September 4th, 2009

...now browsing by day

 

Indicator RTS-2 on the basis of trading on Friday rose by 0.69% to 999.98 points

Friday, September 4th, 2009

MICEX today to 12:30 Moscow time increased by 1,56% and has made thus 1 110.77 points.

In leaders bull trend in this were preferred and common stock of the Savings Bank, went up by 6,16% and 3,09% respectively. Sensitive information related to the dynamics of this quote in the media do not seem to appear. Against this background, it seems that such a change in prices of shares of the issuer reflects the emergence of the market sufficiently large investors that investing in Russia's stock segment want at the moment to avoid industrial risks.

The worst of the market this morning traded preferred shares of North-West Telecom, Sibirtelecom, and ordinary shares Urasvyazinforma, fallen in price on 1,72%, 1,89% and 1,70%, quotations which seem to'd play technical overbought , formed by them in recent weeks.

In addition, similar to the evolution of the capitalization of the former leaders of Russia's growth stock segment seems to be the cause of expanding the range of investment stock market operators of Russia.

In the short run there may be some decrease in activity of purchases on domestic and world market shares in connection with the important data released today the U.S. Department of Labor. However, in the end, the further growth of stock indices of Russia in the future the next few weeks is possible.

RTS index today on the results of the auctions has decreased on 0,98% and was, thus, 1,063.57 points. Indicator RTS-2, by contrast, grew by 0.69% to 999.98 Fri

In the market outsiders in the last trading day of the week, obviously, were the stocks of Russia's fuel and energy, price trends which have shown themselves to reflect the volatility in oil futures segment.

On the other hand, once again looked noticeably better than the market quotations of domestic banks. On the market there were rumors that Sberbank of Russia may be planning to placement of ADR.

The American stock market, after falling at the opening of trading, in the last hours was relatively active to rise, though, judging by the dynamics of quotations of gold, in the global investment industry feel significant nervousness.

However, perhaps the outcome of the meeting G20, which began today, yet will support Russia and world market shares. Certain statements and actions of the governing structures of the leading economies, published recently, in general, can hope to realize such a scenario.

log in and see the material;;

Your score will be the first!


Analyst Ratings

Click to continue »

The dollar on the interbank market came close to a mark 8,90 UAH / USD.

Friday, September 4th, 2009

the interbank market the dollar third consecutive day continued to rise in price an average of 10 cents compared to the previous auction. At the same time it should be noted that the morning quotes the U.S. currency exceeding evening.

According to the company InterBiznesKonsalting morning trading on the dollar opened a sharp growth of quotations - 8,912-8,9745 UAH /USD. But by midday the U.S. currency fell to 8,9035-8,927 UAH /USD. And by the end of trading it fell to quote 8,8725-8,895 UAH /USD.

A similar pattern was observed in theEuropean currency. If the morning on the interbank euro traded at 12,722-12,7905 grn /euros, by the middle of the day it fell to quotes 12,7155-12,742 grn /euros, and the closure reached 12,658-12,6935 grn /euros.

In turn, Russian Ruble also followed the dollar and euro. At the opening of tenders his quotes were 0,2814-0,2839 UAH /USD., By noon, they declined slightly - to 0,2814-0,2826 UAH /USD. Click to continue »

16.30 possible large-scale movement of data on Nonfarm Payrolls

Friday, September 4th, 2009

  Yesterday, the Dow Jones index closed by growth at 0.69% and Shanghai index today rose as 0.58%. Yesterday's data on an index of purchasing managers in the services the U.S. in August again came good, with growth of 46.4 to 48.4. Thus, all the still unreleased forward looking data for August show a positive, so that, contrary to the index ADP, today, all signs should go good Nonfarm Payrolls. On the other hand, data on applications for unemployment seems to be not encouraging, the last month and a half weekly applications out in the range from -600 to -550 thousand thousand Meanwhile, the euro-dollar marches around the middle of trading range over the last days, so that intrigue before the data is stored on all 100%. Technically the picture is absolutely neutral, we can assume the possibility of a dvuhfigurnogo jump up and down dvuhfigurnogo failure. Recall that all the past three times the euro showed a strong decline in the data, despite the fact that in two cases Payrolls came out better than forecast, but sold the euro against the initial reaction. Click to continue »

As soon as the market will go with Russia fears of lower oil prices and U.S. indices would be available for purchase

Friday, September 4th, 2009

If you have to bank 10 million rubles. that's your headache, if the 10 billion rubles. - Is a headache bank

Russia's stock indexes finish week in the red zone, thoughtful players sold the paper in the morning, not taking the risks to American statistics. The controversial U.S. data was properly received by the market. Unemployment in the United States in August rose to 9.7% compared to 9,4% a month earlier, analysts had expected a smaller increase - up to 9,5%. The number of jobs in the U.S. economy in the past month fell by 216 thousand, an analyst predicted a significant reduction - to 230 thousand, however, for us the main lack of negative news. Once in Russia's stock market will go fears of lower oil prices and U.S. indices, would be available for purchase. Russia's paper in general are undervalued on the cash flows at current oil prices, and counterparts from other developing markets.

favorite of trading remains Sberbank, the most popular speculative idea. However, from a fundamental point of view is not so optimistic. And Sberbank's loan portfolio may present fall unpleasant surprises. It should be well aware that if you have to bank 10 million rubles. That's your headache, if the 10 billion rubles. - Is a headache bank. Gazprom has confirmed payment of Ukraine's gas supplies from Russia in August. Locally positive news for stocks of the gas holding. The main event next week will be a summit of OPEC. The next meeting of representatives of organizations will be on September 9 in Vienna. Perhaps maintaining current levels of prices for black gold on expectations of OPEC maintaining current production ceiling - 24.845 barrels per day. Current oil prices are satisfied with both suppliers and consumers.

auctions on Monday on our sites will be sluggish in the United States a day off. We believe that September, despite the known negative seasonality, would be better than the most pessimistic view.

log in and see the material;;

5; users rated material on 4,4.


Analyst Ratings

Click to continue »

IMF gave credit

Friday, September 4th, 2009

Capital International Monetary Fund (IMF) will increase significantly due to the allocation of EU countries additional funding and purchase of bonds by China Fund

of European finance ministers agreed to increase from EUR75 billion to EUR125 billion contribution to the EU's anti-crisis fund the IMF. Contribution of Germany, which will allocate funds from its foreign currency reserves through the Bundesbank, will be increased almost twice - from EUR15, 2 billion ($ 20 billion), up to EUR25, 03 billion ($ 35.7 billion). France will provide the IMF EUR18, 45 billion ($ 26.3 billion). Britain expressed its willingness to increase its contribution by $ 11 billion (with $ 15 billion to $ 26 billion).

Some observers explain the decision of the leading European countries to increase contributions to fund the IMF's anti-crisis because of their previous contributions from the European Union did not meet their formal quotas. The first deputy director of IMF John Lipsky said in an interview with Radio Bloomberg, that the ongoing obligations of the European Union in the IMF substantially below the voting quota in the fund. If the EU wanted to participate, respectively, available quotas, this would imply the need to increase their commitments, - said Lipsky.

There is no data about the deteriorating situation in the world economy, on the contrary, it is getting better. Accordingly, the need to increase the IMF's resources, I do not see. Especially in light of budget deficits of most EU countries, due to the costs of promoting the national economy, -- said Fortis Bank economist Nick Kunis.

At the same time, according to strategist Julius Baer Christian Gattikera, the unexpected generosity of the leading EU countries could be explained by the desire to support the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the strengthening of the crisis which could affect the economies of Western Europe. Click to continue »

Asia: rise in price of metals contributed to the growth indices

Friday, September 4th, 2009

 

Friday, September 4, almost all the region's stock markets closed in positive zone. The main positive factors should include the appreciation of oil and metals, and also surpassed analysts' expectations of growth in the August index of business activity in the ISM non-productive sector in the United States from 46,4 to 48,4 points. Negative on the market have brought news of a downgrade of securities the world's largest operator of shopping everyday Seven I Holdings of shares and reduction of Hynix Semiconductor.

Following the auction, the regional index MSCI Asia Pacific rose by 0,1%. Australia SP /ASX 200 added 0.13% of the cost, the Chinese CSI 300 has become harder to 0,82%, and the Indian BSE 30 (Sensex) got stronger on 1,89%. Leader growth was Hong Kong's Hang Seng H-shares, an increase of 2,9%. Not supported by the overall positive dynamics of only the stock markets of Vietnam, South Korea and Japan.

Shares the world's largest operator of shopping everyday Seven I Holdings fell 2.3% after Merrill Lynch analysts lowered the rating of securities companies with buy to neutral. Quotes Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma, yesterday expressed a desire to acquire a controlling stake in U.S. manufacturer of pharmaceuticals Sepracor for $ 2.6 billion, fell by 6,1%. Specialists Merrill Lynch lowered the rating of the shares of the pharmacist with a neutral to worse than the market, referring to the expiry of patents on some drugs Sepracor.

Market capitalization of the second-largest global producer of computer memory card Hynix Semiconductor fell by 5,7%. Daewoo Securities analysts lowered recommendations for securities of companies with buy to hold. In their view, Hynix's stock price at the moment fully reflect the potential improvement of the financial situation of the company.

Gold shares recovered in connection with the rising costs of metal. Thus, the price of futures on gold during trading in New York reached a six-month high of $ 999.50 per ounce against a background of growing demand for precious metals, which customers see as alternative investments in connection with the cheapening of the dollar. Quotes of the largest gold mining company in China, Zijin Mining rose by 3,8%, and the Australian paper Avoca Resources moved to 2,7%.

Quotes of the Japanese Daiwa Securities Group fell by 6,1%, after Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group announced its intention to close the joint brokerage.

Shares in China's largest producer of lead Henan Yuguang Gold Lead soared 10% against the increased cost of metal is 3,3%. Paper Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet weight by at 7,2%.

The market capitalization of China Resources increased by 4,8%. Analysts JPMorgan upgraded the rating of securities companies with neutral to better market, referring to the increase in its profits from the sale of beverages in more than two times. Specialists Nomura also raised their recommendations on shares of China Resources to buy.

Papers of the Australian fund that owns a portfolio of infrastructure assets, Babcock Brown Infrastructure Group have fallen by 22%. According to company representatives, program to sell assets would be insufficient to repay the debt, which expires in 2010.

Values of the basic indexes on closing are resulted in the table:

Index Country Closing (items) Delta day (items) Change day (%) value at beginning of year (the last closing in 2008) Change YTD
SP /ASX 200 Australia 4,435.50 5.90 0.13% 3722.30 19.16%
All Ordinaries Australia 4,442.70 9.80 0.22% 3659.30 21.41%
Ho Chi Minh Vietnam 528.49 -12.32 -2.28 % 315.62 67.45%
Hang Seng Hong Kong 20,318.62 556.94 2.82% 14387.48 41.22%
Hang Seng H-shares Hong Kong 11,760.55 331.34 2.9% 7891.80 49.02%
BSE 30 (Sensex) India 15,689.12 290.79 1.89% 9647.31 62.63%
Jakarta Composite Indonesia 2,322.74 0.49 0.02% 1355.41 71.37%
Shanghai A-shares China 3,003.19 17.42 0.58% 1911.79 57.09%
CSI 300 China 3,077.14 25.18 0.82% 1817.72 69.29%
KLSE Composite Malaysia 1,178.74 5.08 0.43% 876.75 34.44%
NZSE 50 New Zealand 3,098.32 6.75 0.218% 2715.71 14.09%
Karachi 100 Pakistan 9,002.67 185.07 2.1% 5865.01 53.50%
Straits Times Singapore 2,622.69 24.33 0.94% 1761.56 48.88 %
Bangkok SET Thailand 477.03 1.92 0.4% 449.96 6.02%
TAIEX Taiwan 7,153.13 48.48 0.68% 4591.22 55.80%
PSEi Philippines 2,553.96 27.68 0.99% 1872.85 36.37%
Colombo All-Shares Sri Lanka 2,630.77 3.77 0.14% 1503.02 75.03%
KOSPI South Korea 1,608.90 -4.63 -0.29% 1124.47 43.08%
Nikkei 225 Japan 10,187.11 -27.53 -0.27% 8859.56 14.98%
Topix Japan 935.74 -7.03 -0.75% 859.24 8.90%

 

Click to continue »

Now pay attention to data on the number of new jobs outside agriculture in August in the U.S.

Friday, September 4th, 2009

Russia

Financial performance reporting a number of trading companies in the U.S., became the main catalyst for growth in the U.S. stock market indices, thereby interrupting the sequence of four lower market. Costco - one of the leading representatives of the wholesale trade increased by 8,6% after the publication of positive results of the company abroad. Company Gap - garment premium added, the order of 7,6% to the closing of trading after the expected fall in sales was much weaker than expectations of market participants. Alcoa Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. became leaders of growth up to the day in the calculation of the index, Dow Jones, after a similar dynamics of trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Despite the fact that the bulk of Russia's highly liquid stocks continue to movement within the boundaries of trade corridors, the picture on the weekly chart of the MICEX Index, as well as leading stocks within it reserve the downside risks. However, the daily picture reduces the risks of data, increasing again the probability of moving laterally, as the most likely scenario for the situation. This variant mainly contributes to the situation on the oil market where the price of trying to get back above the level of support for the shattered pieces ascending triangle in the main corridor to the side boundaries 60 and 73 dollars per barrel Crude Light. However, in the case of an unsuccessful attempt to return to higher levels of support - $ 69, with a further breakdown of the 50 day moving average, continuing a downward trend will cause for a similar movement in Russia's bid. It is worth noting that bearish divergence on the weekly basis, between the Stochastic Oscillator and the price of the oil market continues to persist.

Europe

European stock markets fell on the basis of trading Thursday because of falling energy and pharmaceutical sectors. Pan-European index of blue chip FTSEurofirst 300 dropped to 0.04 per cent to 950.03 points. Indicative European index decreased for the fourth consecutive day, but this year has added 14 percent. The largest decline was registered in the quotations of the pharmaceutical sector. Paper AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Roche Holding and Sanofi-Aventis fell 0,6-2,2 percent. The banking sector has demonstrated growth: Indexes HSBC, Lloyds, Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS, Deutsche Postbank and KBC Groep added from 0,3 to 9,9 percent.

FTSE-100 -0,43%
DAX -0,35%
CAC40 -0,55%

Asia

Asian shares are multidirectional dynamics during today's trading with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, demonstrating the negative dynamics against a background of lower brokerage recommendation for shares of Seven I Holdings Co. and Hynix Semiconductor Inc. in the opposite direction of the rally in the metal market. Seven I-leading operator of chain stores within reach fell by 2.3% in trading in Tokyo. Hynix Semiconductor Inc. - The world's second largest producer of components for computer equipment lost almost 6% in trading in Seoul. Zijin Mining Group Co. - The largest gold miners in China rose by 3,8% after the price of the metal rose to a six-month highs.

NIKKEI 225 -27.53 -0.27%
HANG SENG INDEX 475.57 2.41%
SHANGHAI SE A SHARE INDX 17.42 0.58%
SHANGHAI SE B SHARE INDX 0.91 0.47%
KOSPI INDEX -4.63 -0.29%

U.S.

The American stock market on Thursday closed in positive territory, after which lasted for four sessions of decline due to optimistic data on retail sales and renewal in the service sector in the United States to reassure investors about the state of the world's largest economy. On Friday, to be published data on unemployment in the U.S. in August, which may shed light on the situation of the American economy. The financial sector this time was one of the leaders of growth. Equity Bank of America went up by 3.5 per cent, Citigroup - by 4,8 percent. The index of the banking sector as a whole has increased by 2.3 percent. Index traditional sector of the U.S. economy Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.69 percent to 9.344,61 points. The broader index Standard Poor s 500 gained 0.85 percent to 1.003,24 points. Technological Nasdaq Composite Index rose to 0.82 percent to 1.983,20 points. Compared with the level of 12-year low, marked at the close of the New York Stock Exchange on March 9, SP index rose by almost 48 per cent.

DJIA 63.94 0.69%
SP 500 8.49 0.85%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 16.13 0.82%
NASDAQ 100 11.70 0.73%

Closure Trading ADR GDR in the western areas was of multidirectional nature.

Gazprom 0,83%
Rosneft -0,81%
Surgutneftegaz 0,13%
Norilsk Nickel 1,45%
Rostelecom -2,53%
Gazpromneft -0,81%

Prices are per 1 share

* ratio of closing price of receipts on U.S. exchanges and Europe to the closing price of shares on the MICEX.

Recommendation: From the main macroeconomic statistics suggest note on the numberof new jobs outside agriculture in August in the U.S., as well as the unemployment rate for the same period. The data will be published in 16-30 Moscow time.

log in and see the material;;

1; user rated material at 2.


Analyst Ratings

Click to continue »

Gold futures consolidated after reaching local maxima, which increases the chances of breakdown of the $ 1000

Friday, September 4th, 2009

Shopping at the opening Friday led to an area 108 500 points on futures on RTS Index (RTS-9.09, RIU9). The current situation can be regarded as a continuation of working out the range of 103 000-112 000 points, or as the beginning of the rally.

We remain negative expectations for the market, andtherefore recommend to play for a fall. A good opportunity for sales is presented in the area of 110 000-112 000 points. Stop in this case can be placed above the 112 500 points.

In the case of a long positions recommend that you place the stop loss below 105 000, or 103 000 points.

futures on the euro-dollar (ED-9.09, EDU9) remain open recommendations short positions with a stop above 1.435-1.44. The purpose of sales - 1.42, 1.4.

Futures on the dollar-ruble (Si-9.09, SiU9) traded at around 31 600, where the possible purchase with a stop below 31 500 or 31 300. While the CBOT continues to move in the range 31 300-32 300.

futures oil varieties Brent (BR-9.09, BRU9) for speculative buy with a stop below $ 67. Upon reaching the district $ 69 recommend selling with a stop above $ 70, or $ 71,5.

gold futures (GOLD-9.09, GDU9) consolidates after reaching local maxima, which increases the chances of breakdown of the $ 1000. Stop long can be placed below $ 980 or $ 960. Speculatively possible discovery of short positions with a stop above $ 1000.

log in and see the material;;

1; user rated material at 2.


Analyst Ratings

Click to continue »

Press Service of NAC: Naftogaz has paid imported in August, Russia's gas

Friday, September 4th, 2009

National joint stock company (NAK) Naftogaz Ukraine timely and full payment for implemented bought in August by Russia's Gazprom natural gas, reported the press-service NAK.

Payment for August is fully implemented, - said the Head of Public Relations Naftogaz Valentin Zemlyanskii.

He did not specify other details.

Before Acting Minister of Finance of Ukraine Igor Umansky said that for the August delivery of NAC had to pay $ 667 million compared with $ 605 million that the company, according to Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, has paid for the July delivery.

According to Naftogaz, the volume of gas in July and August, about the same - about 3.3 billion cubic meters. m.

signed in January this year for the period up to 2019 gas contracts contain a clause take or pay. According to him, Naftogaz Ukraine has to buy at least 80% of the contracted for a year of natural gas, taking into account inherent in the purchase contract numbers mean this year at least 32 billion cubic meters. m, and from the next - a minimum of 41.6 billion cubic meters. m.

In the first half of Naftogaz Ukraine almost every month break an agreement for the delivery of the monthly purchases of natural gas by selecting it in less than specified, volumes. Click to continue »

Russia market continues to move in a narrow consolidation, out of which will be down rather than up

Friday, September 4th, 2009

On Thursday, the growth of quotations on the Asian markets has allowed Russia to try to win back market suffered a day earlier losses, the MICEX index in the first hours of trading gained more than 1% and rose to 1 090 points, while during the day, despite the rather sluggish external environment, returning to the mark 1 100 points, but could not keep her because of the adverse trading began in the United States. At the same time due to technical failure on the MICEX trading was halted with 15:32 to 17.00 IST. Following the session, the MICEX index was 1093.72 points (1.58%), the RTS 1 074.05 points (1.98%).

It should be noted that yesterday's increase in Russia's index would have been much more moderate, if not for a new round of rush of interest in the shares of Sberbank. Ordinary shares of the Bank (7.96% per day), breaking the point of 50 rubles per share, may now try to repeat the June local maxima in the region of 55-56 rubles. Preferred shares of Sberbank rose 4.49%. Index of financial sector MICEX FNL 2,9%, was the best among the sectoral indicators MICEX.

second locomotive of Russia's market was the steel sector, where shares of Polyus Gold (8.24%) and Polymetal (3.4%) reacted to the rise of quotations of gold and silver, and Mechel's shares (8.16%) occurred more than a dynamic rebound to fall protection. Metallurgical MICEX MM 2,43%.

In electricity, there was mostly positive momentum of the leaders - OGK, the best result of which showed the WGC-6 (4.12%) against the background of a strong reporting under IFRS for the first half of 2009. Net income rose nearly 48 times and amounted to 2.68 billion rubles. The main factor for the growth of profits has been a dramatic reduction in cost (-16%), while revenues over the same period in 2008 grew by only 0,4%. Electricity MICEX PWR 0,5%.

oil and gas sector against the backdrop of sluggish oil prices also looked blankly, a number of chips sector finished the day in the red, including Lukoil (-0.38%) and Gazprom (-0.54%) MICEX OG 0,25%.

In the telecommunications sector after the spectacular growth of the previous days there has been a correction in a number of papers, the hardest hit prefecture Uralsvyazinform (-8,45%), MICEX TLC -0,7%

Expectations for today: on foreign stock markets today remain positive market conditions, as a result of the MICEX index is likely to be able at least in the early trades to rise above 1 100 points. In this dynamic during the day, is likely to be volatile as the markets will wait for one of the most important at this week's statistical releases - Statement of Changes in the number of jobs in the U.S. economy. Stagnant oil prices also do not inspire optimism. In general, Russia's market continues to move in a narrow consolidation, out of which, in our opinion, is more likely down than up.

Today is expected to be published next block of data on unemployment in the U.S. (off-farm employment and the unemployment rate for August). Predicted a continued short-term dynamics of the U.S. market is difficult: because after several days of declines, which would seem to indicate a possible beginning of the correction in the market, growth has resumed, and we can not say that, for this was a really serious reason.

log in and see the material;;

5; users rated material on 4,6.


Analyst Ratings

Click to continue »