sharp jumps of the dollar in July-August vacation spoiled many Ukrainians. Instead of enjoying a full rest, they ran between the exchange points and thought about whether to buy the dollar at 8,90 UAH. or wait a bit - and suddenly the prime minister was right, and the dollar will soon be fair cost 6,50. Thus, the persistent talk of experts and politicians about the imminence of a sharp devaluation of the hryvnia fall (10, 12, and can, as never can tell, and up to 15 hryvnia to the dollar) led to the calendar paradox: on the interbank market fall came in August.

On the one hand, the increasing deficit in balance of payments (it reached 8.2 billion dollars in January-July this year) foolish talk about revalvatsionnom capacity of the national currency and the strengthening of the hryvnia to 7.60 was of a pronounced seasonal in nature, supplemented by administrative efforts of the NBU.

the other - further massive currency devaluation is unlikely, taking into account such factors as has already occurred on a sharp correction of the trade balance, a gradual improvement in external trade conditions, high rates of rollover of foreign debt and financial support from the IMF.

In particular, gross foreign reserves of the NBU are at a fairly high level - with the recent receipt of $ 1.6 billion from the IMF under the program of redistribution of quota countries - members of the fund. Reserves currently account for 28.9 billion dollars this way, the National Bank still is considerable scope for intervention in currency markets by the end of the year (though still limited, and quantitative criteria set by the IMF) to avoid too sharp exchange rate fluctuations .

According to our estimates, the last episode of weakening the national currency is linked, first of all, with a sharp increase in demand due to increased devaluation expectations of the population. Fuel to the fire, apparently added the payment of deposits and the beginning of problem banks, passed into state ownership, since a significant proportion of elapsed time for a moratorium contributions be sent straight to the currency market. Also, according to observations of bankers, significantly increased the demand for foreign currency by private entrepreneurs, employees, primarily in the agricultural sector: the proceeds received, they immediately exchanged all the available funds for foreign currency.

These findings are confirmed by the balance of payments. In July, the amount of cash foreign currency outside the banking system grew by 1,073 million (compared with 283 million dollars for the three previous months combined). In July, there was also a sharp increase in imports (by 23% compared to June), which led to the rapid growth of trade deficit. However, almost half of the growth of imports in July due to increased volumes of purchases of gas by Naftogaz of Ukraine (with 1 billion
up to 3,2 billion cubic meters), that does not create pressure on the exchange rate, as well as the purchase of foreign currency to pay for imported gas does not pass through the interbank foreign exchange market.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that some recovery in domestic demand is also partly influenced the exchange rate in July. For example, imports of engineering products increased by 21% compared with June.

At the same time, despite the improvement in exports (the gradual recovery in external demand for steel, the beginning of the season exports of agricultural products), the supply of foreign currency is at a low enough level. Exporters holding back in anticipation of revenue more profitable course for sale.

rapid jump in the dollar forced the NBU to seek regulatory measures to reduce the rush on the currency market. First, according to the National Bank, the excess liquidity in the banking system weighs on the currency market. Therefore, over the past two months NBU significantly tightened reserve requirements for banks, which led to a decrease in the level of excess liquidity from 10-12 to 3-4 billion UAH. Secondly, the regulator, as usual, not averse to resorting to administrative measures, such as a ban on charging commissions for currency exchange operations, the establishment of a maximum margin between the buying and selling rates of cash, the establishment of a single intra-exchange rates and a ban on its change during the operational Day etc. Click to continue »