September 16th, 2009

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Investors' appetite for risk lagging behind their faith in the coming economic boom

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

investors' appetite for risk is behind them as their own faith in the coming economic upturn, as evidenced by the September surge of their interest in cash and reduce investment in equities.

Such a conclusion is made head of the European Office of Strategic Corporate Investments Banc of America Securities - Merrill Lynch Gary Baker after the September by Banc of America Securities - Merrill Lynch survey of asset managers.

According to the survey, investors are optimistic about the end of a global recession and further smooth, but not quick growth of the global economy. Meanwhile, although 72% of respondents see signs of economic growth worldwide, the same percentage of respondents expects that within the next 12 months, economic growth and inflation will still be below the average trend indicators noted in the study.

According to the poll in September, the average percentage of cash in portfolios rose to 4,1% of total assets, compared with 3.7% a month earlier, when the lowest observed value of this index since July 2007.

In absolute numbers, in September the number of managers with a high proportion of cash in portfolios rose to 10% from August to 3%. The number of managers with high equity stake dropped to 27% from 34% a month earlier. Investors have reduced investment in 8 out of 11 branch segments. A noted in August timid move towards cyclical stock sectors of the economy has changed direction. The people surveyed have reduced positions in sectors such as the degree of processing of primary raw materials, industrial companies and production of consumer goods - the study says.

Investors are united in anticipation of global economic growth, but suggest that it will be below trend values and does not bring with it excessive inflationary pressures, - said a leading strategist on international corporate investment Banc of America Securities - Merrill Lynch, Michael Hartnett. Click to continue »

Tomenko appealed to the Board of the NBU with the request to reduce the salary Stelmakh

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Deputy Chairman Mykola Tomenko BP appealed to the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine on information regarding the significant increase in salaries leaders of the National Bank.

Tomenko noted that in accordance with the law On the National Bank of Ukraine NBU Council approve the estimated revenues and expenditures and the NBU report on its performance (Section 4 and 7 of Part 1. Art. 9). In his address, Vice-Speaker of the National Bank of Ukraine has asked the Council to ascertain the facts regarding the increase in half to two times the salary of the senior management of the NBU and clarification regarding the appropriateness and reasonableness of such an increase in the economic crisis.

Tomenko noted that, according to the law on state budget-2009, expenses for salaries of civil servants were reduced by 10% compared with 2008 is also the vice-speaker writes that on March 3 BP has adopted a resolution On measures to streamline the individual costs of the State Budget of Ukraine, which, inter alia, requested to halve salary managers of state power. In addition, pursuant to this proxy Cabinet Order of 18 March 2009 number 240 has reduced by half the salary of the Prime Minister, deputy prime ministers and ministers, and in the draft state budget-2010 is proposed to halve the salaries of people's deputies.

The Vice President assumes the leadership of the National Bank, which, as we know, is in pre-retirement age, increasing his salary to the astronomical size, expecting to receive a pension equal to 80%. Unfortunately, the Constitutional Court, on presentation of 59 deputies of the Party of Regions, recently buried the last year the government's decision to limit the maximum size of pensions for certain categories of citizens. Click to continue »

Forex - in the European session

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Ksetra DAX (Xetra DAX) rose 51.21 points (0.91%) and at the level of 5680.19. Index of the London Stock Exchange Futsi 100 (FTSE 100) rose by 72.75 points (1.44%) and at the level of 5114.88. Index of the Paris Stock Exchange, BTB 40 (CAC 40) rose to 53.76 points (1.43%) and at the level of 3805.97. Opening of the American stock indexes are now expected to top.

The euro /dollar rose in European session to a level 1.4710, the highest since December last year. However, subsequently adjusted the rate to a mark 1.4661. It is noted that the dollar remains under pressure due to high demand for more risky instruments. Dollar in this case serves as a currency, which take credit for it and buy these risky instruments.

Some correction of the euro /dollar is linked to the anticipation of the publication today of a large number of important economic data in the United States.

pressure on the dollar has increased the stock indexes, precious metals courses, courses in Australia and New Zealand dollar, as well as the low level of market interest rates on the dollar.

Course

dollar /yen continued to fall and reached a level of 90.11. The euro /yen has fallen to a mark of 132.45. Support for the yen today's remarks have a new Minister of Finance of Japan Fuji. In his view, the strong yen is an advantage for the Japanese economy.

Fujii said that fluctuations of the yen in forex market are not unduly harsh. In such circumstances, he sees no need to conduct foreign exchange intervention.

final value of the consumer price index (CPI) for August in Italy, 0.3% forthe month, 0.1% for the year (forecast 0.4% per month, 0.2% for the year, a preliminary value of 0.4% per month, 0.2% per year). Click to continue »

Better the market once the oil and gas and financial sectors: VTB (12.98%), Transneft (3,5%), Gazprom (3,03%), Rosneft (3.01%)

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Positive dynamics of trading on the stock market persists. Better the market once again, oil and gas and financial sectors. Growth of the market better show VTB shares (12.98%), Transneft (3,50%), Gazprom (3,03%), Rosneft (3,01%). Little worse than the market shares show the dynamics of the Savings Bank (1.06%). In general, growth stocks VTB and Sberbank difficult to justify, the first bank is unprofitable, the other paper - much overbought.

Despite the data published yesterday a report on API of oil reserves, shows an increase in reserves of crude oil to 0.63 million barrels of oil quotes continue to rise, breaking the mark of $ 71 Thus, today's report on oil reserves, 18:30 MSCs from the U.S. Department of Energy could have a significant impact on oil market conditions and, accordingly, to create a negative background on Russia's stock market. Statistics Consumer Price Index in the U.S. went out on the whole, neutral. Consumer Price Index CPI in August rose by 0.4%, forecast 0.3%, while Core CPI came in under expectations, 0,1%.

However, the internal news background remains positive. The adopted amendments to the projected federal budget for 2010-2012. In particular, increase in income due to higher forecast oil prices to about $ 60 per barrel will be directed to reducing the federal deficit, not increase spending. Also, the first vice-premier Igor Shuvalov, today made a statement that the VEB would not nationalize the companies who have taken loans against their shares and does not perform for him before the VEB. This news has a positive character for the stock market, the market is convinced that Russia's government will continue to reform and reverting to socialism will not. For investments we continue to allocate securities Gazprom and RusHydro.

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Umansky: The restructuring of debts of Naftogaz of Ukraine and improve your company

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Expected debt restructuring of Naftogaz Ukraine will improve the ratings of both Ukraine and the company itself, according to Acting Minister of Finance Igor Umansky. He said this to journalists in the Cabinet of Ministers.

I am confident that the restructuring of debts of Naftogaz will lead this year to improve the ratings of both Ukraine and Naftogaz, and, as a consequence, there will be an additional opportunity to enter the investment market - said Umansky.

However, he noted that Naftogaz Ukraine has not yet approached the Ministry of Finance with the final information on debt restructuring.

Reportedly, Naftogaz Ukraine from September 14, will hold a series of negotiations with creditors in the restructuring of bilateral debt, which also include Eurobonds, the repayment of which - September 30, 2009. Click to continue »

A fundamental review of the Forex market on 16/09/2009

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Despite the abundance of positive makrostatistiki, the U.S. dollar failed to strengthen against European currencies. The maximum was reached at around 1.4685 the minimum value fixed at 1.4560. It seems the time has come when the dollar has a favorable statistics do not support, but rather the opposite pressure. Investors, reassured further proof that the economic situation starts to level off once again begin to be interested in riskier assets by transferring funds in equities and commodities.

Index traditional sector of the U.S. economy Dow Jones industrial average rose by 0,59% to 9.683,41 points. The broader index Standard Poor s 500 added 0,31% to 1.052,63 points. Technological Nasdaq Composite Index rose to 0,52% to 2.102,64 points. Favorable statistics from the U.S. however, was neutralized by the report of the American Petroleum Institute ( API), which states that for the past week oil reserves in the United States increased by 631,000 barrels against the projected reduction by 2,4 million barrels. Click to continue »

Support from the macroeconomic data from the U.S. made it possible for the index MSCI Asia Pacific Index to rise to the heights of the regular

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Stock Market U.S.

increase in sales of retail chains in the United States overcomes the August figures for the past three years, gave another boost to the growth of American stock indexes. Additional support for growth in sales was the government's program to offset the cost of second-hand car buying new equipment. Morgan Stanley, in turn, increased the forecast for economic growth in the third quarter of this year. Macroeconomic statistics, therefore, reduced the fears of investors about the limited participation of consumers in recovery, leaving her in the position of depending mainly on the volume of state orders.

European stock market

European stock markets finished in positive territory on Tuesday thanks to an encouraging trading data on retail sales in the U.S. in August. Pan-European index of blue chip on the FTSEurofirst 300 rose 0.08 percent to 991.76 points. The volume of retail sales in the U.S. in August showed the most intensive growth in the past three and a half years, the Commerce Department said. In the banking sector, HSBC shares have risen in price by 1,6 percent, Societe Generale - at 1.0 percent, Banco Santander - at 1.0 percent.

FTSE-100 23.28 0.46%
DAX 8.74 0.16%
CAC40 21.60 0.58 %

Asian stock market

support of the macroeconomic data from the U.S. made it possible for the index MSCI Asia Pacific Index to rise to successive heights, with additional support from the commodity platforms. Stock quotes Canon Inc. grew by almost 5% in trading in Tokyo after Nomura Holdings Inc. recommended to purchase shares of one of the leading manufacturers of optical equipment. National Australia Bank Ltd .- largest in terms of assets Bank of Australia rose by 2,8% in Sydney trading after rising in the index of leading economic indicators.

NIKKEI 225 15.56 0.15%
HANG SENG INDEX 29.79 0.14%
SHANGHAI SE A SHARE INDX 7.28 0.23%
SHANGHAI SE B SHARE INDX 1.27 0.62%
KOSPI INDEX 18.49 1.13%

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In America, growth was observed across the spectrum of securities, other than the consumer sector

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Statistics of the United States and influenced the course of share trading in Europe, which until the publication of macroeconomic data on the U.S. declined due to internal statistics of confidence in the economy of Germany. At the end of the day pan-European Dow was able to grow by 0,5%, in the black were telecommunications companies in the red car manufacturers and retail sector, banks were moving different direction.

In America, growth was observed on the full range of securities, other than the consumer sector, the interest to which the expectation of the end of the recession may be starting to wane in favor of riskier assets, as well as companies from the health sector, whose income could potentially be limited by planned for the new president of the U.S. Click to continue »

Machines will cease to wear

UK minimized car insurance, taking into account wear and raise prices for policies …

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Justice Department and the State Property Fund approved a new edition of the method of calculating depreciation depreciation of cars. Now the insurers will have to pay car owners compensation for damaged vehicles without regard to their wear. The new rule will affect not only cars older than two years, as previously, but also those who are over five to seven years.

Such an innovation in the near future will lead to higher tariffs on the hull and avtograzhdanke at 10-20% and will affect customers of almost all domestic insurance companies.

new version of the Methods of Merchandising examination and evaluation of wheeled vehicles, approved by joint order of the State Property Fund and Ministry of Justice № 724/16740, fundamentally changes the previously applied mechanisms calculate depreciation of cars.

Until now, the damage caused as a result of damage to the machine, usually evaluated according to its depreciation depreciation, which number after the second year of operation. Now, on cars made in CIS countries, there would be no wear up to five full years of service on foreign cars - up to seven. The only exceptions are cases where the mileage of the vehicle twice the normative - spoke about the innovations of the head of retail sales of the insurance group TAS Anna Morozova.

Thus, calculating the amount of compensation, the UK will have to pay 100%-ing the cost of requiring replacement of parts and assemblies, even if it will go to renovate the badly battered, second-hand cars. According to our calculations, this will lead to an increase in the average loss of Casco and avtograzhdanke about 20-25%, - noted the director of insurance UK Nastya, Sergei Parfenyuk.

however, affect innovation is not at all, and many insurers selling hull can escape only by a slight fright. After Casco - is a voluntary form of insurance, but because the use of new techniques is not binding. As before, each insurance company will apply its own rules for calculating depreciation, by writing them in the treaties. While experts admit that some of the UK will more actively promote the policies of hull, providing for payments without taking into account depreciation of vehicles. First, the cost of such policies by about 15-50% higher. Secondly, it will give them the opportunity to avoid a potential conflict with policyholders who resented the size of compensation.

Most companies will use the state procedure. Indeed, in the case of judicial review for the calculation of compensation would apply exactly it. As a result, according to preliminary calculations, the average market rate for the hull to increase by 10%, - said General Director SC QBE Ukraine Oleg Sosnovski.

Most likely, the companies will focus on the clients insurance programs without regard to wear, - agreed with his colleague Head of insurance Land Transport Management Transport Insurance UK Alfa Insurance Alexander Vakh.

At the same time, a number of companies, despite the obvious risks, keep in its portfolio for a cheap insurance policy, taking into account depreciation. Click to continue »

Talk of recession and the end of cheap liquidity led investors to forget about global imbalances and the danger of second wave

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Tuesday, September 15, trading on Russia's stock market were marked by the growth of quotations on a wide range of papers, the major indices moved up over almost the entire session, only the end of the session there was a slight profit-taking. Supported by bullish sentiment sounded on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean of the conclusion of a recession. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that in June 2009 became the first month of the crisis, but to talk about the full withdrawal from the crisis would be for the third quarter. Later, much the same assessment of the situation in the U.S. economy has given Fed Chairman Bernanke, B. (see Foreign markets). External background and not interfere with the continuation of shopping: growth was observed in most stock markets, there has been a rebound in oil prices, did not disappoint investors and published in the evening in the U.S. statistics. By closing MICEX grew by 2.47% to 1 203.97 points, RTS index has added 2,52% and amounts to 1,224.33 points. Thus, Russia's indexes almost entirely played the heavy losses suffered after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, collapsing financial markets one year ago today: September 15, 2008 the MICEX Index closing at 1067.45 points was, the RTS index 1,277.60 points.

Against the background of prevailing positive sentiment prevailed in the majority of purchases industry segments, however, growth rates varied markedly quotations. In leaders - again, the banking sector (banking MICEX FNL 3,63%), led by shares of VTB Bank (5.57%) ordinary shares of Sberbank confidently stepped above 60 rubles (4.06%), preferred a little behind (2.26% ). Oil and gas on the background of the rebound in oil prices also looked very convincing, oil and gas MICEX OG 2,67%, the best in the sector dynamics in Rosneft shares (5.4%). In the power sector (MICEX PWR 1,82%) rally was not as convincing as in previous days, the shares RusHydro was added during the day more than 4%, to close back into neutral territory (0.18%) after the announcement minimstra energy Shmatko on that the company can place an additional issue for 10% of shares to finance the restoration of the Sayan-Shushenskaya GES. Continued growth in the metallurgical sector, MICEX MM 1,42%. Much worse than the market looked Telecommunications (MICEX TLC 0,08%) and engineering (MICEX MNF -2,7%), where investors recorded profits after rapid rally past session.

Expectations for today : today Russia's market, we expect another positive session, a strong statistics, the widespread talk of recession and the end of cheap liquidity led investors to forget, at least for a time, the global imbalances, the danger of the second wave and other such boring things. MICEX will try to update an intraday maximum of 2009 in the area of 1 225 points. We, however, suggest not to forget how quickly in the current circumstances may change in market sentiment.

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