The main investment theme of the outgoing week was the weak dollar. Yesterday the currency exchange rate dropped to 1.46 dollars /euros. Oil rising in price, European indices and U.S. index futures were pulling for Russia's emerging stock market correction. However, to achieve the indicators (RTS and MICEX) levels of 1175 points, the sellers entered the market.

At the end of the day the MICEX index fell by 0,5%, RTS - increased by 0,3%. As leaders of growth in the list of liquidity - Gazprom (1,4%). The acts of the second-tier leaders of paper Kamaz (30%). The reason for the growth was the news of the intention Rostekhnologii gain control over the company. Shares of Sberbank became the first victims of correction. Prefaktsii lost 3% of the ordinary - 2,4%. Accounts for the 2Q2009 according to IFRS as a whole is positive, however, the growth of arrears was negative surprise for investors.

At 16:30 Moscow time in the United States was published makrostatistika. Despite the ambiguity, it is generally commended by the market. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell by 26 thousand, but the U.S. trade deficit rose in July to 32 billion (expected 27.5 billion dollars). The value of the unemployment was 550 thousand experts expect 565 thousand Makrorezultaty and improve forecasts of financial performance of companies technologically sophisticated sector led growth indices within 1%. However, this was enough to update the annual maxima. European indexes have shown differently directed momentum up to the day, within 0,5%.

Asian markets in today's trading mostly grow, with the exception of Nikkei (-0,8%). U.S. futures indices are adjusted downwards (-0.2%). Petroleum rises in price against the backdrop of a weak dollar, falling oil reserves in the U.S. and hopes for growth in demand from the Chinese economy. WTI futures surpassed $ 72 per barrel., Brent - $ 70 per barrel.

Yesterday, Bank of China Ltd. Delivered with the assessment of the situation on world stock exchanges, recognizing that over-saturation of liquidity has led to the emergence of bubbles in the stock, commodity and housing markets. Index of Shanghai Stock Exchange since the beginning of the year grew by 61%. In fairness, we note that the RTS index has grown since the beginning of the year by almost 85%.

Last accountability EPFR said about the lack of willingness to risk players free funds. Flows into equity funds ceased in early September because of fears of instability for reviving the global economy , - written in his report, analysts EPFR.

Total for week ending September 2, investors have redirected 5.06 billion dollars in bond funds and seized 4.95 billion from equity funds. In contrast to the previous week, when 21 of 24 equity funds, sector funds and funds of securities with fixed income funds experienced inflows, only 12 managed to attract new money. According to EPFR, as of September 7, Russia funds have attracted $ 30 million, China - 22 million dollars, BRIC funds experienced outflows of $ 76 million, funds GEM - $ 45 million

News background to Russia's market as a whole is positive, but the high price levels of shares and the end of the week may persuade investors to take profits. Among the interesting news - the publication of the monthly report of the ECB, the PPI in August (UK), the index of import prices in August, the wholesale stores in July (USA), as well as the University of Michigan confidence index.

Click to continue »

At the beginning of the session recommend to take profits

Yesterday's session was quite volatile due to high levels, as well as the uncertainty observed in the dynamics of the major landmarks. Following the session, the MICEX index closed in negative territory, losing more than 0,5%. On the dynamics of Russia's market has influenced the block statistic data on the U.S. economy, major steel traditional data applications for benefits, which were better than expected, but the decline indicators contributed negatively to closing.

Opening IT market, the last trading day of the week is expected to positive territory. After the closure of local sites basic guidelines Russia market showed an upward momentum, which will promote shopping at the opening.Crude oil futures substantial support from the weakening U.S. dollar: as the currency pair EUR /USD crossed the 1.46 mark. In such a weak dollar, oil futures could show a more substantial increase, if not the data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products the United States. If crude oil inventories fell for the week, the stocks of both gasoline and distillates have grown substantially, which graded not only lower stocks of crude oil, but also the weakening U.S. dollar. After the closure of Russia's oil market traded volatile and as a result came out at those levels at which Russia's stock market closed.

U.S. index futures traded in negative zone. Futures on the SP 500 index traded in the short-channel formed at around 1040 points. The negative dynamics of futures on indexes linked to the correction after the percentage growth of the American market and its closure at high levels.

In the first half of trading session will be held rather low. Morning rise, market participants are likely to record, then the market may lie in a sideways trend until the second half of the session, when it announced a series of statistic data. An auction can adjust the import and export prices, but the main are preliminary data on the sentiment index for September, according to the University of Michigan, which will be announced at 17:55 Moscow time. Expected growth of this indicator, which will lead to an increase in U.S. dollar, as well as purchases in the stock market.

better market opening may look shares oil and gas sector, which respond to the levels at which traded black gold. The worst of the market sector can look locally overbought Rosneft and Gazprom Neft. The acts of Gazprom's purchase may be continued in order for them is 175 rubles. ADR on shares of Gazprom excelled 9% of th growth. Shares of oil and gas sector were traded on the American market better sites, which also contributes purchases.

Shares of the banking sector have adjusted downwards before, most likely, will be able to test the next resistance levels at the grown-futures on U.S. indices. Resistances for shares of Sberbank and VTB are 21-dnevnyya moving averages, passing on the levels of 56.85 rubles. and 4.55 cop. respectively.

Click to continue »