August 5th, 2009

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Fitch downgraded Industrialbank rating to CCC, affirmed the ratings of Privatbank, the banks' Pivdenny and Khreshchatyk

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

International rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded the long-term issuer default rating (RDE) Industrialbank (Zaporozhye) from the B- to CCC, reported on Wednesday.

According to a forecast by rating - a negative.

The report also indicates that while the Agency has confirmed the long-term RDE PrivatBank (Dnepropetrovsk) at the B, the Bank Khreschatyk (Kiev) and the Bank Pivdenny (Odessa) B-and a national long-term rating Diamantbank B (ukr) .

Outlook on the ratings - negative.

In reviewing the five private banks, with the Ukrainian owners, Fitch took into account the sharp deterioration in asset quality during the first half of 2009 due to devaluation of hryvnia in the fourth quarter of 2008 and a sharp economic downturn, but also takes into account the likely further increase in royalties for depreciation of credit - the report says.

According to Fitch, each of the five dealt with the banks reported a significant increase in problem loans (with a delay of more than 90 days) and /or prolongation and restructuring of loans in the first half of 2009.

Reportedly, these banks may need capital support.

The situation with liquidity remains complex, although the outflow of deposits weakened in the second quarter of 2009 as the sector as a whole and, in the banks (except Industrialbank) after a significant loss in the fourth quarter of 2008 - the first quarter of 2009, - notes the report.

relatively Industrialbank message indicates that the reduction rate associated with a sharp deterioration in the quality of assets in the bank, combined with a high risk of related parties: the level of problem loans finuchrezhdeniya increased from 2.5% of the loan portfolio at the end of 2008 to 7.2% by the end of June 2009, while loans to delay by one day has increased almost twice - up to 21.1%.

At the same time 51% of the loan portfolio accounted for Restructured loans and prolonged.

According to Fitch, the reserves and the capitalization of the bank provide a substantial capacity to absorb losses, but it is still regarded as a moderate, taking into account the degree of impairment of assets. The Agency also notes that the 20 largest contributors to the outcome of June accounted for 42% of all bank liabilities.

The report also notes that confirmation RDE PrivatBank represents a manageable level depreciation credit, risk management, which has a quality above the average for the Ukrainian market, a greater ability to absorb losses on loans (the majority of comparable Ukrainian banks) and limited risks of refinancing.

Ratings also maintained its extensive client base of the bank in the country, significant shares of the market and the potential for future support of liquidity from the controller if necessary. According to the agency, may also support capital from shareholders, but it can not be left in the light of the lack of transparency of the financial situation of the owners.

At the same time, the ratings reflect PrivatBank increasing problem loans reported (8.8% of loans to unconsolidated basis by the end of May, 2009) and prolonged /rescheduled loans (8.5%) and significant concentrations of credit.

The deteriorating quality of assets and a substantial likelihood that require further contributions to the capital, led to a decrease in an individual bank's rating to level D and D /E, - the report says.

At the same time, said agency, by July, 11% of liabilities PrivatBank was formed borrowing from the NBU. Short-term payments on foreign borrowing (mainly trade financing and amortization of securitization transactions) are moderate, and redemption of Eurobonds PrivatBank of $ 500 million is not earlier than 2012 - the report says.

Agency also notes that the problem loans from the bank Pivdenny at the end of the first half of 2009 were still at a low level of 2.5% of the loan portfolio, but this figure reflects a policy of delay finuchrezhdeniya Management: prolonged and Restructured Loans rose to a high level - 33% of the portfolio. Click to continue »

During the day, serious reasons for shopping at the market have been reported, but domestic investors maintained a rising trend

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

The Russian stock market opened the session in the red, which is mainly contributed to the decline of futures on U.S. indices, the negative trend in the Asian sites, in particular, reducing the Chinese index, as well as the proximity of strong technical resistance and lack of reasons for them before the start of Perforation bidding. During the day, serious reasons for shopping at the market have been reported, and published macroeconomic statistics, on the contrary, contributed to sales, but domestic investors have ignored the data and maintain the upward trend.

Data on the number of jobs in the private sector of the U.S. in July were worse than forecasts, which resulted in partial correction. Close to close the trading session, market volatility will increase because of the macroeconomic statistics, which will be published at 18:00 Moscow time. Given the speculative nature of growth, I recommend to go to the cache before the publication of statistics. Decisions on the opening position for tomorrow is to take following the publication of data on oil and oil products in the United States (18:30 Moscow time). In the case of negative data, you can open the short for the purpose for tomorrow morning, as might occur a sharp turn downward in oil prices of the maximum annual level, the more that the volatility in the foreign exchange market increases the probability of rollback cost of raw materials.

session tomorrow will not concede the last two trading days on volatility, and the proximity of the key statistics week may deter market participants from purchasing. In the first half of session, attention is paid to data on factory orders in Germany. The middle of the day will increase the volatility in the foreign exchange market, as expected the Bank of England and ECB decisions on interest rates. Especially interesting are the comments Jean-K.Trishe that traditionally affect the currency market, where the pair EUR /USD traded with a strong resistance in the region of 1.45, which can happen a technical turn down. This will lead to the correction in prices for raw materials.

finish trading session, according to tradition on Thursday, will determine the data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Tomorrow, again the best strategy remains speculative. Medium-term investors late open positions at this overheated market - is to wait for correction.

Medium weighty reasons for the continuation of the rally there. If you look at this growth, it said volumes about his speculative; rebound, to a large extent, takes place at a neutral external background and due to the closure of shorts. Emerging macro-economic statistics indicate a persistent problem in all regions. Thus, the volume of retail sales of euro fell to expectations of growth. The labor market in the U.S. still does not make a sign of stabilization, that is a negative signal, so the Friday report on unemployment could lead to a correction. In early July, it is pessimistic data on unemployment as the reason for selling, and taking into account the current market perekuplennost, repetition of the scenario is likely in July.

Technically, the picture also reminds July, when the MICEX index stood at the bottom boundary of the medium-term ascending channel with an attempt to return to him, after which occurred a technical turn down. During today's session, the index tried to go back to the corridor, followed by an adjustment of the maxima and consolidated at the border, indicating that the volatility of rising momentum.

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Forex - in the European session

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Ksetra Daks (Xetra DAX) has grown by 22.10 points (0.41%) and is at the level of 5439.12. The index of London Stock Exchange Futsi 100 (FTSE 100) rose by 19.17 points (0.41%) and is at the level of 4690.54. September futures on the index S & P 500 (SP 500) at Globekse (Globex) rose by 0.1 point at 1004.8. Opening of the American stock index today is expected to top.

pound /dollar rose in European session to 1.7040, the maximum in October last year. Rate euro /pound fell to 0.8459 marks. Support of the pound had a recent positive economic data in Britain.

rate euro /dollar rose to 1.4434, but still can not be kept at high levels, with minor adjustments.

note that the active investors in the forex market is low. This is linked with expectations of today's publication of important economic data in the United States and the outcome of tomorrow's meetings of the Bank of England and the ECB.

index of business activity in services (PMI services index) in Italy for July 44.5 (previous 42.3). The index of business activity in services (PMI services index) in France for July 45.5 (45.5 forecast, the previous value of 47.2).

index of business activity in services (PMI services index) in Germany for July 48.1 (48.4 forecast, the previous value of 45.2). The index of business activity in services (PMI services index) in Europe (16) July 45.7 (45.6 forecast, the previous value of 44.7). Click to continue »

Umanskii: Ukraine has received funds under the third tranche of IMF credit

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

Ukraine received the third tranche of funds under the loan the IMF stabilization program in stand-by.

It was reported the acting Minister of Finance Igor Umanskii today by the Cabinet of Ministers, transmits the correspondent of RBC-Ukraine. The funds received as early as Friday, July 31, - said Umansky.

Recall July 29, the IMF Executive Board approved the transfer of Ukraine, the third credit tranche in the amount of $ 3.3 billion in the two-year program contingency credit (stand-by) to 16.4 billion U.S. In view of this tranche of the total amount of credit funds allocated to Kiev on a program of the IMF reach 10.9 billion USD

Umanskii As reported earlier, the third tranche of IMF credit would allow Ukraine did not loosen the domestic foreign exchange market, as well as simplify the sterilization of excess liquidity hryvnia. Click to continue »

Analysis - Results of the day

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

Today in the results:

  • Energy and Energy

    Quotations black gold on Wednesday 05 August, showing a positive momentum. At the cost of oil is influenced by several factors, including data from the American Petroleum Institute (American Petroleum Institute, API) and the depreciation of the dollar against the euro to the minimum mark for the year.

    Oil prices on the basis of bidding on Tuesday showed multidirectional movement.

    API: Commercial oil stocks in the United States from 24 to 31 July 2009. declined by 1.5 million barrels.

    transit of gas through Ukraine decreased.

    uranium prices in July fell ... read

  • world stock market

    Stock trades in the United States closed on August 4 this year growth of leading indexes against a background of macroeconomic news. Since market participants are encouraged by the report of the National Association of realtors, report increased the number of outstanding transactions on the secondary sale of the housing stock over the past month, and this optimism is investors' desire peresilil record profits after the market growth over the previous trading sessions.

    Stock trading in Europe ended on August 4, 2009. decline in the leading stock indexes in the background is not very positive corporate news. Several companies reported on their records, which are considered not sufficiently attractive market. Among the losers were almost all the banks and the financial sector.

    Trading on Asian markets on Wednesday opened divergent dynamics. Losses Isuzu Motors Ltd. and Elpida Memory Inc. resulted in lower stock quotations automakers and technology companies. Composite Stock Index MSCI Asia Pacific Asia-Pacific region prosel at 0.1% to 112.89 points.

    trading session in Japan on Wednesday, August 5, lowering the index Nikkei ended at 1.18% to 10,252.53 points. The index of large market Topix is 1% to 949.58 points.

    RTS stock yesterday closed down growth. RTS Index rose 0.61% to 1074.49 points. The total volume of transactions amounted to $ 2 953 543 250.
    Leaders of growth have become shares in OAO Uralkali (5.09%). Click to continue »

Vladimir Putin will discuss the August 6, in Ankara, the project «Southern stream»

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

 
  
 
 
  05.08.09 14:45 ;
  August 6, 2009 President of the Government of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin at the invitation of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Ankara on a working visit, said the Government of the Russian Federation.

According to the media, the main theme of the meeting of Putin and Erdogan are energy issues. In particular, as reported, the two sides will discuss cooperation in gas sphere and the development of the project «Southern stream».

Previously, Turkey had signed an agreement on the pipeline Nabucco, which is considered a competitor of «Southern stream». It is assumed that for Nabucco gas will be supplied to Europe, bypassing Russia.

It was expected that during the visit of Russian prime minister in Turkey would also signed agreements on cooperation in agriculture, science, education, cooperation on customs issues and some others.

4 August it became known that Russia and Turkey have agreed to enhance cooperation in the energy sector. This was told Energy Minister Sergey Shmatko of the meeting with the Minister of Energy of Turkey Taner Yıldız. Click to continue »

In the best performing stocks are Pharmacy network 36.6, add in the price of 13,39%

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

MICEX Index of 13:35 Moscow time on Wednesday rose 1.69% and recovered, thus, at 1 120.76 points.

led growth and the proven performance of capitalization of OAO Pharmacy Chain 36.6 , add in the price of 13.39%. The market continues to otygryvat published late last week informed that the preparation of the restructuring of the bond issue the company, which she had been unable to settle on 30 June TG, apparently close to the final stages of negotiations with the holders of bonds pharmacy chains continue and may culminate in in the near future.

It remains high activity observed in the actions of operators of the Russian electricity companies, to which attention of investors is probably quite high due to improved estimates of the long-term prospects of this industry, including - under the influence of government wage and price policies. However, due to fixation of the players arrived at the trading pattern of individual securities in this sector was mixed. Paper DEK, OGK-5, OGK-6 and Rusgidro this morning went up by 4.35%, 3.92%, 1.88% and 4.96%. On the other hand, shares of OGK-3, OGK-2, in contrast, lost in the first hours of the trading 1.09%, 0.12%, being thus one of the leaders of decline during the period.

Note the current increase in stock car company that develops, despite the information on the number of leading companies in the sector in August, TG production vacation. It seems that in this case the market reacts to news of the beginning of the program of state Russia's manufacturing sector through the mechanism gosgaranty. Against this backdrop, shares of corporations and SOLLERS KamAZ on Wednesday morning, went up by 3.42% and 2.62%.

In general, taking into account the positive dynamics of foreign stock exchanges, the restoration of the price of the commodity sector and on the background of expected investor support for the financial sector by the ECB and the Bank of England meeting, which will be held on Thursday, the general background of the investment in the Russian stock market remains appears to be relatively favorable. The possibility of continuing the growth of quotations in the coming weeks, continues.

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Ministry: The Russian government will not abandon plans to build new capacity and the liberalization of the electricity market, even in the face of crisis

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

August 5, met the Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Sinyugina and Vice Chairman of the Corporation, General Electric, John Kreneki. During the meeting, participants discussed the situation in the country's economy, the functioning of Russian power in terms of financial and economic crisis and future prospects of the sector development.

According to John Kreneki, General Electric is involved in the implementation of investment programs of Russian generating companies and will soon begin to build a factory for production of spare parts and accessories for a full fleet of turbines the company submitted to the Russian power plants. The implementation of new projects will require understanding on the part of foreign investors, prospects of development of Russian power.

Vyacheslav Sinyugin noted that the global economic crisis has significantly impacted on all sectors of the economy, including the changed conditions and the development of electric power. Click to continue »

The group of deputies from BYuT, NU-NS and PR offers to extend for six months, 13% th dopposhlinu on imports

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

extend the temporary additions to the target rates of import duty of 13% of customs value, used in imports of meat, alcoholic beverages and a variety of pharmacies, the MPs suggest the three major factions of Parliament.

The bill

MPs Nicholas Prisyazhnyuka (Party of Regions), Eugene Segal (BYuT) and Andrei Davydenko (Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense) was registered in the Verkhovna Rada and announced the other day.

According to him, it is proposed to amend passed on 4 February this year, the law and set the minimum term the introduction of temporary target bonuses of 12 months, whereas today it is six months.

the list of imported goods made frozen beef, fresh, chilled and frozen pork, meat offal and bacon, sausage, sausage, canned meat, Prepared or preserved fish, crustaceans, eggs, wine, liqueurs, vermouth, and spirits, ethyl alcohol.

In addition, the list also includes coal, carpets, knitted linen, clothes, underwear, shoes and hats, furnaces, boilers, cars and trucks, buses, stoves, gas columns, pumps, fans and hoods , refrigerators and freezers, electric water heaters, appliances Electric. Click to continue »

Recommendations for futures on RTS index today

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

Recommendations for futures on RTS index on Wednesday

Possible scenarios of futures on RTS index in the near future:

Objectives for futures on RTS index when it is falling:

1) Green downward slant line (short-term trend) - 87 000 points in futures on RTS index.

a. 5 - 7 trading days.

Objectives for futures on RTS index, with its growth:

2) The red horizontal line - 116 000 points for the futures on RTS index.

time achieving this goal:

a. 3 - 5 trading days.

3) Blue upward slant line - 110 000 points in futures on RTS index.

time achieving this goal:

a. 1 - 2 trading days.

Recommendations for today:

1) buy in the area of 87 500 points. Stop - loss put at the level of 86 500 points.

2) Sell at the level of Perforation 110 000 points. Stop - loss put at the level of 111 500 points.

Evening session on FORTS 4 August, 2009

At the end of the evening session, futures RIU9 virtually unchanged, while the motion inside the session were quite substantial. The volume of trades at night was about two medium size. Futures showed once again because of the level of 110 000. Someone may even seem a double peak - but not me, although I continue to recommend the opening of short positions of the 110 000 mark, as in the case of double peaks to enter the market will be too late.

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