Quotations euro currency to the U.S. concluded the last trading day last week, quite a strong increase, accounting for the results of the Friday session of 1.4250 against 1.4165 the previous day.

Part of this development, it seems, is due to reaction of the currency pair on the overall recovery in the sector of risk assets, observed in recent days.

At the same time U.S. GDP statistics published on Friday, as a whole is beneficial to conservation in the coming weeks, the positive dynamics of the influx of investments in risk.

Changing America's gross domestic product in II quarter. 2009 was -1% (g /d) at an average prognosis, in this case is equal to -1.5%. Such dynamics has been achieved despite the fact that in the previous quarter decline in U.S. GDP has proved equal to 6.4%, which is significantly more than the previous assessment of this indicator stands at 5.5%.

growth in public investment and improvement in net exports of the United States, thus, were able to substantially offset the decline in U.S. consumption and the volume of private investment in the economy, the negative impact on the overall dynamics of which the U.S. gross domestic product statistics, however, declined to Compared with the previous two quarters.

However, the greatest impact on the USD at the closing quotes of the week, it appears, has no macro-economic, financial statistics, and increased purchases of assets in U.S. debt market by the Fed.

must be pointed out that the investigations on Tuesday and Wednesday accommodate 2 - and 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds have attracted relatively little interest investors. However, the sale on Thursday, seven trezheriz characterized by relatively high level of applications for purchase from the Foreign Central Bank, which at the conclusion of the auction show a relatively high level of correlation of market demand and supply, amounting to 2.63.

Increase the amount of Fed actions associated with the growth of the balance of the assets of the American Central Bank, in current circumstances, could be due to how the results of the past at the beginning of last week's consultations, financial management with the United States of China, and the intention of the Treasury and the Fed reverse the possible negative impact segment on safe investment vehicles currently developing rally in the stock market of America and higher prices at the global commodities sector.

In addition, the results scheduled for August 6, TG meetings of the ECB and the Bank of England, quite possibly, will also testify to the action of central banks in the policy of quantitative easing. Central Bank of Britain has completed a program for buying on the open market bond amounting to 125 bln stg. and is expected this week ask the government to request him to raise the limit acquisitions of public, commercial and corporate securities remains at least - to 25 bln stg.

As for the European Central Bank, the decision of its August meeting may determine the latest information on the reduction of activity in the credit segment EMC.

As practice shows, the joint action of central banks in the financial markets are more effective than shares held by them in the absence of international cooperation.

Given these assumptions, increasing the relative value of the euro against the U.S. dollar in the short run may continue in the traditional for the last few years of positive correlation rate EUR /USD and quotations on the segment of highly risky assets. However, in the longer term, the negative pressure on the performance of the relative value of European currencies to the dollar, it seems, will increase as a result, including - carried out by leading European governing bodies of monetary policy.

Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 11:00 Moscow time was 31.26 and 37.25 rubles. against, respectively, 31.21 and 36.96 rubles. Friday morning at the auction.

In the near future, under the influence of improvements in the Russian financial and world commodity segments, the Russian currency on the international FX whole seems to be able to demonstrate an increase of prices.

However, in the medium term course of its decline in the global foreign exchange market may continue. Expected in the coming quarters of strengthening the central financial support to domestic consumption and investment in the environment may have a relatively smooth process of improving external payments RF performance will contribute to the development of this trend.

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What is the height at this time will become an insurmountable obstacle?

Trades on Friday were quite volatile, which was connected with the data on GDP for the United States II quarter of this year - the impact on the course of the trading impact of the expectation and the preliminary data, and the figure. These have contributed to the closure of the market in the United States in a symbolic plus. U.S. futures indices traded in a small, black, is about 0.2% - 0.3%.

The main driver of growth in the futures will open with black gold. Futures oil brand Brent traded on the monthly maxima above level $72 per barrel. Apart from weakening U.S. dollar, supported by a forecast of an early deficit in black gold. Positive commodity markets will be played at the opening of the Russian sites. In addition, the run-up in oil prices affect the domestic currency, which will support the strengthening of the Russian market as a whole.

After a positive opening of the domestic market has traditionally be correlated with the futures on the SP 500 index and oil prices. In the case of retention of current levels at the Russian sites during the session will be dominated by the purchase, which will lead to a renewal of local maxima - before they left quite a bit. MICEX Index at the opening will be held this point up to which is only about 5 points. An important resistance levels are 1080 - 1085 items in this range is 61.8% correction on th Fibonacci of annual maxima. On the approach to this level recommends a reduction of position. The main level of resistance is the 1100 points mark. This is a reference point not only has a psychological significance - it passes the level of resistance to historical highs. However, the MICEX index is unlikely to be able today to climb to such heights.

Adjust trades can move the traditional publishing statdannyh, the main of which are the index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector and costs in the construction sector. The main motion vector in the week will set the main event of the week waiting for - the publication of a report on the U.S. labor market for July. Market participants are waiting for the disclosure of data on unemployment, which can dispel the myth of improvement in the labor market.

Against the backdrop of rising oil prices on oil (Futures Brent oil brands from the closure of the Russian market the previous day gained about 4%), demand will benefit from the action of oil and banking sectors. Many of these securities industries will be able not only to approach the levels of resistance, but also to break them. The leader of the last session of last week, VTB, may continue to rise, which is able to suspend the 61.8% correction on th Fibonacci of annual maxima (4,38 cop.). Shares of Sberbank has finally been able to pass significant resistance - 43 rub. Which keeps the end of June. The next level of resistance may become a point 44 rub. - 50% th Fibonacci correction on. Market participants can pull the paper Sberbank to levels of VTB, whose shares are much closer to the annual maximum.

High oil prices do not ignore the action of oil and gas sector. Paper Gazprom and Lukoil could punch psychologically important mark - 165 and 1600 rubles. respectively.

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global economic crisis has revealed the economic irrationality of the PRC and problems such as inadequate levels of industrial chain, low industrial value added, the lack of provision of technical resources, excessive dependence on external demand, etc. As a result of surveys conducted in more than 10 Chinese provinces, experts identified eight structural contradictions in the Chinese economy.

First, in the structure of production co-exist and the problem of excessive productivity deficit proposal. Currently, the branches of heavy chemical industry has increased the problem of excessive productivity, which can lead to inaction of the production infrastructure. According to statistics, in the metallurgical industry excess output to 160 million tons. Despite this, in March, China has become one of the largest importing countries of rolled steel, and in May, the volume of imports rose by 1 million tons. In the cement industry has achieved productivity excess of 300 million tons, but in April this year in this industry have invested a total amount of 12.9 billion yuan, a 65% increase compared with that of last year.

With regard to the production of high-tech products, because of the massive reduction in production in the country has identified shortfalls in supply. Because of the relative underdevelopment of the sector providing services to consumer demand can not be satisfied, for example, the industry focused on service industries, and industry, focusing on services for older people, despite the demand, are still at an early stage of development.

Secondly, co-exist in the organizational structure of industrial monopoly and excessive competition. In the face of financial crisis, state power, petrochemical, coal industry and the civil aviation industry with financial support to overcome difficulties, but many private companies are not able to overcome these problems. Increasing monopolization of industry, declining price elasticity for the products and resources, limits the ability of companies to manage production costs.

However, because of the decline in market conditions in the industries of textiles, electrical appliances, electronics, metallurgy and machine building industry competition hardens, resulting in reduced profits.

In the third, coexist stage and homogeneous distribution in relation to geographical location. The investment and turnover in the first five months of this year show that the growth in central and western parts of China, significantly higher than in coastal areas of eastern China, in Tianjin, and Fujian, which are considered second echelon, also increases the intensity of development that stimulates the recovery rate of the economy. On the other hand, the uniform distribution is present in places that do not have a clear regional division of labor. In many provinces, public enterprises are placed on the production of electronic media, automotive and animated elements.

And fourthly, in the process of expansion of traditional industries coexist scale expansion and constraints. Click to continue »

In Friday trading on the Russian market opened moderate growth, while continuing to inertia otygryvat external positive the day before (the positive momentum for the world's major stock sites, 5%-ing a jump in oil futures and a similar movement in the prices of metals). However, since the improvement of the external background was mostly already play to our market on Thursday, optimism had a short. Market fixed income in anticipation of the key events of the day - a report from the U.S. Ministry of Trade preliminary estimate of GDP in 2Q09.

A report produced for the market mixed impression. On the one hand, it confirmed even more-than-expected slowdown in U.S. economic slowdown (-1% in the consensus-forecast of -1.5%), which was seen as a sign of the imminent completion of a recession. The main contribution to slowing down the recession has made deficit reduction the U.S. current account (imports declined significantly stronger exports) and gosrashody. A record decline in firm stock, in general, is also evaluated positively, as the clearance warehouse for future growth promproizvodstva. This, in fact, the positive ends. Worse than expected decline in consumer spending was - the basis of the American economy (-1.2% vs. -0.5% expected), primarily due to durable goods. The rate of decline of private investment has slowed in comparison with the previous quarter, but remained double-digit. A negative surprise was the unexpected and the revision to the deterioration of the third, final estimates of GDP for 1Q09 (c -5.5% to -6.4%). Ministry of Trade explained that a regular review of data series on GDP and other indicators of national accounts from 1929 to 1Q09. The first reaction of markets to record a decline (especially noticeable in the U.S. Futures), but after opening the bidding in the U.S. indices went into plus podtyanuv a Russian indices (MICEX 0.65%, 1.6% ITS), on the American market is on the basis of closing auction was neutral.

leading growth in the Russian market were shares of VTB Bank (9.8%), the occasion was the announcement of the beginning of the reception Tuesday for participation in the placement of additional issue of shares under the preferential rights (the price of accommodation will be determined by the Supervisory Board towards the end of August). The market is dominated by expectations that the price of accommodation will be significantly above current market prices (financial director of VTB N. Tsehomsky previously stated that it will be determined based on the book value of equity capital the bank at the end of 2010, which, according to our estimates, is 4.7 kopecks . but sounds more optimistic projections). This leads to heating of speculative shares VTB, in addition, on Tuesday the bank will issue statements under IFRS for the 1Q09. However, more interesting to listen to the conference call for analysts, during which we hope to get the opinion of Bank's management on the current situation and outlook.

The main movement in global currency and commodity markets took place after the completion of the Russian bid, and it can support the market at the opening. Thus, against the backdrop of a marked weakening of the dollar and the euro, world oil prices added 2,3-3,8%, and quotes the September futures once again exceed $ 70/barr. U.S. futures this morning in a small, black, Asian indices traded raznonapravleno. Data on manufacturing activity in China, published on Saturday, confirmed the continued growth of 5 consecutive monthly increase and promproizvodstva index PMI. We expect the Russian market to play the accumulated external positive, opened with a break up.

Today, a significant market reports mention of manufacturing activity in Europe and the USA (ISM Manufacturing), retail sales in Germany, the cost of construction in the United States. Of the company reports there are Marathon Oil (United States) and the records of two major British banks (Barclays and HSBC). The key event of the week will report on employment in the United States (7 August), because the continued rise in unemployment is a major impediment to exit the American economy from the crisis, acknowledged on Saturday that the U.S. president, and B. Obama.

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