September 15th, 2009

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Greatest interest to investors today showed Securities Rosneft, Gazprom and LUKoil

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

RTS has updated most of the year

Russia's stock market during the day showed the upward momentum. Block makrostatistiki Europe and the U.S. does not have investors time to think. So, out the positive data on retail sales, producer price index, industrial stocks in the U.S., the index of economic expectations in Germany. As a result, by the end of the day the RTS index reached 1,224.33 points (2.52%), updating the highs this year, the MICEX index was 1203.97 points (2.47%).

top gainers were companies in the financial sector, industry MICEX index added 3.63% Finance, as well as oil and gas sector, an industry MICEX oil and gas added 2,67%. In particular, Sberbank rose 4.19%, surpassing the mark of 61 rubles. We view this paper are still cautious on such multipliers as price /earnings Paper bought out considerably as compared with the banks of the BRIC countries. Formal factors leading to increased interest in the paper, such as, for example, makrostatistika, positive dynamics of the European banking sector, only increases the technical risk reduction quotations paper. Interest of investors in oil and gas sector because of persistent weak oil market shows continued stability of the stock market. Greatest interest to investors today showed Securities Rosneft (5,40%), Gazprom (2,50%), Lukoil (2,48%). Dynamics of shares of Rosneft seems more than justified. Zeroing in export duties for oil fields in Eastern Siberia, which may already be held in September, will have a positive impact, primarily on cash flows Rosneft. We see no reason for the delay in shifting the company of oil from the Vankor field in the East. Part EBITDA in 2010, the growth rate could reach 2.7 billion dollars

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The Ukrainian government has reorganized the union Massandra in the state concern

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

Ukrainian government reorganized the National Industrial and agricultural association Massandra (ARC), one of the largest wine companies of Ukraine, the State Concern.

This is provided for the Cabinet of Ministers № 972 dated September 9, 2009.

Government also approved the statute of the state concern National industrial and agricultural association Massandara. He suggests that the company would report to the Cabinet of Ministers and it will include the company: Livadia, Gurzuf, Tavrida, Alushta Malorechenskoye, Marine, Veselovskoe, Perch, Privitne.

As reported in June this year, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has signed the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on the structure, powers and peculiarities of the legal and economic regime of the property complex of the national industrial and agricultural associations Massandra. Click to continue »

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Resistance to first-level pair GBP / USD is at 1.6700

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

EUR /USD

continuing upward trend. Resistance of the first level is at around 1.4652 - a maximum of yesterday, more couple will head to 1.4700 - a psychological mark, the overcoming of which would pave the way to 1.4800. Support the first level is located at 1.4514, at least yesterday, more couple will head to 1.4500. A distant goal - 1.4400.

Resistance levels: 1.4652, 1.4700, 1.4800

Support levels: 1.4514, 1.4500, 1.4400

GBP /USD

first resistance level is at 1.6700, then the breakout level can rise up to 1.6741 - a maximum of 11.09, then to be 1.6800. A distant goal - 1.6900. Support for the first level is at 1.6600, the break level would send a pair of 1.6589 - 23.6% Fibo further possible reduction in the area 1.6520 - at least the day before, then support would be 1.6500 - a psychological level, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibo. A distant goal - 1.6400.

Resistance levels: 1.6700, 1.6741, 1.6800, 1.6900

Support levels: 1.6600, 1.6589, 1.6520, 1.6500, 1.640

USD /JPY

first resistance level is at 91.43 - 161.8% fibo further couple headed for 92.00 - psychological resistance. Click to continue »

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Tymoshenko: Politics NBU has become the main cause of recession in Ukraine in 2009

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

Politics National Bank became the main cause of recession in Ukraine in 2009, said Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko at the presentation of the state budget for 2010

Tymoshenko stressed that the 110 billion UAH, issued by the National Bank as the refinancing was enough for the resumption of lending of the economy and cover cash gaps due to the outflow of deposits.

Instead, the funds went to the currency market, where the same banks in exchange speculation earn 3-4% per day - said the Premier. Tymoshenko also noted that the established National Bank discount rate and the refinancing rate is not economically justified.

Explanation of NBU that high inflation did not give him an opportunity to reduce the refinancing rate, has no economic justification. Click to continue »

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Exchange rate of dollars saved without changes - day review of cash markets

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

15.09.09 condition at 14:00 the Kiev Banks and Items of currency exchange (CEMs) are most often purchase 1 USD at the price of 8.5000 UAH, that is no different from yesterday's rate and the offer price 8.5500 UAH, that it is cheaper to 5.00 kopeks.

Offers

Banks and Brokers to purchase 1 USD fluctuate within 8.2500 - 8.5110 UAH.

best offer to buy 1 USD at this time set in the following Banks and Brokers:
8.5110 UAH - Arsenal;;
8.5107 UAH - Synthesis;; Inter;;

Offers

Banks and Brokers to sell 1 USD fluctuate within 8.5290 - 8.7000 UAH.

best offer on sale of 1 USD at this time set in the following Banks and Brokers:
8.5290 UAH - Artada;;
8.5299 UAH - Akroprom;;

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Today

Banks and Brokers most often buy 1 EUR price 12.4000 UAH, that is different from yesterday's rate and the offer price 12.5000 UAH, that is cheaper to 10.00 kopeks.

Offers

Banks and Brokers to buy 1 EUR ranging 12.0000 - 12.4300 UAH.

best offer to buy 1 EUR at this time set in the following Banks and Brokers:
12.4300 UAH - Akroprom;; Arsenal;;
12.4100 UAH - Legbank;; SDUSHOR-Kiev ;;

Offers

Banks and Brokers to sell 1 EUR ranging 12.4780 - 12.9000 UAH. Click to continue »

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At the Asian stock markets rebound after weak observed unintelligible beginning of the week

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

The American stock market (SP 500 0.63%) rewrote the maximum level since the beginning of the year. Negative opening, followed amid the threat of a trade war between the U.S. and China, was used by most players as an opportunity to build long positions. Increased attraction to risk relentlessly pushing share prices up, despite the absence of significant factors. The only more or less reasonable explanation of the available growth expectations are publishing environment favorable figures on retail sales, while held in by a number of dignitaries were very positive, in general, not so much.

So the head of the FBI San Francisco Janet Yellen recorded himself in the camp of those who are of the view that economic recovery will be weak and slow. In her view, the weakness of the economy is more dangerous than the probability of loss of control over the pressure of prices. Also spoke to reporters, President Barack Obama on the anniversary since the collapse of investment bank Lehman brothers. In his speech he noted that he was inclined to see the project approved by legislators to reform the financial sector, which will help prevent future similar to the current crisis. Reform implies a tightening of the rules of transparency and accountability, and increased performance requirements of leverage and liquidity, as well as the empowerment of a new regulatory structure with broad powers in the event of cases of too big to fail. The latter can cause the opposite effect, reflected the deterioration of discipline members of the financial system, has decided not to accept Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Leker. Click to continue »

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Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR / GBP

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

 

Currency pair EUR /GBP at the end of the second quarter was replaced by anger at the mercy of interrupting a three-month downward movement. Many wondered how stable the new upward movement and what are its prospects in the medium term.

From a technical point of view on the graph the pair attract the attention of 4 resistant line - actually the trend line (labeled brown), as well as two lines, which (as shown price history) course is very inclined to return (indicated by green and orange). We should also mention the purple line, which for years served as a resistance, and then another for almost a year - support.

Given the fact that the target levels specified by us three lines (orange, green and brown) for the next month, is remarkably consistent with the levels offered by the Fibonacci fan, then from a position of technical analysis it makes sense for them to navigate. Ie pessimistic scenario, with support for the corrective course will provide the level of 0,86, and in case of penetration rate is likely to be a long time to consolidate along the purple line support from a mark 0,85.

In an optimistic scenario, which we are more inclined, the immediate aim of growth can provide the level of 0,89, and in the case of penetration of the median line, Fibonacci fan, this top level has a chance to become the new support. Click to continue »

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Kommersant: National Bank allowed to pay bills

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

National Bank decided not to apply sanctions against banks that violate its ban on early repayment of debt, if the institution solvent. This opportunity is available for Alfa-Bank, bought the investment presented to put the bond. Now to repay their debt securities will be all the big banks with foreign capital, care about their reputation, experts say.

Alfa-Bank is fully satisfied the requirements of the holders of five-year bonds of series F (to 290 million UAH) and G (for 310 million UAH), presented to the offer on September 14. Bank paid interest income on time and in full, and fulfilled all obligations on early redemption of bonds in accordance with the terms of the issue - the press service of Alfa Bank. Yield securities was 16% and 20% respectively. Offer for Series G foreseen quarterly since March 2008, the series F - annually in September.

According to market participants, the series G bonds were purchased by Alfa-bank investors in March 2009, and the volume of securities F-series on the market did not exceed several tens of millions of hryvnia. Therefore, the bank was not a problem to repay the remaining outstanding bonds, said a senior analyst at SG Astrum Investment Management Sergey Fursa. After the restructuring of Eurobonds for $ 1 billion liquidity risk in the bank declined, and the redemption of the local market, we understand that the essential problem for the bank was not - said a senior analyst at SG Phoenix Capital Maria Mayboroda.

Ransom Alfa Bank debt securities on offer occurred, despite the ban on the NBU did not repay the bonds ahead of more than 50% of the nominal value, if the bank has a loss. Violation of this rule decree number 421 director of banking regulation and supervision Basil Pasichnik received the right to apply measures of influence until the introduction of an interim administration in the bank, forced reorganization or revocation of the license and the initiation of bankruptcy proceedings. Click to continue »

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The interest from major investors are still aimed at Russia's stock banks

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

Dynamics shares of the Savings Bank is an indicator of the economy

Following the last trading session of the U.S. stock indices closed in positive territory lung, despite the deterioration in relations with China. Dow Jones rose to 0.22%, S P500 0.63%, NASDAQ 0.52%. Better the market feel securities of financial companies.

The opposite pattern can be observed in Asian markets. Support indices have only a mining and metals companies, while the financial sector dominated by a negative mood.

Futures on RTS Index (RIZ9) during an evening trading session up 0.5%, having played in the stock markets open on Tuesday. Futures on the SP 500 is symbolically reduced to 0.1%, but still retains the position near the local maxima.

On the background of the lack of significant trends from the U.S. index, the basic mood of the domestic market will be determined by commodity platforms. The November futures for Brent crude falling to 0.4%, Light -0.1%, putting pressure on oil companies. To date, the shares of Rosneft grow by 0.9%, 0.3% LUKOIL, Surgutneftegaz 0.6%.

missed the positions of the black gold, bulls are trying to win back the steel platforms. Nickel adds more than 1%, aluminum 0.5% copper, 0.2%. Within the established medium of positive trends in Russia's steel companies, added 0.5 l of 1%.

interest from major investors are still aimed at Russia's stock banks. Sberbank is again a leader chips as for the growth and day-trafficking. The growth futures for shares of Sberbank (SRZ9) against the backdrop of growth of the contract on the dollar (SiZ9), which makes it possible to open intermarket spread professional participants.

For the second tier stocks basic Newsmaker-s remain the company KAMAZ and AvtoVAZ be added to the current 20% and 5%respectively. Yesterday, the president of OJSC AvtoVAZ Igor Komarov signed decrees on the abolition of part-time working week and to optimize the number of heads that will positively affect the overall performance efficiency of the collective, and as a result of continued growth of quotations.

In the afternoon, is expected to yield data on retail sales (16:30), the producer price index (16:30), inventories (18:30).

We reserve the recommendation of the market - keep the long positions.

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Dollar exchange rate is saved without changes - the morning review of cash markets

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

15.09.09 condition at 10:00 the Kiev most banks and exchange offices (CEMs) have kept the course of sale and purchase 1 USD at the level of yesterday. Buying rate was 8.5000 UAH, sales - 8.6000 UAH.

Offers

Banks and Brokers to purchase 1 USD fluctuate within 8.4000 - 8.5250 UAH.

best offer to buy 1 USD at this time set in the following Banks and Brokers:
8.5250 UAH - Akroprom;; Nick;;
8.5200 UAH - IMEXBANK KB;; FUIB KF ;; Poltava-Bank KB;; Financial Initiative;; Absolute;; Arsenal;; Artada;;

Offers

Banks and Brokers to sell 1 USD fluctuate within 8.5800 - 8.7000 UAH.

best offer on sale of 1 USD at this time set in the following Banks and Brokers:
8.5800 UAH - Dr M Bank;; Akroprom;;
8.5900 UAH - Aktiv-Bank ;; BG Bank;; Synthesis;; Arsenal;; EURO;;

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Today, most Banks and Brokers kept buying and selling rate of 1 EUR to the level of yesterday. Buying rate was 12.4000 UAH, sales - 12.6000 UAH.

Offers

Banks and Brokers to buy 1 EUR ranging 12.0000 - 12.4600 UAH.

best offer to buy 1 EUR at this time set in the following Banks and Brokers:
12.4600 UAH - Akroprom;; Nick;;
12.4500 UAH - EUROGASBANK CO;; Poltava Bank KB;;

Offers

Banks and Brokers to sell 1 EUR ranging 12.5400 - 12.9000 UAH. Click to continue »

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