MICEX index: The nearest resistance at 1020 points

MICEX index continues to rise, which was initiated from the local minima at 852 points. Having overcome the level of 935 and a 200-hour exponential moving average, the index continued its upward momentum. Corrective movement downwards, which started from the level of 1020, was stopped a short-term top-down trend, which lend support to the index, enabled him to resume the upward movement, resulting in a level of 1020 samples. In case of continued growth, resistance index levels of 1090 will and 1160. The support he can expect from the short-term ascending trendline, 200 hours of EMA and the level of 1020. In the previous survey, we advised the players to increase the position in case of breakdown of 1020 with the transfer of foot under the level of 1000 points on the MICEX index. In the current situation, we recommend that players continue to increase the position and stand at 970 feet.

unsecured gepy: 788.

Levels of support: 1020, 935, 870, 790, 705, 640.

Resistance Levels: 1090, 1160, 1260, 1350;

Recommendation: make the stop at 970.

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It remains to be determined by the progress of bidding, as in the previous week, abundantly available macroeconomic statistics (sales of new homes in the United States, GDP U.S. housing prices, statistics on durable goods, which in the case of positive data only reinforce the rally at all sites) and corporate reporting season out of the ocean, which are partially positive, partially neutral, but most reports a failure, as in the past quarter, have not yet been observed, which continues to reassure the market. Dramatically increased activity on the Russian oil ADRy securities in Europe. Perhaps, once again increased the demand for Russian paper by non-residents who have actively started to buy domestic securities neftyanki against the background of podrosshey oil that will provide them with high growth potential in the week. In metallurgical papers of growth is also highly probable, since it is actively contributing to the rally in commodity markets and rising prices of industrial metals on the background of the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Given that the shares of metallurgists and so well had grown up as a result of last week, speculation profitable open positions on the purchase.

In the U.S. market trading closed with divergent changes in the leading indices. Strongly added shares of oil companies against the backdrop of rising oil prices. Good branch of paper the world's largest oil company ExxonMobil and its smaller rival ConocoPhillips rose by 1% and 0.96% respectively. Also good impact on the market and the statement by the head of the Fed Ben Bernanke that many U.S. banks reduced the volume of emergency measures to rescue the country's economy, as the worst situation has passed. With regard to corporate news, the paper of the world's largest software manufacturer Microsoft, on the basis of bidding proseli at 8.3% against the background of the publication слабоватого optimistic financial reports. According to the report Microsoft's net profit fell by 18% to a level of $ 14.6 billion compared with $ 17.7 billion last year. Microsoft's revenues for the year fell by 3% to a level of $ 58.44 billion compared with revenue for the previous fiscal year to $ 60.4 billion at 8% on the basis of bidding proseli securities owner of one of the world's largest online stores Amazon . com after its financial report that the company's net profit for the II quarter of 2009-year has fallen by 10% to a level of $ 142 million compared with $ 158 million received last year. With regard to macroeconomic news, on Friday left the index of consumer confidence in the U.S. for July, which fell by 4.8 point and totaled 66 points in the expectations index to 65 points.

the oil futures markets brands Light Sweet and Brent traded in negative zone, which was due, above all, technical sales background in the fact that oil prices in the stock market has risen the day before and on the basis of the trading day on Thursday established a maximum for three weeks, the level that formed the profits from the holders of long positions and a desire to fix it on Friday. Shopping in the morning were mostly associated with positive prospects of demand for diesel fuel, which reflects the industrial activity and consumer spending is much higher than other fuels. According to many market participants, the increase in fuel consumption should be the time to apply for the winter period when demand for heating fuel in the United States is the maximum. The risk of growth of fuel consumption is that the economic recovery can begin much later than expected. In the United States stocks of petroleum products, which include heating fuel and diesel fuel, are at the maximum level of 1985-year. Already in the world chartered dozens of tankers to store excess fuel on them, and if demand is low in winter, it will force oil companies to sharply reduce oil refining, which will increase the reserves of crude oil. The International Energy Agency predicts decline in global demand for oil in 2009-th year, but by the end of the year all the same expected improvement in oil consumption.

Today the Russian market after a positive opening, we expect to overcome the level of 1050 points on the MICEX, which is the local level to take it, then drop in the price of oil over $ 71 will be difficult. Much will show statistics on the primary real estate market, because if it confirms the feeling of stabilizing the U.S. economy, ie, hope for growth in the next few days.

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Last week the Cabinet confirmed its case against the threat of problem banks. Officials albeit informally, but refused to nationalization of one of the largest in the country finuchrezhdeny - Ukrprombank, which has not been able to negotiate with creditors to restructure all its borrowings, as required by CMU.

financiers are confident that a similar fate awaits the remaining problem banks if they are unable to find a common language with creditors or not otyschut new investors, and predicted a sequence of eliminations for the August-October. According to different estimates, under the knife can go three or four finuchrezhdeniya.

Pogorelov on credit

question on the Elimination of Ukrprombank rose 21 July: on this day expiration of the moratorium on the satisfaction of its creditors (including depositors), which was announced NBU January 21, 2009 According to the law at the end of this period was obliged finuchrezhdenie initiate the payment of deposits, but this did not happen.

The Bank has not yet begun issuing deposits in full, because its financial condition does not permit to do so. At the last time he made a partial payment: completely gave interest ondeposits, provided a refund of deposits to force majeure and clients older than 75 years. The total amount of payments to individuals for the six months of the interim administration was 1.2 billion UAH. , - the temporary administrator Ukrprombank Constantine Raevsky. According to him, to date, total funds in the accounts of individuals in finuchrezhdenii is 6876 million UAH. Legal - 0.872 billion

Despite the fact that prior to July 21 of the Cabinet and has not been filed in response to the recapitalization of the documents last week in Ukrprombank still hoped for the nationalization and the allocation of government 5.5 billion UAH. as planned in early 2009 The best solution would be a recapitalization. Indeed, in this case, no investor will not be affected and will be respected the interests of other bank clients - legal entities and their creditors, - said Mr. Raevsky. However, according to the DC source at the Ministry of Finance, the Cabinet does not intend to nationalize Ukrprombank and is going to initiate their elimination.

Introduction to recapitalize the bank received from the NBU, we'll see. But history is more complicated than the capitalization of such finuchrezhdeny as Rodovid-bank, and bank Ukrgasbank Kiev , which we carried out. After all, the position of the Ministry of Finance remains the same: has yet to be addressed and clearly understood the possibility of settlement payments to the debt of these financial institutions, especially foreign debt, the final decision on the recapitalization does not take - formally confirmed this information. about. Minister of Finance Igor Umansky.

As reported in Ukrprombank, until now there have not been able to agree on a restructuring of 100% of its foreign borrowing, as required by the Government.

investors have to wait three to six months

interviewed financiers are confident that after an official denial Cabinet Mount nationalize bank NBU just will not leave the choice and he will have to put Ukrprombank to eliminate. Indeed, after the moratorium was lifted on issuance of deposits, the courts have begun to take claims of victims of clients. We can expect that a group of investors and develop a consolidated position in the court will seek recognition Ukrprombank bankrupt, - said Dragon Capital Investment analyst Vitaly Vavrischuk.

In this case, the Court explicitly decides to recover the money from the bank, - has added its financial analyst Astrum Investment Management Jaroslav Stetsik. According to current projections, this type of judicial verdict can appear quite quickly - within a month. And if NBU will not Ukrprombank to eliminate the past, it will do so after the court decisions, though not immediately.

According to Article 88 of the Law On banks and banking activity , if a financial institution, the debtor is unable to fulfill its obligations in accordance with the decision of the court of enforcement for six months and during this time is not reached agreement on the restructuring of the recognized debt National Bank of Ukraine is obliged to revoke the license and initiate the procedure for its elimination, - explained the managing partner of law firm Mozhaev & Partners Michael Mozhaev.

allow elimination Ukrprombank and at the NBU. I do not think that we will delay the case Ukrprombank even if signed by the President of the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on July 24, rescuing the banks, which allows the temporary administrator for another six months to renew the deposit freeze. Click to continue »