August 6th, 2009

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At the time of the main battle going on between Russian players and foreign funds

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

Russian Hill

Russia

Indicators locking condition the Russian stock market demonstrated multidirectional closing: RTS index rose by 1,84%, MICEX index dropped 1.63% - as is usually affected by an extra hour duration trading session. The volume of trades on the RTS Stock Exchange was $ 3.29 billion, of which $ 2.0 billion was accounted for by the term market instruments, the MICEX Stock Exchange Section natorgovala at 182.2 billion rubles, the turnover in the index was 83.0 billion rubles.

Evening turn into the Russian stock market attributed to many factors, including declining business activity and rising unemployment in the United States. To my mind the evening of our market has fallen more because, during the day, it rose almost without reason, and when the discharge occurred, Bears have taken a great interest too, and simply have not been able to stop in time. At the time of the main struggle going on between the Russian players who would like to record profits after a six-month growth, and foreign funds, limits on Russia and the capital inflows have increased, and therefore managers need to be somewhere attached money investors.

Europe

Old World Index fell by an average of 0.4%, which could be safely write to the average deviation, if not for the fact that some regional markets have lost a little more - so DAX index dropped 1.2%. In fact, negative emotions fit into the reduction of retail sales in the euro area. In the positive zone of the paper were the financial sector, who feel as if nothing happens and the world financial crisis, as has happened.

America

New World Index fell by 0,3-0,9%, responding to the negative macroeconomic statistics and corporate reports, which turned out to be worse than expectations. Ahead of the world-wide is the financial sector - this is really true to any head, even on his forehead, and any sea on the knee.

raw materials, currency, etc.

Industrial metals at auction in London continued its long rise, gold performs oscillatory motion just below $ 970, U.S. dollar finished the day is neutral.

futures oil brand Brent traded below $ 75, oil futures mark WTI stand just above $ 71.25 (September contracts at 09-30 Moscow time). The price gap between the two reference marks already passes for $ 3 mark, which may be associated with the transition to Brent many speculators (you can make such a conclusion, to observe the growth of trading volume) and the orientation of the Chinese economy at this sort of oil.

Statistics and Reporting

Today, 15-00 (Moscow time), the Bank of England must decide on the interest rate in the 15-45 (Moscow time) to take a similar decision the ECB (in both cases the changes are not expected) to 16-30 (Moscow time) published data the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, at the same time, Jean-Claude Trichet will comment on the decision of his department. In the corporate sector can provide reports Deutsche Telecom, Unilever, and Thomson Reuters.

Outlook

I look forward to opening in the Russian stock market to break up within 1%, due to excessive emotional last night and a neutral external background this morning. I continue to recommend that the focus on oil quotes as a guiding star. At short intervals of time, the dynamics can be completely and not to any analysis, but it is a consequence of emotion and speculation game, which now constitute the entire market, since the fundamental factors persistently ignored. In the medium term as a goal, I look forward to touch 1200 points and the formation of double peaks.

On the more remote prospect, I am of the opinion that the second wave will be all the same. In my understanding should be the catalyst for the next reporting season, coupled with macroeconomic statistics for the third quarter. But much will depend on when the end of the fuel from the helicopter, which scatters Ben Bernanke U.S. dollars.

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Opinion: Ukraine's economy has reached bottom, but the banking system in the country yet the shock

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

Ukraine's economy has reached bottom and in the future are expected to stabilize her condition, but the banking system in September and October, yet the shock of the increase in problem loans, said the director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Igor Burakhovskiy.

It is clear that today the situation in the banking sector is very difficult. We can expect that these problems will worsen ... Apparently, some banks will bankrupt. In this sense, the first such decision has been taken, although it was very difficult - we are talking about Ukrprombank. Unfortunately, we can say that some other banks will share this fate, - he said at a press conference on Wednesday.

head of the institute explained that the increase in problem loans comes under the influence of the decline in economic performance.

However, he said, in 2010 the Ukrainian economy is expected to increase at 3.9%.

Burakhovskiy As noted, the country's steel industry has already appeared some positive signals, while the employment situation is deteriorating.

According to him, Ukraine's involvement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) helps mitigate the impact of the crisis, but these loans are not sufficient to address the complex challenges facing the country.

This expert did not rule out the loss of funding from the IMF for corruption. Given the level of Ukrainian corruption, inefficiency of the Ukrainian state, unfortunately, we are all with you paying corruption tax - he said.

Burakhovskiy expressed hope that Ukraine will be able to get the fourth tranche of funds from the IMF this year, but noted that negotiations with the increasingly complex: a third tranche of the program of stand-by in July, is largely a result of significant efforts by the Government and the Prime Minister.

Every next revision (the program with the IMF) has major problems and is more difficult. And all of the political dominant grows, - he said.

In doing so, the Director of the Institute noted that the threat of non-funding of the IMF has forced the president to cooperate, the government and National Bank.

The expert also expressed the view that the receipt of funds from the IMF in 2010 will depend on the outcome of the elections and the possible configuration of power: the problem with funding may arise if the President, Government and Parliament will again be divided because of political differences. Click to continue »

After the opening of the red zone local area is likely to continue the smooth decline throughout the session

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

In Wednesday trading session at the Russian stock market ended differently: 1.84% RTS, MICEX -1.63%. Published makrostatistika of the United States and a sharp drop in crude oil quotations presented an unpleasant surprise bulls, notice the MICEX index in negative zone. RTS lucky - the closure of the market place in 18.00 in a green area where the next portion of the negative data are not yet available. Oil and Gas Sector: -1.51 Gazprom, Lukoil -1.31% -1.87% Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz 1.29%. The banking sector: Bank -2.37%, -3.03% VTB. Sector of non-ferrous metallurgy: MMC NorNikel -1.61%, Polyus Gold -2.62%.

European indexes finished trading decline: the British FTSE100 -0.52%, German DAX -1.18%. U.S. indices closed in negative territory. The number of jobs in the private sector of the U.S. in July fell to 371.00, after a reduction of 463,000 in June, the index of activity in the services sector fell to 46.4 U.S. point, the growth of commercial oil reserves in the United States for the week amounted to 1.67 million barrels - all of these figures came out worse than expected and had a negative impact on the outcome of the tenders. After the fall at the opening of the American indexes have tried to cannon, but at the end of the session, all attempts to grow have been wiped out. At this week's expected employment data for the U.S. population, which, apparently, no expectations and did not allow investors to count on the continuation of the rally. The result: DowJones -0.42%, SnP500 - 0.29%, Nasdaq -0.91%.

Before opening

Asian session shows mixed trends: Japanese Nikkei225 0.92%, Chinese Shanghai Composite - 3.33%, the Australian Index All Ordinaries 0.58%. U.S. futures at SnP500 -0.4%. Quotes Ruble are now at around 31.11 (Forex). Oil brand Brent 74.87 (-0.85%). The pair euro /dollar. traded around 1.44.

Recommendations

expect a negative opening of the domestic sites. The decline in oil prices, the negative dynamics of futures for U.S. indices, published prior to the negative macroeconomic statistics from the United States do not allow to count on growth. After opening in the red zone of the domestic sites are likely to continue the smooth decline throughout the session, based on quotes u1085 oil and western Indexes. Output current evidence is likely to be able to determine the outcome of trades, but rely on the continuation of the rally is hardly worth it. Good News on the rates in the EU and the UK, as well as the labor market in the United States do not have to wait. Therefore we advise investors to accumulate the cache, and to refrain from action in the market. It should be noted that it was better the other sectors will likely look at bank: on the background of positive data from the financial sector in the United States. Imprint profit is primarily in securities Surgutneftegaz, MMC NorNikelya, Gazpromnefti.

Expected data for today: 15:00 the decision on rates, the Bank of England (United Kingdom), 15:45 a decision on rates, the ECB (euro), 16:30 applications for unemployment benefits (United States).

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Analytical review of the Forex market for the August 5

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

Despite the relatively positive output economic news, the major currency pairs on Wednesday continued their movement in the previously identified bands. For example, it became known that a change in industrial production in the UK for the year was 0.5%, while the predicted 0%, according to data from ADP, the number of unemployed in the United States increased by 371 thousand people. This indicator has shown a positive momentum in anticipation of the release on Friday of data on changes in the number of employees in non-agricultural sector of theU.S. economy, can not encouraging market participants. Despite the absence of sharp movements in the market on Wednesday and the euro and the pound managed to update several records against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the maximum of the pair euro /dollar was 1.4446, the pair Pound /dollar - 1.7041. The pair dollar /yen has continued movement in the channel 94,50-95,50.

forecast Thursday, August 6

Sunday promises to be very interesting from the viewpoint of the publication of economic data. Click to continue »