July 29th, 2009

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Perhaps after a certain pause, world stock markets in the coming weeks will continue to increase

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

RTS Index on the basis of today's auctions has lost another 2.80% to end up 973.78 points. Indicator RTS-2 in the closure of the session decreased markedly lower - at 0.7%, up to 877.62 Friday.

The main reason for the negative dynamics of the most liquid Russian shares on Wednesday - this, obviously, the price of light oil, falling under the influence of hard statements of American regulators for two days at 7%. Against this background, the Russian stock market look today in the international financial sector is relatively weak.

On the other hand, once again the role of defense of the equity securities of domestic segment successfully executed the action a second tier, presented at the Russian Trading System stock exchange industry, consumer goods and retail.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock indexes dropped by the opening of the session under the influence of a larger than expected by investors, reducing the index of goods in the durable goods orders, by the end of the first hour of the trading began quite actively restore their positions.

It is important to note that without the traditionally relatively unstable data trends in demand for transportation equipment specified indicator showed markedly higher than the average forecast by analysts value. In addition, orders for capital equipment, excluding defense goods and aircraft industry showed in June TG second consecutive increase, which usually means an overall increase of investment in the U.S. economy in the period.

Trend of U.S. macroeconomic statistics, received in recent weeks against the backdrop of the continued support of the global financial sector from the regulatory structures are still, in general, are favorable for the bulls in nature. Perhaps after a certain, in many ways - technical breaks, the world's stock markets, including - to the Russian segment, in the coming weeks will continue to increase.

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Futures on the RTS index fell for the day at 4.49% to a value of 94 550 items

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

The volume of trades on FORTS substantive session today was $ 2 242 045 761. The volume of open positions in Futures dropped to 3 060 902 contracts for options open interest amounted to 2 588 328 contracts. Futures on the RTS index fell for the day at 4.49% to a value of 94 550 points. The number of open positions in futures on the index was 360 762 contracts. The contract for the RTS Index - Telecom fell by 10.81%, down to a value of 105.25.

leaders today began lowering contracts on shares of Russian banking sector. A contract for preferred shares of OAO Sberbank of Russia decreased by 5.29%, a contract for the ordinary shares of OAO Sberbank of Russia (-4.11%). The contract for the ordinary shares of OJSC Bank VTB dropped in price on 4,61%. The contract for the shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel has now become the leader of the fall (-5.34%). The negative trend prevailed and the remaining contracts. In general, the contracts on stocks of oil companies fell by 1,25% - 3,77%.

Currency contracts strengthened against the ruble: thus, a pair of euro-ruble grew by 0.66%, the dollar-ruble pair at 1.55%. The contract for the euro-dollar rate had dropped in price by 0,9%.

Commodity contracts are now traded in the red. The contract for Brent crude oil fell more sort of - on 2,2%, revert to the values of the end of last week - $ 68.5. The contract for gold fell by 1.44% to $ 931.4, the contract price for silver has fallen by 2.16% to $ 13.60.

This evening went on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products in the United States, and will be published beige book Fed. They define the current movement of the contracts in the evening session.

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This year, the paper RusGidro can reach corridor 1,8-2 ruble per share

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

RusGidro - Favorite non-

Today, correction on the Russian stock market continued. Accordingly, the market participants the opportunity to buy paper cheaper. The main factor is the reduction of the shares fall in oil prices. However, this factor is local, cash flows of companies, which are the current prices, gives a good potential for growth in market capitalization.

Rosneft net profit for the RAS in the first half amounted to 81.3 billion rubles. for the same period last year - 161.25 billion rubles. In the first quarter of the Rosneft was 5.8 billion losses. Rub. In the past quarter profit 87.01 billion rubles. Improved results in the second quarter of the company explains the growth of world and domestic prices of petroleum and petroleum products, increased production, as well as the formation of a positive exchange rate differences due to the weakening of the dollar. News, of course, pleased some investors, but the main thing is the financial results for the standard US GAAP, which we hope will please the market.

In his analysis and comments in news agencies, we have recommended to rely on fundamental analysis of companies and the market as a whole. It is a fundamental assessment of factors determine the dynamics of the market in the long term. From our point of view, the Russian stock market has considerable potential for growth fundamentals and the main driver of the implementation capacity should be the inflow of nonresidents to the Russian stock market. Templeton Asset Management is planning for two years to increase the assets of 50 billion dollars, up to 20% will be invested in Russia. Now Templeton investments in Russia amount to about $ 2 billion Templeton may increase the share of the Rusgidro from the current 0.5% to 10%.

From our point of view RusGidro most interesting feature in the power industry. And we are not much surprised if in the current year, the paper reaches the corridor 1.8-2 rubles. per share.

We continue to anticipate achieving the RTS index in the current year 1300-1500 Corridor items. Although note that the risks are significantly higher than in non-crisis period. Patience is bitter but its fruit is sweet.

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RTS and MICEX indexes continue to fight for the level of 1000 points

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Tenders were opened on Wednesday unexpectedly sharp decline in quotes for a moderately negative dynamics of futures for U.S. indices, Asian markets and oil prices. Perhaps the effect that Russia's major indexes had already fallen at the opening below 1000 points. MICEX index down when you open up to 980 points, but soon went up on the background of the positive opening of European markets.

As of 15:40 MICEX index losing 1.2% and is at the level of 990 points, while European indexes grow by an average of 1.5%.

The main reason for today's decline in favor of traders attention to the situation in the oil market: WTI quotes now losing more than 2% and fell below 66 dollars a barrel. Careful attention to the oil market linked to fears that the recovery, which is observed in the previous two weeks, was by and large bubble, swell in the background of the growth of stock markets, and not confirmed by the growth of real demand for energy. An additional concern caused yesterday's record API, which was marked by the growth of oil reserves at 4.1 million barrels. Today the market is waiting for release of official EIA data on stocks.

One has the feeling that the markets began to fizzle out after the rally, and records of corporations now diluted disturbing notes. An additional concern is the extent of planned for this week placements UST (scheduled to attract over 200 billion dollars), which can cause growth in their profitability. U.S. market under such conditions in the coming days is likely to be stagnant, but the Russian market is likely to lose 2-5%, if the EIA report does not relieve the tension on the oil market. At the sharp direction of movement of quotations in the U.S. before the end of the week we did not expect, because the major players are likely to wait for a first assessment of the U.S. GDP for the II quarter of 2009, which will be released on Friday.

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Technical Analysis Index SP 500

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

 

One of the key U.S. stock indexes SP 500 from March 2009 confidently moving bottom-up trend and has passed only two significant phase correction - in May and June. Our attention is attracted figure, formed from the fourth quarter of 2008 and a reminder to turn the model's head and shoulders. Assuming that this is indeed head and shoulders, the neck line runs at 945 points, and the top of Perforation, happened about a week ago, should be seen as the completion of the model, some time after which usually follows the course back to the neck line. Consequently, in the next 2-3 weeks there is a correction to the index level of 945. However, further model assumes that after returning to the line price is likely to grow to a length of neck, ie theoretically aim for the end of the third quarter of 1215 could be marked, with high scenario. Click to continue »

Corporate statistics are not encouraging of optimism in investors'

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Throughout the day, the U.S. indexes traded in narrow range, balancing between conflicting signals, which gives the U.S. economy. On the one hand, the data indicated a slowing pace of decline in real estate prices, which suggests the stabilization of the situation in the troubled sector of the American economy. SP Case Shiller index showed a weak recovery in real estate prices in May in 13 of the 20 United States metropolitan areas. On the other hand, the continued decline in consumer confidence (Conference board index fell to 46.6 on) and the growing uncertainty of consumers in the preservation of jobs suggest that recessionary processes have not yet been overcome and in 2009-2010 in the American economy will have to deal with a record Low domestic consumption and high unemployment.

Corporate statistics are not encouraging of optimism in investors. Deutsche bank beat expectations of experts, showing 68% priros profit in the second quarter, but shares of the Bank is still down because of fears of growth of overdue debts. Reporting BP also exceeded expectations due to paper income, but nevertheless reflected a 53% drop in profits due to the collapse in the oil market.

The pressure on the stock market continues to lean to a primary record in the market treasuries, which has become a major factor, but not the reason behind the exodus of capital from risky assets. Click to continue »

U.S. blamed speculators for inflated oil prices

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Washington SFTC the beginning of public hearings to discuss various options to tighten regulation of commodities markets. The Commission agreed that speculators have played a significant role in the rocking of oil prices (the full text studies CFTC will publish in August). Now, it intends to tighten the rules of investing in oil futures to financial companies, in particular, to establish limits for investments in commodity derivatives.

When the administration of President George W. Bush 's conclusions were antithetical. British financial regulator FSA last year also failed to find evidence of abuse. The analysis was carried out at the inferior statistics, explains Bart Chilton of the CFTC.

Last year the price hikes were unprecedented: In July, the peak was recorded at $ 147.5 per barrel in December - a minimum of $ 36.2. Petroleum traders manipulated the prices of major banks for several years: in the past two years, I testified three times before the U.S. Congress on the matter - said managing director of Oppenheimer Co. Fadel Gheit. - Regulators knew that this is happening, but public pressure forced they begin to speak the truth.

In July 2008, $ 300 billion was invested in commodity futures, estimated the International Energy Agency. This is almost four times more than in January 2006 among the major players of the oil market were Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, said earlier in an interview with Bloomberg, former senior advisor Dan Waldman CFTC.

This year, the prices also rose up and rushed twice for five months - with a minimum of $ 39.35 per barrel up to a maximum of $ 73.5 - and now exceed $ 69. Click to continue »

Conference on-line: Goskompaniya and roads: one becomes less self-fulfilling prophecy?

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Ladies and gentlemen!

After five minutes on the web site will begin conference on: Goskompaniya and roads: one becomes less self-fulfilling prophecy? .

As you know, the road - one of the traditional Russian concerns. Despite the fact that the arrival of the President of what travelerswant coverage carefully cloaked under the modern route, Dmitry Medvedev care to solve the problem and signed a law creating goskompanii Russian roads. Non-profit organization Autodor refer to the indefinite trust all of the new toll road and part of the federal routes.

According to the experts in road construction in Russia, one of the most opaque sectors, and the cost - much too high compared to other countries. Whether this state of affairs to create a new goskompanii? At that cost the use of toll roads?

Can goskompanii creation and experience of public-private partnerships in the industry to improve the situation with the poor road infrastructure and provide an impetus to the development of other infrastructure projects in the country?

Conference participants:

Yuri Sverdlov , Vice Chairman of State Duma Committee on Construction and Land Relations

Sergei Verevkin , Vice-President of the Russian association of contractors in the highway sector ASPOR

Michael Blinkin , scientific director of the Research Institute of Transport and Road Management

Sergei Pyatenko , Director General of Economics and law school FBK

Alexander Kholodov , chairman of the interregional public movement The Committee for the Protection of the rights of motorists'

Ask questions to experts, you can now!

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Yesterday, a pair of Euro / dollar to the U.S. session continued decline up to 1.4130

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Yesterday, a pair of Euro /dollar to the U.S. session continued decline up to 1.4130.

pound /dollar fell to 1.6390. The pair dollar /yen consolidated near the mark of 94.40. Exchange Euro /yen has fallen to U.S. session to 132.90

.

The experts noted that the support of the dollar has unexpectedly low value of the index of consumer confidence in the United States, reinforcing the reluctance of investors to risk.

Also supporting the dollar has had a statement by the head of the central bank that during the two-day meeting between senior politicians and economists United States and China discussed the stability of the dollar and its status as world reserve currency.

And, traditionally, the pressure on the euro has had a drop in stock indexes, the price of oil and precious metals.

Yesterday Dow Jones index of the New York Stock Exchange fell by 34.76 points (-0.38%). Nasdaq index rose 0.07 points (0.00%). SP 500 index dropped 4.67 points (-0.48%).

Yesterday index Frankfurt stock exchange Xetra DAX fell 16.04 points (-0.31%). The index of London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 fell 25.10 points (-0.55%). The index of the Paris stock exchange CAC 40 dropped 8.51 points (-0.25%).

Yesterday, the price of WTI crude oil in New York fell to the closure of bidding at 1.15 dollar to 67.22 dollars per barrel. During the bidding price dropped below the level of 66.80 dollars per barrel.

Consumer confidence in the United States for July 2009 amounted to 46.6 (47.5 forecast, the previous value of 49.3).

Today in Asia remained the main driver market Japanese yen, which is significantly correlated with the dynamics of the stock market. This Nikkei 225 index rose 24.27 points (0.24%). Index of the Hong Kong Hang Seng stock market falls by 335.44 points (-1.63%). Click to continue »

Course hryvna back in April

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

plates with the high dollar, as yesterday, bureaux de change did not exhibited since the beginning of April this year. According to the portal finance.ua, the average rate of purchase of cash dollar yesterday rose by 11 kopecks. - Up to 8,01 UAH., Course sales increased immediately by 19 kopecks. - Up to 8,17 UAH.

A similar situation was observed in the Interbank Foreign Exchange. According to the system Ukrdiling, bidding on the interbank foreign exchange market ended at the level of 8,1-8,2 grn. /$. According to the operators of the foreign exchange market yesterday, at Interbank hryvnia rate fell by about 20 cop., Themajority of deals were concluded at a rate close to 8,15 grn. /$.

growth rate in the U.S. currency, bankers blame the National Bank. The point is that the governor announced the intention to sell dollars on Interbank 27 July to 7,67 UAH. /$ And buy at 7.65 grn. /$, But before the end of the day and has not implemented the promised intervention. National Bank of Ukraine, for its part, such actions by the fact that some banks do not adhere to the established limits of open currency positions.

National Bank of Ukraine, starting from 28 July 2009, will examine the current deployed applications only from banks that hold foreign exchange market indicators, which are daily brought to the attention of banks, in the absence of a violation of the bank ... the limits of open currency positions, -- reported to the regulator in a letter to commercial banks.

National Bank sold $ 100 million
To reduce

created excitement, close to the middle of the National Bank yesterday announced its readiness to sell dollars in the interbank foreign exchange market at the rate of 7,75 grn. /$ to meet the needs of the existing foreign exchange market. This currency can not buy the banks, which had previously violated the requirements of the regulator regarding the limits of open currency positions.

Among these were finuchrezhdeny OTP Bank, UkrSibbank, Bank, Raiffeisen Bank Aval. Click to continue »