August 25th, 2009

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Russia stock market open significant decline, unable to end morning trading to close «gap»

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

 
  
 
 
  25.08.09 20:53 ;
  Russia's stock market started the day a significant decrease in quotations of marketable securities. This contributed to a negative external background, formed before the opening of domestic sites. U.S. index futures declined after two days of positive market dynamics. At the Asian sites observed profit-taking. By 12.30 Moscow time the MICEX index fell by 1,347% and amounted to 1105.45 points, the RTS index fell by 1.14% to 1081.5 points.

The worst of the market while stocks seemed Russia's oil and gas sector. The reason for a deeper reduction of the sector has been falling oil prices by more than 1%.

After strong growth in trading Monday on the background of news about a new automotive holding paper AvtoVAZ on Tuesday declined. Today the president of AvtoVAZ Boris Aleshin has announced his decision to leave the post of head of the company in connection with his transfer to another job. At the end of the day ordinary and preference shares of auto giant fallen on 5,32% and 3,61% respectively.

positive momentum shown today shares Dorogobuzh, adding up to the auction 4,55%. According to information published on Monday, Silvinit re-directed to the address manufacturers of complex fertilizers (Akron, Dorogobuzh and other) contracts for the supply of potassium chloride before the end of 2009 on the recommendation by the Ministry of Industry and Trade prices at a level 3 955 rub. ton.

On the afternoon of painting in Russia market began to change for the better - the decline to a halt. This helped improve the situation on the world sites, futures on U.S. stock indexes began to grow again. In separate papers, Russia appeared purchase, and soon more of them.

oil and gas sector finished the day in the «green belt»: «Gazprom» (0,07%), «LUKOIL» (0,05%), «Rosneft» (0,9%), «Surgutneftegaz» (1, 2%). Quotes «Severstal» climbed to 2,81%, «Mechel» soared to 4.21%.

The relatively high growth showed on Tuesday shares in Russia's consumer sector, above all - the paper «Magnet» (6,58%), which, as experts note, once again act out quite favorable financial statistics of the company, which was published recently.

banking sector concluded Tuesday negative values: «Sberbank» (-0,8%), VTB (-1,5%). «An interesting event of the day was the announcement of the offering price of additional issue of VTB 4.82 penny per share. Today's auction VTB shares finished at 4.37 kopeks, which contributes to the rise of securities at the opening. Judging by the catechumens prices, the additional issue will not participate minority shareholders, investors were only state which, judging by the plans to increase its stake to spend 180 billion rubles. So, tomorrow at the opening of the bank's shares can punch up psychologically significant level of 4.5 kopecks », - says Natalya Yassin, an analyst at GK ALOR.

One of the leaders of the fall campaign began «RusHydro», quotes which went down at 5.84%. Click to continue »

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Ukraine is ready again to buy gas in Turkmenistan and a transporter of Nabucco

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Ukraine is ready to negotiate on the resumption of direct deliveries of gas from Turkmenistan in the volume to 15 billion cubic meters a year, while he sees himself transporter one of the branches of the European gas pipeline Nabucco. This agency Reuters said Ukrainian Ambassador to Turkmenistan Viktor Maiko.

is expected that this issue will be discussed during the visit of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko in Turkmenistan, scheduled for mid September 2009.

We are ready for tripartite talks on the possibility of resuming direct purchases of Turkmen gas to some extent ... Maybe it will be 10-15 billion cubic meters of gas, - said Mike. By his estimation, the harmonization of this issue may need to six months or even years.

Turkmenistan as the main exporter of gas and Ukraine as the main importer could initiate talks on direct shipments, as it once was. It would be fair and reasonable, - quotes agency says Mike.

During the 1990 Ukraine directly buy all Turkmen gas exports of around 35 billion cubic meters a year. In early 2000 Gazprom took over the role of re-exporter. Nevertheless, the ultimate consumer of fuel from Central Asia, where Turkmenistan - the largest gas exporter, remains Ukraine. Now the purchase of Turkmen fuel Gazprom is 45-50 billion cubic meters per year. At the sale of gas to Ukraine Turkmen gas is mixed with Russia.

Over the past few years, Ukraine has bought from Gazprom to 50 billion cubic meters of gas. In 2009, fuel consumption, according to the forecast of Ukraine, may drop to 32-33 billion cubic meters, and in 2010 - up to 25 billion cubic meters. Click to continue »

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Trading volume on the market of government securities amounted to 27.37 billion rubles

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

At 17.00 Moscow time the price index value RGBI was 116. Compared with the previous day's close it had fallen to 0.07 § (0.06%). Trading volume on the market of government securities amounted to 27.37 billion rubles. RU000A0JQ623 Yield on bonds with maturity in December 2009 was 8.35% (00 percentage points), SU25064RMFS5 on bonds with maturity in January 2012 - 11.68% (0.15 percentage points) on the bonds SU25065RMFS2 with date maturity in March 2013 - 12.03% (-0.01 percentage points), SU25066RMFS0 on bonds with maturity in July 2011 - 11.31% (00 percentage points), SU25067RMFS8 on bonds with maturity in October 2012 . - 11.86% (-0.03 percentage points). C corporate bonds signed 764 deals amounting to 6573.89 million rubles. VostServF1 Yield on bonds with maturity in September 2009 was 237.88% (20.64 percentage points) on the bonds GHS 01 with maturing in March 2017 - 12.42% (-1.79 percentage points) on the bonds YugFinSer01 with maturity in May 2014 - 15.76% (-0.01 percentage points) on the bonds of OGK-5 BW-1 with maturity in July 2010 - 12.34% (-0.14 percentage points) on the bonds of FGC-02 from maturing in June 2010 - 10.84% (-0.32 percentage points). C sub-federal and municipal bonds signed 124 deals amounting to 2342.96 million rubles. Yield on bonds MGor54-on with maturity in September 2012 was 13.23% (-0.01 percentage points), on bonds MGor63-on with maturity in December 2013 - 13.42% (-0.23 percentage points), , Mos.obl.8v on bonds with maturity in June 2013 - 16.61% (0.3 percentage points), 5 SamarObl on bonds with maturity in December 2013 - 15.52% (0.2 percentage points) bonds MGor61-on with maturity in June 2013 - 13.75% (0.09 percentage points).

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Devaluation - surrender to the crisis

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Information Unit (part of the investment holding company Finam) held a conference Russia's stock markets: in anticipation of the second wave. Its participants do not expect a shaft of negative developments in Russia's economy - a sharp devaluation will not, but the Stock Market, is only a slight decrease. The main factor - quite expensive and stable oil prices.

experts do not expect a new wave of devaluations. For example, principal analyst ITinvest Alexander Potavin sure that it can happen only if the sharp fall in global stock markets and oil prices. However, he did not rule out that the scrapping of the growing trend on the stock exchanges will be sharp, strong and sudden. When - is unknown. Around the same momentum is expected later in the domestic foreign exchange market since the ruble exchange rate. Especially to devalue the ruble in favor of the budget execution is no be.

It seems the point of view is held by the chief of analytical department of the bank Petrokommerts Oleg Solomin: stereotype is now misleading - the devaluation of the salvation of the budget. Devaluation - a capitulation of the central bank of any country to market forces. It can be deferred, to adjust, but it is extremely difficult to cancel . Hold it matter? That is to announce tomorrow a new course, which will save the budget? Ie declare a rate of 56 rubles? I believe that this balanced budget is unlikely anyone will need, as economic agents to lose such a country, every interest, and the most active part to take radical steps to conclude the business. I think the authorities understand the associated problems of the budgetary decision dilemma.

strategist Finam Vladimir Sergievsky believes that in favor of the ruble will play a weakening of the dollar: If the world economy continues to recover, then the dollar will weaken to most world currencies. His forecast for the rate of USD /RUB at the end of the year - 32. Click to continue »

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Review of the precious metals market for 24.08.09

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Dynamics

On Monday 24 August at the tender quotes for precious metals suddenly gravely diminished in value due to increased sales on the basis of technical factors amid falling stock price with the highs reached earlier, and because strengthening the U.S. dollar in the currency market FOREX.

As a result of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), quotes on gold decreased by 11.00 to 943.70 dollars per ounce, silver prices rose 3 cents to 14.23 dollars per ounce.

Causes

On Monday, August 24 quotes for precious metals market has shown a significantdrop in price. U.S. stock indexes closed down different direction, but the companies' shares are down from peaks reached earlier due to the fall of the financial sector amid expectations of significant write-offs due to credit losses, the publication of weak corporate reports, as well as comments by a well-known analyst Richard Bove that 150-200 more U.S. banks will fail in the banking crisis. Some market participants may also sell gold because of fears the expiration of the option period, which is expected on Wednesday. Moderate growth in the U.S. dollar in the FOREX market is also restrained the rise in prices for gold. The technical picture is only reinforced the decline of the golden quotes because they have been punched important support levels and moving averages.

From news can note that the third volume of gold production in North America, a Canadian company, Kinross increased its gold production in the first half of 2009 on 47,3% to 1.087 million ounces (33.8 tonnes) of gold equivalent. This is largely managed through the door at full capacity, Russia Kupol, which owns 75% of Canadians. Following six months of production at the Dome was 491.388 million ounces (13.2 tonnes) of gold equivalent, representing about one-third of the total production of Kinross. Click to continue »

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Finam downgraded shares of IDC Center and Volga Region

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Investment Company Finam lowered its target price of one ordinary shares of JSC MRSC of Center and Volga Region by 43% to $ 0.0064 at the end of 2010 conservation BUY recommendation. Analysts say the economic crisis has led to the suspension of the transition to RAB-tariff regulation affiliates IDC, reducing the value of investment programs, as well as the possible lack of indexation of the tariff in 2010.

In the first half of 2009 due to the negative impact of the crisis there was a decrease of production and financial performance, IDC Center and Volga Region. According to the published financial statements according to RAS, leave the network for 6 months of 2009 declined by 12% to $ 27.6 billion kWh. Useful vacation for the first half of 2009 declined by 13% to $ 27.7 billion kWh. In this case the total losses during the transport of electricity increased by 1 percentage point and amounted to 10,5%. Expenses IDC Center and Volga Region in the first half of 2009 grew by 35%. The growth rate of expenditures IDC Center and Volga Region was on 12 percentage points above the rate of revenue growth, - says the study Finam .

Analysts of investment company noted that in published reports they are particularly troubling faster growth of costs, compared with an increase in revenue caused by the increase in articles that are beyond the control of management of the company. However, the current system of regulation of tariffs of the company involves compensation forgone earnings in future periods.

Investment Program IDC Center and Volga Region was significantly reduced compared with pre-crisis values. The new investment program involves a smaller amount of power inputs and a reduction in monetary terms. Click to continue »

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In the long term in Russia's market remains a good potential for growth

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Asian sites completed today a slight drop: The Japanese index (NIKKEY) dropped to 0.79%, the index of Hong Kong (Hang Seng) fell 0.49%, Chinese index (Shanghai Composite) fell by 2.62%, Korean index (KOSPI) fell 0.67%. European sites exhibit a similar trend: English Index (FTSE) loses more than 0,35%, German Index (DAX) fell to -0.47%, the French index (SAS40) has lost more than 0,30%. Statistics today is not so much, at 18.00 Moscow time, there are data on consumer confidence in the U.S..

Today, RTS index has taken over Asia. By the fall of 12.30 reached more than 1.00%, reaching 1,081.50 points. MICEX and ММВБ10 in turn lost 1,19% and 1,02% respectively. Major blue chips falling in the range from 0,30% to 1,80%.

On the commodity market dominated by negative dynamics. Prices of Brent crude reached a high of $ 73.55 per barrel (-0.96%). Gold rose to above $ 948.20 per troy ounce (0.47%). In the metals market observed multidirectional movement: aluminum (-1.61%), copper (-1.61%), nickel (-2.47%), tin (0.55%), zinc (1.80%), lead (5.88%)

P /E 2010 the RTS index is at 12, characterizing the high current assessment of the market in general. Russia's GDP has slowed the pace of decline. In late July, the Ministry of Economic Development released economic data for June. Reduction of GDP slowed for the first time since February to 9,6% compared with June last year, against the reduction of 10,5% and 11% in April and May, respectively. Despite the emergence of new positive trends, the risks are even greater. Despite this, in the long term in Russia's market remains a good potential for growth. In the near future, interested bidders may proceed with the already highly acclaimed blue chip shares of medium and small capitalization. First and foremost, is to allocate such actions as: Korshunov Mining Plant, OGK-4, Silvinit AP and Ulan-Ude VZ. Shares of these companies are able to bring to investors a three-digit profitability in the future 1-2 years.

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In the future dynamics of Russia's stock market will be determined external information background

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Russia's stock markets rose yesterday, in terms of volatility. The growth of stock indexes in Europe and U.S. index futures, commodity prices and the strengthening of the ruble led to an increase in the dollar index on 4,15% RTS, MICEX - by 1,3%. Shares of oil and gas sector, experiencing support from Western foundations, have risen in dollar terms by an average of 5,5%. On the MICEX, the increase was from 1.2% in Gazprom to 6% in Tatneft. Shares of metallurgical sector have risen in price by 1,9%.

favorably allocated Evraz with the result of 7,2%. On Monday, Sept. 1 is expected publication of the consolidated financial statements for Evraz 1P09. Shares of banks have risen in RTAs on average by 2%, shares of Sberbank, the MICEX grew by 1%, preferred - on 5,9%. Investors responded positively to the financial statements of the company up to 7 months, however, the pressure on the price dynamics have sales package GDR Sberbank.

European markets finished Monday growth of 1-2%, the U.S. - have completed the session with minimal changes, different direction. Asian stock exchanges today, showing a decrease in the indices on Tuesday against the backdrop of controversial results of the auctions in the U.S., strengthening the yen against the U.S. dollar and the publication of negative reporting of the Australian Suncorp-Metway Ltd. Also affects the technical correction after yesterday's rally, when the index Nikkei, for example, rose by 3,5%. Japanese index to 9:30 Moscow time adjusted down to 0.5%, while China Shanghai Comp - by 4,5%, against a background of negative reporting Jiangxi Copper Co and correction in metals prices. Oil prices are now falling - by an average of 0,5%, to $ 73.96 per barrel WTI and $ 73.84 per barrel Brent.

We expect the market to open in the red zone. Falling prices in the first hour of trading will be about 1%. In the future, be determined by the dynamics of external information background. From interesting makronovostey U.S. - Consumer Confidence Index and the index of industrial activity FRB Richmond.

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Deposits of legal entities - Market Overview

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

25.08.2009 at 10:30 am on the deposit market for legal persons was recorded following situation.

For the contribution 50000,00 UAH offers banks fluctuate in following ranges:
For 1 month - 4.00% - 21.50% per annum, while 21.50% - Bohuslav;
At 3 months - 7.50% - 25.00% per annum, while 25.00% - Ukrgasbank;
At 6 months - 10.00% - 25.50% per annum, while 25.50% - Ukrgasbank;
At 9 months - 11.00% - 26.00% per annum, while 26.00% - Ukrgasbank;
for 12 months - 14.00% - 26.50% per annum, while 26.50 % - Ukrgasbank;
At 18 months - 15.50% - 27.00% per annum, while 27.00% - Ukrgasbank;
At 24 months - 14.70% - 27.50% per annum, while 27.50% - Ukrgasbank;
At 36 months - 14.00% - 21.00% per annum, with 21.00% - First Investment Bank.

most common such proposal:
for 1 month - 14.00% per annum, which is 583.33 UAH per month - are offering : Poltava-Bank KB, Porto-Franco.
for 3 months - 15.00% per annum, which is 625.00 UAH per month - offer: Diamantbank, Poltava-Bank KB, Expobank.
At 6 months - 17.00% per annum, which is 708.33 UAH per month - offer: CREDIT Dnepr KB, Poltava-Bank KB, Porto-Franco, UPB.
At 9 months - 15.50% per annum, which is 645.83 UAH per month - offer: Diamantbank, Kredobank.
At 12 months - 18.00% per annum, which is 750.00 UAH per month - are offering: CREDIT Dnepr KB, Poltava-Bank KB, Porto-Franco.
At 18 months - 19.00% per annum, which is 791.67 UAH per month - are offering: Poltava-Bank KB Porto-Franco.
At 24 months - 14.70% per annum, which is 612.50 UAH per month - offer: Khreshchatyk.
for 36 months - 14.00% per annum, which is 583.33 UAH per month - offer: Kredobank.

;

For the contribution 10000,00 USD offers banks fluctuate in following ranges:
At 1 month - 2.00% - 10.00% per annum, with This 10.00% - First Investment Bank;
At 3 months - 4.00% - 13.00% per annum, while 13.00% - Ukrgasbank;
At 6 months - 4.00% - 13.50% per annum, while 13.50% - Ukrgasbank;
At 9 months - 8.30% - 14.00% per annum, while 14.00% - Ukrgasbank;
for 12 months - 7.50% - 14.50% per annum, while 14.50% - Ukrgasbank;
At 18 months - 7.50 % - 15.00% per annum, while 15.00% - Ukrgasbank;
At 24 months - 9.70% - 15.50% per annum, while 15.50% - Ukrgasbank;
for 36 months - 9.00% - 12.00% per annum, while 12.00% - First Investment Bank.

most common such proposals:
At 1 month - 7.50% per annum, which amounts to 62.50 USD per month - offer: Diamantbank, INDEXBANK, Kredobank.
At 3 months - 10.00% per annum, which amounts to 83.33 USD per month - are offering: Agrocombank, First Investment Bank Porto-Franco, UPB.
At 6 months - 11.00% per annum, which amounts to 91.67 USD per month - are offering: Agrocombank, Delta Bank Porto-Franco, UPB.
At 9 months - 9.00% per annum, which amounts to 75.00 USD per month - offer: Diamantbank, INDEXBANK, Khreshchatyk.
for 12 months - 12.00% per annum, which is 100.00 USD Monthly - offer: Bohuslav, Delta Bank, Porto-Franco. Click to continue »

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Speculative recommendation on shares of Polyus Gold, Lukoil, Gazprom, VTB and Sberbank

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

POLE GOLD

Surrounding levels of support: 1250.0 /1220.0 /1215.0 /1206.0

Surrounding resistance levels: 1264.0 /1300.0 /1350.0

As a result of yesterday's session, shares of Polyus Gold added to the value of 0,567% and closed at around 1252.06 USD. Paper gold mining companies continue to bargain in the descending lateral channel. Today is expected to open with a gap down - stocks will rush to the bottom of the channel. Attractive levels for shopping is the mark of 1,206 rubles. And close long positions is near the upper boundary of the channel at the level of 1264 rubles.

GAZPROM, /b>

Surrounding levels of support: 167.7 /165.0 /161.8 /160.0

Surrounding resistance levels: 170.0 /175.0 /180.0

Gazprom shares on the eve of added cost 1,196%, returning to the uptrend, which were traded in late July, and from whence they came out early last week. However, yesterday's return was a temporary thing: today is expected to open on securities with a gap down. Attractive level for buying a 200-day moving average (161.8 rubles). And for closing positions - 170 USD mark.

LUKOIL

Surrounding levels of support: 1600.0 /1594.5 /1584.0 /1530.0 /1526.2

Surrounding resistance levels: 1700.0 /1705.0 /1713.2 /1754.5

Following the last session, shares of LUKoil was added to the cost of 3,070%. Securities managed to close above the psychologically significant resistance at 1600 rubles. That today at the opening will deter bearish sentiment. However, this level is likely to be struck.

attractive level for buying a stamp in 1570 rubles. and the preferred position for today is short. A long-term view on shares of LUKoil is the level of 1700 rubles. To which the paper and flocked to the course of yesterday's session.

SBERBANK

Surrounding levels of support: 49.1 /48.5 /48.3 /47.1

Surrounding resistance levels: 50.0 /52.0 /54.7

Sberbank shares closed in positive territory at 0,985%. Resistance was made by the psychologically significant level of 50 rubles.

Opening of bank securities is expected in the negative zone, due to the worsening external background. Attractive levels for purchases is 50%-th Fibonacci correction on the annual maximum (47.08 rub.). Recommend close positions near the psychologically significant mark of 50 rubles.

VTB

Surrounding levels of support: 4,38 /4,30 /4,27 /4,10 /4,05

Surrounding resistance levels: 4,50 /5,00

VTB shares on the session closed at the zeros, the levels of previous day's close. Resistance came psychologically significant mark of 4.5 kopecks. During the trading day the paper consolidated near the upper limit of the lateral canal.

Today is expected to open with a gap down - stocks will rush to the bottom of the channel (4,05 cop.), which looks attractive to the opening position. Close long positions would recommend near the upper boundary of the channel (4,44 cop.).

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