September 14th, 2009

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Cars tipped as a long stagnation

Monday, September 14th, 2009

However, Ukrainian producers are not inclined to gloss over the reality and draw pretty dire predictions. According to them, fall in demand only get worse, and in 2010 will be for the market even more unfortunate than the current one.

In August, has sold 14,5 thousand cars in July - 13,3 thousand is small, but still better than in the disastrous June, when sales amounted to 11 140 cars. The most unfortunate for car dealers have in February - June: The level of implementation of the vehicle during this time sunk into the period of 2003 At the same time, we can say that in August the results are comparable to 2004 - says CEO, International Auto Elena Dunin.

She believes that one reason for the resumption of buying activity in August was the devaluation of national currency: Typically, in such a situation the consumer is increasing interest in investing and buying some goods, - she said. In its forecast, in the case of the relative stability of the hryvnia (this will exclude the possible price fluctuations), the rate of growth in demand for cars in the autumn months will be about 10%. Our conservative forecast - 15 thousand cars a month before the end of the year, and the most daring - to 20 thousand this way, the market volume before the end of the year will be about 180 thousand vehicles, - the specialist said.

not least a positive impact on the market would have canceled the import duty on import of new cars. Until now, caution dealers did not allow them to import cars in the full range of colors and a complete set, which adversely affected the demand. In addition, according to importers, stimulate the buying activity should mitigate the credit conditions cars. By reducing the size of the first payment on some models and interest rates on credit sales share in the loan now stands at 15-20%, while in spring it did not exceed 5% - note the Auto International. Recall in 2008, when the Ukrainian market was sold 623 thousand vehicles, the proportion of cars sold on credit, was 50%.

Note that such optimistic forecasts extremely discord with the vision of the situation by domestic producers. Click to continue »

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As of 18:00 Moscow time the volume of trading on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 132.71 billion rubles

Monday, September 14th, 2009

As of 18:00 Moscow time the volume of trading on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 132.71 billion rubles. or 4.32 billion dollars, the MICEX Index, compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day down by 1.59 part (0.135%) to 1173.56 p.

MICEX Oil Gas Index - rose to 1.91 part (0.086%) to Section 2225.88, MICEX Power Index - rose 29.07 subsection (1.508%) to Section 1956.4, MICEX Telecommunication Index - rose to 8.75 p. (0.59%) to Section 1492.32, MICEX Metals and Mining Index - fell by 33.7 n. (1.107%) to Section 3009.32, MICEX Manufacturing Index - rose to 114.22 subsection (7.143%) to Section 1713.27, MICEX Financials Index - fell by 9.1 part (0.233%) to 3888.41 p.

MICEX Large Cap Index - fell to 3.87 part (0.202%) to Section 1915.31, MICEX Mid Cap Index - rose 12.62 subsection (0.744%) to Section 1709.2, MICEX Start Cap Index - rose 36.06 subsection (1.257%) to 2905.93 p.

top gainers were:

iO2TV-cs (36.51%)

TAGMET cs (32.04%)

KAMAZ (30.00%)

Lenenergo-p (27.54%)

NutrInvHol (20.94%).

Losers were:

KrasOkt-1p (-26.12%)

TulaEnSb (-11.15%)

RITEK an (-10.39%)

TGK-4 p (-7.02%)

SPC-AO (-6.72%).

index of corporate bonds MICEX CBI CP compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day increased to 0.08 § (0.09%) to 89.11 n. As of 18:00 Moscow time in corporate bonds in 1121 concluded a deal worth 9.15 billion USD . Yield on bonds RZD-10obl with maturity in March 2014 was 12.93% (-0.09 percentage points), according to RZD-08obl bonds with maturity in July 2011 - 11.55% (-0.03 percentage points), by RZD-12obl bonds with maturity in May 2019 - 11.74% (-0.1 percentage points), the System-02 bonds with maturity in August 2014 - 13.76% (0.03 percentage points), bonds RosselhB 2 with maturity in February 2011 - 11.29% (0.36 percentage points).

index of municipal bonds MICEX MBI CP compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day increased by 0.24 part (0.273%) to 88.03 n. As of 18:00 Moscow time with the regional bond signed 180 deals amounting to 1815.96 million rubles . Yield on bonds MGor62-on with maturity in June 2014 was 12.79% (-0.1 percentage points), on bonds MGor63-on with maturity in December 2013 - 12.89% (-0.1 percentage points), , on bonds MGor44-on with maturity in June 2015 - 12.56% (-0.2 percentage points), on bonds MGor54-on with maturity in September 2012 - 11.93% (-0.22 percentage points), , on bonds MGor56-on with maturity in September 2016 - 13% (-0.08 percentage points).

value RGBI price index was 118.49. Compared with the previous day's close it had fallen to 0.07 part (0.059%). Trading volume on the market of government securities amounted to 35.15 billion rubles. SU25057RMFS9 Yield on bonds with maturity in January 2010 was 8.8% (-0.12 percentage points), SU25059RMFS5 on bonds with maturity in January 2011 - 10.28% (0.02 percentage points), for bonds with SU25066RMFS0 maturing in July 2011 - 10.47% (0.05 percentage points), SU25067RMFS8 on bonds with maturity in October 2012 - 10.96% (0.03 percentage points), SU25068RMFS6 on bonds with maturity in August 2014 . - 11.64% (0 pp).

Total trading volume on the derivatives market amounted to 2.19 billion rubles. Futures on USD: trading volume - 2.08 billion rubles., Quotation of the nearest futures - 30.8498 rubles. (0.1098 rub.), The volume of open positions - 2.07 million counter. Futures EURO: the volume of open positions - 14,27 thousand counter. Futures on the EURO /USD: Total open positions - 50 counter. MICEX Index futures: trading volume - 89.89 million rubles., Quotation of the nearest futures - 117,060 rubles. (-740 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 803 contr. Futures on Gazprom: the volume of trades - 14.48 million rubles., Quotation of the nearest futures - 17160 rub. (-396 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 586 contr. Futures on Savings: trading volume - 6.54 million rubles., Quotation of the nearest futures - 5886 rubles. (-40 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 1512 counter.

Following the auction MICEX currency market the U.S. dollar in the UTS with the calculations of tomorrow was 30.8573 rubles. the dollar, which is 13.19 kopecks. (0.4293%) over the course of the previous trading day. The euro at the UTS with the calculations of tomorrow has grown by 2.5 kopecks. to 44.8935 rubles. Total foreign exchange market concluded deals worth 9.94 billion dollars, which is 3.61% less than the previous trading day.

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Statistics from the United States today there is, therefore, before the opening of the American market is not ruled out an attempt to close the gap

Monday, September 14th, 2009

Europe

European markets decline. Pan-European FTSE Eurotop 100 index of -1.1%, Britain's FTSE 100 -0.77%, the German Xetra Dax -0.88%, French Lyxor Cac 40 -1.09%.

shares second largest French bank Societe Generale and Germany's largest bank Deutsche Bank falling by 3.3% and 2% respectively, after lowering the recommendations by the financial group Nomura Holdings. Metals on LME lose in price, falling mining stocks. Vedanta Resources -3.3%, Eurasian Natural -3.3%, Rio Tinto -2.6%, BHP Billiton -2.3%.

Oil

Oil prices fell on Friday against the dollar rebound from the lows and the annual increase in stocks of petroleum products. Now futures moderate decline, losing 0.4%. Spot Brent $ 67.28, WTI $ 69.29.

Russia

The market opened with a 2% gepom down on the background of the deterioration of the external background. In minus closed all share platforms (excluding China), oil prices fell, the dollar rose. Then the market decline partly leveled futures rebound after SP 500. At 16:00 Moscow MICEX index decreased by 0.84%, RTS index by 1.7%. Trading volume on the MICEX stock market 44 billion rubles., Remain at high levels.

As leaders of growth stocks are engineering sector. Shares KAMAZ again add 30% for the week has risen to 80%, against the background of negotiations on purchase of state corporation Rostekhnologii 13% stake in KAMAZ Troika Dialog at the price three times higher than the market. AvtoVAZ is growing at 7.3%. Are added today, and shares of energy companies. According to representatives of the Ministry of Energy, its investment in the electricity sector in the next year will rise by 2010 could increase by 9%. TGC-2 6.9%, TGK-14 6.1%, RusHydro 3.5%, 2.5% of FGC.

In the oil and gas and metallurgical sectors decline. Shares of oil and gas companies discreetly react to the dynamics of oil, even a 4% drop does not become an occasion for sales. Gazprom -2% -1.7% Rosneft, Lukoil -1.5%. Adjusted shares some telecommunications companies. SPC -8.9%, North West Telecom -4.2%, Rostelecom vaccinated. -3.1%.

Forecast

Statistics from the United States today there is, therefore, before the opening of the American market is not ruled out an attempt to close the gap. From a technical point of view, the market is close to the key resistance level at 1,200 points. I admit that we will update the year highs in the coming days, but buy at current levels do not advise. The risk adjustment is large, especially given the vague dynamics of oil prices. Our market in the period of growth long and hard can not pay attention to the key factors that often ends with a strong movement down. Speculators would recommend this to stay out of the market, the medium-term investors to capture profits on shares of banks, long-term hold position.

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Recommendations futures Gazprom shares

Monday, September 14th, 2009

recommend buying a put option for money on Gazprom shares with the performance in October

Futures on shares of OAO Gazprom (GZU9): in the morning futures are in contango at 12-30 Moscow time was 250 basis points (Fig. 1), and futures GZU9 reduced by 2 , 5%.

Fig. 1 History of the basis (within days).

In the long term the market remains in a downtrend. Volatility in the December putakh higher volatility in the collie. At the current market there is volatility smirk, which indicates the resumption of top-down dynamics (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Futures GZU9. Exchange IV within days.

If we talk about the number of open positions, then the maximum amount - at GZ16000X9 (put max, Fig. 3) and GZ17000L9 (call max, Fig. 3) strikes. However, in absolute amounts of these levels are minimal and they should not be considered as fully formed.

Figure 3. Levels of optional support /resistance.

The most likely scenario: a correction from current levels in the region 15000

A less likely scenario: rising to the level of 20000.

In this situation, I recommend buying a put option for money with the performance in October.

Bid - GZ17000AV9 - p /n - 780 rub.

holding period - 28 days.

Risks - paid prize - 780 rubles.

earning potential is unlimited.

Influence of time negatively.

Figure 4.

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Experts: U.S. economic recovery may take up to 5 years

Monday, September 14th, 2009

At

full recovery of the U.S. economy may take up to 5 years, cites the opinion of the chief economist of Moody s Economy.com Mark Zandi agency Bloomberg.

M. Zandi thinks that the economy will be able to re-create 6.9 million jobs and trillions of dollars in damages to compensate for no earlier than the middle of next decade. Unemployment, according to him, may never return to the minimum level of 4.4% fixed in 2007.

Even if the optimistic forecasts of analysts are correct, and the GDP growth next year will average 3.5% per quarter, it is not enough that has been pre-crisis level of $ 13.42 trillion, believes chief economist JPMorgan Chase Co. Bruce Kasman.

In general, says B. Kasman, despite the fact that for almost a year has passed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, GDP contracted in the second quarter to $ 12.89 trillion on an annualized basis, the situation remains very worrying.

Unemployment may well remain the highest in the last 26 years the level of 9,7% over the course of 2010, which in turn will force the monetary authorities to keep interest rates at a level close to zero, and would not reduce the budget deficit below the record $ 1.6 trillion. Click to continue »

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The anniversary of the crisis: the avaricious pays twice

Monday, September 14th, 2009

 
A year ago, took the famous bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, which caused serious turmoil in the global economy. The U.S. monetary authorities have provided support to other key institutions of the financial system, however, in the case of Lehman decided to save and get a good well-known negative effects. Miserly pay twice. Avoid large-scale banking crisis a year ago in Russia managed only by massive government bailouts. Russia did not collapse, no major bank. The fall in oil prices and a large-scale capital outflows forced the government to devalue the ruble. Over the past year, the world has not changed and is unlikely to change anytime soon. Discussions pessimistic about the economic collapse, the collapse of capitalism and the beginning of a new socialist era, as expected, and were talking.

This soft monetary policy of central banks worldwide will continue to push up commodity prices and stock indices. Accordingly, Russia's oil and gas companies and the budget will be automatic increase their income without increasing effectiveness and productivity. As a result of the crisis in Russia the share of state in the economy reached 50%. This state-owned companies in general are losing on the efficiency and transparency of private companies. Rosneft - only a pleasant exception. The belief that with a lag of 3-6 months Russia will emerge from the crisis, I made immediately after the bridge turn Brent at 60 dollars per barrel. The modern world is much more comfortable for Russia than one might think. Click to continue »

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Review of the FOREX market for 11.09.09

Monday, September 14th, 2009

Dynamics

Reducing the U.S. dollar to a halt. At the same time EUR /USD pair once again failed to gain a foothold above the 1.4600 mark, the pair GBP /USD fell below 1.6700 marks, and the pair USD /CHF rose slightly to 1.0400.

Japanese yen, at the same time, continued to strengthen rapidly against the dollar and other currencies. When the pair USD /JPY dropped to a mark of 90.00, and the pair EUR /JPY fell to 131.50.

Commodity currencies were also unable to continue to rise against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD fell back to a mark 0.8600, the pair NZD /USD above 0.7000 restrained, and the pair USD /CAD was trading around 1.0800.

Causes

On Friday, the dollar was trading extremely volatile, but remained in ranges against most currencies, despite attempts to further easing. Market participants still preferred to rely on the state of stock markets, which continued to rise throughout the day. However, towards the end of the North American session, the index had difficulty in continuing the growth and completed the bidding for the negative territory. Also under pressure were the price of oil. These two factors, as well as alignment of positions before the weekend, the dollar had little support, and he was able to reverse the losses incurred during the day. Click to continue »

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Forex Asia

Monday, September 14th, 2009

index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Nikkei (Nikkei) fell 242.27 points (-2.32%) and closed at 10202.06. Yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds is 1.290 (has fallen from the previous closing on 0.010). Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Haeng Seng (Hang Seng) fell 218.64 points (-1.03%) and is located at 20942.78.

Course

dollar /yen rose today to the level of 90.73. The euro /dollar fell to 1.4514 marks. Support for the dollar has fall in stock indices, oil prices, the depreciation of the riskier instruments such as gold, Australian and New Zealand dollar.

the market say they support the dollar /yen have orders to buy dollars above the level of 90.00, put up players in the market options.

Today, the price of oil during electronic trading in New York fell by 1.04 dollar to the level of 68.25 dollars per barrel. Click to continue »

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The U.S. dollar seems in a state of free fall

Monday, September 14th, 2009

Europe

indices of the Old World grew by an average of 0,5% against the backdrop of positive news for the Chinese economy and the massive revision of the recommendations of securities analysts from major banks and investment companies upwards. In general, at the level of words and opinions can be noted blessed optimism and relaxation at the level of the dynamics of indices and individual securities - nerves of the players stretched to the breaking point.

America

indices of the New World on Friday conducted a rather vague session and eventually closed a decrease in 0,1-0,2%. Investors reacted sluggishly to the generally positive macroeconomic statistics - cumulative impact fatigue and lack of new drivers for growth (leading economic indicators to be relevant as drivers have already lost).

raw materials, currency and so on

industrial metals on the auctions in London on Friday slightly cheaper. The U.S. dollar seems in a state of free fall (or rather say planning because the reduction is not landslide, but gradually) after the breakdown of local support - ahead of the annual minima. Click to continue »

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Experts: Stabilization of the hryvnia exchange rate will help to balance the market of oil

Monday, September 14th, 2009

Projected changes in the national currency rate, its balance against the U.S. dollar will help stabilize the price situation on the Ukrainian market of petroleum products, say experts polled by Interfax-Ukraine .

In the first place, stabilizing the national currency. Do not chaotic swing up and down, namely stabilization, In this case, the situation can predict and influence them, - said the commercial director of network stations KLO Vyacheslav Steshenko.

same opinion Marketing Director of LLC Parallel-M Ltd (Donetsk) Elena Hilienko. A Head of Marketing Eastern resources (Lugansk) Anton Shostak said that political stability will help to reduce the dollar and thus stabilize the market.

In addition, VA Steshenko added that another important factor in calming of internal nefterynka a balanced presentation of information media on the status of various spheres of the economy without exaggeration, focusing on inflation and other negative expectations.
This

director of consulting group A-95 Sergey Kujun believes that the situation in the country can stabilize nefterynke balanced and reasonable position of the concerned ministries and departments.

fuel issue remains the main subject of speculation for the various officials and opposition figures. The first attempt to show his boss a lot of work, the latter acting on the principle, the worse the better, unnecessarily inflaming the situation , - he said.

Anticipating the average price sold mainly in Ukraine marks gasoline A-95 for the second decade of September, a representative of the Eastern resources, believes that it will be within 7,4-7,5 grn /liter and the reason is, in his opinion, will strengthen the national currency.

According to E. Hilienko, the price of A-95 can drop by 20 kopecks. per liter, and DT - by 10 kopecks. The recent decline in international quotations of oil and oil products, as well as a sizeable drop in the U.S. dollar, which occurred on September 8, gives the potential to reduce and Ukrainian fuel retail, - she said.

At the same time, she added that such developments are only possible in the absence of speculative activities in the wholesale market. Click to continue »

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