Main volatility will have on the end of the session
The last trading session demonstrated the high volatility associated with changes in mood as in futures on U.S. indices, as well as black gold. At the end of the trading the MICEX index closed symbolically black, adding 0.72%. Under the veil of trade of the day rolled serious fixing the profit that was attributable to bear sentiment on the U.S. site, and commodity markets.
After the end of the trading in the Russian market has worsened the external background, that will provoke a small Drawdown at the beginning of the session. U.S. futures indexes traded lower from the levels at which the day before they left the domestic market. Futures on the SP 500 index traded below 1000 points in a narrow range of 992.5 - 995 points. The value of black gold declines - Oil futures traded near Brent brand marks $ 74.5 per barrel. After a decline at the opening can be formed by the lateral trend in anticipation of the publication of data on the labor market in the United States (16:30 Moscow time).
At 12:30 Moscow time will be announced production price index of the UK, which can slightly adjust the course of the trading, but market participants are unlikely to begin to act up to the key of the week - a report on the labor market for July. Yesterday's nervousness persists today, investors can play a fairly active on the labor market. In my opinion, before the publication of statistics should refrain from making investment decisions. Preliminary data on the labor market for July, which were announced in the middle of this week, have worse prognosis, indicating a possible publication of negative data today. As expected, the unemployment rate will rise to 9.6%, ie 0.1% compared to last month. The indicator on the number of jobs outside of agriculture is also expected to have a negative impact on the market, since it is expected further job cuts. Data on the labor market will reflect the actual future demand, which will affect the economy as a whole.
closing the American market was in the negative zone. Dow Jones lost about 0.27% and the SP 500 - 0.56%. The main reason sales have pessimistic expectations of the labor market, which will be announced before the opening of the U.S. market. His contributions have made, and revised recommendations.
At the opening of the domestic market and affect the dynamics of the Asian areas, where there is a reduction of the background of the results of the trading day in the United States.
Technically, the index of the MICEX today caught the level of support to 1083.6 points (61.8% th Fibonacci correction on), and 1090 points of resistance (resistance line passing through historical and annual maximums). External background contributes to testing the level of support and of Perforation. The next support is likely to make mark 1056 points - 38.2% The first correction of the historical maxima. The outcome will determine the session data for the labor market, which provoke either of Perforation of 1100 points, which further facilitate the continuation of bovine rally, or care to the 1056 points mark, which mark the beginning of correction.
Shares traded oil and gas near the resistance, which otoydut today in the first half of the session. In the case of deterioration of the external background paper Gazprom risk down to a level of 165 rubles., And shares of Rosneft - point to 188.7 rubles. (50% correct on the first of the Fibonacci series of annual maxima).
Shares of banking sector also may be subject to sale. The opening can be tested levels of 45 rubles. and 4 cop. by Sberbank and VTB, respectively. In the case of the publication of positive data on unemployment of paper banking sector may show a stronger growth, because technically the action look more attractive.
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