Possible scenarios of behavior of the futures on the RTS index in the near future:

Objectives futures on the RTS if it's:

1) The green horizontal line - 75 000 points on the RTS Index futures.

a. 7 - 14 trading days.

Objectives for RTS Index futures for its growth:

2) red horizontal line - 116 000 points on RTS Index futures.

time to achieve this goal:

a. 5 - 7 trading days.

3) Blue upward sloping line - 120 000 points on the RTS Index futures.

time to achieve this goal:

a. 14 trading days.

Recommendations for today:

1) sell at a penetration level of 112 000 points. Stop - Loss put at the level of 112 500 points.

2) Buy at 96 500 points. Stop - Loss put at the level of 95 500 points.

Evening session on FORTS September 2, 2009:

At the end of evening trading futures on the RTS index rose 700 points. The main part of the session was held in a narrow range of the scale 500 points. Trading volume - below average. It should be noted that these trades fully repeated the dynamics of the American market.

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Until something went wrong

Russia

Russia's stock market yesterday lost part of its capitalization, moving the oil price and foreign trading platforms: RTS index fell by 1,9% and the MICEX index rose by 2.56%. Trading volume on the RTS stock exchange was $ 3.05 billion, of which $ 1.73 billion were in the tools of the derivatives market, the MICEX Stock Exchange Section to gain by selling 140.9 billion, turnover in the index amounted to 52.1 billion rubles.

again better than the market proved to be the paper of the telecommunications sector (1.54% for the respectivesectoral indices of the exchange MICEX). Many experts see this as a positive signal, but it should be noted and the opposite point of view: very often the company been growing at the final stage of upward movement.

Europe

indices of the Old World have fallen by an average of 0,5%, cooling after a six-month rally, and especially the take-off the summer months continues. The maximum, which shows the macroeconomic statistics, the signs of stabilizing, but not the expected rapid recovery, the corporate sector does not boast of good is coming next reporting season, and in general, September is historically not the most prosperous month for equity markets.

America

indices of the New World could be said to have fallen 0,1-0,3%, although more such change fit into the format of market noise. Not get in macroeconomic statistics and corporate sector to please players who are both hoping for a rapid recovery, as not believe.

Generally, global stock markets haunting specter of a possible bankruptcy of a large financial institution or even an entire country (mostly of course means someone from Eastern Europe). But if the problem of half a thousand small and medium-sized U.S. banks like nobody cares, then the financial problems of only one large player can seriously affect the emotions, even when that is no sane regulator will not allow the repetition of the history of Lehman Brothers. And another important point: while the government officials might and main assure the public that the hardest part is over, government aid programs have been slow to clot. Moreover, once the government goes with my money, the problem immediately returned.

raw materials, currency and so on

industrial metals on the auctions in London continued to decline. Gold jumped to $ 975 - in the face of continuing monetary issue of the American dollar, the eternal value are very, very interesting tool for investment. Moreover, many experts predict a rise of quotations of precious metal to $ 1300 towards the end of the year, further spurring investors to buy.

Oil prices have reacted quite calmly to the data on stocks that are suddenly not much different from projections: Brent crude futures traded below $ 67.75, WTI futures brand costs about $ 68.25. It is gratifying that the discount of Brent relative to WTI is restored - the demand from China, who moved up North Sea grade, at the time failed to meet expectations (and China does not hurry to justify any expectation hanging on him), and the situation has returned to the status quo .

Statistics and Reporting

Thursday takes over the baton from the environment in terms of abundance flow of economic news: the interval between 11-55 and 12-30 (Moscow time) and then at 18-00 (Moscow time) leave the indices of business activity in services for individual eurozone countries Britain and the United States. At 15-45 (Moscow time), the ECB will announce its decision on interest rates (changes are not expected), and 16-30 (Moscow time), Jean-Claude Trichet will comment on the actions led by his agency. Also in the 16-30 (Moscow time) published data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States.

Today OGK-6 should be held accountable for the first half of 2009 according to IFRS - the data may be interesting in the context of a wave of optimism that the recent paper demonstrating the electricity sector. In general, the WGC-6 looks weak compared with its wholesale generation counterparts. For example, according to the coefficient Mcap /IC, securities companies have a 120% growth potential compared with Russia's counterparts).

Forecast

most likely to Russia's stock market opens today, quite exactly, on the background of neutral oil and foreign trading platforms. Yesterday bulls behaved very passively, since the specific reasons for any action was not possible today in the morning followed by an attempt to win back some lost ground.

From the perspective of technical analysis today and tomorrow are quite important because there is a struggle for the monthly moving average and the rising level of short-term support. Chance of winning are like bulls, at whose side a colossal monetary liquidity, and bears, supported by a certain overbought and fundamental factors.

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On the eve of Russia's stock market showed another volatile session, which resulted in the MICEX index closed in negative territory, which mainly contributed to lower quotations of oil, as well as the negative macroeconomic statistics on the U.S. economy. After our closing situation on external sites slightly deteriorated. U.S. indexes since we could not resist closing in positive territory and went into negative territory, skorrektirvovavshis the levels at which Russia's market was closed for half a percentage point, in turn, S P500 gone from resistance 1000 points, while maintaining the technical capacity reduction. Oil continued to take positions, despite the good statistics on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products, the pressure on the quotes provided stability of the dollar and the negative statistics on the labor market, published yesterday. Futures on the U.S. indices, despite a positive morning, traded below the levels at which Russia's stock market closed.

neutralize the negative traditional benchmarks may increase the index on the Chinese media that China's aluminum consumption will increase by 4% this year, while earlier predicted zero growth since the first seven months of imports of aluminum has increased by 2 times. Danae news support quotes metals in today's session, which in turn positively affect the quotation of shares of the metallurgical sector, which were significantly resold during yesterday's session. Technically, shares of Russia's metallurgical sector have not kept on the eve of the powerful levels of support that can make the resistance during today's session, so cut position on the shares of Severstal is the level of 21-dnevnyo moving average around 220 rubles. By MMC Norilsk Nickel the level of 3360 rubles.

Given the setof external signals the opening of the market to see neutral. Further dynamics will be determined by the situation on foreign markets, in the case of positive market may dominate purchase. Reduce positions in shares worth before the publication of data on the euro area, namely, before the data on retail sales. Outcome of the meeting of the ECB and Trichet's comments traditional, increase volatility in the currency and commodity markets. On the outcome of the day will be the impact on the statistics of the U.S., but considering tomorrow's report on the labor market would recommend to reduce positions on shares in the event of a positive.

Technically, at the start of trading session, the MICEX Index closing levels near the open environment, and then can test the resistance in the immediate area 61,8%-term correction of Fibonacci of the maximum annual level (1085 points). The main corridor of traffic on the MICEX to see within the 1075-1090 points.

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