Domestic

Factors support the bond market is still strong, despite a small correction in prices for black gold and the ruble. At the same time, we have not seen strong growth across the entire spectrum of debt securities. On the contrary, for many, the most perekuplennym, securities investors prefer to fix their positions. On Tuesday, while still good liquidity pressure on the currency and debt markets has been paying income tax. It is active today and the primary market - the company MTS has deployed its 5 th issue of 15 billion rubles. for a period of 7 years by 14.25% per annum, and Enele OGK-5 has successfully conducted a 2 auction at 2 issues stock to 2 billion of bonds. rubles. with a very low coupon rate - 12.2% per annum.

At mid-day trading on Tuesday the most liquid bonds are blue chips and the recently published editions. Most turnover grew RZhD-9 (1.03% of the closing price on Monday), CFR-11 (0.97%), Moskva59 (0,11%), TatfondBank-4 (0.07%), TMK-3 (0.05%), GazpromA4 (0,05%), CFR-14 (0.05%). Decreased quotes the following Paper - VTB-6 (-0.06%), Moskva54 (-0.11%), YUFK-1 (-0.48%), VC-Invest-1 (-0.63%), PenzaObl2 (-2.15%), AHML-6 (-2.25%).

Liquidity is still at a good level, despite a decline. The amount of funds on deposits and correspondent on the morning of Tuesday, fell by 70.3 billion rubles. and amounted to 708.1 billion rubles. At the end of the second half of the trading day on Tuesday the dollar rose 0.87% to 30.999 rubles., Euro at 0.83% to 44.068 rubles. Course bivalyutnoy basket of the ruble grew by 0.96%, and amounted to EUR 36.902.

Market US Treasuries and eurobond

Supporting data for the sale of homes, which unexpectedly showed a strong growth of 11% for the month of June this year, and has released on Tuesday the index SP /CaseShiller, reduction of which has proved weaker than forecasts - at 17.06% against 17,9% . A little later, the market expects in July on Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufact Index. Following the decline in European stock pads, and in anticipation of the opening of the market in the United States, we see moderate demand curve US Treasuries, which is slightly shifted downwards - UST-2 - 1.043% per annum (0b.p.), UST-10 - 3.703% per annum, 2b.p.), UST-30 - 4.601% per annum (-3b.p.).

In the segment of Russian Eurobonds in the expensive oil demand remains - Rus-30 decreased by 0.21% to 100.37% of face value, return the release of 7.432% per annum (1.6 bp). Spread between the Rus-30 - UST-10 increased by 4 bp to 373 bp

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In Bond Market You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of bidding MICEX and read the comments on the bond market.

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good start - a weak finale

The Russian stock market on Tuesday opened the multidirectional movement of indexes: RTS for the first few minutes prosel the level of closure at the 2 points, MICEX, on the contrary, a few paragraphs added. However, in the first half-hour auction, the key Russian court agreed, and the indices went up simultaneously. By the middle of the day saw the greatest demand in the securities of companies of metallurgical and petrochemical sectors: the action Mechel added more than 4%, Nornikelya - almost 3%, NLMK - 1,9%, blue chips of oil companies - more than 2% of Tatneft and about 2% of Gazprom oil. Increased interest has been to the Securities TNK-BP: 5,5% at mid-day. Despite the fact that, by now reporting (IFRS for the first half) net profit for the first 6 months was reduced by half to $ 2 billion, a figure that, judging by the reaction of the players was higher than expected, causing the growth of securities companies. Reported today, and Deutsche Bank: net profit of the largest German bank was higher than forecasts that at the time supported the securities of banks: Sberbank's shares rose by 6%, VTB - almost 2%.

But the rally at the Russian site has failed, and the growth followed the fall. The main reason for the departure of indexes in the red zone was the correction in oil prices: many players have decided to record profits. What is largely true: the fundamental reasons for the growth of black gold has not yet been reviewed.

In the red on Tuesday were a result of the European sites: the key indices lost from 0.25 to 0.55%.

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The index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Ksetra Daks (Xetra DAX) has fallen on 16.04 item (-0.31%), and is at the level of 5235.51. The index of London Stock Exchange Futsi 100 (FTSE 100) fell by 25.10 points (-0.55%), and is at the level of 4561.03. The index of the Paris Stock Exchange BuyThisBook 40 (CAC 40) dropped 8.51 points (-0.25%), and is at the level of 3363.85. September futures on the index S & P 500 (SP 500) at Globekse (Globex) dropped 4.7 point at 975.2. Opening of the American stock index today is expected to bottom.

rate euro /yen fell in European session, with a mark of 135.96 to 134.32. Rate euro /dollar adjusted level of 1.4300 to 1.4220. The weakening of the euro contributed to a decline in the quotations for the European stock exchanges.Closing a position on the risky instruments has contributed to the decline in world oil prices. The price of oil in New York fell below the 68.00 dollars per barrel.

The index of consumer confidence (Consumer confidence) in Italy for the month of July amounted to 107.5 (forecast was 105.8, the previous value of 105.4).

According to the review of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), the balance of the volume of retail sales (Retail sales volume balance) for the month of July in the UK amounted to -15% (previous value of -17%).

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After opening with gepom up short-term market was the observed lateral dynamics of the partial fixation of profit. RTS Index closed the trading session on the growth of 2,5%, while futures on him gaining 1.8%, again down in bekvordatsiyu (-6 points). On fixing the profit in the contract on the RTS also shows a reduction in the number of open positions at 2%.

It should be noted that, despite the rapid growth of quotations of oil futures traded Gazprom, and Lukoil weaker market. The contracts for the gas giant's shares added 0.2%, and even Lukoil futures lost 0.6%. In doing so, the bidders rather actively built up positions in these instruments. The growth of interest amounted to 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively. In general, the short-term market activity of participants dropped by one third compared with the Friday level: from 63 to 44 billion rubles.

Volatility trades continued to decline in both domestic and world markets. Index VIX - at the point of paragraph 24.3, the index volatility OVI, calculated FK Opening, fell 57.0 to 56.7 points.

The market option bidders cut positions in call options on the level of 1000 points on the RTS. A similar situation was observed in the call to Gazprom: the players cut positions at the level of 160 rubles. In the options Lukoil and Sberbank observed mirrored the situation: the participants built up positions in put options on the levels of 1 600 rbl. for Lukoil and the levels of 39-40 rubles. for the Savings Bank.

during evening trading session on the matter of the market continued a wave of a fixed income. Futures on the RTS has lost 0.5% despite the moderate increase in American courts, adding 0,2-0,3%.

on Tuesday published a large set of macroeconomic statistics. So, at 17:00 Moscow time goes on in real estate prices in the United States (Case-Schiller index). At 18:00 published data on consumer confidence in the United States. The consensus forecast stands at 50 points.

We expect that the opening of tender short-term market closures will occur at the levels of the night session.

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On Monday, the Russian stock market saw growth, against the backdrop of oil went up, and macroeconomic statistics were better expectations: RTS (2,47%), MICEX (0,91%).

Trading in shares of oil companies shut down raznonapravleno due to correction of oil price: Gazprom (0,3%), Rosneft (-0,1%), Lukoil (-1.4%). Paper financial sector look better than the market: Sberbank (2.5%), VTB (2.1%). Demand for the shares of steel companies are unevenly distributed: CMI (-1.5%), NLMK (0.8%), Severstal (2.1%).

On Monday, U.S. stock indexes finished trading low growth, particularly in the Dow Jones index added 0.1%. Market supported by statistical data on sales of new buildings in the United States, which instead of the expected 3% increase to 11%. In Asian markets today, there has been a mixed trend, high-demand shares of banks and steel companies against the background of expectations of positive financial results in these sectors. After significant growth in oil prices slightly adjusted. Barrel of oil brand Brent worth $ 70.8.

According to our estimates, this morning's neutral background for the Russian stock market. As a result of lower oil prices slightly worse than the market could look like the paper oil and gas sector. The growth of the capitalization of Asian steel companies able to support the actions of domestic metallurgy. From the statistics today, we recommend that you draw attention to the index of consumer confidence in the United States, which will be published in 18.00.

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Small producers of dairy products will soon leave the market, while the remaining will have to unite to confront. As the companies are trying to delay the debt payments and looking for portfolio investors.

This year the market for whole milk products (CIP) was a turning point, as well as trends that are seen in the past few years, dramatically changing. Thus, if in 2008 the volume of market sales of whole milk products in-kind valued at 1.3 million tons, a 7% decrease compared to 2007, then measuring the amount of the cash market rose to $ 1.5 million, or 12%.

growth in monetary terms occurred because of higher prices for raw materials, and as a consequence - on their products. Also of note is the growth of sales vysokomarzhinalnyh products (yogurt, tvorozhkov, desserts, etc.), which led to an increase of the market and replace them less margin for milk and traditional ryazhenki and kefir.

This year, the situation is changing, and, according to experts, will be a reverse trend: the consumption of whole milk products will decrease in proportion to income. This is directly related to the lack of trends in wage increases, rising utility costs, and reduction of the cost of rising medical supplies hryvna. According to preliminary estimates, the market CIP in cash and kind has already lost about 15-20% in the first half, but before the end of the year this figure may increase to 25-30%.

This is evidenced by both the general market indicators, and marketing decisions of producers. As of the first half of 2009, there has been shift in consumer preference to more expensive products cheaper in the CIP group. The price for cheaper products has remained unchanged, as dependent on the purchase price of milk. Despite the fact that the value vysokomarzhinalnyh products decreased by 10-20%, many manufacturers have begun to conduct campaigns for the increase in holiday volume packaging product for the same price (eg 350 ml at a price of 300 ml).

Products industry CIP is intended for consumption within the country and focuses on the prices of similar imported products (higher prices for products of domestic manufacturers will lead to an increase in consumption of cheaper imported).

who divides the market?

concentration of the giants in the dairy industry is quite high (more than 50%). The largest of nine companies producing industries by 53% of the market. The biggest of them - Unimilk, 8.7% (TM Prostokvashino, Bio Balance, Subject, Summer Day, PETMOL) subsidiary Andrew Bloch and Andre Beskhmelnitskii; Milkilend - 7, 4% (TM Dobryana, Kolyada, Romenskaya ) under the control of the Anatolia Yurkevich Wimm-Bill-Dann Ukraine - 5,9% (TM Miracle, Merry milkman , Neo cheese Red Up yogurt Frugurt, Slovyanochka, Romola) controlled by Russian businessman Sergei Plastinin.

In doing so, the debt burden of most of the industry is not critical. In general, manufacturers are using leverage to equity 1,5-2. Banks to provide loans to hunt this type of enterprises, as the most stable in terms of their profit. Some of the most advanced milkman, for various reasons (for someone else the first step towards publicity for someone to increase the credit leverage) went to the attraction of bonds. Click to continue »