well, if this movement restricted.

alternatives are few.

I think immediately of the growth is almost impossible to move. This will require the closure of bidding above 100 000. However, and this will not mean the eventual return to trend.

Ie in the best quotes will be consolidating to represent between 94 000 - 100 000.

The level of support for today - 97 000 (94 800).

Level Resistance - 100 000 (101 000).

RTS

- support 964, 930;

- resistance 983, 992.

GAZPROM

- Support 152.6r.;

- 161.7r resistance.; 165.9r.

GMKNN:

- Support 2930r.; 2870r.;

- resistance 3080r. 3150r.

Company:

- Support 1469r.; 1440r.;

- resistance 1483r.; 1498r.

Rostelekom:

- Support 156r.; 149r.

- resistance 160r.; 163r.

Rosneft:

- Support 173r.; 170r.;

- resistance 178r.; 181r.

Sberbank on.

- support 38.39r.; 37.20r.;

- 41.00r resistance.; 44.00r.

Sberbank etc.:

- support 24.60r.; 23.00r.;

- 26.70r resistance.; 27.80r.

Surgutneftegas:

- support 21.80r.; 20.70r.

- 22.80r resistance.; 23.70r.

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Positive opening against the backdrop of rising oil

The opening of the Russian market on Wednesday was held in an attempt to keep the level of 1000 points, but the wave of sales that took place on the market after the first half of trades, increasing the market lower. Attempting to bulls to restore the quotes end with an exit report Morgan Stanley (of -1.37 dollars per share, expected dollar -0.49 per share), which has negative equity at the site, resulting in continued decline. Worse than the market finished the day Uralsvyazinform and Tatneft, the losses which amounted to 6.3% and 4.2% respectively. The company they were Norilsk Nickel (-3.6%) and Sberbank (-4.1%). Better market were Sevrstal (4%) and preference shares of Rostelecom (3.63%). At the end of the trading the MICEX index lost 2.2%, down to the level of 981.

U.S. markets held Wednesday in the lateral movement of previous day's closing level. All attempts to bring the market into positive territory failed. At the end of the trading Dow Jones Indexes and the S P500 declined by 0.39% and 0.05% respectively, the NASDAQ index gained 0.53%. At the morning session, futures on S P500 demonstrated positive momentum and has reached a level of 9.50 to 955 points.

energy market after the closure demonstrates recovery. Already at the morning session, the futures contract for Brent crude oil brand to overcome the level of 67 dollars per barrel. As a result, the 9.50 level it traded at 67.5 U.S. dollars.

Today the Russian market, we expect a positive opening and the bulls once again attempt to extract the market above the level of 1000 points. The occasion will be the growth of oil quotations that make the growth leaders in the oil sector. In doing so against a background of negative dynamics of the banking sector in the United States, the market may be worse than Sberbank and VTB. Affect the dynamics of trades today may come as continued reports of U.S. companies, as well as data from the labor market, which will be today at 16.30

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