August 4th, 2009

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Antidollarovye sentiment helped investors push quotes European currencies to the peak of this year

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

Yesterday's trading day forex once again characterized by massive sales of low-income rates. Antidollarovye sentiment helped investors push quotes European currencies to the maximum this year.

growth in the stock and commodity markets has once again been driven by expectations of a speedy restoration of the world economy. Strong case for financial optimists were positive data on the production sector, released on Monday in Europe and the United States. The production index of managers on supply chain management Institute USA, in July rose to 48.9, which at paragraph 4.1 above the June value, the current forecast of 46.5.

A similar indicator in the euro area also showed an increase, the index manager of supply for production in July reached a 11-month maximum - 46.3.

But the greatest successes have been recorded in Britain, where the indicator in July for the first time in 14 months to overcome the border in 50 points, reaching values of 50.8, indicating a recovery of activity in the manufacturing sector.

As a result, by the end of the North American session, the British pound came close to the $ 1.70 mark, while the single European currency broke the line at $ 1.44. Click to continue »

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The Russian market has a chance without any problems to get to a repetition of the June peak

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

The Russian stock market continues to rally. Over the past three trading sessions MICEX index gained more than a hundred points (an increase of more than 10%). The turnover on the MICEX index in the last week of July was 15% higher than the average value in the previous week of July. Growth is observed on shares of various industry sector and is not limited to the blue chips. Growing as a second-tier stocks. Index RTS2 for the period from mid-July increased by ~ 13.5%.

However, the portfolio of short-term speculators, trading on the horizon week, is now heavily overburdened. Plus, the gap remained outstanding yesterday. Speculators needed breathing space. While potentially the MICEX index could run up to the first technical objective - 1106 p. (23% case Fibonacci extension).

If the inflow of new money would be significant (yesterday's turnover on the MICEX is the proof), then it is possible that short-term technical reboot portfolios will not have a significant impact on the overall mood of the participants. Otfiksiruemsya and go further. In this case, the market has a chance without any problems to get to a repetition of the June peak. Thus, the first tactical challenge - the level of 1230 section on the MICEX index. And they look.

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At the local site is expected to moderate positive opening

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

In Monday trading session on the Russian stock market ended with a significant increase in the leading index: 4.96% RTS, MICEX 4.33%. The continuation of the rally in the oil market contributed to a strong demand for commodity paper companies. Oil and Gas Sector: Gazprom 4.34%, Lukoil 2.61%, 4.19% Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz 5.07%.

Banking: Savings Bank 9.04%, 3.76% VTB. Sector of non-ferrous metallurgy: MMC NorNikel 4.33%, Polyus Gold 8.58%.

European indexes finished trading confidence rising: the British FTSE100 1.61%, German DAX 1.78%. U.S. indexes also closed in positive territory. Statements by the former head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan that a recession in the United States is coming to an end and that the pace of the country's economic recovery may exceed the forecasts of many experts, supported by bulls. Data on the U.S. index of industrial activity have better expectations, which also contributed to the growth of American indices. Moreover, the added positive news from the market of raw materials: many industrial metals reached a maximum in November last year against the backdrop of positive data from China (the index of managers on deliveries rose in July to an annual maximum, because the renewed domestic demand increased manufacturing activityin the country). The result: DowJones 1.25%, SnP500 1.53%, Nasdaq 1.52%.

Before opening

Asian session shows divergent trends: Japanese Nikkei225 1.06%, Chinese Shanghai Composite -0.24%, the Australian Index All Ordinaries 1.61%. U.S. futures at SnP500 0.01%.

Quotes Ruble are now at around 30.91 (Forex). Oil brand Brent 73.44 (-0.15%). The pair euro /dollar. Traded around 1.44.

Recommendations

expect a moderately positive opening of the domestic sites. American SnP 500 Index managed to gain a higher mark key points in 1000, high oil prices, a positive external background - all this allows you to count on continued growth in the Russian stock market. It should also be noted that the achievement of many indicators of its local maxima (indices in the United States, oil) can be regarded as a reason to commit profits - investors need to take respite. Assume that after the opening of the domestic court will be traded on the levels of the morning, waiting for news from the west, which may influence the outcome of the tenders. Of the domestic investors will be interested in news reporting for the VTB Group 1 quarter of 2009 under IFRS, which will be released at 10.00 Moscow time., A teleconference will be held at 17.00 on reporting results for the period. In any event, the players it makes sense to fix part of the profit, because the probability that the days of the rally is nearing completion. First of all, it refers to securities: Sberbank, Rosneft, Tatneft. Expected data for today: 12:00 Producer Price Index (euro), 16:30 personal income and expenses (United States).

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The Government's decision on the transfer of gas networks Naftogaz Ukrainy razbalansiruet market

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

The Government's decision on the transfer of gas networks under the control of national joint-stock company (NAK) Naftogaz Ukraine does not contain mechanisms for implementation and may adversely affect the reliability of gas supply to Ukrainian consumers during the autumn-winter period, the respondents believe the agency Interfax-Ukraine experts.

According to the director of economic information center energy business Alexei Chernyavski, the decision to transfer networks Naftogaz leaves more questions than answers, in particular, it does not contain any mechanisms for the transmission networks, or deadlines.

Most likely, in the Cabinet and Naftogaz aware that the option to realize the power of selection of property can not be, - considers Chernyavsky.

He recalled that despite the majority of thegas networks of the State, oblgazy major service structures with their maintenance and subscription services, staff, transportation and technical documentation on all lines.

Does the government or Naftogaz resources (not just financial) for the creation of alternative structures in all areas? Obviously the answer is no. Will the owners oblgazov serve networks, if the transport fare will go into the new daughter NJSC? Obviously, that also does not - said the expert.

He also predicts massive lawsuits against the decision of the Cabinet and the new daughter Naftogaz at the beginning of the heating season. Stability in the system that obviously does not add - stressed Chernyavsky.

head of the economic programs of the Center of Systems Analysis and Forecasting Vyacheslav Butko said that the region-and gorgazy are now in a very difficult financial situation. He recalled that in connection with the sharp rise in prices for imported gas and the economic crisis, the volume of transportation of gas to move some businesses declined in 2009, twice, which led to falling revenues oblgazov.

According to him, a significant blow to the gas supply has caused a sharp increase in prices for imported gas is supplied NAK Naftogaz Ukraine for the technological needs oblgazov - from 934.7 to 1757.95 UAH UAH per thousand cubic meters, while maintaining the same tariff for the supply of and distribution.

weighted average tariff for the distribution of natural gas to date is 81.3 UAH per thousand cubic meters, the weighted average tariff for the supply of gas - 34.5 UAH. This is at least 50 below the required UAH, - says Butko, estimating the overall level of underfunding industry in the first half of 2009 to more than 1 billion grn.

expert predicts that the transition of distribution networks under the control of the state does not lead to an increase in tariffs due to the proximity of elections. Click to continue »

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