Russia's market players are optimistic, at least, their optimism was enough to make during the day stock indicators rose. However, given the positive news background, this dynamics is quite justified: they wanted to hear confirmation of the U.S. Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke on the positive trends in the economy - to hear (the global economy tends to restore). In addition, growth was observed on the trading floors in China. Also pleased with the prices rising trend in oil and metals. This negative news that could spoil the picture of the auction, was expected. As a result of growth - on a broad front of the securities. Greatest demand action Savings Bank, especially privileged. Also excelled growth securities sector steel companies - Severstal, MMK, NLMK. Oil and gas companies looked a little worse than others - there has been a sale, but towards the end of the trading session, they also came in above-zero area.

growth in the market will continue, if in the near future, investors will retain the increased appetite for risk, which, in turn, will depend on macroeconomic statistics and commodity prices. In any case, we advise investors to maintain a certain caution, since rally in commodity markets may end at any moment, because significant increase in the cost of raw assets are not supported by fundamental factors such as market participants tend to evaluate.

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market growth hinders overbought

On Monday, Russia's stock market is consolidating in the immediate vicinity of the maximum values of the past week. The MICEX index rising by 15-30 at 0,35%, while the RTS index by strengthening the ruble exchange rate has flied up on 2,75%. In general, our indexes are ready to be higher, but so far this prevents the growth of their local overbought.

After a small and brief profit-taking, in our market is maturing a new wave of growth. We associate it with the irrepressible desire of investors to invest in risky assets on the background of a weak dollar. But the strongest theme of this summer is all the same: out of the world economy from the crisis. The fall of the markets last fall was very strong, no less strong and must be rebound. Apparently so large shareholders do not hasten to sales, while speculators deduce stock quotes on all higher levels.

After Friday's rally in oil securities, the sector is somewhat overbought. In view of the stabilization of oil prices, I think, in the near future we will see the resumption of demand in the securities of the banking sector: Sberbank of 1,6%. Very good prospects are also paper MMC Norilsk Nickel (0.1%) to the resumption of demand in the sector of non-ferrous metals in London: copper 0.7%, nickel 2.2%.

top gainers on our exchanges confidently hold shares of AvtoVAZ (18%) and KAMAZ (13%). Rostehnologii Corporation intends to establish a joint holding company on the basis of 25% stake in AvtoVAZ, KAMAZ shares 37,8% and 30% stake in the plant Avtodizel. We note with great skepticism regarding the establishment of such industrial monsters, knowing that, as a rule, such structures have a low economic efficiency, which is against the background of low demand for their products will be only able to effectively go to the state for new loans and guarantees.

I think that before the end of the day, our market continues to consolidate at current levels, but tomorrow will be a correction of more tangible.

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Europe

European markets in positive territory, opening it at higher levels. Pan-European FTSE Eurotop 100 index increased by 0.46%, Britain's FTSE 100 by 0.4%, the German Xetra Dax at 0.66%, French Lyxor Cac 40 at 0.45%.

market support have statements of head FRS the USA. During his speech at the annual symposium of representatives of the Federal Reserve Banks, Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy is close to the long-awaited recovery from severe recession, economic activity is restored. Nevertheless, he warned that consumers and businesses continue to face enormous difficulties in obtaining loans. Restore confidence in the nearest exit from the crisis and helped the Friday data from the U.S. housing market. Not bad statistics released today and in the euro area. The volume of industrial orders in the euro area in June rose by 3.1% annualized rate decreased to 25.1%. data still were better than forecasts. Expected growth for the month by 1.5%, lower for the year by 28.9%. The leaders advocate increasing shares of steel companies, metals again gets published. Eurasian Natural 4.2%, Xstrata 3.7%, Rio Tinto 3.5%, Anglo American 2.8%, Salzgitter 1.9%.

Oil

optimistic expectations about the future of the world economy and the pace of its recovery, erupted with renewed force after the data from the U.S., supported by oil quotations. Spot Brent $ 73.56, WTI $ 73.29. Futures in the neutral zone.

Russia

The market opened higher, but the continuation of rapid growth followed. Positive from the U.S., we have already played on Friday night, there was a desire to take profits. MICEX even left in a minus, then returned to zero. At 15:20 Moscow time the MICEX index rising by 0.25%, RTS index has increased to 2.55%. Trading volume on the MICEX stock market 32 billion rubles., Slightly below average.

According to media reports, Russia's automobile association planned AvtoVAZ and KAMAZ. This will create a holding company that will be transferred to belong Rostekhnologii 25% stake in AvtoVAZ, KAMAZ 37.8% and 30% of engine manufacturers Avtodizel. AvtoVAZ shares soared 22%, KAMAZ 14%. In the most liquid securities mostly close to neutral dynamics. Gazprom 0.4% -0.1% Lukoil, Surgutneftegaz 0.9%. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin demanded the speedy enactment of legislation for zero customs rate for theexport of oil from individual fields in Eastern Siberia. The greatest advantage of these benefits should receive Rosneft, which began oil production at one of the largest in Russia Vankor field. Rosneft's shares 0.3% news played on Friday, adding 7%. Steel sector lags behind the European sites, where the mining shares rising by 3%. Severstal 2.9%, 1.2% of NLMK, MMK 0.5%, MMC Norilsk Nickel -0.2%.

Outlook

important data today are not, so we will wait for the opening of the market in the United States. The sharp rise on Friday by the closure has allowed the market to gain a foothold above the psychologically important mark of 1100 points on the MICEX index. Now try to surpass 1,130 points.

This week goes a lot of important data in the United States, in particular the refined estimate of GDP for the II quarter and sales in the primary U.S. housing market. If statistics please the markets, the upgrade of the maxima at the level of 1200 points will be possible at the end of the week. The main impetus to growth, on Friday became the statistics with the real estate market, sales in the secondary market rose to its highest level in 2 years with a monthly increase of 7.2% was the biggest in 10 years. Given the fact that the global financial crisis began with the collapse of the real estate market in the U.S., investors viewed the data as a sign of economic recovery. However, it seems to me rather strange that reaction, because data on the number of bookmarks of new homes and building permits, which came out earlier last week, tested negative. On Wednesday released statistics on sales in the primary market, which will confirm or refute expectations of a speedy recovery in the industry. Speculators, I recommend playing on purchases, not forgetting to record profits, the medium-term investors should record profits on individual items.

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Futures on the RTS (RIU9): contango on futures (RIU9), which we have seen since the beginning of trading, to 13-00 Moscow time has become a bekvordatsiyu (-500); futures grows by 3% (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. RTS. Basis in the day.

The number of open positions compared with the opening of the morning was reduced by 2500, at 13-00 Moscow time, the value of this indicator amounted to 364 000 (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. RTS. Open positions within days.

In the medium term, the market remains in the descending trend. Volatility September Putov outside money remains above the volatility of the September call out of money. Thus, the current market we are seeing volatility smirk that signals the continuation of a downward trend (Fig. 3).

Fig 3. RTS. Exchange IV within days.

If we talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number observed in RI90000U9 (put max, Fig. 4) and RI120000I9 (call max, Fig. 4) strike, while the absolute values of these strikes do not allow the focus to these levels as at full form.

Figure 4. Levels optional support /resistance.

The most likely scenario: the breakdown level of 100 000 and the resumption of a downward movement in the area of 90 000.

Least likely scenario: rising to the level of 120 000.

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before the July increase in excise on spirits volume of production increased dramatically. As expected vodochniki, people will not drink less in crisis sorokagradusnoy, they will just buy a cheap vodka

For six months I do not see a sale of cheap vodka. Moreover, that vodka, which used to cost 12 hryvnia, now costs about 14-15 hryvnia per bottle - shares his observations of Technical Staff one of the banks, which, except little white does not recognize any other spirits.

cheap vodka in retail really left. Director of the Association Ukrvodka Ivan Zholner explains: November 30, 2008 the Cabinet set minimum retail price of vodka in the hryvnia rate of 14 per pollitrovuyu bottle. Then the adoption of minimum prices in the forty very happy producers of branded vodka - the main initiators of the appearance of the document. They unanimously declared that this would reduce the proportion of illegal goods on the market, as consumers simply give up the road left of vodka.

boom before the new excise tax

In July last year, predicting market trends, we expect that a stable economic situation will lead to the further development of the industry. But a year later, unfortunately, point to the market both in kind and in monetary terms, - recognizes the marketing Director vodka company Olympus Elena Annenko. According to her hypothesis, because of the economic crisis, the rapid reduction of the solvency of the population, as well as growth in excise tax capacity of the market vodka in the current year will fall by 20% and will be converted to pollitrovki about 600 million bottles. In monetary terms, according Annenko, it falls 15% compared with 2008-m. According to the players, last year the volume of domestic vodka market amounted to about 13 billion hryvnia.

Marketing Director of the Soyuz-Victan Basil Profir, supporting a colleague, also spoke about market failures in monetary terms. His forecasts are more pessimistic. Before, consumers are actively buying a bottle of vodka and a 25 hryvnia, and this segment is rapidly growing. And now people are buying the cheaper product - for 15-17 hryvnia. Therefore, in general, the fall in monetary terms may amount to 25-30 percent, -- Notes Profir.

Nevertheless, judging from the data distillery Khortytsya, still with the volumes from vodochnikov was all right. Commercial Director of enterprise Alexei Tikhonov says: consumption of vodka in Ukraine last year totaled 45.3 million returned, or more than 900 million half-liter bottles (up to 2007-th - 10%). This year, the production and consumption of vodka in Ukraine, and in the world, in general, not decreased, and vice versa - have grown, - he assures. The same tendency was noticed and in the company Soyuz-Victan. In June 2009 compared with June 2008-the first production grew by 66 percent, - said Profir.

However, such a significant increase in production vodochniki explain the fever before the sharp increase in excise duty: 1 July the rate of excise duty has jumped from 21.50 to 34 hryvnia per liter, 100-percent ethanol. So manufacturers have tried to fill the maximum storage products, stuck excise stamps purchased at the old rates.

Fifty kopecks for degrees

Judging by the complaints vodochnikov, namely excise duty - their main enemy. Minimum pricing is based on the excise tax of $ 21.50 hryvnia per liter hundred percent alcohol. Naturally, the minimum wholesale selling price of products will increase in proportion to the tax burden, that is, at least three hryvnia for each bottle, - emphasizes Ivan Zholner. The company Nemiroff claim that even in the lower price segment of a bottle of vodka of 0,5 l capacity increases of three to four hryvnia. Soyuz-Victan predicts growth in the final price by 35% - at least up to 20 hryvnia.

According Profira every manufacturer will try to delay the increase in price or will increase it gradually. Soon, however, wishing to adopt a half-liter on the chest would have to leave each time with a single green banknotes with the portrait of Ivan Franko. According poltinnichku for every degree - joking vodochniki.

According to experts, the increased excise tax will not only increase the cost sorokagradusnoy in retail, but also adversely affect the production activities of the industry. Today, six large companies are shaping more than 60 per cent of the vodka market, and about 40 percent accounted for by other companies licensed to produce. Raising the excise tax in the first place hit by small and medium manufacturers, - says Ivan Zholner. The latter less opportunity to save on the scale. Many companies will stop at two or three months, andmost medium and small producers will go bankrupt or leave the shadows - predicts Basil Profir.

worth noting that reducing the production of an impending vodochniki pipe every time when MPs vote for raising the excise tax. For example, in January 2008, excise tax increased from 19 to 21,5 UAH, but this did not prevent the build up production of vodka in the past year by about 14%.

Left march

sharp increase in excise duties without a corresponding increase in the minimum prices for alcohol means, according to Ukrainian vodochnikov, the increase in illegal production. Alexei Tikhonov said: the proportion of the shadow of alcohol sold in Ukraine today is about 20%. Experts Association Ukrvodka forecast that the consumption of illegal vodka can grow up to 40-60 per cent. Risen steeply price gap between legally and illegally produced products makes the production of the latter a very profitable business, - said the Ukrainian vodka company Nemiroff. Click to continue »

So, stop orders for 60min schedules have been successfully shot down, but the situation turned upside down and there was a classic case: stop-and-reversal. New entry for 60min schedules stop remains the same = 1060 points. Incidentally, the implementation of stop orders signals appeared for sale on the daily charts: Lukoil, Rosneft, Tatneft, Gazprom, but the extra-turn on Friday made the abolition of Lukoil, Rosneft and Tatneft. In general, the band starts playing, where players lose their profits. In my opinion, now is the best - is an investor to take profits and to withdraw the money, wait for some time, otherwise the trading account may fall under the butcher knife puppeteers.

We have saved the global economy from catastrophe, saying something like this in America in the microphone on Friday after 18:00 Moscow time. And the markets have heard and have shot up. Grown up all markets except the U.S.. Can we call a symbolic growth DJIA 1.6% growth in the alleged super-optimistic statements and assurances? Analyzing the closure of 30 stocks from the index, I come to the conclusion that most were glad that says investors DIS (Animation), CAT (Tractors), MRK (Validol) and two other companies, 5 of 30, who grew 3.5%, while 9 of 30 responded to 0.1 1.06%, and the company WMT closed -0.68%. So think about why Russia's market has grown by American statements, but the American market does not even going to grow. Why the alleged good application action cartoon companies grow 3.5%, while shares of IBM are doing a modest 0.8%?

I've much to think about, and if the DJIA will suddenly and strikes down 7000 points, will look like today's optimistic statements? The current optimism is the most - credit hypnotists than meets the eye. If a person every day to say that everything is perfect, he believes, but if you talk long, but do nothing, it begins to irritate. That's why half of American companies can not grow, because investors are tired and do not believe, but even more, investors are afraid that in fact it will not, as they say. Ruin under a zero ten largest banks in the world, and then say, we saved the world from catastrophe ... This will not end so quickly. If my suspicions are confirmed, then the investors in the market may not come until next summer.

RTS, a day - a signal to buy from 23 July 2009.

MICEX, a day - a signal to buy from 23 July 2009.

Gazprom, a day - a sell signal on August 17 2009.

GMKNorNikel, day - a buy signal from July 20, 2009.

Lukoil, a day - a signal to buy from August 21, 2009.

Rosneft, a day - a signal to buy from August 21, 2009.

Savings on, day - a buy signal from July 23, 2009.

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The end of the exchange trading on the equity market on Friday went on an optimistic note. The reason for this are the figures for sales of secondary residences in the United States for July - figures were better than expected (5.24 million homes against the projected 4.99 million homes), and the comments of head FRS Ben Bernanke that the world economy is gradually recovering from recession by state implosion.

Following trades MICEX index added 4%, RTS index - more than 3%. Shot oil industry: Rosneft (6.8%), Surgutneftegaz (5.6%), LUKoil (5.5%) and Gazprom (5.9%).

U.S. indexes gained more than 1.5% for the last session, the Dow Jones closed above 9500p. Today, their futures added more than half a percent. Oil is trading nearnew annual maximum - $ 75 per barrel. Eurodollar is located just above the 1.43 mark, gold - just above 950 dollars per troy ounce.

Today, Russia's stock market opened in positive territory at 1.2%. The closest resistance levels are 1100p. - On the RTS index and 1130p. - On MICEX. Break these levels and access to the new range with the upper limit of 1200p. the RTS index and 1225p. MICEX index will be possible in the case of bridge piers on the oil market resistance level of $ 75 per barrel.

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