In Friday trading on Russia's stock market held in the volatile regime, reflecting the volatility in commodity and currency markets. Bidding opened with a decrease in quotations on a moderately negative external background - reduction of U.S. indexes on the eve, the strengthening of the dollar, negative dynamics in the Asian exchanges, cheapening oil. Nevertheless, by midday indexes turned upward after Europe and U.S. futures. But by the end of the day increased volatility in the foreign exchange market led to profit taking in stocks, as a result of Russia's indices closed with moderate growth, but lower than daytime highs. MICEX Index added 0.27%, RTS index - 1.15%.
top gainers were shares of energy companies - Mosenergo (15.6%), InterRAO (7.8%), FSK (5%), more expensive generating companies. One of the reasons for the growth could be a statement of the head FST of possible tariff increases for FGC in 2010, more than 30% with the move to RAB and expectations of a more substantial increase in tariffs for generation companies, as scheduled earlier than 5%. More expensive and steel companies - Novolipetsk Steel (3.8%), TMK (4.4%), Severstal (4.3%). In bank stocks there will be no dynamics - VTB has risen in price by 5.5%, while Sberbank dropped by 2.2%, and the Renaissance - 3%. Probably, many market participants are hoping for further reductions in the discount price of VTB to Sberbank, which, in our opinion, is not entirely justified.
At the weekend the head of Sberbank, Gref said at a forum in Sochi, in the case of the adoption of stock option program, the bank will redeem their shares from the market. Recall, review of Bank's Supervisory Board option program was postponed last week until the next meeting. Also, the media, citing a source in the Supervisory Board of Bank reported that in the option program Sberbank redeem not less than 1% of its shares, but the deputy president of Bank of A. Karamzin, denied the report, saying it is too large sum. Although the parameters option program are unknown, but certainly a statement about the possibility of redemption of shares is a positive signal to the market. Also sounded optimistic statements by Mr. Gref that profits in 2010 will be much higher than in 2009, that the bank intends to 2-3 years to realize he had received as collateral non-core assets, and a 5-year horizon - to return bad loans. Also the head of Federal Financial Markets Service Vladimir Milovidov said that a few months will be ready a new mechanism of SPO, which is currently being developed within the framework of the upcoming program of depositary receipts of Sberbank. Thus, plans to deploy receipts until the end of the year, which does not exclude the leadership of the Savings Bank, may become a reality.
Today external background for opening Russia's market neutral. U.S. indices closed on Friday, weak growth (0.2-0.4%), in the absence of statistics, the market reacted to the increase of investment banks recommendations on shares of several companies. On the morning of the U.S. futures in a weak minus, in the Asian venues - the dynamics of different directions with a tendency towards a moderate decrease. Oil slightly cheaper, while remaining above $ 70/barr. Against this background, we look forward to opening levels near the close on Friday. The day is expected very stingy on external events - a public holiday in Japan (Day of Senior Citizens), in Europe, statistics are not published in the United States only at the end of the day will come index of leading indicators.
onset week will be very interesting - September 22-23, to the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the U.S. Federal Reserve, which may sound opinions on the current situation and the transition to the exit strategy. The highlight of the week will be the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, which also claims waiting for an exit strategy from the politics of emergency anti-crisis measures (judging by the recent preparatory meeting of finance ministers, leaders of major world economies are not yet ready to curtail the stimulus package, preferring to wait for a more sustainable economic recovery, but gradually preparing markets for this idea), regulation of bank capital and bank bonus. From the U.S. statistics this week are data on housing sales, orders for durable goods and the index of consumer confidence. In the absence of negative surprises, the growth of stock markets in parallel with the weakening of the dollar may continue, reflecting the excess global liquidity and market optimism about the macroeconomic and corporate profits.
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