Oil will not issue, the Fed will not eat

Today is probably moderately positive opening of trading on Russia's rising oil prices and U.S. indices. Then the probable consolidation before the publication of important U.S. statistics.

The presidium of the government Vladimir Putin has said that, despite the need for borrowing, Russia will not involve the IMF and retain the possibility of their use in the future. Russia may attract concessional IMF loan in the amount of $ 8.84 billion worth of 1%. Oil prices have risen, and the situation with the income budget has become better. Thus the IMF loans have always demanded the implementation of tougheconomic and even political conditions. Accordingly, if necessary, Russia will take on market conditions, paying more expensive loans for the preservation of sovereign economic and political lines.

Vice-Premier Sergei Ivanov has approved the scheme for the exchange of telecommunication assets of Sistema and the state. Holding gets 23,3% of MGTS and gets rid of the debt of Sberbank in the amount of 26 billion rubles. Government returns to the ownership of 25% plus one share of Svyazinvest and receives 100% of Sky Link, which has already reached an agreement with the owner of 50% of the operator Danish lawyer Jeffrey Galmond. Based on the Sky Link Svyazinvest will build a fourth federal mobile operator, which likely will include mobile assets MRK. The denouement in the history of Svyazinvest is approaching, however, we have already noted the significant risks and advise minority shareholders MRK monitor the situation from the outside.

Ukrainian side stated that the transit tariff for Gazprom to rise in 2010 to 65-70%. Perhaps the figure is too high and is named in the trading process, but certainly tariffs for transit will increase. Text moderately negative for the shares of Gazprom. Yesterday, the market saw good demand in the shares BEAC, respectively speculators profited handsomely. However, when the mysterious buyer to complete purchase, the paper's leading bank in the country will be under pressure. We reserve the cold attitude to the shares of Sberbank and VTB. We well remember that in the crisis of debt on loans give only cowards, and hence the profit banks can not rely.

Today at 16.30 Moscow time, will be published by important figures in American statistics, which will determine the closing weeks. Will be published data on employment in the manufacturing sector excluding agriculture (Nonfarm Payrolls) for August, weather - reduction of the indicator at 223 thousand, the unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate) for August, expectations - 9,5%.

Discount Russia's market to emerging markets is impressive and is 30-40%. Looking at a market valuation, one might think that Russia is facing a rematch of the left and the nationalization of companies or big war. Thus, from our point of view, the discount to emerging markets, in principle, hardly justified c economic point of view. Many market participants expect a smooth elimination /reduction of the discount in the next two years. However, the market does not like to wait. Two-year plan to rehabilitate the stock market can be made for several months. We are still in the baseline scenario, focus on the corridor 1300-1500 points on the RTS index by the end of the year. Oil will not issue, the Fed will not eat.

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end of the week will be moderately positive

yesterday on Russia's trading sites experienced modest growth of quotations. Shares traded oil and gas sector in the region of zero marks because of incoherent dynamics of oil quotations. Yesterday we were advised to buy shares of Sberbank, Aeroflot and UTair. All 3 papers met our expectations. Sberbank again become a real market leader, equities soared by 8%. Paper Utair and Aeroflot were growing by 20% and 6% respectively, and adjusted only to the end of the auction.

The U.S. stock market is dominated by a moderately positive trend. Statistics, published yesterday, were neutral. Number of applications for unemployment benefits changed little, while the ISM index of business activity in the service sector was slightly above expectations. The mood of investors improved data on sales of retailers last month, which allowed major indices to close in positive territory at 0.7-0.9%.

External background at the opening of Russia's market neutral. Japanese Nikkei falling 0.4%. Chinese Shanghai Composite is reduced by 0.2%. London Brent traded at a mark of $ 67.5. Futures on the U.S. S P500 decreased by 0.1%.

Today, we expect to see the opening of Russia's market close yesterday's closing levels. Once again, the trading session, likely to be quite sluggish. Our yesterday's leaders: Sberbank, Utair and Aeroflot, once again able to please investors. Nevertheless, we would recommend to fix the portion of profit to output statistics on the labor market in the United States. These data are very important for understanding the medium-term dynamics of the stock sites.

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