August 4th, 2009

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Indicator RTS 2-up trades rose by 0.39% and closed the session at around 921.47, paragraph

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

RTS Index today as a result of trades amounted to 1 074.49 Fri. That it corresponded to improve day-to 0.61%. Indicator 2, while the RTS rose by 0,39% and closed the session at around 921.47 points.

Technical factors are now largely determined by the nature of active investors. Achieving oil prices meaningful, in terms of recent months, the resistance level of $ 72 a barrel has caused, apparently, a record profit in shares of Russian fuel and energy complex. Paper banks are relatively active in price in the second half of July, TG in the global trend today is also felt the negative impact of sales.

On the other hand, against a background of higher prices for a number of leading non-ferrous metals to mark new highs in 2009, the growth leaders on Tuesday were shares of Russian steel and mining businesses.

At that segment of the investment allocated to the Russian Trading System on Tuesday shares in OAO Polyus Gold. Influenced by the published late last month of decline in gold production, the paper has recently listed several good market.

However, current information about the growth of net profit of Polyus Gold on the basis of II Blvd. 2009 in 5,7 times, and publication of data on the resumption of mining and construction corporation enrichment plant at Verninskom deposit in the Irkutsk region supported by the quotations of its shares.

Meanwhile, the U.S. macroeconomic statistics remain generally favorable for the bulls of the equity segment of the trend.

According to current information, the income of American consumers fell in June TG at 1.4% (m /m) when the market is expected to decline at an average rate of 1%. However, in this case, the dynamics of this indicator reflected the short-term impact of the May TG tax measures to stimulate consumer sector, in accordance with the economic plan for the Administration of B. Obama.

On the other hand, indicators of the dynamics of American consumption, as well as projected sales in the housing market, America, also published on Tuesday, were higher than the level of market forecasts.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. stock indices, after a decline of quotations at the opening of the New York session is now confident enough to restore the position to a positive territory.

World stock market awaits the outcome of the meetings scheduled for Thursday, the ECB and the Bank of England. Leading European Central Bank, appeared to closely monitor the results of anti-crisis policy of U.S. leadership and against the background of its relatively favorable at the moment, the results may intensify their actions in the area of macroeconomic monetary incentive.

In this regard, despite the persistence of medium risk growth volatility in the Russian segment of the global stock, its dynamics in terms of weeks, it appears, will continue to be bullish in nature.

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As of 18:00 Moscow time the volume of trades on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 141.07 billion rubles

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

As of 18:00 Moscow time the volume of trades on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 141.07 billion rubles. or 4.52 billion dollars MICEX index, compared with the value of the close of the previous trading day down by 1.28 Point (0.116%) to 1097.67 p.

MICEX Oil Gas Index - fell to 13.58, paragraph (0.637%) to 2116.86 section, MICEX Power Index - rose 38.45, paragraph (2.22%) to 1770.05 section, MICEX Telecommunication Index - fell by 1.1 p. (0.093%) to 1186.45 section, MICEX Metals and Mining Index - fell by 7.4 Point (0.26%) to 2833.79 section, MICEX Manufacturing Index - rose 15.31, paragraph (1.513%) to 1027.15 section, MICEX Financials Index - fell to 35.55, paragraph (1.047%) to 3361.14 p.

MICEX Large Cap Index - fell by 6.98 Point (0.389%) to 1786.86 section, MICEX Mid Cap Index - rose 18.36, paragraph (1.184%) to 1568.61 section, MICEX Start Cap Index - rose to 0.81 Clause (0.034%) to 2366.45 p.

leading growth were:

BuryatES (26.18%)

KorshGOK SA (20.00%)

TambEnSb-p (17.02%)

RostovES-p (14.04%)

TambEnSb (11.90%).

leaders falling steel:

KamchatE Ap (-23.77%)

KorSsis Up (-8.47%)

PIC SA (-7.13%)

IKAR SA (-6.16%)

RTM SA (-5.68%).

index of corporate bonds MICEX CBI CP compared with the value of the close of the previous trading day increased by 0.06 Point (0.068%) to 87.98 p. As of 18:00 Moscow time with the corporate bonds concluded 1270 transactions in the amount of 8.2 billion rubles . Yield on bonds GazpromA11 with the date of repayment in June 2014 was 13.18% (-0.09 percentage points) on the bonds IKS5Fin 04 with the date of repayment in June 2016 - 15.59% (-0.37 percentage points) on bonds IKS5Fin 01 with the date of repayment in July 2014 - 14% (0.15 percentage point), the IBRD 04obl bonds with maturity date in February 2014 - 14.5% (-0.2 percentage points) on the bonds VTB-LizF03 with the date of repayment in June 2016 - 12.02% (-1.02 percentage points).

index of municipal bonds MICEX MBI CP compared with the value of the close of the previous trading day increased by 0.34 Point (0.395%) to 86.44 p. As of 18:00 Moscow time with the regional bonds reached 157 transactions amounting to 842.44 million rubles . Yield on bonds Mos.obl.9v from the date of redemption in March 2012 was 15.82% (-1.18 percentage points) on the bonds MGor45-on with the date of repayment in June 2012 - 13.36% (-0.02 PP .) bonds MGor62-on with the date of repayment in June 2014 - 13.95% (-0.05 percentage points) on the bonds SamarObl 3 with the date of repayment in August 2011 - 13.92% (0.08 PM) , on bonds MGor59-on with the date of repayment in March 2010 - 10.48% (-0.02 percentage points).

Value RGBI price index was 116.06. Compared with the closing of the previous day, he rose to 0.01 Clause (0.009%). The volume of trades in the market for government securities amounted to 22.12 billion rubles. Yield on bonds SU25059RMFS5 with the date of repayment in January 2011 was 11.02% (0.43 percentage point), SU25064RMFS5 bonds with maturity date in January 2012 - 11.54% (-0.03 percentage points), on bonds with SU25065RMFS2 maturity date in March 2013 - 12.01% (0.02 percentage point), SU25066RMFS0 bonds with maturity date of July 2011 - 11.35% (0 items) SU46018RMFS6 bonds with maturity date in November 2021 he . - 11.81% (-0.09 percentage points).

At the end of the trading the MICEX currency market the U.S. dollar at the ETC in the calculations tomorrow was 31,112 rubles. the dollar, which is 8.2 kopecks. (0.263%) lower than rates in the previous trading day. Euro Exchange on ETC with calculations of tomorrow has increased by 29.82 kopecks. up to 44.8135 rubles. Total foreign exchange market transactions concluded in the amount of 11.03 billion dollars, which is 0.56% more than the previous trading day.


In Bond Market can be found information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trades on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market.

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The index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX fell 56.69 point, the index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 fell 48.75, paragraph

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

The index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Ksetra Daks (Xetra DAX) has fallen on 56.69 item (-1.04%), and is at the level of 5370.16. The index of London Stock Exchange Futsi 100 (FTSE 100) fell by 48.75 points (-1.04%), and is at the level of 4633.71. September futures on the index S & P 500 (SP 500) at Globekse (Globex) dropped 7.7 point at 993.0. Opening of the American stock index today is expected to bottom.

rate euro /dollar was established in the European session between the levels of 1.4365 and 1.4421. After yesterday's significant increase in the course of today there has been stabilization in a relatively narrow range. Recall that yesterday the euro /dollar has reached a level of 1.4441, with a maximum in December 2008.

The fall of stock indexes and oil prices encouraged investors close their long positions in more risky instruments, in particular on the euro.

Today, the price of oil in electronic trading in New York, dropped to 1.30 dollars to 70.28 dollars per barrel.

industrial price index (PPI) in Europe (16) June 0.3% for the month, -6.6% for the year (forecast 0.2% during the month, -6.6% for the year, the previous value of -0.2% for the month, -5.8 % per year).

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Stocks RusGidro rising against the market correction on the background of the positive results of the semi-annual company RSA

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

A small correction in the market since the growth of the past 3 trading sessions. MICEX index falling by 1%. In a 1% decline and European stock indices and prices of black gold. Markets made a technical stop in the continuing upward movement.

Shares of Russian companies for the most part reduced to 2%. About 3% of lost in the price of paper Uralsvyazinform, Gazprom oil and Uralkali. Unconditional leader of the fall of blue chips - shares of VTB (-5%) on a background of disappointing reports on the basis of 1 square. 2009 The size of the loss reflected the banks 20.5 billion rubles. significantly exceeded the consensus-forecast of analysts. This frustration reflected in today's dynamic stock quotes bank. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the negative financial result of the bank in the very difficult time interval of the current year should not outweigh the impact on its medium-term driver of placing additional issue of shares and determination of its price, which we estimate to be above the market quotation for 20-30%.

Against the backdrop of generally mild decrease in the market today highlighting the rise in shares of electricity companies. Stocks RusGidro (6.5%) reacted positively to the semi-annual results of the company to RSA, but nevertheless, the validity of this recovery, we doubt, given the opportunity to investors to buy shares in the additional issue of prices at 20% below current market quotations . Following the RusGidro rvanuli up and shares of other energy chips - FGC (3.8%). It may, of course, that the liquid paper sector simply catching up rapidly grown in recent market. In the black traded shares also Rostelecom (both ordinary and preference), and continues to rise in shares of Severstal (1.2%).

We look forward to a continued recovery in the Russian stock market, and recommend medium-and long-term investors to hold long positions. After the consolidation, under the level of 1100 points on the MICEX Index is likely to top out - to the area of peaks in 2009 While speculators will now be more comfortable feel, recording gains on previously purchased securities. The main driving factor in the domestic stock market continues to be the dynamics of quotations of oil futures, but their inability to confidently overcome the top of the June compel speculators nervous and pressing sell.

This evening we look forward to the publication of data on incomes and, in turn, consumer spending in the United States. It was expected that growth in consumer spending will remain at 0.3% from the previous month. If they are negative, it can cause a sharp intensification of market sales, as well as a review of previous data in the downward. The rate of pending sales of homes in the United States (18.0 MSC), already unlikely to affect the mood of investors, given the large amount of positive statistics on the housing market in the past two weeks, including in the aftermath of yesterday's data on the cost of construction, which showed an absolute increase in June ( only the second time since September last year).

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The end of a recession … or not?

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

USD

The mood was podporcheno dollar unexpectedly strong data on manufacturing, and from all over the world. One can not throw for traders to buy more risky assets, if the person all the signs of greening the world economy. Of course, to believe in global conspiracy does not want to, but optimism is superfluous to anything. In fact, the indexes of business activity had grown up only slightly and only in the UK PMI passed a key mark of 50 points, and even then, still not certain that the same again next month.

U.S. manufacturing sector declined in July, not so much as analysts had predicted, since the number of orders, output and exports rose, which is a sign of stabilization in the plants. The index of ISM, reflected an increase to 11-month peak at 48.9 from 44.8 in June. The decline began to slow down the pace, because there is a reduction of stocks, increased business investment, as well as the stabilization of demand in the global market. Meanwhile, a separate report showed that spending on U.S. construction projects rose in June due to the stabilization in the market of residential real estate, as well as increasing the number of government projects.

In addition, one should not forget that this week we are preparing to report NFP, and the first phase, we were pretty good - ISM employment component reached 45.6 to 40.7. This gives us hope that the labor market is not such big problems, as in the past, and the reduction of working is about to end. Today we are a bit away from the topic of employment, as we looked forward to a series of data from very different areas. First,of course, pay attention to earnings, as well as the cost of consumers. As we remember, the population is the backbone of the U.S. economy, and until such time as it would be spending their savings, the economy may be balancing on the edge of the abyss. In addition, it is worth to pay attention to data on pending transactions in the secondary market. This leading indicator of activity in the subject field. If recovery begins, it starts with this. Thus, if we are optimistic will see the data, wait for the next wave of dollar sales.

EUR

After rollback euro could gain strength and to get to a new peak, with unseen since mid-December last year. However, when compared with the past, the current movement is much more reasonable. In July, the rate of decline in output in the manufacturing sector slowed in the euro is stronger than anticipated, mainly due to a very strong indicator for Germany. Click to continue »

Tymoshenko calls on farmers to sell grain Rural Facility

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko calls on farmers not to sell grain for speculative prices, and take the opportunity to realize its agricultural foundation.

To ensure that you do not sell today for dumping grain prices, we propose to give part of the crop in the Agrarian Fund by the so-called mortgage rates - this is 60% of the purchase price, which has identified the Ministry of (agricultural policy), - says in a statement Head of Government, published in the newspaper Урядовый Courier on Tuesday.

According to her, set Minagropolitiki prices 30-40% higher than those that currently offer a grain trader. At the same time Yulia Tymoshenko stressed that the farmers can at any time redeem fund sold agricultural grains, where they will be profitable. If not, she said, the grain to redeem the State, paying the remainder of the purchase price of 40%.

The Prime Minister noted that the Agrarian Fund has promised to pay producers for grain delivered three days after the conclusion of the contract. Click to continue »

Yushchenko delivered Ukrprombank

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

It happened only on Friday. After a couple of days, the NBU will be able to extend the moratorium on the payment of deposits for another six months.

July 21, expired moratorium on payment of deposits in Ukrprombank. The first two days were quiet. In the third pulled people from the decisions of the courts or the execution. But he that is difficult to obtain because the bank accounts seized, and there is no money at all, - told a source at the bank.

A similar fate could await Nadra Bank, in which the moratorium expires next week, August 10. Both the government still refuses to recapitalize, and, in the case of Ukrprombank it can be eliminated. The situation in the bank Nadra more transparent, argues Director of the Department of State participation in the capitalization of the banks Finance Teymur Baghirov.

Any decision which the Government is considering would provide that all investors-natural persons and Ukrprombank bank Nadra will be protected and their deposit will be returned, - he said last Friday in an interview with one of the publications.

Last Friday, Mr. Baghirov confirmed that a decision on Ukrprombank will be accepted after the entry into force of the law on the rehabilitation of banks. July 24, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law regulating the financial rehabilitation of banks. Pending the entry into force of this Act, the Government would not take a final decision on Ukrprombank whatever it may be. We just do not understand what the real situation in the bank ... We see All options, including those that will fully protect all depositors of the bank, if it does not recapitalize, - he emphasized.

According to a source at the bank is likely to be extended a moratorium on the payment of deposits. Current law prohibits entering it on longer, but a law signed by President soothes the ban. Another couple of days leave to return the law to the Parliament and the signing of the Speaker. Then it will be published. In the NBU has already logged an order for extension of stay - he said.

This scenario is confirmed

and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Last Friday, she said that the government has no financial resources to recapitalize Ukrprombank, but is detected with the possibility of providing assistance to its investors over the coming weeks. To Ukrprombank lead to the normal state, should be about 9 billion UAH. Today, the State may not enter into the bank, since this volume has no money, - she said. Most likely the Cabinet will use the proposal of the National Bank to transfer the deposits of Ukrprombank in Oschadbank.

At the same time, noted the prime minister, on the bank Nadra decision could be made this week. In doing so, she made another loud statement. It turned out that the oligarch Dmitry Firtash brought not only money from the bank Nadra, but also from Rodovid Bank. Recall facts surfaced in July, large-scale withdrawal of funds from the Nadra Bank of its former shareholders. Nevertheless, Tymoshenko argues that the conclusion made structures Firtash.

In the case of РодовіÐ´Ð¾Ð¼ prime accused in the word the same. As soon as the crisis around the bank (which has worsened the state) began large-scale abuse. Click to continue »

Closing trades above the level of 105 000 items for a fixed term for the RTS index opening goal - 115 of 100 items

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

levels of resistance and support for today August 4

Term contract for the RTS index of execution in September:

closing bid above the opening goal of 105 000 - 115 100. After possible correction - to 105 000 (96 300).

yesterday evening movement confirms the desire to grow quotations. However, growth is likely to continue in the second half of trading session, perhaps on the evening of the trading session. Probably missed growth will wait until the players enter the market. Ie their actions will help to consolidate, because quite a number of players willing to commit profits because increase with the level of 98 805 was already 10.3%. Movement occurs even without consolidation.

probably have news for traffic reasons. Corporate records a lot. At 16:30 will be on how to set up the American consumer - to buy or accumulate. The growth of private spending pozhzhet lead to a new wave of growth.

According to the RTS index general movement upwards, before the correction will not exceed 5%, and now meet 1,2-1,5% (max).

The level of support for today - 105 000 (100 000).

Level Resistance - 110 500 (113 730).

RTS:

- support for 1034, 1010;

- resistance 1080, 1124.

GAZPROM:

- Support 169.3r.; 165.8r.;

- 171.0r resistance.; 176.4r.

GMKNN:

- Support 3240r.; 3150r.;

- resistance 3350r.; 3430r.

Company:

- Support 1585r.; 1572r ..;

- resistance 1610r.; 1656r.

Rostelekom:

- Support 159.8r.; 156.3r.

- 162.7r resistance.; 173.0r.

Rosneft:

- Support 196.5r.; 196.0r.;

- 201.3r resistance.; 206.6r.

Sberbank on.

- support 43.00r.; 40.30r.;

- 46.80r resistance.; 49.80r.

Sberbank etc.:

- support 27.75r.; 26.73r.;

- 29.70r resistance., r. 32.35.

Surgutneftegas:

- support 24.73r.; 23.78r.

- 25.56r resistance.; 25.85r.

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Kommersant: The future looks savory

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

Yesterday, at the London Mercantile Exchange price of sugar rose to a maximum in the last 20 years the level of - $ 498.7 per tonne. But this is only the beginning, the rise in prices will continue until 2011, which will inevitably lead to a rise on the Ukrainian market, say experts.

According to the agency Bloomberg, the price of October futures contracts for sugar on the London Mercantile Exchange yesterday reached a maximum of 20 years, the value - $ 498.7 per ton, which is 41% higher than in the same day a year earlier.

Quotations of futures on the sugar began to rise in May due to the anticipated deficit, which can cause drought in India. This country is the second largest worldwide exporter and consumer of sugar. According to analysts, in the 2009/10 marketing year, India imported 5 million tons of sugar to 2.7 million tonnes in the current, said Bloomberg. Due to the drought affected crops as sugar cane in Thailand and Mexico, as in Brazil, its fields are flooded due to high rainfall.

In June, analysts have raised the forecast deficit of sugar in the 2009/10 marketing year in the world up to 6 million tonnes in March, he expected to be 2.5 million tonnes, - notes the analyst fund Gaia Capital Advisors Ol'ga Belonozhko.

There is another explanation for the growth of quotations of futures on the sugar. World production of sugar in the future marketing year will be no less than 159.9 million tonnes, while consumption, taking into account the carry-over stocks at 31.9 million tonnes - 159.03 million tonnes, - asserts the Director of the agency AAA Sergei Nalivka .- The growth of prices sugar in the world is speculative and is connected with the activity of hedge funds buying commodity futures, and fueling the biggest traders of panic because of the alleged deficiency. Click to continue »

Course on Forex euro will continue to decline regardless of the outcome of the August session of the ECB

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

Rally for the financial, commodity markets continues, the traditional for the last few years to support the correlation of bullish trend of the euro to the dollar.

Yesterday investment activity in the risk of re-endorsed the U.S. macroeconomic statistics. According to information provided to the market on Monday evening, the cost of construction in the U.S. in June TG increased by 0,3% (m /m) against the revised increased to -0.8% from -0.9% before the value of this index in the previous month. The June index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector, calculated ISM, up 50.8 pt. to 47.0 pt. in the previous month, and thus for the first time since May 2008 indicated an increase in business activity in that sector of the American economy.

In parallel, a number of major global financial analytic structures made bychimi medium-term forecasts of the dynamics of the commodity market, and speaking the day before the former head of the U.S. Federal Reserve A. Greenspan suggested that the U.S. recession is already coming to an end and that the rate of recovery United States economy could surpass the projections of most economists.

Against this background, quotes EUR /USD this morning, quoted at around 1.4250 to around 1.4500 at the close Friday.

Meanwhile, euro area macroeconomic data, released recently, is quite clearly unfavorable for the euro character.

According to data Friday, the index CPI of EMC in July TG decreased up to -0.6% (g /g) compared to -0.1% (g /d) in June 2009 as indicator trends of retail sales in Germany, according to information provided to the operators of FX on Monday, June t . g. was -1.8% (m /m), with its previous value was revised downward to -1.3% versus 0.4% previously.

slight increase, however, also released yesterday showed manufacturing climate index published by Markit Economics. However, despite the recovery in the mark of 46.3 pt. to 42.6 points in the previous month, its importance has continued to reflect the processes associated with the decline in industrial sector of EMC.

Backlog EU countries in economic growth of America in the medium term an increase in favor of USD differences in real interest rates in the EU and the United States, the decline in the profitability of investments in European real sector as compared to the U.S..

It should also be noted that as the recovery of world economy, European banks are likely to intensify the process of clearing the balance. Accordingly, the European governing bodies will be found, including - financial resources to recapitalize the regional lending sector, to support its business activities in the period of structural reforms.

From the perspective of the medium term, the above factors argue in favor of weakening of the euro on FX, regardless of the outcome of the August session of the ECB. Although it may be their effect is already reflected in the outcome of the meeting scheduled for Thursday the European Central Bank.

Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket to the outcome of yesterday's trades on the MICEX amounted to 31.19 and 37.14, respectively, 31.26 and 37.25 rubles. against the bid on Monday morning.

Quotations Russian currency on the international FX again came close to significant levels of resistance. Perhaps in the coming days, reducing the relative value of RUB in the world market will resume, even in a further improvement in the financial markets of Russia.

expected in coming quarters strengthening central financial support to domestic consumption and investment in the environment may have a relatively smooth process of improving the performance of external payment Russia will contribute to the development of this trend.

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