negative statistics to the declarations B. Bernanke

This session - a bright example of market sentiment. Their anxiety and uncertainty over future market dynamics have contributed to the opening of the Russian market with gepom up, which did not conform to the established external background. After a bright opening in the Russian market were quite bezydeyno in the lateral trend. Futures on the S P500 index of the growing slowly, but the dynamics of the tool only support the market without causing a record profit.

At 13:00 Moscow time were announced preliminary data on GDP for the euro II block, which were significantly better than forecasts. However, data on GDP are not speculative otygryvalis market participants, which again was associated with the levels at which trading took place. On the foreign exchange market data were also ignored.

In the publishing unit statdannyh on the U.S. economy at 16.30 Moscow time. quotes a bit younger, and index futures on the S P500 tested 1015 points, where an abrupt jump down: published data were significantly below projections. Retail sales decreased by 0.1% against the expected growth at 0.8%, excluding automobiles, the indicator fell by 0.6% against the forecast in (0.1%). Data on import and export prices also are not pleased the market, as their synchronous decline represents a decrease of consumption. Data on unemployment were also negative color: the number of applications has proven to 9 thousand worse prognosis. Figures for last week were also revised, exacerbating global negative. Publication data MICEX index dropped below 1100 points. At the end of the session on the pending announcement of the next of sales and continued had a nervous nature. Futures on the S P500 index Breaks down easily to 1000 boxes of items that could not remain without attention of the Russian market.

statdannyh Block affected not only the world's stock markets, but also on the foreign exchange market, where the U.S. dollar, already oslabshy surrender position. For example, a pair of EURO /USD crossed the 1.43 mark. Reducing the dollar has contributed to the growth in oil futures, which tested the level of $ 74.6 per barrel. But oil is not kept at levels that strengthen the Russian ruble and the demand for ADR shares of Russian issuers. However, open positions at this strait risky, since the mood in the U.S. market are changing rapidly, investors have not yet decided on future trends. An important factor that will affect tomorrow at the opening will be a dynamic futures index S P500, namely, whether the tool against the backdrop of a weak data to keep the level of 1000 points, and whether yesterday's statements by B. Bernanke partially reverse statdannye data.

Technically MICEX index has continued to consolidate in the characteristic of the last time for him between 1084 - 1120 points. Lower boundary is 61.8% correction on th Fibonacci of annual maxima.

session tomorrow will be quite busy. In addition to traditional factors on the course Friday trades affect consumer inflation and industrial production of the United States. In anticipation of the publication is better to go into the cache, since the recent reaction to the statistics is rather rough, and the statdannye malopredskazuemy. According to expectations, the consumer price index would remain unchanged, which contributes to the preservation of the Fed rate at a low level and the continuation of programs to stimulate the economy. The rate of industrial production was expected to grow at 0.2%, which will positively market participants. Also onthe course of the trading can affect the mood of the index data from the University of Michigan, who is projected to facilitate purchases.

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Today in the results:

• Energy and Energy

  futures black gold on the trading session on Thursday, August 13, anchored in the green zone. Investors otygryvayut yesterday's Fed statement that a recession is on the decline.

  Oil, on the basis of trading session Wednesday went on auction in New York.

  Minenergetiki United States: Oil reserves in the country from 1 to 7 August 2009. increased by 2.5 million barrels. - Up to 352 million barrels.

  uranium prices are rising. Because of the renaissance of nuclear power ... more

• world stock market

  As a result of trades on 12 August the main U.S. indices closed in green zone.

  Stock trading in Europe ended on August 12, the growth of the leading indices in anticipation of the decision of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), the U.S. discount rate. Expectations of new comments as the U.S. economy raised quotes European banks, and supported the positive trend of certain corporate records.

  Asian stock markets on Thursday showing the growth against the backdrop of weakening the yen, the positive outcome of the trading in the United States on Wednesday, as well as rising prices for raw materials.
  The index of Asia-Pacific MSCI APEX 50 at this time has added 2,02% - 13,85 points.

  trading session ended in Japan on Thursday 13 August at the Nikkei index rising 0.79% to 10,517.19 points. The index of large market Topix rose 0.9% to 968.41 points.

  As a result of trades on 12 August RTS index to closing of the previous session, fell by 8.6 points (0.83%) and amounted to 1025.12 points.
  The turnover of trades on the RTS classic market totaled $ 6.397 million, which is about average for the last month.
  Trading on Russian stock market ended differently

  At the end of the trading the MICEX index rose by 14.48 points (1.35%) to close the previous session and was 1083.79. Click to continue »

Eurobond market

Fed policy has not changed, appetite for risk is returned

The main event yesterday, of course, was the end of the meeting of the Federal Reserve open market and the publication of the final press release. In general, there were no surprises:

• as we expected, was slightly improved assessment of the current situation in the economy;

• inflation risks, according to officials, while low: rising prices of essential commodities offset nedozagruzhennostyu capacity, high unemployment and stagnant incomes;

• Thus, in the medium term ( extended period) monetary policy will remain supportive;

• quantify the amount of mitigation programs has remained constant. The only thing the Fed will lower rates of some redemption of Treasury securities, to stretch planned for this purpose to $ 300 billion by the end of October.

In terms of macroeconomic statistics in the United States yesterday released a good record in foreign trade. For example, in June negative balance of trade grew to 27 billion dollars (1 billion). Imports increased solely due to an increase in energy prices. Excluding this component of the deficit continues to shrink. Also published yesterday on the budget deficit figures were within expectations. At the same time, Europe has a weak report on industrial production.

on world markets yesterday issued a very volatile day. However, as a result, the demand for risky assets back, resulting in indices of stocks in Europe and the United States increased by about 1-1.5%. Quotations US Treasuries, by contrast, went down: The yield of the 10-year note rose to 3.72% (5bp). By the way, increasing returns of Treasury securities contributed to the outcome of the auction and homely accommodation, just 10-year UST at 23 billion dollars

Emerging markets

In the camp of the Emerging Markets Eurobonds specific changes yesterday did not happen: EMBI spread was at 362bp. Quotations of Russian Release RUSSIA30 (YTM 7.49%) fluctuated within the range of 99 7 /16 - 100 1 /6. Trading activity was not very high. In the corporate sector is interesting, we did not notice.

Cash and secondary market

bivalyutnoy cost of a basket yesterday reached 39 rubles, but by the end of the day the ruble strengthened slightly (38.50 rubles). Given the growing recent tensions around the theme of the devaluation of the ruble, it is not surprising that such a rate volatility had a negative impact on the debt market. In the first half of the day quotes of many bonds of 1-st level decreased by about 50bp, however, after some time began to appear bidy, so to some extent, the losses were offset by the morning. Also, the focus yesterday was the story around MOITK.

In the last 24 hours' appetite for risk in a world substantially recovered, that is not slowing effect on the price of black gold (Brent barrel mark again is almost 74 dollars). Thus, today, we think ruble bonds in many (if not completely) offset the losses incurred yesterday. Also, in our view, it would be logical to expect the ruble, but the experience of recent weeks suggests that this may not happen and ...

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Under 'Market bonds, you can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trades on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market.

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status quo is maintained

Trading on Russian stock market on Wednesday looked like a mirror reflection of the trading day before: a negative trend in the first half of the day at the end of auction replaced the sharp turn, facilitated the return of oil prices and world stock markets in the levels of the early weeks. Better market looked the main power chips - FGC, RusGidro and InterRAO.

published last night the decision of the Fed is not taught special surprises. While noting some positive developments in the financial markets, the Fed, however, left a key rate to near zero level, again indicating that it will stay there for a long time. The regulator did not increase the previously approved amount of purchase treasuries by $ 300 million, instead of prolonging this period of time of the redemption (the program is to be completed in October, not in September, pp. D.).

Decision Fed actually is status quo for the financial markets, the situation in which, apparently quite satisfied with the regulator. Increase the dose, ie the amount of repurchase of treasury bonds and mortgage securities, the Fed is likely to be only in the event of a sharp deterioration in the financial markets at the time of the next meeting on 23 September. But so far no signs of this deterioration is not visible - the markets are still very optimistic to assess developments in the global economy changes and are, rather, to further growth.

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