Tomorrow will probably rally on the shares of the Savings Bank will continue

In the stock market situation has improved. As leaders of growth equities of oil and gas sector (1,67% RTS index on branch), the financial sector (1,95% RTS index on the branch). This serious positive news market is not received. The dynamics of the commodity market remains weak, Brent crude fell below $ 68 bet the ECB left at the current level, its level is seen as quite acceptable. In the context of the comments made J. Trichet to raise the forecast European growth rate change, indeed, seen yet premature. Statistics on applications for unemployment in the U.S. for the week also sprung a surprise. The number of applications remained at current levels, reaching 570 thousand, with expectations of 565 thousand

Note that a negative factor for the stock market is the continuing volatility in the currency market, namely, the consistent weakening of the ruble, continued for almost a week. At the same time a week earlier, on 28 August, the Bank of Russia recorded the increase in gold reserves at 6.6 billion dollars is likely that the current week for the Central Bank will not be so successful.

The main idea in the market today were shares of Sberbank, speculative activity which seems to have flowed from the telecommunications sector. Paper rose by 17:30 Moscow time for 6,46% to the closing of the previous day. Based on the lack of significant ideas and news on the market rally in the papers BEAC, is likely to continue. We also note that Russia's market undervalued compared with EM is about 30-40%, which also supports a separate positive on the market.

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Europe

European sites show positive dynamics. Pan-European FTSE Eurotop 100 index of 0.36%, Britain's FTSE 100 0.16%, the German Xetra Dax 0.23%, French Lyxor Cac 40 0.24%.

Euro rose in anticipation of the ECB rate decision and comments of the ECB head Trichet. ECB's refinancing rate remained at the previous level of 1%, it is expected that Trichet will improve forecasts of recovery of the European economy, given the increase in the II quarter GDP large economies of Germany and France. In addition to reducing the dollar's commodity markets has supported 5% growth in the Chinese market. The Chinese government intends to continue the course to stimulate the economy, on the eve of metals decreased significantly on the background data on the reduction of iron ore to China before the nine-month minimum. As leaders of growth stocks of mining companies. Lonmin 6.9%, Vedanta Resources 5%, Xstrata 4.4%, Anglo American. Grow and shares of the largest steel producers. Salzgitter 3.4%, Thyssenkrupp 3.2%.

yesterday were published minutes of the meeting of the Operations Committee on the open market the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed believes that the risk of even greater credit losses in the banking sector. Shares of banks declined. Nevertheless, shares of banks in Europe demonstrate the positive momentum. Royal Bank of Scotland 4%, Deutsche Bank 3.1%, Lloyds 2.9%.

Oil

Oil prices rise on local minima amid falling dollar. Data on stocks that were released yesterday, did not have much impact. Spot Brent $ 68, WTI $ 68.05. Futures increased by 0.5%.

The volume of crude oil in storage per week declined by 0.4 million barrels. and amounted to 343.4 million barrels. Analysts expected decline of oil reserves by 1.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.0 million, is expected to decline by 1.4 million barrels. Inventories of distillates rose by 1.2 million, expected reduction in stocks of distillates by 0.6 million barrels.

Russia

The market opened higher and continued to grow. External background to the opening there is a positive. China grew by 5.5%, and U.S. oil futures have risen. MICEX 15:32 due to technical problems is not working. At 15:30 Moscow time the MICEX index would add 2.09%, RTS index 1.96%. Trading volume on the MICEX stock market of 36 billion rubles., Slightly above average levels.

In leaders of growth stocks of gold producers. 7.2% of Polyus Gold, Polymetal 3.2%. In the wake of new fears about the likely second wave of recession has increased the gold in the U.S. shares of gold producer Newmont Mining soared by 9.5%. Shares steel companies after rising prices for base metals. Severstal 2%, MMC Norilsk Nickel 1.1%, 1% MMK, NLMK 0.6%. Againstthe background of positive dynamics of oil futures rising shares of oil and gas sector. 2.4% Rosneft, Lukoil 1%, Gazprom 0.9%, Surgutneftegas 0.7%. Good demand seen in the shares of Sberbank, which grew by 5%.

Forecast

Day again interest in terms of economic news and events. At 16:30 comment on the decision will give the head of the ECB Jean-Claude Trichet. Also at 16:30 there are data on the number of requests for unemployment benefits in the U.S., in 18:00 the index of business activity in the service sector ISM Services.

Traditionally a great influence on the currency, and, consequently, the raw materials, markets, Trichet will comment on the situation in the euro area economy and further policy ECB. If the dollar will rise, the oil will go below that would be another signal to sell. If comments will support the euro, the restoration of the oil market and stock sites will be even more rapid than the decline.

From a technical point of view, yesterday, the market briefly went below the level of support for 1080 points, today opened already above this level. Most likely, yet continue to consolidate in a very narrow range of 1080-1130 points, out of which will be accompanied by a very strong movement. In what direction will be very difficult to predict the output. Therefore recommend to reduce the risks and watch the market from the sidelines.

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At 16.00 Moscow time the price index value RGBI totaled 116.83. Compared with the previous day's close it had fallen to 0.14 § (0.12%). Trading volume on the market of government securities amounted to 31.54 billion rubles. RU000A0JQ623 Yield on bonds with maturity in December 2009 was 8% (0.15 percentage points), SU25064RMFS5 on bonds with maturity in January 2012 - 11.26% (0.01 percentage points) on the bonds SU25067RMFS8 with date maturity in October 2012 - 11.56% (-0.06 percentage points), SU25068RMFS6 on bonds with maturity in August 2014 - 12.12% (-0.02 percentage points), SU26199RMFS8 on bonds with maturity in July 2012 g. - 11.67% (-0.08 percentage points).

C corporate bonds concluded 687 deals amounting to 7643.46 million rubles. Yield on bonds VTB - 5 on the date of repayment in October 2013 was 11.03% (-0.19 percentage points), GazpromA13 of bonds with maturity in June 2012 - 10.4% (-0.14 percentage points) bonds AMETfin-01 from maturing in August 2013 - 16.56% (3.67 percentage points) on the bonds of MTS 04 with maturing in May 2014 - 13.03% (-0.06 percentage points) on the bonds IBRD 03obl with maturity in April 2013 - 15.85% (0.21 percentage points).

C sub-federal and municipal bonds signed 122 deals amounting to 1226.71 million rubles. Belgor2006 Yield on bonds with maturity in October 2011 was 13% (-2.34 percentage points), 5 SamarObl on bonds with maturity in December 2013 - 15.37% (-0.05 percentage points) on the bonds Mos.obl.8v with maturity in June 2013 - 16.44% (0.07 percentage points), the bonds MGor50-on with maturity in December 2011 - 12.72% (0.04 percentage points), bonds Tomsk.ob-4 with maturity in December 2011 - 16% (-0.13 percentage points).

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In the Bond Market You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trading on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market.

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Lukoil

trend	Short	Medium	Long-Term
	neutral	neutral	lowering
The level of support	1520 - 1540	1400 - 1470	1030 - 1160
Resistance	1600 - 1620	1740 - 1810	1950 - 2130
Recommendations	Bring to stop an application to market prices.
Notes	;

Norilsk Nickel

trend	Short	Medium	Long-Term
	neutral	neutral	lowering
The level of support	3200 - 3240	3160 - 3230	1770 - 2090
Resistance	3420 - 3460	3630 - 3760	4010 - 4370
Recommendations	Bring to stop an application to market prices.
Notes	;

Rostelecom

trend	Short	Medium	Long-Term
	neutral	neutral	lowering
The level of support	159.30 - 160.40	154.50 - 157.20	132.60 - 141.60
Resistance	165.30 - 166.40	171.20 - 175.50	179.80 - 188.30
Recommendations	Bring to stop an application to market prices.
Notes	;

Gazprom

trend	Short	Medium	Long-Term
	neutral	neutral	lowering
The level of support	154.00 - 155.90	149.40 - 155.70	100.30 - 115.40
Resistance	163.30 - 165.10	180.00 - 185.70	192.80 - 216.00
Recommendations	Bring to stop an application to market prices.
Notes	possible closure of the window - 162.33

Mosenergo

trend	Short	Medium	Long-Term
	improvement	improvement	lowering
The level of support	1.960 - 1.980	1.620 - 1.720	1.380 - 1.530
Resistance	2.100 - 2.120	2.260 - 2.430	2.450 - 2.630
Recommendations	Bring to stop an application to market prices.
Notes	paper locally bought out.

Surgutneftegaz

trend	Short	Medium	Long-Term
	neutral	neutral	lowering
The level of support	23.80 - 24.20	23.50 - 24.40	14.60 - 17.30
Resistance	25.80 - 26.10	28.60 - 30.00	32.20 - 37.70
Recommendations	No position.
Notes	;

Savings Bank

trend	Short	Medium	Long-Term
	improvement	neutral	lowering
The level of support	46.70 - 47.50	44.40 - 45.90	24.50 - 28.50
Resistance	50.60 - 51.40	51.30 - 52.40	55.10 - 62.00
Recommendations	Keep.
Notes	;	;	;

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Stocks

Maintain long positions in ordinary shares of Gazprom (GAZP RX) with the immediate goal of 175.0 rubles.

remain open long positions yesterday in the ordinary shares of Gazprom Neft (SIBN RX) with the immediate goal of 123.5 rubles.

Preserve yesterday increased long positions in ordinary shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel (GMKN RX) with the immediate goal in 3700 rubles.

remain open long positions yesterday in ordinary shares Volgatelekoma (VTEL RX) with the immediate goal of 70.0 rubles.

remain open long positions yesterday in the ordinary shares of OGK-2 (OGK2 RX) with the immediate goal of 0,830 rubles.

To close the remaining short positions in the September futures on the RTS index (VEU9) in the case of reduction of quotations to 1000-1020 points.

Raw

increase their long positions in the October oil futures varieties WTI (CLV9) in the case of reduction of quotations to $ 66.50-67.00 with the immediate goal of $ 74.50 and the stop-loss on a mark of $ 65.30.

increase their long positions in the October futures for natural gas (NGV9) in the case of reduction of quotations to $ 2.45-2.50 from the immediate goal of $ 3.80 and the stop-loss on a mark of $ 2.40

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Day technical rebound

While the world markets the main concern comes from the region of Southeast Asia and, more specifically - from China, the financial authorities who yesterday sent a number of large enterprises provisions authorizing not to execute contracts for transactions with derivatives in the OTC markets for raw materials from a high risk of such operations. While these risks are not realized, but the tension continues. Support for many of Russia's securities, particularly the banking sector may have a weakening dollar. Savings Bank yesterday and both looked better than the market that some analysts attribute of a major investor in America, actively reducing the credit risk on CDS Savings Bank. The situation in the commodity sectors is seen neutral, can jump the most volatile securities, which yesterday suffered more from the vendors. During the day the markets will influence the index of activity in the eurozone and Britain, and retail sales for July, the ECB has now decided on a rate (of interest will be comments of financial powers of Europe). On the U.S. market closed trading on Wednesday, leading indexes lower on the background of macroeconomic news, since the data of the Ministry of Commerce, under which the volume of industrial orders in the U.S. in July grew by 1.3% compared to the previous month and amounted to $ 355.46 billion in waiting growth on 2,3%, not pleased investors. Rate for June was revised upward. As it turned out, it has increased by 0,9%, ze by 0,4%, as previously reported.

little better than the market adopted the report of U.S. Department of Labor on the labor productivity of the II quarter of 2009, the first year, as seasonally adjusted figure rose by 6,5% compared with the previous quarter. Note that while the economy as a whole, except for agricultural industries, labor productivity rose in quarterly terms by 6,6%, and annual - on 1,9%, which was better represented earlier in August, preliminary data, the estimated increase productivity by 6,3%.

As a result of trades rose noticeably securities of companies whose profitability depends substantially on the state of the U.S. economy. 1,1% subsided paper multi-industrial conglomerate General Electric and the action of one of the world's largest media companies Walt Disney. In the minus-up and shares were trading companies of the financial sector. Equity Wells Fargo Bank on the basis of trades dipped 0.5%, although that appears on the eve of the information that the bank is going to do a return borrowed during the peak of the crisis of public funds without resorting to such harmful for his quotation process, as additional issue of shares. At 1,9% and 1,3% respectively on the basis of trades sunk shares of banks JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. More optimistic trading ended for the gold-mining companies, helped by the rising gold prices. In particular, at 9.3% in the increase in prices of trades in shares of major U.S. companies that profile Newmont Mining Co.

The oil futures market quotations Light Sweet and Brent continued to fall yesterday, dropping below the level of $ 68 a barrel. Also yesterday, the eve of release of official data on the U.S. Department of Energy stockpiles of crude oil and derivatives of energy at the end of August, the oil market did not take any active action. Among the active factors affecting the oil market, it should be noted decrease in share indexes on European exchanges that were neskolkoskompensirovano depreciation of the dollar in the currency market Forex.

Oil prices initially rose after the U.S. Department of Energy data showed a reduction in oil reserves in the U.S. last week to 400 000 barrels, as well as more significant than expected, reducing gasoline inventories. Inventories of the fuel fell by 3 million barrels. Generally, oil and gasoline rose for most of the year, as demand remained weak because of economic recession, but in August, stocks began to decline. Nevertheless, demand continues to be universally low, even in spite of the fact that demand for gasoline has increased over the latest reporting week. Americans in recent years make less use of cars after a weekend on the occasion of Labor Day, which reduces the importance of gasoline for the price of oil.

Today in Russia the market after a positive opening, we expect slight movement upwards during the day, having the nature of a technical rebound. Especially active are banking and telecommunications securities.

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