With the end of a record in terms of placements treasuries pressure on diminishing liquidity, and capital once again returns to the risky assets. The key factors supporting the stock markets have become corporate records, and improved in anticipation of the publication of GDP U.S. economic expectations. Domestic Indexes after takeoff yesterday at 6% (on MICEX), today, is likely to continue to rise, as they should support the oil price, quotes, which again exceeds threshold of $ 70/barrel.
After a very nondescript week of U.S. indexes turned upward: Dow gained 0,92%, SP - about 1.2%. Corporate reporting and recommendations on improving a number of brokerage houses were the key factors behind the growth of American markets. Because reporting is to provide a smaller than expected loss of Sony, in the way of profits, plus Master Card and a good record Motorolla and Visa. Improving the recommendations by analysts at GE has caused the company to take-off quotations 9,5%
In other news worth noting surpassed the expectations of the results of the auction for seven treasuries, as well as a slowdown in applications for unemployment benefits.
In general, after successfully passing a series of auctions treasuries at a total cost of $ 215 billion, the pressure on the stock market has reached its climax on Wednesday, slept, and again rushed into the capital assets are risky, especially in raw materials. Quotations of oil jumped above $ 70 a barrel, prices for base metals also rose almost 1%,
rally in commodity markets was a major factor podtolknuvshih Asian market to grow. Index MSCI Asia today is growing at 1.3%, thus, for 5 consecutive month closing month in the black. More confidence to investors gives a strong corporate reporting by Japanese companies, the issuance of the last days. At the wave of optimism and the influx of liquidity of Asian investors chose not to pay attention to makrostatistiku that showed unemployment in Japan has continued to climb upward, reaching 6-year-old is already the maximum.
Domestic indices, despite the impressive leap in yesterday's auction, today, must continue to increase, otygryvaya recovery in the market of raw materials. We believe that the growth of the MICEX index of about 2-3% on the day. Quotations of oil soared nearly 5% in New York and has already cost $ 70/barrel, which is a good tool for the Russian oil sector, especially in the context of a good semi-annual reporting companies. In addition, we expect continuing growth in the industry and the banking sector, becoming one of the leaders in the auction in the U.S. and Asia.
From the corporate news is little accountability to Surgutneftegas, which, in contrast with Lukoil and Rosneft, has reduced profits in the second quarter (mostly due to foreign exchange revaluation of huge money in the accounts of the company) to 8 times compared with the first - before 8.5 billion rubles.
In the steel industry is to provide decision Polyus Gold to share profits with shareholders: the half-pay 1.25 billion rubles. dividends, which can be a significant factor in support for the company's shares, shareholders will consider this matter on September 14 and closes the register on 7 August.
In addition, we believe that a good speculative factor for the growth of quotations Norilsk nickel should be the growth of production in the second quarter: it became known as SMC, increased production of nickel at 2.9% of the I quarter (up to 71 000 tonnes ), copper - at 4.1% (up to 100 000 tonnes). Total semester - 143 400 tonnes of nickel (-1.8% in 2008) and 195 507 tonnes of copper (-6%).
In the banking sector on the idea of placing dopemisii shares can demonstrate the rapid growth of VTB. Despite the fact that the price of placement shares will be known only at the end of August, when the current market environment is likely that it will exceed current levels.
In general we believe that during the day positive mood of investors continue, supported by expectations of the output statistics of the U.S. GDP in the second quarter: projections suggest reduction in the rate at 1.5%, but after the collapse of 5% in the first quarter of the market practically equated a slight decline in growth.
Next week (if you do not disappoint on the U.S. GDP) growth appears to begin with. Output on Tuesday of expenditures and income Americans, and statistics on real estate market can support the market, enabling a new wave of growth. Fixation profit is expected at the end of the week, when optimism about the economic recovery come to the statistics on the labor market in the United States, which is unlikely to please the investors.
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