On Friday, Russia's stock market close to annual highs. RTS index added 2.8%, ending just short of 1200 on, the MICEX index rose by 1.8%. Stocks were leading automakers, banks and steel companies. The key drivers of growth became positive news from China and the movement of exchange rates. Thus, the dollar against the euro was rolled away to a minimum since December last year that supported the commodity markets and the strengthening of the ruble to the currency basket.

strengthening of the ruble has traditionally been positive news for bank stocks, and this time the shot shares of Sberbank (4.8%) and VTB (3.5%). Support for bank shares and had a statement of the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank AG Ulyukaeva about the possibility of reducing the refinancing rate by the end of the year by 1 percentage point (at today's meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank may reduce rates by 0.25 percentage points).

For steel companies were significant factors in statistics from China (the acceleration of growth in industrial production, credit and retail sales in August) and the intention of the authorities of the country to preserve incentives to more sustainable economic recovery. Demand from China's economy remains one of the main factors support for oil and steel companies. Shares TMK, MMK, NLMK added from 5.7% to 8.5%. In the oil and gas securities growth has been much more modest, were better than others Rosneft shares the news about the possibility to use zeroed export duties for East Siberian oil fields since September.

top gainers were shares of automakers - AvtoVAZ (15.2%), Sollers (5.6%) on shares Kamaz MICEX trading suspended twice because of rising prices by more than 30%. Markets continued to win back a message the previous day's intention Rostekhnologii purchased from Troika Dialog 13% of KAMAZ for $ 300-320 million (which means the evaluation of the company three times higher than the market price) to bring its stake to a controlling interest. Support for shares of automobile industry may have had and the decision of GM to sell a consortium of Magna-Sberbank controlling Opel, from which is believed could win the group gases.

I expect to see from the United States was generally good - the index of consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, in September reached a 3-month high, exceeding the consensus forecast. Faster than the consensus forecast has been decreasing stocks of wholesale stores, which clears the opportunity for producers to increase production. At the same time, U.S. indices finished the day a slight decrease, fixing the gain on the week.

The main event, which predicts the opening of today's trading occurred after the closing of the trading session on Russia's stock exchanges - oil futures have sharply fallen in price, roll below $ 70/barr. The fall was about 4%, adjusted downward and prices of metals. On the morning of the Asian indices show differently directed momentum prevails decline. In the minus and U.S. futures (S P500).

Against this background, we expect the opening of today's trading in Russia from breaking down.During the day the relevant statistics is not expected to be published a report on industrial production in the EU. From internal events, in addition to a board meeting CBR, it is worth noting the publication Uralkali IFRS financial statements for the 1P09. The key event of the day should be a statement by U.S. President Barack Obama, which could be said about the plans of the administration to curtail state involvement in the financial sector, but it will take place after the closure of Russia's bidding. Also tonight are expected to presentations by two representatives of the Federal Reserve - Lekera Yellen and with the forecast for the U.S. economy.

onset week will be full of statistic data from the U.S. - inflation, retail sales, industrial production and housing construction. This should determine the movement of markets, including the probability of renewal of annual maxima of Russia's stock market indices.

Click to continue »

previous session

In Friday trading session on Russia's stock markets ended higher: 2.82% RTS, MICEX 1.82%. Against the background of high oil prices and U.S. futures indices investors continued buying domestic securities. As leaders of growth once again escaped the action of the banking sector. Nevertheless, in the evening, after the release of statistics from the U.S. and the mixed opening of American sites, Russia's stock market retreated somewhat from day maximum values.

Oil and gas: Gazprom 0.67%, Lukoil 0.39%, 1.60% Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz 1.18%. Banking Sector: Savings 4.78%, VTB 3.55%. Sector-ferrous metallurgy: 1.91% MMC Norilsk Nickel, Polyus Gold 4.22%.

European indexes finished the auctions modest growth: British FTSE100 0.48%, German DAX 0.52%.

U.S. exchanges closed in the red zone. On Friday, released the following macroeconomic statistics: sentiment index according to University of Michigan in September rose to 70.2 points against the projected increase to 65.0 points; wholesale stores in July fell by 1.4% against expected by analysts to reduce this figure to 1.0%. However, despite the positive data collected on the local maxima of the American indexes failed. Moreover, began declining U.S. futures indices and quotations of oil (down below 70 dollars per bar.). Nevertheless, the decline of American sites on Friday was not as great as could be. The result: DowJones -0.23%, SnP500 -0.14%, Nasdaq -0.15%.

Before opening

Asian session demonstrates the dynamics of differently directed: Japanese Nikkei225 -2.47%, the Chinese Shanghai Composite 0.48%, the Australian Index All Ordinaries - 1.03%. U.S. futures SnP500 -0.89%. Quotes of the ruble now stands at a 30.55 (Forex). Oil brand Brent 67.00 (-1.02%). A pair of Euro /USD. traded near 1.45.

Recommendations

expect a negative opening of domestic sites. On the one hand, the U.S. indexes on Friday closed down only a marginal decline during the Asian session, the Chinese indices show positive dynamics - these factors suggest that the apparent decline of Russia's stock market is unlikely to be too negative. On the other hand, quotations of oil fell below 70 dollars per bar .., futures on SnP 500 Index retreated from the maximum values shown in the previous session, almost 2% general overheating of the market - all this speaks in favor of a more significant reduction . We recommend investors to reduce positions in securities - likely reducing the indices not only today but in the next few days. We see no serious reasons for optimism and a neutral /negative look at the market in the coming days.

Expected data for today: 08:30 Industrial Production (Japan), 13:00 Industrial Production (Euro Zone).

Click to continue »