Our assumptions about the growth in the U.S. very soon (see review, 07.08.09) met. Yesterday, the course of American currency has risen more than on the ruble. With regard to the future dynamics of the course: After the correction, we look forward to continuing the upward movement. As written earlier, before the end of the year we plan to see the U.S. currency at the rate of 35 rubles. Moreover, the Central Bank does not exclude such a possibility, and sees no serious risk in a reduction of the Russian currency.

As for the long term (1-2 years), the further weakening of the ruble is unlikely. And here is why. Full replacement of hydrocarbon fuels in the world has not yet been found. And as you know, its stocks are not growing, but gradually declining. That is for oil prices continues to remain relevant long-term upward trend. Therefore, after the end of the current world crisis (and sooner or later it will end) - and start a new cycle of world economic growth, demand for commodities from the industrialized countries to recover, and after that - to restore economic growth and of Russia's economy in connection with the new revenue petrodollars. Accordingly, the Russian currency will strengthen.

With regard to the current market situation today, expect a neutral-negative bid opening on the Russian stock market. Level of support is now 1000p. RTS index.

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Yesterday

Tuesday on the Russian stock market started selling. Another morning, all seemed quite optimistic, but closer to the dinner the mood of investors marked the beginning of the port. Toward the evening of the morning's optimism is not left a trace, and after data on the labor market in the U.S. domestic equities sprinkle quite seriously. Frankly yesterday looked worse than the market of Gazprom securities, which are willing to sell information about a possible escalation of gas war with Ukraine. Papers gas monopoly lost more than 3%. But the paper in front of the SavingsBank, looked quite strong, especially in the morning and stubbornly did not want to fall. Interestingly, the paper Sberbank managed to keep in spite of the devaluation of the ruble. The reason for the weakness of the Russian stock market was the negative dynamics of futures for U.S. indices, as well as the rapid weakening of the ruble last days. It should be noted that, as long as investors reacted quite calmly to events in the foreign exchange market. Do not add optimism to the situation in the oil market. Quotations WTI fell below $ 70 a barrel. Trading volume suggests that it is a bit early to talk about-turn and even a deep correction. Thus, the MICEX index fell by 2.9% - up to 1069.31 points, RTS index - on 2,95%, to 1033.72 points. Trading volume on MICEX amounted to 62.182 billion rubles., RTAs - 5.268 million

However, we note that the RTS index has approached close enough to the 1000 points mark, and it is possible to make the bear attack on that point today.

U.S. market

The mood of investors in the United States deteriorated against the backdrop of the output statistics of the labor market, as well as the negative recommendations on shares of some companies. The price of shares the largest bond insurer MBIA Inc fell by 13% - to $ 5.39. Recommendations for securities of this company have deteriorated to below market from neutral economists JPMorgan, noting the doubts as revenues, as well as its possible losses. Stock Quotes Bank of America Corp. fell by 5% - to $ 15.85. The value of securities Wells Fargo Co. decreased by 6.1% - to $ 26.89, against the backdrop of negative predictions of analysts on the profits of banks.

Recommendations for shares Yum! Brands, the world's largest operator of restaurants, experts have been downgraded UBS AG to neutral from buy. The value of securities companies fell to 3.8% - to $ 35.13.

The results of 450 companies from the SP 500 index, published reports over the past quarter after June 17, exceeded the forecasts of experts at an average of 10%.

According to the United States Department of Labor, labor productivity in the country grew in the second quarter of 2009 to 6,4% in annual terms, that was the highest jump in six years. At the same time reducing labor costs in the last quarter was 5.8%, becoming a record in eight years. It is a serious drop in labor costs, in our opinion a negative factor. Looking at yesterday's data, you can doubt that the situation in the U.S. labor market is beginning to correct.

At the end of trading session of a broad market index SP 500 dropped below 1000 points. If today the U.S. Federal Reserve is not prepodneset no pleasant surprises, the decline may continue.

Oil

On the oil market is also becoming more and more cool. The negative mood on the oil market had sales that gripped financial grounds. The drop was observed in both Europe and the United States. Before the oil brand Brent fell by 1.28%, to $ 72.47 a barrel. Investors are rushing record profits for oil Futures in anticipation of the output data from the U.S. Department of Energy. Analysts expect growth stocks of crude oil by 1.2 million barrels decline in gasoline stocks to 1.7 million

Asia

Asian markets falling in the morning. Following the publication of weak accountability of companies, investors returned to the idea that stocks in Asia-Pacific region too went in the 5-month growth of prices.

largest manufacturer of trucks, pickups in China's Great Wall Motor Co announced a reduction of net profit for the first half by 36%. Leading Australian company housing Stockland has recorded a net loss on the basis of the fiscal year. Composite Stock Index MSCI Asia Pacific region dropped from the opening bid at the 1% - to 111.65 points. Japanese Nikkei fell by 1.2%, Hong Kong Hang Seng - at 1.9%.

Today

External background before opening the bidding in Russia is weak:

- The U.S. futures closed in the red.

- Quotations falling oil, WTI below $ 70.

- U.S. futures indices are unable to demonstrate in morning trading, even a weak correction.

- Ruble is under serious pressure.

- Asian sites are traded on the negative territory.

In this situation, investors are best kept out of position or hold shorts. Likely test RTS index marks 1000 points. Of how the events will develop at the turn of this will depend on further movement of the market.

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On Tuesday, the domestic stock market experienced increased volatility. The indices have closed in the negative range, fallen under the pressure of oil prices and the weakening of the ruble: RTS (-2.95%), MICEX (-2.89%).

The sharp fall in oil prices sparked sales in the shares of oil and gas companies: Gazprom (-3,3%), Rosneft (-4,4%), Lukoil (-3.0%). Paper desheveli predominantly domestic banks in the market trends: Sberbank (-2.2%), VTB (-1,2%). Shares of steel companies closed raznonapravleno: CMI (0.3%), NLMK (-2.1%), Severstal (-1.7%).

Tuesday on the American stock market once again dominated by the negative sentiment, Dow Jones index fell by 1%. The leaders began to drop shares of financial companies against the backdrop of fears of continuing write-offs in the sector. Asian indexes today also show negative trends, worse than the market against the backdrop of falling prices on commodity exchanges are commodity paper companies. The significant strengthening of the dollar triggered a sharp decline in oil prices. Barrel of oil brand Brent worth $ 72.3.

According to our estimates, this morning's negative background for the Russian stock market. Shares of oil and gas sector are likely to be under pressure from oil prices fell. A significant reduction in the capitalization of American financial companies can have a negative impact on stock quotes of domestic banks. Better the market today may look like paper gold-mining companies, due to rising prices for gold. Today will be published data on oil reserves in the United States, which could influence the oil market. Even after the closure of bidding will be known to the U.S. Fed decision on the basic interest rate, the market expects the rate will remain unchanged.

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