Despite poor statistics, the market managed to hold on to the green zone

Russia's stock market finished in positive territory on Friday. At the opening of the leaders of growth left the paper KAMAZ and AvtoVAZ. However, trades in securities soon had to stop because of too rapid growth of prices: MICEX 20 minutes after opening suspended at 1 hour auction KAMAZ ordinary shares due to growth in current prices by more than 20% over the closing price the previous trading day, the RTS Stock Exchange before the end of the trading day closed auctions for securities of AvtoVAZ because of their growth by more than 30% over the closing price the previous day. Quotations securities soared on rumors of plans to transfer Rostekhnologii assets, namely 25% stake in AvtoVAZ, and 38% of KAMAZ, a subsidiary of the company. As a result, market is flooded with a new wave of reports of a possible merger of two companies, which incidentally, are unfounded: while it is only to create a structure that does not join the motorcar giants, but only lengthen the chain of owners. In this regard, it is likely that interest in the securities of a purely speculative in nature, and soon we will see a correction in the shares of these companies.

better market rose today, the paper banks. In quotes BEAC, probably had an impact on buying message Opel. There have been news and VTB: FSFR authorized placement and treatment abroad of ordinary shares of the bank.

on a weaker dollar and, consequently, are good indicators of oil prices, bad feeling and oil and gas sector. His share of optimism brought on the market statistics for the U.S. index of consumer confidence. However, at the closing, published data on stocks in the United States were worse than expected, but the collapse of quotations is not caused, even futures on major U.S. indices showed neutral dynamics. In general wave of optimism, Russia's stock market came close to that of the annual maxima.

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On the daily charts VTB continues to move in the short uplink.

After mid-May, VTB has struck a mid-term downward channel, there have been two attempts to break through the level of p 0.05., and despite the fact that within days the market went above this mark, the action has not been able to gain a foothold at this level . Then almost the whole June VTB declined in a fairly steep short-channel and popped for a mark p 0.03. he turned up. After an unsuccessful attempt in mid-July update in June at least, the stock has resumed its growth, forming a short-term upward channel, where she currently continues to move.

If this channel is pierced down, the nearest horizontal support level is 0.04 p., confident breakdown which would mean that the most likely action is reduced to the level of the horizontal support of p 0.03. which has already proved to be sturdy enough to stop the downward trend, however strong it may be.

If VTB will continue upward movement in short-term rising channel, the immediate resistance level is the maximum of this year - 0.0527 p. Sure break up of this level is likely to achieve the maximum rebound in September last year - 0.06 p.

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At 16.00 Moscow time the price index value RGBI totaled 118.49. Compared with the previous day's close, it rose by 0.23 part (0.194%). Trading volume on the market of government securities amounted to 27.03 billion rubles. RU000A0JQ623 Yield on bonds with maturity in December 2009 was 8.25% (0.25 percentage points), SU25064RMFS5 on bonds with maturity in January 2012 - 10.6% (-0.15 percentage points), for bonds with SU25065RMFS2 maturing in March 2013 - 11.06% (-0.09 percentage points), SU25067RMFS8 on bonds with maturity in October 2012 - 10.92% (-0.14 percentage points), SU25068RMFS6 on bonds with maturity in August 2014 - 11.67% (-0.07 percentage points).

C corporate bonds concluded 777 deals amounting to 3692.57 million rubles. Yield on bonds RZD-10obl with maturity in March 2014 was 13.05% (-0.32 percentage points) on the bonds AHML KO-02 with maturity in August 2011 - 25.66% (1.98 percentage points) at 03 with MTS bonds maturing in June 2018 - 10.42% (0 percentage points) on the bonds MDM Bank 5 with maturity in October 2011 - 13.92% (-0.68 percentage points) on GazpromA13 bonds with maturity in June 2012 - 9.3% (-0.08 percentage points).

C sub-federal and municipal bonds signed 83 deals amounting to 454.02 million rubles. Yield on bonds MGor54-on with maturity in September 2012 was 12.24% (-0.16 percentage points), on bonds Idaho-8 with maturity in May 2011 - 13.34% (-11.66 percentage points) , on bonds MGor45-on with maturity in June 2012 - 12.19% (-0.22 percentage points), on Mos.obl.7v bonds with maturity in April 2014 - 15.65% (-0.27 PP .) bonds MGor62-on with maturity in June 2014 - 12.79% (-0.22 percentage points). Click to continue »

Stocks

flat profits on long positions in ordinary shares of Gazprom (GAZP RX) at levels above 175 rubles.

Maintain long positions in ordinary shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel (GMKN RX) with the immediate goal in 3700 rubles.

part (at #189; open position) to record profits on long positions in ordinary shares Volgatelekoma (VTEL RX) levels in the 59.9-60.1 rubles.

Maintain long positions in ordinary shares RusHydro (HYDR RX) with the immediate goal of 1,150 rubles.

save short positions in the September futures on the RTS index (VEU9) with the immediate goal of 1080 points.

sell December futures on theRTS index (VEZ9) in the range of 1180-1200 points to the immediate goal of 1080 points.

Raw

sell the October oil futures (NGV9) at current levels ($ 71.90-72.00), with the immediate goal of $ 68.50 and stop loss on a mark of $ 73.50.

sell the October futures for natural gas (NGV9) at current levels ($ 3.20-3.30) with the immediate goal of $ 2.70 and stop loss on a mark of $ 3.40.

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After a rally early days of this week, yesterday's trading on Russia's stock market ended with multidirectional dynamics of the basic indices (RTS index - 0.34%, the index of MICEX - minus 0.5%) in the expected, intra-day technical correction. Intraday external background did not give specific reasons for optimism over the first half trading. Thus, the modest decline that prevailed in world oil prices, was the cause correction of shares of oil and gas sector after the upbeat opening. Reduction sway in world prices for base metals, which exert pressure on the shares of Norilsk Nickel. But the bullish data on weekly changes in U.S. energy reserves and increase forecast for global oil demand from the International Energy Agency have led to modest growth in world oil prices later during the day, which reduced the loss of the shares of oil companies towards the end of the day. With the exception of Gazprom shares, which were able to hold up to the day in positive territory, a moderate negative closure of the most liquid market (Gazprom - 1.43%, Lukoil - minus 0.01%, Nornickel - minus 1.52%, Sberbank - minus 1.5%, Rosneft - minus 0.98%, Surgutneftegaz - minus 0.79%, VTB - minus 1.74%). The result - a regular and expected pause in growth.

Today, relatively neutral external background does not give reasons at the beginning of Russia's stock market trades for either active growth or for the active reduction. In the end - waiting for the calm, within one percent of dynamics, opening on the main indices on the background of multidirectional dynamics of the most liquid securities. Thus, the fifth day a moderate rise in completed auctions major U.S. indexes (DJI - 0.84%, NASDAQ - 1.15%, S P500 - 1.04%), but flat the dynamics of futures on major U.S. indexes. Improved prediction for profitability in the coming quarter, brought the leaders of yesterday, shares of Procter Gamble (plus 4.24%). A modest positive trend - in shares of financial companies and banks. At the end of the day, shares of Citigroup rose 1.93%, shares of JPMorgan - to 0.37%, shares of Bank of America - at 1.06%. Moderate increase in world oil prices, a moderate increase in the shares of oil companies. At the end of the day index of the largest oil companies added 1.42%. Against the backdrop of rising world gold prices, the index's largest gold mining companies rose by 3.42%. From the statistics of the United States today will provide the interest of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan (preliminary estimate for September) and the U.S. budget deficit for August.

Moderate positive dynamics - the stock markets of Latin America yesterday (Mexico - 0.75% Brazil - 1.08% Argentina - 1.82%), but mixed dynamics - in Asia today (Japan - minus 0.66%, Korea - 0.43% China - 1.7%, Taiwan - 0.07%).

final lateral dynamics in spite of bull of the data from the Energy Information Administration - the world oil market yesterday, but modest growth against the backdrop of dollar weakness within a narrow range in Asia, a week today. Price of the October Brent crude oil futures on the results of yesterday's trading rose 0.03 to 69.86 dollars after the intraday peak 70.7 dollars after the Energy Information Administration data. In Asia, the price of the October Brent crude oil futures rose 0.37 dollars. Today the dynamics of the global oil market will determine the dynamics of the U.S. currency to the other world currencies.

significant negative dynamics of a collapse in world prices for lead - in the market of the major base metals yesterday, continuing a modest decline in morning trading in Asia today. Following yesterday's trading on the LME, the price of three-month nickel futures dropped by 3.51%, copper price fell by 1.56%, zinc price declined by 4.04% on the price of lead fell by 13.31%.

mixed dynamics - in the sector ADRs for shares of Russia's oil and gas sector in the U.S. yesterday, Mixed discount to the closing prices of shares in RTS on September 10. Gazprom - 1%, LUKoil - minus 1.098%, Surgutneftegaz - minus 1.75%.

Despite the positive closing of Wall Street yesterday, Russia's market is expected to be quite within the range of one percent, the dynamics in the early afternoon and it is likely profit-taking in the event of even a relatively neutral external background later. Achieved in the first days of the week significant levels on major indices require a major external driver for continued growth, which is currently lacking. In the end - waiting for the vibrations of the basic indexes in 3 per cent range below the maximum of this week (1180 points on the index MICEX).

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Information received on the market late Thursday and today during the Asian session, again was largely favorable to the investor segment of the nature of risky assets.

American indicator the number of calls for unemployment insurance for the week ended Sept. 5 this year declined to 550 000 to the average forecast, equal in this case 560 000. However, the value of the previous reporting period for this indicator was revised to increase to 576 000 against 570 000 previously.

index dynamics of Chinese industrial output rose in August to 12,3% (g /g) significantly exceeded, thus, its the July value is 10,8%. This measure changes in consumer prices in China's economy declined by 1.2% (g /g), apparently by reducing market concern about the possibility of increasing price pressures in the near future under the influence of the authorities of this country supportive fiscal policy. Finally, retail sales in China, also according to today's media, last month increased by 15,4% (g /g) exceeded the average market forecasts.

However, the situation in the sphere of foreign trade in China can not yet speak about sustainable recovery rates of growth of its GDP. In August of this year Trade surplus in this country showed a decrease of 45% (g /t), amounted to $ 15.7 billion Against this background, the Prime - Minister of China Wen's Daily said today that the stabilization and improvement in the national economy at the moment are not yet stable and balanced process. Influence of some anti-crisis measures, previously used, the situation in macroeconomics will be reduced. It takes time to this policy based on long-term strategy to work. Therefore, we can not and will not change the nature of our actions in the field of economic incentives until the yet for this will not be created more favorable conditions.

In general, the information mentioned above, obviously, supported the segment of the investment in risk. Against this background, the EUR /USD once again for the last trading week showed up to the day growth and this morning quoted at 1.4610 against 1.4560 at the opening Thursday. Additional negative pressure on the U.S. dollar against the euro yesterday, has information on increasing America's trade deficit in July of this year to $ 31.96 billion against the average expected value of this indicator experts, is $ 27.1 billion value of the deficit the previous month in this case was reviewed with an increase to $ 27.49 billion from $ 27.10 earlier. However, it should be noted that even with these unfavorable for the U.S. currency of data, in general, the index of the trade balance remains in the number of indicators, which indicates the medium-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the single European currency (Figure 1).

Currency pair EUR /USD at the current moment, obviously, keeps rising trend, and perhaps after some down-correction in the next few days, then resume again increase. However, the medium-term buying of euro against the dollar seem now to be excessively risky.

Quotes RUR to USD and against the currency basket of the MICEX today to 11:00 Moscow time were 30.73 and 37.13 rubles. against, respectively, 31.15 and 37.24 rubles. at yesterday's morning trading.

At the end of the current or during the next week, possibly some depreciation of RUB in relation to leading world currencies under the influence of technical factors. Nevertheless, the scenario medium-term weakening of Russia's currency on the international FX, might be postponed because of the improving situation on Russia's financial markets.

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