market is set to correction

On the eve of Russia's stock market showed rather quiet trading session. The main motion, according to tradition, had the curtain of the trading day, after the start of the session on the U.S. sites. Toward the close of trading on the domestic stock market experienced point of purchase in the most liquid securities, in particular, preferred shares of Sberbank, which, when added more than 8% by closing strong demand action Tatneft. The volume of the purchase exceeded the daily performance of which may suggest that the buying was linked to the setting of large stock in Russia's securities issuers. So today rely on this support is not worth it, especially since the sober mood at the start of trading on the American sites have led to speculative profit taking from the 1,130 points resistance level on the MICEX index.

After our closing situation in external sites has changed for the worse, so a wave of profit taking at the opening will continue. U.S. indices fell back from the maximum levels at which closed domestic market shares. London Brent went below $ 74 a barrel, that on 0,8% below the levels at which ended yesterday's session on domestic exchanges. U.S. index futures traded in a symbolic negative.

Opening the market is seen with 0,5% - a 1% gepom down, then the dynamics will be determined by the situation on external sites. In general, given the expected on Wednesday and Thursday statistics, the market may dominate sales, with growth of the MICEX Index over the last three sessions has exceeded 8%, and investors fear the revision of U.S. GDP in the negative direction, would prefer to take profits. The signal for sale is a sharp and - more than 3% - reduction in the Chinese index. After the gap down at the opening of the indices in zalyagut Bokovikov, waiting for the statistics from the U.S. (the index of consumer confidence and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector).

support for the index of the MICEX in the first half of the session will address the level of 1100 points. In the case of conservation of negative signals and exit of negative statistics on the U.S. index of strikes this support and rush to the level of 61,8%-term correction of Fibonacci of the maximum annual levels. Resistance will be the level of 1120 points.

Shares of Russia's oil and gas sector were among the favorites in the last trading day, at the start of today's session may be subject to the greatest sales, playing with a negative primary sites, where the price of oil adjusted downward pressure strengthens the dollar. Reducing oil futures on the paper industry during the evening session on FORTS (on average - on 2%) also points to the negative mood of market participants. As shares in Rosneft would recommend build speculative positions on the purchase of the 200 rubles. to fix in the area of 205 rubles.

Regular news from the automotive sector will increase volatility in the securities industry. B. Aleshin leaves the post of president of AvtoVAZ, a shareholder group - Rostekhnologii - hopes to transfer the management of the new structure headed by the CEO Kamaz S. Kogogin. In my opinion, the news only increases the speculative activity in securities, since the fundamental efficiency of the possible merger is questionable. In this regard, I recommend to take profits on shares. On the eve of paper AvtoVAZ, hitting the powerful resistance returned to levels close of June, which also limits the potential for further upward movement.

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correction in oil prices in favor of the bears

Today at the opening of Russia's trading likely moderately negative dynamics. Negative impact of Asian indices and the weakening of oil prices. However, if the U.S. statistics do not let you down, Russia's market has every chance to continue its growth. Today at 18.00 Moscow time, will be published index of consumer confidence (Consumer Confidence) for August, expectations - 47,5.

More activity today is available in the shares of Gazprom and VimpelCom. Tomorrow before the opening of trading, Gazprom will publish consolidated financial results for the first quarter. However, these results have little interest. Gazprom, in contrast to the oil chips publishes consolidated accounts as an afterthought. Now the market is more important future earnings Gazprom on deliveries of gas to Europe. Export price follows oil prices with a lag of 6-9 months, probably as Gazprom will retain the old pre-crisis market share. Gazprom is the most attractive chip oil and gas sector at current levels, with a target level of $ 7.9 VimpelCom will publish consolidated financial results for the second quarter on August 27 in the cellular sector and broader telecom, we continue to allocate shares of ITT, which have low-risk and the best potential from our point of view.

First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that he sees the resumption of economic growth in Russia. Perhaps now, with Russia's authorities have grounds for moderate optimism. Costly oil will affect the real sector with a lag of 3-6 months. Positive impact on economic activity of the credit gos. Banks and investment activity of public corporations. Plus impact effect of the base. In the first half, we compared the crisis 09 months, with the pre-crisis 08. And in the second half will be comparing 09 months of crisis to crisis 08. In our opinion, this year the decline in GDP of 7.5%, however, the next growth - 1-2%. Talk about a major new wave of crisis, we believe unfounded. Although not exclude the devaluation of the ruble by 10-20% at the end of the year because of budget problems. Generals always prepare for the last war.

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