Correctional decline in global stock markets continued during yesterday's trading. If the auction in the United States once again not made virtually no adjustment in the values of the indices, during the Asian session, the market dominated by selling. Distrust of investors to indications of recovery in the world economy, fears of compression and increasing the probability of liquidity crisis of overproduction in China led to the exit risky assets. For Russia's key market indicator in determining its further progress, once again will be oil, which fell to $ 71 a barrel. Against this background, it is possible that domestic indexes in the morning will come under pressure and lose even 1,5-2%. However, with the end of auctions treasuries, as well as fairly good expectations regarding planned for Thursday and Friday of statistics from the U.S. stock markets may have a chance at rehabilitation.

American indices, despite strong sales data on new buildings and growth in orders for durable goods, finished the trading day with a minimal increase: Dow rose 0,04%, SP - on 0,01%. On the market there was nervousness, perhaps due to fears that investors face in front of the imminent end of the program to repurchase toxic assets, as well as regulatory restrictions on speculation in commodity markets. As a result of a surge of activity in the real estate sector in July was unable to overcome the pessimism of investors cautious. Sales of new buildings rose by 9.6%, more than double the forecast (4%). Against the backdrop of increased demand, property prices have stopped its fall, which plays into the hands of U.S. financial sector, with its colossal amounts of mortgage debt. Statistics on orders for durable goods also exceeded expectations: the figure rose by 4,9%.

In general, the flow of positive macro data from the U.S., accompanied by a sufficiently positive rhetoric of representatives of the monetary authorities, allows you to build a positive growth forecasts for the U.S. economy in the third quarter, which officially confirms the end of the recession in the United States.

Despite the positive statistics from the United States, at the auctions in Asia dominated the sale. Index MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.8%. The main reason for the development of corrective decline in the Asian sites are fears the crisis of overproduction in China. It is learned that the Government Celestial exploring ways to curb the extent of oversupplyin the steel and cement industries, as well as greater control over the coal, glass industry and energy. A consequence of tighter control may be the reduction of state purchases, which caused investors to exit from these sectors.

resource assets remained under pressure against the trend received to care investors from risk. In addition, worsening economic expectations against the oil played a greater than expected increase in oil inventories in the United States. Although it should be noted that it was partly offset by reductions in gasoline stocks, which shows a certain recovery in demand of Americans for energy. As a result, the observed reduction of oil is likely to be short term and in the coming days we can hope to restore the quotation of black gold.

drop in petroleum quotations to $ 71 a barrel, as well as the negative dynamics of the Asian indices seem to predetermine a negative opening of the domestic market, the loss of which can make 1,5-2%. The worst of the market will look Company metallurgical sector. Neftyanka apparently also suffer from being sold, but it is not excluded that in the context of the likely technical rebound of oil upwards, in shares of oil companies before the end of the week back in demand.

From corporate history is worth emphasizing is not so bleak as one might expect, Gazprom accounts under IFRS for the first quarter, and as it turned out very good deal to acquire 23.34% stake in the second Sibir Energy, which cost the monopolist the $ 770 million, with the premium to the market amounted to only $ 30 million

You can also select Mosenergosbyt, which decided to pay dividends to shareholders for the first half of 2009 to 0.03 rubles. per share (in total about 847 million rubles.). Now the company's stock traded at 0,175 rubles., Respectively, dividend yield will be about 17%.

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not had time to die down fanfare in honor of the signing of agreements on the construction of the Nabucco and South Stream, as another infopovod granted Ukraine. New idea on the fact of being very old - do not buy Turkmen gas from Gazprom, but directly.

memories of the past

With stormy

military events at the beginning of the gas issue, month after month does not lose relevance. And each time for this occasion is: the March signing of the Declaration of gas transport in Brussels before the regular Russia laments the fact that here in Ukraine next month, just can not pay for the supplied blue fuel. And the closer the heating season, the more attention is paid to the fate of the contracts signed in January. And let the contract extends until the end of 2019, the Ukrainian side, it seems, constantly looks for options for improving the situation. One of them, apparently, is intended to be the idea of returning to the old scheme - the direct purchase of gas from Turkmenistan.

winning novelty such an idea is no different. By and large, for many years, namely Turkmenistan was the main supplier of cheap gas to Ukraine, for which our country was paying a cash and barter. But in the first half of 2000's understanding of energy suffered several blows. On the one hand, Turkmenbashi Saparmurat Niyazov longer satisfied with the current scheme - and the price, and the ideological - a developing country's economy would have preferred to increase the proportion of injections live money. On the other hand - in 2003, was signed on 25-year contract with Gazprom, involving several years to increase purchasing Russia's Corporation to a level that is not intended to be that they have no buyers (up to 70-80 billion cubic meters of 2009).

Because of these factors, as well as memorabilia of diplomatic failures of the Ukrainian leadership (starting with the head of Naftogaz Oleksiy Ivchenko those days) in 2005, a favorable moment for the extension of existing arrangements for twenty years was lost. Since early 2006-th Ukraine to stop buying Turkmen blue fuel from Ashgabat. But do not use them - in the years most of the gas, absorbed the Ukrainian economy continued to remain Turkmen origin.

Only schemes were quite different: RosUkrEnergo bought from Gazprom little (2006 - 17 billion cubic meters) of expensive natural gas and Russia's more (about 60 billion cubic meters) of various low-cost Central Asian origin, and Input Kiev has received a relatively inexpensive first gas average of origin. But time passed, gas (including Asian) became more expensive, headed by the new leader of Turkmenistan - Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, and Ukraine after a series of efforts of the current Prime Minister has refused the services of intermediaries. It's time to discuss the prospects ...

On the possibility of direct purchase of energy from Central Asian suppliers remembered with enviable regularity. But the effectiveness of these memories is negligible: in his time, Gazprom concluded prudently close to the exclusive contracts for their rights to the product of Asian wells. Nevertheless, August 25, the Ukrainian ambassador in Ashgabat, Viktor Maiko said that in the near future, the two Presidents will discuss the scheme of sale, liberated from the intermediaries. We are ready for tripartite (with Russia) talks about the possibility of resuming direct purchases of Turkmen gas to some extent .. maybe it will be 10-15 billion cubic meters of gas - sure messenger. Certain terms agreement to declare the diplomat did not: six months, a year - as happens. But he sees a lot of cooperation prospects - up to Ukraine's participation in the gaining popularity of the Nabucco project, which is ready to join, and Turkmenistan. But while the prospect of building another direction (practically duplicate on a hypothetical route beloved Yulia Tymoshenko project White Stream) are in very shaky condition, the theme remains the number one gas through an existing pipe. And for Kyiv and Ashgabat to review the principles of cooperation on the current challenging times more than would have been.

Duma of the present

By mid-2009 both potential partner approached with visible to the naked eye, a desire to reduce its own dependence on Russia's Corporation. But no matter how understandable not look like a dream, it is unlikely that they will find understanding of the current intermediary between the supplier and the consumer.

main, what seems now seeks to Turkmenistan - to find partners for long-term cooperation. Seeks to guide the Central Asian republics in all possible directions. In Europe - through the perspectives of the construction of Nabucco (although for this first step is to pave the Trans-Caspian branch). In China, which is ready to invest billions of dollars in the development of the Turkmen field Southern Iolotan with the prospect of further imports developed energy. In Iran, in the direction that will be running the new pipeline in December this year. But because the contracts signed major gas Ashgabat is a partner of Gazprom, that's only the farther - to a greater extent on paper.

Although originally scheduled to reach that level of supply has not been (instead of 60-70-80 billion in 2006, the corporation bought a little over 40 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas), the Russians remained the biggest clients of the Central Asian deposits until April 2009. By this time, initially low, the price of blue fuel to reach those proportions, when his purchase and resale ceased to be profitable - even though details of the contracts remain a mystery, according to rumors, they talked about a bracket at or above the level of $ 300 per thousand cubes. And all this price splendor was accompanied by a decline in gas supplies in Ukraine and in Europe - crisis, the recession of industry, so even a mild winter have significantly reduced energy demand of buyers. Seventh April Gazprom executives put the partners aware of the fact that something needs to be changed - or lower prices or reduce supply. The very next day, Russia dramatically reduced the sample gas, and soon the sharp increase in pressure (on the version of the exporter) pipe still could not stand it. Click to continue »