Russia

The positive dynamics of U.S. stock indexes the previous day, was associated with restoration of the interest of market participants to oil and gas, thereby supporting the player bets on continued growth. For this reason, the direction of U.S. currency and government debt securities remained downward. Thus, a broad market index SP 500 broke a two-week decline, adding 0.3% by attempting to keep the current position within 3 trading days in a row.

Our opinion: The last trading session this week on the equity market is likely to be consistent with the overall dynamics of the two previous days, and grow in a downward direction. It is worth noting that the support in the form of 200 hour moving average, is a short-term benchmark for market participants, and the degree of closeness to it creates an ambiguous situation in which the mood of participants is likely to split into two camps with one side in its efforts to trying to bring down the penetration of inertial downward wave. At the same time trying the other half of the players-oriented rehabilitation can be successful if supported by macroeconomic statistics related to the sentiment index in August in the U.S., expected towards the end of the trading day.

Europe

European stock markets were stable on Thursday, as rising bank shares outweighed the decline in the beverage market, caused by the fact that Diageo has lowered the profit forecast. Nevertheless, the closure of European markets held in negative zone bidding. Credit Agricole shares added 5.6 percent after the largest retail bank in France reported on quarterly earnings that exceeded forecasts, thanks to good results in the investment unit and asset management. Quotes Diageo, the world's largest producer of alcoholic drinks fell by 2.96 percent as the company reduced its profit forecast for the current year due to the global downturn, although its annual profit rose 10 percent.

Asia

Asian markets show the dynamics of differently directed against the backdrop of positive results of Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd. and Dell Inc. surpassed the expectations of market participants, once again giving hope for the restoration of the world economy. Harvey Norman - Australia's largest retailer of consumer electronics industry grew by 17% at the auction in Sydney. Acer Inc. - The third largest producer of computer equipment rose by 3,5% against a background of increasing brokerage recommendations. Casio Computer Co. - Rose by 8,5% in trading in Tokyo after a message appears stating that the company integrates the production of mobile phones from NEC Corp. and Hitachi Ltd.

U.S.

The American stock market on Thursday closed in positive territory, having played a decrease in the beginning of the session due to a rise in price of oil, as well as the successes of theaviation and financial sectors. The main stock market barometer of the U.S., the index of DJIA, grew up during the eighth consecutive session after the stock aircraft builder Boeing Co., Which added 8.4 per cent due to the message that the 787 Dreamliner aircraft by the end of the year made its first flight. In the first three weeks of session, shares rose in early trading, but by the end declined. However, this model proved to be irrelevant to the end of the week, when delineated against the backdrop of the rise in demand for paper-oil sector. On Thursday, U.S. light crude rose $ 1.06 to $ 72.49 per barrel. Promotions ConocoPhillips prices increased by 0,3 percent. Investors are once again interested in distressed financial companies. Papers of insurance company American International Group Inc surged almost 27 percent after the new CEO Robert Benmosh indicated his reluctance to sell assets.

Closure Trading ADR GDR in the western areas has been mostly positive.

Prices are per 1 share

* ratio of closing price of receipts on U.S. exchanges and Europe to the closing price of shares on the MICEX.

Recommendation: From the main macroeconomic statistics suggest note on personal income and spending in July, as well as the University of Michigan sentiment index. The data will be published in the 16-30 and 17-55 Moscow time.

Click to continue »

Published yesterday, the revised data on U.S. GDP for the second quarter were better than forecast: market participants are expected to fall 1.5%, in fact, it was only 1%. At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the states for the week fell slightly less than forecast: up to 570 thousand against 565 thousand expected, but the tendency in any case positive.

Today is expected to yield a large number of macroeconomic statistics, including the revised UK GDP for 2 nd quarter (12.30 Moscow time), the index of business climate in the euro area in August (13.00 Moscow time), personal income /spending and core consumer price index for July in the U.S. (16.30 Moscow time), as well as the index of consumer confidence in the University of Michigan in August (17.55 Moscow time).

The encouraging data of the American Statistical overseas stock indexes continue to grow. On Thursday, the Dow Jones index closed in positive territory at 0.4%, S P500 - 0.3%. Their futures now traded in the 0-second mark. But oil prices went up by 3%, quotes, Brent and Light Sweet again came to the mark of 72.50 dollars per barrel. Eurodollar traded at around 1.4360.

Today, Russia's stock market in the first half of the day are expected to purchase a wide range of securities, primarily commodity. Likely continue to rise and paper telecom. It is possible that during the day the bulls once again try to overcome the resistance level 1100p. the RTS index and 1130p. on MICEX. In the case of breakdown of these levels, the following objectives will be: 1200p. (RTS) and 1230p. (MICEX).

Today Board of Directors of the RTS it was decided to extend the daily trading session on the Stock Exchange to 18.45 Moscow time. Thus, from August 28 to the primary trading session in all the markets will take place from 10.30 to 18.45, and an evening trading session (on the RTS Standard and FORTS) - from 19.00 to 23.50.

Click to continue »

recommend you wait a period of high volatility in the markets in the money

the markets volatility remains high, supported by the uncertainty of further movement in currency and commodity platforms. The fact that the future movement will be very strong - no one in doubt. Accordingly, increasing the risk to be in a position that is opposite to the general movement. Therefore, we recommend that investors are not willing to take higher risk to go to cash and wait out the tense moment in the money. Join the new movement is always possible to catch, especially since it does not end one day. Yesterday evening, after the close of trading on the MICEX quotation for Brent oil futures made a rapid off from the mark of $ 70 per barrel. Now oil is trading at $ 2 per barrel higher than it was yesterday. Accordingly, there are all preconditions for the opening of 1.5-2%-s gepom top of Russia's stock market. In addition, the chance of hourly charts of shares of oil companies' bullish divergence of MACD, which could lead to a massive growth market.

Levels 1100 and 1130 points on the MICEX Index, which still remains a key technical marks.

Click to continue »

Yesterday

Russia's stock market has been the third straight session, closing lower. As a result of trades on the MICEX index fell 1,79% - to 1080.05 points and the RTS index - on 0,15% to 1,070.49 points. The level of resistance in the vicinity of 1130 points on the MICEX remains untouched. As a result of yesterday's auction, we see that the selling pressure gradually increases. In conjunction with the fall in oil prices to near the minimum marks of August, as well as the consolidation of the indexes on the American exchanges Russia's market this could threaten the continuation of a downward movement.

Data on unemployment and GDP the U.S. were better than expected, but the positive reaction of the market quickly dried up. Activity of bears on domestic exchanges has increased along with the opening of trading in the U.S..

U.S. Market

Trades in the U.S. on Thursday resulted in the growth of stock indices on the background of low trading volumes. The Dow Jones rose 8 th session in a row. This is the longest period of uninterrupted growth in the index since April 2007. The main volume on the NYSE continues natorgovyvat on known successful companies - the ridge of the American economy: Citigroup inc., Fannie May, Freddie Mac, Bank of America.

From the first minutes of trading leading indicators of U.S. stock market began a sheer drop, despite the encouraging data on U.S. gross domestic product in II quarter. The fall ended at 1,015 points on the SP 500 index, which launched a massive closing of short positions that brought the American indexes in a light plus.

In recent years the stock market rather peculiar reaction to the positive macroeconomic news. If more recently they have caused the rapid growth of indexes, it is sometimes quite opposite results. This is due to the fact that signs of improvement in the economy may give the Fed an opportunity to move to tighten monetary policy to prevent inflation spiral, which, according to experts, undoubtedly happen in connection with massive infusions of money into the economy in crisis. Thus, improvements in macroeconomic performance increases the likelihood of higher interest rates, and this may cause rollback indices.

Oil

Oil prices on Thursday closed a little grown up on rising stock market and the weakening U.S. dollar.

At the end of trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange front-month October futures for light sweet crude rose 1.06 dollars, or 1.5%, to 72.49 dollars per barrel. Quotations of futures for Brent crude on the ICE rose 86 cents to 71.65 dollars per barrel.

Asia

Asian stock sites are now showing the growth of major indices due to the positive statements Dell and the outcome of trades in the U.S., where the Dow Jones index rose 8 th session in a row. Also, the optimism of players affected the yen, which is slightly weaker against the U.S. dollar. Stand out of the speakers, only China, where the Shanghai stock exchange recorded a strong drop in quotations.

Against this backdrop, the Japanese Nikkei adds a little more than 0,3%, the index of wide market Topix - 0,4%. Korean Kospi reduced by 0,3%. Chinese CSI 300 INDEX fell more than 3%.

Today

External background before opening the bidding in Russia - a moderately positive:

• American indices closed in positive territory;

• Quotations consolidated WTI crude is above $ 72;

• Futures on U.S. indexes are traded in small minus;

• Asian sites demonstrate raznopravlennuyu dynamics.

Based on the above factors, we expect the opening of trading small gepom up. Bulls for the past month, you can not take the mark of 1,130 points, the MICEX Index, which indicates that increased sales at strong levels of resistance. The market has already fed up good news, as evidenced by the reaction to positive data on GDP in the U.S., after which U.S. indexes fell more than 1%.

In the current situation, we continue to recommend investors to be prudent with purchases, as not exclude a strong downward correction in the near future, which can occur suddenly in the background of the deteriorating macroeconomic situation.

Click to continue »