July 29th, 2009

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Sales in the Russian market are likely to worsen in the event of a further day Drawdown commodity prices

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Today forward makeweight yesterday sales

Yesterday, the main U.S. stock indexes finished the day in raznopolyarnyh areas do not want to hold the sale in European markets. Nasdaq Index was able to grow at 0.39%. The significant strengthening of the course the U.S. dollar during the European session, has caused decline in oil prices, so in the course of yesterday's auctions in the States are weaker than the rest of shares traded oil and gas sector, but banks were again at a height, which again contributed to statistics from the housing market. Thus the index of prices for homes for 10 major U.S. cities, calculated SP /Case-Shiller, rose in May 2009 to 0,4%, which was better than forecasts (-0.5%).

Today's trading on Asian markets also do not have a single dynamic movement index: action in the Japanese and Indian markets are growing a bit, but on the other - are falling. It's amazing, but the Japanese Nikkei index managed to rise, even against the backdrop of the strengthening yen rate against the dollar since June and data on retail sales in the country, which fell by 3% y /y.

Brent crude oil prices on Wednesday morning, falling to -0.63% ($ 69.5 /bbl) in the light of fresh data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed growth in commercial stocks of crude oil in the United States last week at 4.1 million barrels. Prices for gold is also affected by the strengthening of the dollar, losing for the day around $ 20 ($ 935/unts). U.S. futures indices are trading in negative zone: SP -0,34%.

The opening bid on the Russian stock market on Wednesday, we see a small gepom up within 1%, taking into account the fact that the closing price of our ADRs were slightly higher prices in the domestic market. But the day we will likely wait makeweight yesterday's wave of sales, while the MICEX index of confidence will go below 1000 points. Sales in our market could be worse, in the event of a further day Drawdown commodity prices. Adventure players will try to catch the local bottom, but so far it's quite risky. Dispel the pessimism could only positive data from the United States on orders for durable goods, and strong data on oil reserves.

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Chernovetskiy temporarily defeated

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Appeal adminsud Kiev gave the green light to the entry into force of the new tariffs for housing and communal services, with effect from 1 June However, major trials on the issue scheduled for the autumn - the active period of the presidential election campaign.

KSCA

the claim of appeal was abolished suspension Shevchenkivskyi raysudom capital coming into force of the new tariffs of housing and communal services in Kiev. Now that the new prices for zhilkommunuslugi running, the municipality can only appeal against the ruling of the Cabinet, which will perechit mayor.

However, the opposition does not lose hope. The first deputy head of the faction of the Bloc Klitchko DONETSK Natalia Nowak stated that adminsud of Appeal overturned the definition of Kyiv Shevchenko raysuda, pause raising rates, but the claim of the illegality of their promotions Shevchenkivskyi raysude has not yet been addressed.

Now the period of leave, so the court promised to consider it by September, - said Mrs. Novak. According to her, the decision of the Appeal adminsuda Kiev looks strange, given that the growth rate from June 1, suspended, not only the definition Shevchenkivskyi raysuda, but the decision of the Cabinet.

A deputy of the Kyiv city block Vitali Klitschko Valery Karpuntsov believes that the tariffs from June 1, in Kiev does not exist, despite the court decision.

After determining the Shevchenkivskyi raysuda, which suspended the tariff increases, the rhetoric of officials in the mayor's office was clear that the KSCA challenge the suspension, - said Mr. Karpuntsov .- Municipality is working closely with the Appeal adminsudom capital.

Valery Karpuntsov said: Despite the court decision, an order of the mayor suspended the decision of the Cabinet and it is an appeal to Viktor Yushchenko with a request to rescind his decree raising tariffs.

In

orders KSCA to raise tariffs, signed by Acting Chapter Anatoly Golubchenko KSCA, said that since June 1, rates for water heating, and approximately double, while prices for the homes and pridomovyh areas identified for each household separately. Click to continue »

C the first minutes of the trading on the Russian stock market will experience a rebound attempt in the banking sector

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Tuesday Russian indexes have completed a significant decrease: -3.45% RTS, MICEX -3.28%. The significant strengthening of the dollar, struck deals on raw materials, could not put pressure on the domestic market.

Energy: Gazprom -5.16% -3.06% Lukoil, Rosneft -2.35% -1.18% Surgutneftegaz. The banking sector: Bank -3.36%, -3.85% VTB. Sector of non-ferrous metallurgy: MMC NorNikel -2.72%, Polyus Gold -5.08%.

European indexes finished trading decline: the British FTSE100 -1.25%, German DAX -1.46%. The U.S. session starts significantly reduced. However, in the first minute bidding bulls have tried to play the fall. Collapse in oil prices have put pressure on the oil and gas sector is -1.62%. Ongoing negotiations between the United States and China, attracts the attention of investors. Statements by Paulson to curb the deficit triggered a significant strengthening of the dollar. Only the banking sector was able to significantly add 0.93%.

Shopping takes place against the backdrop of positive statements of regional banks and statements of individual leaders of the Fed. The result: DowJones -0.13%, SnP500 -0.26%, Nasdaq 0.39%.

Before opening

Asian session shows mixed trends: Japanese Nikkei225 0.17%, Chinese Shanghai Composite - 0.22%, the Australian Index All Ordinaries 0.02%. U.S. futures at SnP500 -0.09%. Quotes Ruble are now at around 31.09 (Forex). Oil brand Brent 69.69 (-0.27%). The pair euro /dollar. traded around 1.42.

Recommendations

expect a mixed opening. Attempts to rebound will occur in the banking sector since the early minutes. The oil and gas sector has lost support in the form of stable oil prices, so for short-term speculators will be more profitable to focus primarily on the actions of the Savings Bank. Recovery of oil prices is possible in the course of the day against a background of regular speculation in the dollar. Today at 18:00 expected output of oil and petroleum products (USA), which may add volatility quotes. Released the report of the American Petroleum Institute showed a significant increase in stock (4 million bar.). However, it is necessary to remind that the previous forecast of this institution was very far from the end u1094 figures. At 16:30 awaited data on orders for durable goods (United States).

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CMI has published results of production for the 2 nd quarter of 2009

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

On Tuesday 28 July, TNK-BP Ltd., has published the consolidated financial statements to U.S. GAAP for the first half of 2009. Reports TNK-BP Ltd., is a good guide for financial analysis of the main subsidiaries - TNK-BP Holding, whose shares are traded on the exchange. During the reporting period, revenue fell by 49% year to year to $ 14.5 billion the main reason for such a decline in the dynamics of oil prices Yuralz by 52%. Because the bulk of revenue comes in the dollar exchange rate has little influence on it. Some smoothing effect to fall in revenue has increased hydrocarbon production by 3% to 1.66 million barrels of oil equivalent in sutki.Obschie costs minus depreciation fell by 49% to $ 10.6 billion As a result, the company managed to maintain operating profitability at a level close to last year's level. The primary role played by falling costs and taxes fees, which are directly dependent on oil prices. At the same time, the significant role played by the ruble devaluation of U.S. dollar, accounting for 27%, resulting in transaction costs that are paid by the company primarily in rubles, down 26%. As a result, EBITDA companies has fallen by 49% to $ 3.8 billion, and profitability EBITDA - by 0,3 percentage points Net profit of TNK-BP fell by 57% to $ 2 billion the main reason for such a strong drop became a big loss on exchange rate differences, which, however, was evident in the first quarter. The debt load the company slightly reduced. Nevertheless, most likely, a reduction associated with revaluation of ruble-denominated obligations and is not a credit to the company. In general, TNK-BP has shown neutral results with some negative connotations, which were a logical continuation of the dynamics of the first quarter. According to our estimates, published reports should not significantly affect the stock quotes, TNK-BP.

27 July CMI published production results for the 2 nd quarter of 2009. The output of the final product did not change relative to the first quarter and amounted to 1.9 million tons. We note the slight improvement in sales by increasing the proportion of vysokomarzhinalnoy products, in particular the proportion of cold rolled products growth from 10% to 14% and production of deep rose from 11% to 15%. The proportion of free capacity in the second quarter (35% -40%), significantly higher than the average major Russian staleproizvoditeley (15% -20%). We believe that the published results were expected and the market will not have a significant impact on the quotes. We are looking forward to significantly improving the level of load in the third quarter. Our 12-month target price of shares of CMI is $ 0.47.

28 July meeting was held suppliers AvtoVAZ, which executive vice-president Igor Komarov announced changes in production plans for 2009. Overall in 2009, is scheduled to make 293 thousand cars and 39 thousand Vehicle. The previous forecast for production in 2009 - 475 thousand cars. In addition, AvtoVAZ is going to reduce the 27.7 thousand employees, representing 25% of the current number of employees. We appreciate the news on the reduction of production volume as a negative. Taking into account the volume of production in 2008 at 943 thousand cars and the Vehicle, AvtoVAZ plans to reduce production this year by 65% compared to last year. Compared with the previous forecast, plan production was reduced by 25%. Such a sharp decline in production due to low demand and the need for sales of stock at the beginning of the year. With respect to 25% of staff, in the face of sharp decline in this measure, we believe, is justified and would reduce costs, as well as the amount of damages. According to our estimates, the fair value of 1 ordinary share of OJSC AvtoVAZ is $ 0.56, growth potential - 45%. Fair value of 1 preferred share is $ 0.22, which implies upside potential of 157% and is consistent with the recommendations of buy.

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