Last Friday, Russia's steadily rising quotations. Although they finished the day slightly lower intraday peaks, the victory of bulls was unambiguous. Lighted the whole trading session of FGC UES, who took the bar 20%. Obviously the papers have some Inside, we - mere mortals, at best, know only today.

into confidence stayed in positive territory on Friday and European markets, but the territory. demand in the U.S. used to be mostly stock second tier stocks and automakers.

It is interesting to observe how, in this bustling market price of gold carefully something is up. Empirically, it seems to us that they are paving the way to the top. But while not happen breakdown resistance level $ 960 per ounce, we are not going to draw up objectives for the gold.

Oil prices have chosen a new side of the corridor with boundaries - the peak year and peaks in June-July. And their movements are too boring.

At the background of very dim eyed growth of our ADRs in America. Quotes popular overseas securities added an average of 1,5%. And shares of Mechel has grown more than 5%.

market today

time to lose after the weekend in Russia today, traders will not be. Just have to throw off the bat. It is unlikely that the local stock market will be able to ignore the serious negative key indicators of the Chinese stock exchanges.

We have long noted, despite the fact that the technical picture of quotations of our securities and indexes muddy,we mostly look down on the market.

We do not know whether it is possible, will today open the short positions, or quotes instantly cross borders, for which shorts are prohibited. But sure, that the rush to pay off short positions, or buying securities on their own means, not worth it. Since the next strong support levels are located far enough from the price charts.

For Gazprom shares pulled the sign support to the area of 155 rubles, for the securities of Rosneft to a mark of 190 rubles for a stake in Lukoil to the area 1450/1480 rubles for the shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel's actual support is 3300 rubles . If the paper Savings Bank will fall for the local support 47,5 rubles, they could be waiting around 45 rubles.

MICEX looks good, support the indicator is located in the vicinity of 1050/1060 points, but taking commercial decision, we should pay attention to the RTS index. The graph of this indicator is not all smooth. Robust levels of support to the graph of the RTS index lies in the area of 950/990 points.

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On Friday, the U.S. stock market dominated by mixed sentiment among market participants.

So were published data on personal spending, which in July rose by 0.2% against 0.6% in July.

At the same time, personal income remained unchanged. And finally, the index of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment in August was 65.7 points versus 66.0 in July.

At the end of the trading session U.S. stock indexes closed down different direction /Dow Jones -0.38%, S P500 -0.19%, NASDAQ 0.05% /.

From a technical point of view, on Friday the Dow Jones again went to the fractal to buy at around 9619.55 points, which bulls have managed to pierce rvanuv in the direction of the next wave in the target area of 9637 points.

However, the Bears have managed to gather strength again, and dragged the Dow Jones index at the upper limit of the divergent formations in the vicinity of 9600 points, which is a major resistance level.

In addition, the Bears bad closed the trading week, so this week they need to confirm her bear absorption. Do not exclude that we see the formation of formation of bird on the wire.

So, on the hourly chart of the MACD indicator formed bear divergence, and the indicator Stochastic's in buying.

On the daily chart optimists can still count on the continuation of the jump, after the Dow Jones corrected the growth of 8 July only to 9120 items, representing 23.6% of Fibonacci. All goals rebound 9637-9796-9945-9955-10159 points.

on the daily chart on the indicator MACD bearish divergence. Indicator Stochastic's are on sale.

C wave of the global perspective, we continue to believe that the Dow Jones index is at the stage of formation of a global wave B, which corrects all fall to 23.6% -38.2% -50% of Fibonacci to 9440-10400 counts.

So temporary factors rebound American indexes should be about 6-7 months after 1.5-year-old decline. It is now coming to an end the 6 th month.

So, the Dow Jones on June 11 formed the first stage of the rebound in subvolny well. In the future, was the formation of wave b, which consisted of zigzag abc, where it was too short and has only reached the levels range between 23.6% -38.2% by Fibonacci.

Now we can see the final run up to 9400-9500-9637-9950 items in a wave with a big wave V.

Once complete the formation of a global wave of B, then begin building a global wave of up to 2012 to 2550-3500 points.

From a technical point of view, on Friday the MICEX index opened above the previous closing level, after which the bulls continued formation of corrective rebound.

In the second half of the trading session, the bears and bulls were fighting a local significance in the side of the corridor, and after opening the American market bears were able to neutralize part of the uptrend. The volume of the trading session totaled about 40 billion rubles.

On Friday, the MICEX Index began to evolve, the rebound of 50% -61.8% of Fibonacci from the fall to 1105-1116 items that were supposed to do bulls still on Thursday.

Nonetheless, optimists were able to pierce the line of 1,116 items and attempted to reach 1,123 points, representing 76.4% of Fibonacci numbers, but the Bears did not let them do it and were able to organize a counterattack, forming a spike. In addition, it is worth noting that the weekly chart was won by the Bears, who closed the week of Dodge, but this week should be confirmed.

So, remember that last Thursday's MICEX index formed a 5-wave decline phase, during which had been punctured an important milestone 1,085 points. In the end, as indicated above, on Friday, the bulls have organized a rebound of 50% -61.8% of Fibonacci from falling.

So this week could well start building momentum down, which will be accompanied by the formation of candles bearish absorption and will be a confirmation for Dodge. In addition, today is the struggle for the closure of trading of the month, which is also important.

From the classical point of view of the level of support will be an uptrend in the region of 1087 points, then only 1,057 points.

also worth noting that the MACD indicator neutral situation. In addition, the indicator Stochastic's are on sale.

With the short-wave point of view, last week, the MICEX index continued formation of a large corrective rebound with the objectives 1040-1085-1140 items, representing 50% -61.8% -76.4% of all Fibonacci from the fall on June 2.

So MICEX Index began to form a wave with a view of the double zigzag abc.

Last Tuesday, the MICEX index formed a jump to 1135 points, which most likely was completed, so finally can begin a new stage of decline. The final mid-term break after 970 points, long after the 882 points.

As optimists, they will see the formation of the 5th to subvolny 1230-1330-1402 items, but for this MICEX index should not take 970 points, as well as to overcome the 1,182 points. In this wave, they see the formation of the 3rd wave of small to 1210-1250 points.

Nearest daily fractal for sale is located on a mark of 852.03 points, while the daily fractal purchase is located on a mark of 1130.51 points. Local fractal purchase is a mark of 1147.28 and 1135.84 points, but on sale at elevations 1075.43 and 1013.79 points.

With long-wave point of view, kuklovodskom scenario 2 June MICEX index has completed the formation of a global wave of B, where the comfortable range of 1055-1230 points were rebound, which is 38.2% -50% of all Fibonacci from falling.

In this case, the MICEX index formed a double zigzag WXY in a large wave B.

June 2 to complete the formation wave Y, with the objectives 1050-1070-1110 points, and even the 1230-1250 points, with 4 goals out of 5 were achieved. The final mid-term break after 970 points, long after the 882 points.

Now we are starting a new phase of decline in the global wave 50-150-250 C of the items in the light of panic, and the levels can be achieved by the end of the year - mid-2010 that will be accompanied by the devaluation of the ruble to 40-60 rubles for 1 dollar, falling oil to 15-20 dollars, the Dow Jones index to 2500-3500 points, a possible collapse of the financial system, the transition to a new monetary system, the interchange next senseless war.

As optimists, they believe that is still being formed in a wave of big wave in a simple zigzag abc. Also, can we form a triple zigzag.

In the wave of bulls have formed a wedge because the 1st subvolny in a corrective wave, and then the 2nd subvolnu, reaching 545 points, representing 76.4% of the length of the Fibonacci 1st subvolny.

June 2 MICEX index set a new high, and completed the formation of the 3rd subvolny. July 13 complete the formation of the 4th subvolnu, which reached 1070-963-882 points, representing 23.6% -38.2% -50% of the length of the Fibonacci 3rd subvolny. Now is the formation of the 5th subvolny, the conditions above.

On Friday, we advised to close short positions, while market participants to be ready to rebound to 38.2% -50% -61.8% of Fibonacci from reducing what has been done. Today, we recommend to open short positions, the stop is placed in the vicinity of 1147 points, the minimum goal of 1080-1085 points. Buying or from the trend in the region of 1087 points /stand if /.

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the approach of autumn means and the start of the next political season. Not far off the first plenary meeting of the new session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, will commence soon and the campaign, and sign the policy has come from happy with fresh statements.

Autumn retake

However, summer is over and the period of relative political silence. The last session rest before the presidential election now behind us (considered to be a New Year's holiday vacation is difficult - they have apogee of the campaign), and Ukrainian politicians with new forces preparing to battle for the hearts and minds of voters.

Contrary to some fears, politleto-2009 passed relatively quietly, as for the calm before the storm. Apparently, the main efforts of the public powers that erupted during the prolonged end of last season - along with the struggle to improve living wage tomorrow, deprived of his deputy Lozinski and arduous preparation of a new version of the law on presidential elections. After such passions of summer events is not too impressive magnitude.

most prominent landmarks in the second half of July - August 2009 were a few events. Among them - used extensively by domestic politicians extended visit of Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia (most clearly distinguished, perhaps, Viktor Yanukovich), which played into the hands of the image of the current head of state anger videovozzvanie Dmitry Medvedev and a portion of the reactions to it, a splash of unifying impulses in all possible camps ( left, the national-democratic and mladopoliticheskom), as well as the sudden desire of people's deputies to work at the end of recess. The reason for holding an extraordinary session on August 21 on the surface - looks like that of the need to overcome a presidential veto on two counts. In the first case was that of a fierce political necessity - the inauguration of the notorious election law, the urgency of the second - the financing of the preparation for Euro-2012 by using the National Bank of Ukraine - is dictated by both economic and, possibly, image reasons. Be that as it may, the end of August elect people seem to remember that many vital questions still for them. And do they still have in the coming months.

Based declared in the summer parliamentary plans, fall 2009 should be a memorable time not only through the presidential election. At one time, almost no major advertising announcement of the upcoming season was a persistent struggle of the Party of Regions for raising social standards. On the one hand, the Regionals, in hopes of consciousness of the working group, continue to assert that a vote for a Profile bill will certainly happen as early as 1 September. On the other hand, the principal guardians of the public good time to hedge. Twenty-first of August in the parliament were reported decision regarding the recommendations of Michael Papiyev to have an unwritten state budget - just about the level of the minimum wage and living wage (with an even more attractive figures, but - as from 1 January). So, it is unknown how the fate sotsialki in the fall, but the way to a retreat in the OS already prepared ...

Improving the lives of exams that parliamentarians themselves suffered in the fall, not limited. For example, the Secretariat of the President never tires of reminding that the People's Deputy were going to cancel their own integrity. Some of the likelihood that this important event will occur in the autumn of 2009, there, that's just a matter of reducing the rights of the people's representatives is usually classified as fresh tradition so hard to believe. In addition, the Verkhovna Rada had planned with new forces to take up the struggle with the economic crisis and its social consequences. The intention is laudable, but it is strangely combined with a budget trend. On the eve of the new session is almost no guarantee that the main estimates for the country to be adopted in time (ie - fall) - before the presidential election - neither opposition nor even the government.

Another, designed to retake the problem may be another pending item - reformatting the government. After attempts to address this issue at one of the extraordinary meetings of the end of the previous session, the Prime has moved to positions in the fall - so the fall. Over the past months the situation has not changed. In the Cabinet are still vacant four chairs and more, at least two are under threat of eviction inhabitants (although the middle of summer coal industry minister Viktor Poltavets withdrew his resignation) and continue to plan obzvestis couple-three new vice-premiers . Since the summer, the stumbling block was the lack of understanding between the government and the opposition about the proposed package (remember, the Party of Regions would like to add death list Yuriy Lutsenko and Ivan Vakarchuk), it is unlikely that it will find skhodu by early fall. Also, reportedly promised an additional recovery of personnel issues: the press does not exclude the possibility that in an hour V president instead of the Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States Oleh Shamshur proposed for the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador to Russia Konstantin Gryshchenko. Anyway, the parliamentarians will be something to do. Not counting the main theme of the season - the presidential election.

All Passion - in the election

role and place of the forthcoming campaign in the fall season can not be underestimated. Most likely, the run to take a coveted presidential seat, or at least worthy to participate in the race, will be devoted to the lion's share (if not entirely) efforts politigrokov. Therefore, we should expect the situation when all said and done this or that politician is viewed through the prism of side and how it relates to elections. Click to continue »