On Monday bear would be preferable to

On Friday, U.S. stock indexes finished trading decline following the publication of reports on consumer inflation and industrial production. Belief in the fast emerging from a recession were to confirm the good data on consumer confidence in the United States. However, in August of this important indicator showed an unexpected decline (from 63.2 after 66.0 in July and 70.8 in June). On Friday investors also do not like weak reports retailers. As a result, we got not only the reduction of stock indexes, but also a fall in prices on commodity markets, and strengthening the defense of such rate of exchange as the dollar and the yen.

Today's trading on Asian markets are in strong reduction of stock indexes. They lost an average of more than 2%. Do not comforted investors weaker than expected GDP data for Japan for 2 square. (0.9% k /k, the forecast 1.0%). The biggest loss today again have stock indices of China (Shanghai Comp -3,8%). Investors withdraw funds from the stock market against the backdrop of the continuing decline in foreign direct investment in the Chinese economy. On Monday, the cost of the October oil contracts fell to the minimum marks for the last 2 weeks: Brent $ 70,9 /bbl, more than $ 1/deshevle levels on Friday evening. Quotes of gold ($ 943/unts) this morning also traded for almost $ 15 cheaper than Friday values.

Today's opening of tenders in the Russian stock market will be seen from 2-3% gepom downstream liquid securities. You may expect a short upward motion, as a consequence of the closure of the players of their short positions open day. In general, bear in early trading this week would be preferable. This contributed to a number of strong factors such as falling on the U.S. futures indices (SP -0,92%), declining oil prices (Brent -0,63%), as well as the weakening of the ruble to the dollar. Worse than the market will be traded shares of the oil, banking and steel sectors.

Given that this afternoon did not go any major macroeconomic data day wait lateral trend of lower levels Friday at 2-4% on the MICEX index and 3-5% for the RTS index. In the forward to the June 13-00 on the trade balance of the euro, and in studying the August 16-30 on the index of business activity in the area FRB of New York (for the prev. Period: -0,55).

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As the whole economy, the Ukrainian banking system remains in a state of permanent stress. While the liquidity situation is gradually beginning to improve, growing non-payments on loans, sky-high amounts of losses and the threat of new frankly populist initiatives of Parliament did not allow bankers to sleep peacefully.

According to the latest figures published by the NBU with considerable delay, in July, deposits in the banking system increased by 2.2 billion UAH. Thus, starting from April, when the renewed inflow of deposits, the growth reached almost 10 billion UAH. (5.1%). However, against a background of expectations of population growth devalvatsionnyh deposits in UAH in July decreased by 1.5% compared to June, while deposits in foreign currency - rose by 3.1% (in dollar terms).

At the same time, deposits yurlits continue to steadily decline (in July - to 1,3 billion UAH., and the total outflow in January-July amounted to 25,8 bln., or 18%). Company doedayut their holdings to finance ongoing activities.

Although apparently all is not so bad: yurlits loans in local currency - this is the only segment of the credit market, where a positive trend. The volume of such loans over the past seven months grew by 12%. But it hardly reflects credit on the renewal of activity: the lion's share of loans issued by state bank loans to state enterprises account for ( Naftogaz, coal companies, aircraft companies) through the issue of resources NBU.

Total bank loans in July, almost unchanged, and since the beginning of the year, banks have reduced loan portfolio to 2.6%. Virtually all finuchrezhdeniya stop lending to the population, resulting in a credit for natural persons in January-July of this year decreased by 10%.

Recently, increasingly heard in the address of bank charges that they do not lend to the real economy, in spite of the considerable excess liquidity. Indeed, at the end of July, the total amount of funds on correspondent banks in the National Bank of Ukraine was 24,6 billion UAH., More than twice the level of reserves (11.6 bln.). However, liquidity - are not the only factor influencing decisions about granting loans. More importantly, asset quality and the main indicators of the economy (GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate). So long as the volume of non-payment of loans granted has continued to grow, and devalvatsionnye expectations - to rise, expect a full-scale resumption of lending difficult.

Yes, and the liquidity situation was still uncertain. In recent months, the main inflow of deposits accounted for by short-term (up to six months) deposits. Therefore, even a slight worsening in the economic or the political sphere can be the detonator, which would lead to another wave of flight of deposits.

However, the situation in Ukraine is not unique. Click to continue »