The Russian stock market began its correction, which was quite expected. Following Monday MICEX index lost 3.5% and the RTS - 5.1%. Now I will try to suggest what we expect from the market in the near future - as will be correct and what is its purpose.

Please note that the MICEX on Monday closed below the 21-day average, at around 1035 points. This negative moment, but trading volume was far too modest to talk about the unconditional of Perforation. Today may be an attempt to reverse the top of Perforation.

In general Tuesday we met quite a strong negative. States have closed in deep red, however, as well as Asia, where China's stock indices have lost up to 6%. S P500 fell by 2.43% (and closed below the 21-day average), DJ fell by 2% and the NASDAQ - at 2.9%. Heavy losses suffered by industries such as banks (-4.3%), oil (-3.2%) and raw materials (-4.5%). Worth noting the fall of quotations such companies as Alcoa (-6,5%), JP Morgan (-4,1%), Wells Fargo (-5,2%) and Bank of America (-4,8%). Accordingly, in the short term, outsiders among blue chips on the Russian market are likely to be paper MMC Nornikel and banks. In the red zone pozakryvalis Russian paper in the western areas.

However, on Tuesday unlikely we will see a strong decline since the market will probably need some consolidation before further decline. In addition, the MICEX index dnevkah crossed the lower boundary band Bollindzhera that spoke of the excessive daytime decrease and a small rebound upwards. Thus, the more likely we'll see divergent dynamics of different stocks and the market as a whole will be traded around the zero mark or slightly above.

And further this week, I do not rule out the continuation of sales in the continuation of a downward correction. Here the main issue is to define its purpose. Unfortunately, it is hardly possible to give an accurate forecast. Based on the Fibonacci correction levels of growth in July-August, you can expect rollback to 1025, 992 and 960 points (38.2%, 50% and 61.8% respectively). Support for the market can get to an important point in the 1000 points, where the same is located 21-week average. An important horizontal level is located at 850 stations on the MICEX.

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We are looking forward to the growth of our index on day 1,5-2%

On Monday, U.S. stock indices closed with the strongest one-day decline for the last month, losing an average of 2% to 2.75%. S P500 index reached a minimum value for more than six weeks. Thus, the wave correction yesterday covered the U.S. market after a long summer rally. As a result of bankruptcy of Bank of Alabama Colonial BancGroup Index SP Banks fell to 5.13%. Very revealing is the upcoming trading session in the state. If today we see it fall, it will be possible to talk about forming a good downward trend in stock exchanges.

momentum stocks in Asia today is not a unified movement dynamics. Here is the opening bid gepom down stock indicators seeking to enter in the plus zone. Oil prices have strengthened their value is almost a dollar from the evening through the strengthening of the euro against the dollar (1.4120) due to expectations of increasing the index of business expectations in Germany in August.

The opening bid on our stock exchanges on Tuesday we will see moderate growth in the area of prices. The rise of quotations will contribute to two factors: the rising futures on U.S. indices (SP 0,45%), as well as continuing with the morning rise in oil prices (Brent $ 70,54 /bbl). Additional bonuses for growth is to strengthen the rate of the ruble to the dollar. Thus, oil companies and banks - outsiders yesterday, today will be able to partly compensate for its recent losses. You should not expect a lengthy recovery, but the chance to see our market in the evening at 1,5-2,0% higher today.

a strong influence on the currency market today will have data from Germany (13-00 Moscow time) on an index of economic expectations and the ZEW sentiment for August (estimate: 45.0). In the July 16-30 waiting for data from the United States by number of new buildings (estimate: 0,598 million) and building permits (estimate: 0.576 million). At the same time, went in July on the U.S. producer price index (forecast: -0.2% m /m -5.8% y /y).

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In his message to Viktor Yushchenko, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, inter alia, criticized the Ukrainian authorities of violating the property rights of Russian investors in Ukraine. By the way similar claims to Ukrainian Prime Minister in April the head of the Russian government has expressed Vladimir Putin. So, the Russian capital feels slighted in Ukraine? Or trying to show that feels ... but given the magnitude of its presence and influence, ignoring the interests of his official Kiev is no longer able.

Ukrainian government, opening the economy to foreign investors, a fundamental error. Like other Eastern European countries, it has not been able to keep a balance between the presence in the country at national, Western and Russian capital. True if the CEE countries have opened wide the door to Western multinational corporations (TNCs), Ukraine is more loyal attitude to the Russian investors.

On the one hand, they are making some positive contribution to the increase of investment activity, GDP growth, increasing revenue and improving employment. With an arch - the hallmark of Russian capital is a high level of politicization, as compared with the capital of other countries. In this regard, the transition of certain sectors of the economy under its control has formed a number of objective risks and challenges for the economic security of the country, of which today we can observe.

Ukraine, as well as all post-Soviet space is a priority for the expansion of Russian capital. This vector is due to both the Kremlin's political objectives, as well as purely economic interests of Russian business in Ukraine.

What started the Russian business in Ukraine: neftyanka, engineering, telecommunications ...

on the territory of Ukraine Russian capital emerged in the mid 1990's, barely able to strong at home. Moreover, some Russian businessmen come to Ukraine without anything, but with constraints and the desire to earn money in the chaotic privatization of those years. In the first phase of this process occurs randomly and haphazardly. Russian investors have had no clear direction and goals, and collected everything that fall under the arm.Only in the last decade, starting a certain subordination of the priorities of the Russian capital, that apparently was related to the establishment of a clear control over the process by the authorities.

First Ukrainian area, which was pronounced the subject of expansion of Russian capital, was the oil industry. In the period 1998-2001. Russian investors to gain control over the three largest Ukrainian oil refineries (refinery) - Lisichansk, Kherson and Odessa. Another - Kremenchug - passed into the ownership of Russian investors have in 1994 By comparison, the total designed capacity of the remaining two domestic refineries is 20 times less than four Russian.

In total, the Russian capital in 2001-2006. supervised more than 90% of design capacity of the Ukrainian oil refining, 85% oil and 70% of the retail market. Only after a change in ownership at the Kherson Kremenchug oil refinery and the proportion of Russian capital in the petroleum refining industry has fallen to 40%. However, given that Ukraine has not diversified the supply of raw material for refineries, dependence on Russian oil is still critical. The dominant role of the Russian capital led to abuses in the market of petroleum products, which are manifested in the monopolization of markets and regular gasoline crisis, of which we are now clearly visible.

addition to the oil industry in 1998-2002. Russian investors have shown an active interest in the Ukrainian media. The fact that the shareholders of the largest companies in this area were the Russian oil TNCs (ie by the time they settled in the Ukraine), shows that there is political subsoil economic expansion during this period. Interest in the media lasted long, and then began to ebb. This is likely to be associated with a general rethinking of Russian information policy in Ukraine. In particular, today the function of the voice of Russian interests are effectively implementing the Ukrainian partners who own the major national media.

in 2001-2004. Ukraine began the expansion of Russian capital a new wave. The interests of Russian business people are displaced in the direction of mechanical engineering, electricity and information technology. Obviously, this is due to the fact that during this period of political factors are beginning to lose its priority effects, but the main motivation for the infiltration of Russians in Ukraine is connected with the creation of transnational integrated production chains, expanding markets, regional and sectoral diversification of business. This is confirmed by the sharp increase of Russian investments in Ukrainian economy, which during this time period grew nearly three times than in the previous ten years.

During this period, Russia's capital is almost entirely consumed the aluminum industry of Ukraine, managed to take root in the mining industry, entered the largest sites of Ukrainian transport engineering, began to harness the country's electricity and gas infrastructure, has acquired a number of strategic assets in the telecommunications field.

Russia in the Orange economy: shipbuilding, MMC, finance ...

new qualitative stage of the Russian expansion began after the Orange Revolution. Yushchenko is trying to show some loyalty to the Kremlin (in the Ukrainian presidential election of 2004 was considered a henchman Kremlin Viktor Yanukovich, and after his scandalous lose the election Ukraine delicately Russia made it clear that sharahatsya of the new government should not be) refused to re-businesses owners who were Russian shareholders, despite the fact that some companies have moved into their property to the flagrant violations of Ukrainian legislation.

in 2005-2009. parallel to the penetration into new niches of the economy is a clear priority vectors of expansion. If the earlier Russian investors tried to consolidate control over the wholearea, it is now - only on large objects. The Russian capital to effectively integrate them into their transnational companies, or use when playing closed cycles of the Soviet period, however, taking into consideration the political authorities to request that through control of strategic points of the economy is able to pursue their interests. Click to continue »

Shares of oil and gas sector at the start to support rebound in oil quotes

the eve of the Russian stock market is seriously prosel as on the background of accumulated external negative and against the backdrop of negative domestic news, the accident at the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power station, which led to the sale of shares in Russian energy sector as the local market and to western areas, as well ADRs for shares RusGidro declined by more than 15%.

Following the closure of our situation on the external sites are not significantly changed. U.S. indices closed the session near the levels at which they left the Russian stock market, futures on U.S. indices traded in a symbolic plus. At the Asian sites, most indices of cannon morning minima. Worse again is Chinese SSEC, falling more than a percentage. A positive factor in the starting bid is the percentage rebound in oil quotes after the closure of both Oil brand Brent back to a level above $ 70 a barrel. Opening the market is seen close to neutral levels yesterday's closing session. Factor yesterday pereprodannosti and stabilize the situation on the external surface may lead to a wave of speculative purchases, which is used to fix the profit. Rebound in the morning may also be the closing shorts.

dynamics within days will be determined by the situation on foreign markets, and ADRs interesting dynamics in terms of attractiveness for non-residents, as the internal negative events traditionally led to the withdrawal of funds from non-residents, which could adversely affect the dynamics of the local market. In the middle of the day indexes will move in the outset, before statistics on the U.S. housing market, namely the start of construction and building permits. Positive data could lead to a wave of purchases in the opposite case, a correction in the market continues, the more, the sample, strong levels of support, most indices had opened themselves to the potential for further downward movement.

major U.S. indices to the outcome of yesterday's session, fell more than 2%. The fall on Monday has affected most sectors of the shares, regardless of the level of capitalization companies. The main reason for the sales have been negative signals from almost all regions of the world, particularly from China about a possible decline in imports of raw materials in the second half, which has the greatest pressure on the equities of commodity companies, which declined after the sharp collapse in prices for industrial metals.

Shares of Russian oil and gas sector at the start of trading session may become one of the favorites by using the rebound in crude oil quotations. Part of the lack of willingness to sell further confirmed by the dynamics of futures on shares of companies during the evening session, FORTS, where most of the contracts on stocks closed in the zeros. Technically, the potential downward movement is limited to strong levels of support, which is likely a technical turn up, in particular equities, Rosneft was closed yesterday's session at the level of 38,2%-term correction of Fibonacci from year highs, so the opening action can cannon from the support level 184 rub. per share, which is to reduce the position paper. Interesting ideas of the day can be a campaign Novatek which is traditionally a high volatility on the day of release reporting today is expected to accounts for the I half of 2009 under IFRS.

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