July, 2009

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Under the blow of paper may be today the banking sector and oil companies

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

European sites raznonapravleno closed, but near the opening. On the U.S. market dominated by sales. Yesterday, all the expected publication of a series of macroeconomic data, including the Fed Beige Book from the U.S., as well as oil according to the Ministry. Published data on stocks were not a surprise, but also drive the markets did not add - oil stocks rose last week by nearly 5 million barrels, while distillates stocks also rose. It was the reason for the collapse of vast oil market - after the publication of these prices collapsed by almost 6% to a level of $ 63/barrel. Stock in the area lost 0.5%, leading to falling shares of the commodity sector and banks (perhaps only the exception of Citigroup). The dollar began to strengthen, some investors once again became U.S. bonds, gold also deshevelo, to a level of $ 930/untsiyu. Click to continue »

As leaders of the growth of Russian fuel and energy complex corporate securities, preferred and ordinary shares of Tatneft grow at 5.29% and 3.14% respectively

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

MICEX Index today rose by 12:30 Moscow time on 1,06% and was, therefore, 997.29 points.

outsiders in the market to the above date again proved AvtoVAZ shares - as preferred, and common stock - decreased by 0.99% and 0.91% respectively. At this time, the dynamics of quotations of securities of Russian automakers, possibly reflecting the impact of published yesterday by the relatively unfavorable statistics of orders for transportation equipment in the United States.

On Wednesday the market data, a corporation Polimetall in 1 half of 2009, gold production decreased by 3%, silver - 2% (g /d). Such information was generally expected by investors. As a result, the sale of securities of the company, apparently stepped on the fact of the event. Losses capitalization Polymetal this morning at 0.72%.

led growth against a background of oil went up today paper corporations Russian fuel and energy complex, first of all - the privileged and the ordinary shares of Tatneft, adding, respectively, 5.29% and 3.14%.

The progress Tatneft in the development of bitumen deposits in the background of the depletion of the Russian Federation is relatively easily accessible oil, apparently, had rates of securities of the company's further support.

Stocks Acron rose this morning at 2.01%. Unconsolidated figures for the profit of RAS, published today, as expected by operators, have been relatively weak. However, data revenues and profitability Akron said the high demand for nitrogen and compound fertilizers in Russia due to the sharp decline in their value.

In general, judging by the quotes, above all, the American segment of the stock and sector carry trade, investors interested in venture investment remains at a relatively high level, including - under the influence is still very significant administrative and monetary support to financial markets of the regulatory structures. Perhaps, after some technical breaks, the world's stock markets, and including, the Russian segment, in the coming weeks will continue to increase.

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Under the blow of paper may be today the banking sector and oil companies

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

Yesterday, the Russian markets showed mixed trends, but the trend was mostly downward in a short period of recovery. In the second half of the day was to go negative statistics from the United States, which, coupled with falling oil prices and have identified the negative of the Russian sites. As a result, the MICEX index fell by 1.54% to a mark of 986.8 points, while the RTS index - by 2.8% to 973.8 points.

Of the total allocated to the fall of several companies that showed good growth. This, above all, expensive second session Magnit (5.6%) and Dorogobuzh (2.8%), Severstal (1.5%) and Polymetal (2.5%). Among the declining stocks are allocated mainly oil and gas securities (average reduction of about 1-2%), as well as banks - Sberbank and VTB have lost about 2.5%.

European platform closed raznonapravleno, but near the opening. On the U.S. market dominated by sales. Yesterday, all the expected publication of a series of macroeconomic data, including the Fed Beige Book from the U.S., as well as oil according to the Ministry. Published data on stocks were not a surprise, but also drive the markets did not add - oil stocks rose last week by nearly 5 million barrels, while distillates stocks also rose. It was the reason for the collapse of vast oil market - after the publication of these prices collapsed by almost 6% to a level of $ 63/barrel. Stock in the area lost 0.5%, leading to falling shares of the commodity sector and banks (perhaps only the exception of Citigroup). The dollar began to strengthen, some investors once again became U.S. bonds, gold also deshevelo, to a level of $ 930/untsiyu.

Asian market with the start of bidding is also declining, the leading Chinese site. In Japan, was published on promproizvodstve (an increase of 2.5% m-k-m, with the growth recorded for the fourth consecutive quarter), but the production car have been disappointing (fall of production by 34%, while exports fell by more than 46% ).

All this, coupled with sluggish sales at sites commodity form negative background before opening Russian market. Under the blow of paper may be today the banking sector and oil companies. It is necessary to draw attention to reporting the largest companies in the U.S. and the EU - Exxon Mobil, Dow Chemical, Master Card, Royal Dutch Shell, Siemens. In the 16-30 will be available on applications for unemployment benefits, and according to the report yesterday from the Fed, a significant improvement of the market do not have to wait. We expect correction to the area of 950 items on the MICEX, but during the bidding may be trying to break outside the negative and find greater levels of consolidation of the indices.

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Overview of the foreign exchange market 30.07.2009

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

 

Posted yesterday monthly Ifo Institute survey of more than 4 000 companies showed that 45.1% of German companies in July, TG noted the limited access to credit instruments. This is the maximum value of this indicator in March 2006 The previous month the rate was 42.4%. In compiling the review was attended by industry, construction, retail and wholesale companies.

Among the published in the last weeks of macroeconomic indicators, the statistics, perhaps most clearly demonstrates the low elasticity of anti-crisis measures ECB, the need to revitalize the leading European Central Bank action associated with the policy of quantitative easing, and perhaps a further reduction in their base interest rates.

Against this background rate EUR /USD on Wednesday fell to 1.4000 marks and stores near the medium-term prospects of further weakening.
However, the situation in the area of relatively high-risk assets to continue to be able to meaningfully constrain the process of reducing the relative value of European currencies in the international market.


Yesterday

information that the indicator changes in U.S. orders for durable goods in June TG was -2.5% (m /m) with an average forecast of equal in this case only -0.7% and the value of the previous month, revised down to 1.3% versus 1.8% previously.

However, it is important to note that without the traditionally relatively unstable data trends in demand for transportation equipment specified indicator showed markedly higher than the value predicted by analysts. It was 1.1% (m /m) against the expected, on average, zero-market changes of the indicator and revised with a relatively small deterioration - up to 0.8% versus 1.1% previously - indicator index for the previous billing period. Click to continue »

Oil prices in the near future may test support of $ 65 per barrel mark for Brent

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

The decline in oil prices and the sale of the stock market slightly tarnished China sentiment in world markets. In the domestic players, among other things, was another reason for selling - the ruble plummeted in the environment. As a result, the MICEX and RTS indexes fell below 1000 points, continuing the correction began. It is not clear how long it can become. We think that much will depend no longer on the behavior of Wall Street, but on oil prices, which soon may test support for 65 dollars - to mark Brent, while the U.S. WTI could reach the level of $ 60

The Russian government has decided not to increase from 1 January 2010 NDPI and export duties on gas. This is a positive development to Gazprom, however, on the state budget, it is not clear: you have to consider that to count on risingprices for gas in 2010 is premature: it will depend on oil prices. In addition, Gazprom is used to enter into long-term contracts. One hopes only on the growth of exports.

now await data on the level of unemployment in Germany, it is expected to grow to a maximum level of 1.5 years. Against this backdrop, the euro continues to cheapen the dollar - yesterday, has already been tested support 1,40.

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Net profit of OGK-1, on the basis of 1 semester of 2009 on RSA has more than 12-fold to 1.6 billion rubles

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

Net profit of OGK-1 for the first half of 2009 on RSA has more than 12 times - up to 1.6 billion rubles, the report says the company.

Revenue OGK-1 for the January-June 2009 amounted to 19.7 billion rubles, which is 4.9 billion rubles (20,2%) less than during the same period of 2008

Among the factors that influenced the change of the indicator, the company explains the formulation of the optimization power of WGC-1 in connection with the collapse of the primary energy consumption and discharge of thermal generation, as well as lowering the price of a free competitive market in electricity sector.

Cost of sales for the first half of 2009 decreased by 5.7 billion rubles (26,2%) - up to 16.1 billion rubles.

faster cost reduction compared to the rate of reduction of revenue due to reduction in variable and fixed costs. This, in particular, was the result of which the OGK-1 comprehensive program to reduce costs, as well as gradual (quarterly), rather than ad hoc, as in previous years, the increase in gas tariff, with a one-indexed (from 1 January 2009) tariffs for electricity and heat, said the company. Click to continue »

The forecasts of analysts: the Russian stock market at the opening try to restore some wasted positions, while the MICEX index went to 1000 mark

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

 
  
 
 
  30.07.09 10:20 ;
  Yesterday in the Russian market continued to correctional movements in the background of falling of quotations of oil and the strengthening of the dollar against major world currencies. As leaders of decline were shares GMK «Norilsk nickel» (- 4,09%). Oil and gas industry as a whole demonstrated obscherynochnuyu momentum moving for the quotations of oil: «Gazprom» (-1,54%), «Gazprom Neft» (-1,22%), «Rosneft» (-0,09%). Papers banking sector looked slightly worse than the market: «Bank» (-2,4%), VTB (-2,4%). Shares of steel companies have demonstrated mixed dynamics: CIM (-1.2%), NLMK (0,4%), «Severstal (1.6%).

Of the liquidity of securities in the positive zone of the day completed the Severstal (1.6%), Surgutneftegaz (0,77%),« Polimetall »(2,53%). Better the market on Thursday, the paper looked consumer sector: «Magnet» (5,6%), «Dixy» (1,85%), supporting papers have statements of Chapter Templeton Asset Management on the good prospects for the industry.

According to the results of yesterday's session, the RTS index showed a decline of 2.8% to 973.78 points. MICEX Index has completed trades in «red» to 1.54%% to 986.8 points. In the evening session on Thursday September FORTS futures on RTS index fell by 0.99% to a value of 93,660 points.

This morning course a pair of euro /dollar at Forex stands at 1.4.

Oil prices dropped sharply yesterday after the published data on stocks of fuel in the United States, under which oil reserves increased by 1.5% instead of the expected decline. September futures on oil brand Brent traded at around $ 66.84 a barrel, Light - $ 63.31 per barrel.

this morning background again negative for the Russian stock market. On Wednesday, the U.S. stock indices closed in the negative range: Dow-Jones index fell by 0,29%, SP - on 0,46%, Nasdaq - on 0,39%.

Asian indexes today traded in the green zone: Japanese Nikkei index has now grown to 0,51%. China's Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.6%. Click to continue »

At the opening of the Russian market will continue to decline following the commodity trading companies

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

On Wednesday, under pressure from the negative external background of the Russian stock indexes opened decline. During the day, support the growing European markets have stock market indicators, but the negative trend in oil prices has had a significantly higher pressure, resulting in the RTS index fell by 2,80%, MICEX index fell by 1.54%.

Against the backdrop of falling oil prices falling share prices of oil and gas companies: Gazprom (-1.54%), Rosneft (-0,1%), Lukoil (-0.8%). Papers banking sector looked slightly worse than the market: Sberbank (-2.4%), VTB (-2,4%). Shares of steel companies have demonstrated mixed dynamics: CIM (-1.2%), NLMK (0.4%), Severstal (1.6%).

On Wednesday U.S. stock indices closed in the negative range, in particular, S P500 index fell by 0.5%. The market declined after the shares of commodity companies, the pressure that had podeshevevshie oil and metals. At the same background of the Asian indexes today show predominantly negative trends. Oil prices dropped sharply yesterday after the published data on stocks of fuel in the United States, under which oil reserves increased by 1.5% instead of the expected decline. Price barrel of oil brand Brent is at a level of $ 66.5.

According to our estimates, this morning's background again negative for the Russian stock market. Most likely, at the opening of the market will continue to decline following the commodity trading companies. However, the increase in futures on U.S. stock indicators able to support the Russian index. In the course of today's trades may affect the data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, which will be published in 16.30.


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Prices of cereals culture rise fall

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

low demand for cereals culture has forced farmers to reduce the area under buckwheat, millet, rye and oats. This year, however, demand for these low-cost culture may increase as incomes have decreased substantially.

Compared to last year, the area under buckwheat dropped by 10 thousand hectares to 290 thousand to 280 thousand hectares. Under the oats in the past year has been allocated 440 hectares this year compared with 460 thousand hectares in the past. Area under millet also decreased from 145 hectares to 136 hectares. Decrease in the overall collection of cereals crops will also contribute to very favorable weather conditions.

Experts attributed the reduction in demand for cereals to spread the culture of soybean and the transfer of pastoralism in the new technology-feeding, with the result that instead of oats,millet and buckwheat wastes became fodder maize and soy flakes. With regard to the food market, these grains are not in great demand among Ukrainians. Click to continue »

Perhaps after a certain pause, world stock markets in the coming weeks will continue to increase

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

RTS Index on the basis of today's auctions has lost another 2.80% to end up 973.78 points. Indicator RTS-2 in the closure of the session decreased markedly lower - at 0.7%, up to 877.62 Friday.

The main reason for the negative dynamics of the most liquid Russian shares on Wednesday - this, obviously, the price of light oil, falling under the influence of hard statements of American regulators for two days at 7%. Against this background, the Russian stock market look today in the international financial sector is relatively weak.

On the other hand, once again the role of defense of the equity securities of domestic segment successfully executed the action a second tier, presented at the Russian Trading System stock exchange industry, consumer goods and retail.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock indexes dropped by the opening of the session under the influence of a larger than expected by investors, reducing the index of goods in the durable goods orders, by the end of the first hour of the trading began quite actively restore their positions.

It is important to note that without the traditionally relatively unstable data trends in demand for transportation equipment specified indicator showed markedly higher than the average forecast by analysts value. In addition, orders for capital equipment, excluding defense goods and aircraft industry showed in June TG second consecutive increase, which usually means an overall increase of investment in the U.S. economy in the period.

Trend of U.S. macroeconomic statistics, received in recent weeks against the backdrop of the continued support of the global financial sector from the regulatory structures are still, in general, are favorable for the bulls in nature. Perhaps after a certain, in many ways - technical breaks, the world's stock markets, including - to the Russian segment, in the coming weeks will continue to increase.

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